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But the agreement is not global - it specifically states only US exclusivity. I'm also not going to get excited about the potential revenue until I read the fine print (or any print for that matter as we have been told nothing - which makes me wonder why).
Show me what the potential royalty / licensing revenue is, and then I will tell you if it is good for IGXT. Given Zerbe's past performance on business deals, I'm going to remain healthily cautious.
And to whom ever asked the question - no I don't think Zerbe is deliberately deceitful. He is just painfully paranoid to the point of his hesitating when you ask him what his name is. He just refuses to communicate - huge problem for anyone, but especially for a CEO.
The anything else is there are zero details - as usual from Zerbe. Even this morning's press release
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/intelgenx-announces-update-to-settlement-of-us-patent-litigation-related-to-forfivo-xlr-2014-11-26
doesn't give any real info about the deal. All it states is that:
Under the terms of the settlement, Wockhardt has been granted the rights, with effect from January 15, 2018, to be the exclusive marketer and distributor of an authorized generic of Forfivo XL® in the U.S.
What does that mean exactly?!?!? Will they be a full out competitor to Forfivo (not good news since Edgemont can't seem to find their own dick in the dark), or will Wockhardt have to pay a royalty as part of this settlement? We don't know.
It also seems to be only for the US - is that what Zerbe is referencing as greater exclusivity? That the only generic competition will be within the US? Not that it matters much because 4 years in they still don't have an international partner for marketing Forfivo outside the US - but what would stop someone other than Wockhardt from introducing another generic outside the US?
Finally - and most concerning to me is - what does this say about the proprietary nature of the technology? How strong is the technology, and their related patents? Why would you settle if your patents are strong - unless it is a way to gain a marketing partner (but who makes the product?). This was not an easy product to get approved, it required pretty extensive and specific testing to show the time release worked so as not to cause the well known seizures that occur when Bupropion is in the blood at too high a level. I have stated from day one that it was this ability to control the seizures that told me the IGXT technology worked. Now they are caving in on protecting that technology / patent - not good news (but I will wait to hopefully hear the full story next week - although I'm not going to hold my breathe on getting the truth, given we are talking about what to me has become the deceitful Dr. Zerbe).
IGXT PR says they did not ask for the trading halt
Maybe Zerbe got smart and decided to finally take retirement. It will be years before real profits start from any of the 3 nearest items they have in the basket for revenue (450 / Migraine / 1st PAR product).
If he actually found someone to give him a fair price, he should take it. Let's all read the fine print though about the price now vs. what they might build into the agreement related to future earnings.
I'm cautiously optimistic - while reserving a healthy amount of caution - I mean we are talking about Zerbe here.
Can someone repost the link - thanks.
You either don't understand the actual status of the migraine issue - or you are trying to scare people.
Either way really pretty sad!
Can't say it was a good report, but it was better than I was expecting.
Still think it will take so long for this to show meaningful price appreciation, Zerbe will be so old the only benefit he can look forward to is being able to buy high priced Depends rather than the Walmart knockoffs.
Forfivo issues have been on the execution side, not the product side.
From today's numbers they are still capturing less than 3% of the total high dose Bupropion market - and they not only have the best product, they have the only single dose product. So there is no reason they shouldn't be able to increase sales. As bad as Zerbe / Edgemont have been on this (we are on our third year now), I was encouraged by the fact that the royalty for this past quarter was well over $100,000 (and as reported that is double the year before quarter). At less than 3% of the market, if they have finally figured out how to market this thing $1M+ a quarter is very doable (remember the original projection by Zerbe for 2014 was $7M in royalties).
Still think he turns into a mental midget once he takes off the lab coat and progress on the business side is still pathetic - but they are moving in the right direction. I also really liked the patent approvals.
Yes they do mention the Migraine drug, particularly an EU registration.
I suggest you just read the report yourself.
Nice to see Zerbe teaming up with such financially strong companies:
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/redhill-biopharma-reports-results-third-113000532.html
which is why you didn't win the world cup.
go Germany!!!
We should expect a bad report tomorrow.
It has been Zerbe's MO to try and pump the stock up with what he thinks is 'good' news, prior to releasing bad earnings data. That is why we saw the Schizophrenia study results, and that pathetic pump piece last week.
The man is an absolute s-bag.
Plus no sales to speak of - no CEO - no clue business wise!
It's not just the money, it's knowing how easy it would be to get this company going (and the stock price up). They have a great technology, and Zerbe also knows how to build the production piece so as to be vertically integrated (read better profit margins). But there is just such a giant disconnect once he takes off that lab coat.
The issue on the Migraine is that they did submit a fully tested product to the FDA - the problem is the FDA challenged them on the reliability of the supplier for the 'active' component of the product. Now Zerbe has to rerun all the stabilities over again, but with active from a different supplier.
That mistake of not either fully qualifying the supplier, or having two independent suppliers (which is typical) was pure amateur hour by Zerbe.
And you don't wait for the approval to negotiate a better deal. You either have a product to sell or you don't. You strike a deal on the assumption it will have approval - if you don't get approval then it's all a mute point.
Bottom line is once Zerbe takes off his lab coat - he's worse than useless, he's counterproductive. Man hasn't got a business bone in his whole body.
What's the 50 buck blog you mention - don't know about that one.
His incompetence on the raw material supply for the initial NDA filing is water under the bridge (although it was a mistake that even the most junior person should not make).
If they would just announce a marketing partner this could become something in the rear view mirror rather quickly. Unfortunately I was told by IGXT PR that they are waiting until they have the approval before signing any marketing agreements - reason, they thought they could negotiate a better deal.
That strategy shows just how completely clueless this man is about the business side. Not only is it ridiculous from the standpoint of if it doesn't get approved, there is nothing to sell anyhow. More importantly if you're the marketing company it's going to take a good 6-9 months to design and gear up your marketing program before you go to market. So the timeline would be approval late 2015, and actual launch not until late 2016. Which is a full two years later than it should have launched if they had competent management.
Let's also not forget that they still haven't found an international partner for Forfivo yet. We at three years and counting on that one. The paid pump piece this morning on DJ was a low - even for Zerbe. Absolutely pathetic.
If it follows the usual script, we should be getting bad news any day now. And the stock action is certainly looking like that is the case - another 52 week low today.
That has Zerbe's SOP in the past. Release some positive news, followed by bad news. Beyond comprehension how this man can f things up so badly.
My guess is they announce a dilution.
I would suggest you do a little more DD on costs for one of these units. This ain't like going down to Walmart for a generator, then running home and plugging it in.
These ENCR units cost 100's of thousands of dollars - plus they take months to complete on the physical side, and other regulatory / permit requirements will add on even more time (which depending on where you are can turn into a nightmare because you have to deal with a bureaucrat who is probably either corrupt or stupid).
Point is it will take meaningful money up front to get one of these started - and from being in the industry most of your money will come on the backend over time (read years and years). Meaning they aren't going to be spitting out tons of cash ASAP. Finally ENCR has NO money, and have warned in all of their recent filings about that fact - and that if they can't find the financing, will no longer be able to be an ongoing entity. Their words - not mine.
Again, great technology but with energy prices falling off a cliff capital investment by the producers is slowing down dramatically (again I sell into this industry so I know this for a fact). So if they aren't even spending on actual production equipment, I don't see them spending much if anything on secondary units like ENCR's.
The actual numbers are almost irrelevant - what is more important (and would have more impact on the PPS) is projections.
Specifically if they talk about fixing Forfivo. They need to stop talking about capturing less than half of the measly $200M a year high dose Bupropion market - and instead announce a new marketing focus that targets the whole AD market (which is a multi-Billion dollar pond).
Bupropion is superior to virtually all other AD drugs in secondary consumer benefits. All the other AD drugs tend to cause weight gain and loss of sexual desire - Bupropion is exactly the opposite. It has been used for decades as a smoking cessation drug, and shown that it can at the same time reduce your appetite. Other independent studies have shown an increase in sexual desire in women who have used Bupropion.
It is utterly amazing to me just how f-ing stupid Zerbe once he takes that lab coat off.
Great technology but to state they won't need cash is completely inaccurate. To build one of their units is very expensive, and on top of that takes a long time to build. In that time they will have to still pay for the financing of that money - which they have to borrow as they have no cash.
Again great technology, but this company is teetering on the edge financially. Be careful here, only invest in this company if you can afford to lose it all. I really do hope they succeed, just don't know how they finance it especially with energy prices dropping.
Shows just how pathetic these people are though that you can find the new presentation on line, but it isn't on the web site yet.
Also don't know whether to laugh or cry related to the quarterly sales graph on Forfivo. Shows Zerbe's dishonesty IMO. Yeah the graph shows more scripts each quarter - but it doesn't mention that they have captured less than 2% of the market.
Where's the plan to fix something that obviously isn't working. The original revenue projections had Forfivo contributing $7M in 2014.
Incompetent and dishonest - quite a combo.
You sound scared, and should be.
Prediction - royalty income from Forfivo this quarter will be over $100,000.
When that happens - stock goes over a dollar - quickly.
Once again let me remind you IGXT has a product in a $200M category - and they have no competition from a performance perspective. The problem is their CEO Zerbe and the bozos he picked to market the product.
It's been on the market almost 3 years now. If they start to gain some traction, the PPS will go up significantly and quickly.
Quick math for you - if they capture just 10% of the market in sales ($20M), then the royalty revenue to IGXT (@22.5%) gets them a profit of $4.5M per year. Even the business illiterate Zerbe can capture 10% when you don't have any competition.
Go luck with your shorting this stock at $0.40. Just the above mentioned product, plus the patent portfolio are worth twice that.
Unfortunately no I didn't see it yesterday.
I'm curious though not only what 'facts' are in dispute - but also who it was that brought it up for needing review.
Well the other reality - that you conveniently forget to mention - is that they currently have the best product in a $200M a year market. That product has no competition from a performance perspective, yet they have captured less than 2% of the market.
Point being is that even Zerbe - as business illiterate as he is - will begin to build some momentum and start to capture a greater % of the max strength Bupropion market. The potential just from this one product is rather significant - again no competition for their product in a $200M a year market. They should easily be generating $5M a year on this product.
If Edgemont hasn't started to figure this out after 2+ years - time to cut the cord with them and find a new partner. That announcement alone would double the price of the stock.
Just listing past numbers on the company can be dangerous (and then assume nothing can / will change). They have a great product - unfortunately they have an equally poor business leader.
Add in the dilution and it's 5 years.
Forfivo sales actually declined last quarter, so don't expect any 'traction'. They have no plan, and Edgemont is literally one guy sitting in an office in Austin TX trying to sell this via the phone. Not exactly the most impressive marketing plan when you are introducing a breakthrough type of product. From replies to my inquires it also doesn't seem like Zerbe included any performance clauses on the down side - meaning he is stuck with Edgemont as a partner on Forfivo. Short of paying back the $1M upfront payment (which they can't afford), this is it.
I was told by IR they are waiting until after FDA approval of the Migraine product to start negotiating with partners. That shows you just how f-ing stupid Zerbe is when is comes to business. His thinking is that he will have more leverage AFTER approval - why he thinks this, who the hell knows. Told us during the Khosla exit conference call that approval on Migraine is probably now 4th quarter of 2015. Reason is they have to rerun all the product / drug stabilities with the active from the new supplier (this by the way was gross mismanagement by Zerbe - in his area of expertise, R&D development). By the way they are employing the same - give me a huge percentage royalty failure - strategy on Migrain as with Forfivo. Meaning even if they do find a partner, there won't be enough profit potential to invest in a marketing / sales force, for it to become a successful product. To note, it has been 4 years since they signed the original agreement with Redhill - whose sole responsibility is to find marketing partners.
I am also beginning to question more and more the strength of the PAR relationship. All we have is Zerbe's word, and the consistent - I can't say anything because of secrecy agreements.
Bottom line on the above 3 revenue sources - don't expect anything more than what's coming in right now for at least another 2 years (and probably more like 3). A competent CEO could make it happen in a year.
This company has been so grossly mismanaged it defies explanation - Zerbe and the whole BOD should be replaced. Besides totally screwing up their first product launch, they haven't gone after some obvious money makers in any way what so ever - example here is animal products. The other is the pain product which is not only quite unique IMO, but also comes with strong IP protection. For the 5 years of following this company I have heard nothing on either of the above 2 topics.
As incomprehensible as it seems - I believe Gary might be right about seeing this trade into the 30's. Un-fing-believable. The only positive here is that the burn might decline a bit from two perspectives - no new CEO salary, and from my guesstimates they are close to completing the film manufacturing so no ongoing construction expenses (although they will have to spend for validation runs / QC / etc. - hopefully they will get some money from PAR / Redhill on these).
Unfortunately it's going to happen with a penny stock like this, combined with yesterday's news.
The company has a moron for an owner / CEO, and the BOD are equally useless. Under those conditions it can be manipulated at will. Zerbe certainly isn't going to step in - he is probably ignorant to it even taking place. That's just how clueless this bozo is.
Or Criminal.
After thoroughly reviewing the press conference transcript and pr release following Khosla's exit, it is my believe that false and misleading information was put forth by Zerbe (and by extension the BOD).
Specifically I don't think they ever intended to replace Khosla with a new CEO, the plan instead was from day one putting Zerbe back in that position.
Executive searches - especially for positions at this level - can take months (sometimes as much as 6 months). There simply is no way they did a complete search and then decided there are currently no candidates who would fit the company needs at this time. In partial support of this analysis, in announcing that Zerbe was now back as CEO no mention was made about not being able to find a suitable new CEO via employment search. The plan was simply to put Zerbe back in charge (might even been why Khosla left).
Any board member who voted to put Zerbe back as CEO should be replaced. Zerbe's past performance as CEO clearly showed he is not qualified for the job. To vote him back in was clearly not in the best interest of the company or shareholders.
I will be exploring next step options on this situation next week. Will keep everyone posted.
Minimum 2 years until market for the first PAR product.
I know it seems rather implausible - if not seeming like wishful thinking - but I have to think there aren't some folks thinking this is a takeover target.
All the hard work has been done, and if you look out a mire 2-3 years they should be doing at least $50M. Looks stupid cheap right here - with the only problem being a total lack of leadership.
Forfivo - Migraine - ED equivalency data soon - PAR - man if they only had a CEO.
450
It came from your comment about Zerbe being a great scientist but pathetic (my emphasis) businessman.
Yeah again morals aside about the bomb, Oppenheimer has been someone I've admired for a long time. I've been in the corporate setting and had to manage PhD's while also dealing with management on the business side. It is NOT easy.
Think I might go watch the movie as well.
No I'm not nervous about my position. If they had no products and were simply waiting on some clinical results, then I'd be pissing my pants. But there is so......much value here it is amazing.
50,000 - But to lighten the moment, and defend people with a technical background (I have a Chemical e degree, but also run my own business) - here is something to think about.
IMO the greatest management accomplishment ever was done by Robert Oppenheimer in completely the Manhattan Project.
You can object morally to the project itself - but the job he did in terms of managing both such a large set of brilliant (and let's face it peculiar personalities) scientists, and then all the bureaucratic government / military folks was nothing short of brilliant.
And there's a fine line between genius and the insane.
I'm averaged in at around $0.485 - so will wait a few days to see what happens. Tremendous amount of value still so will hope it drifts back up to around 50 - then get out.
Now that he is back in control (is that oxymoronic?) nothing is going to change - and it will be at least a year before there is anything to impact the price.
So sad, because as I have been posting this was set up to really pop if you hire the right CEO - and they even hint at resetting Forfivo the whole perception of the company changes overnight. That tells you just how out of touch Zerbe is from a business perspective. Markets move on what they think will happen first - if they think Forfivo has a new direction the company looks amazing. The AD market is $15B in the US, and they now have one of the best products in that market. Again very, very sad.
I also don't like the timing of the two PR's.
They tried to pump it up yesterday by announcing the EU filing - then drop today's bomb. Although they probably have known for weeks they were going to keep him as CEO, and just waited to announce because they knew the filing was near.
At any rate, very dishonest - not that it mattered given yesterday's price action.
I had a feeling this might be the direction he would take. The man has some serious social issues IMO. He choose Khosla only because he was able to slowly build a relationship with him over several years. The idea of bringing in someone unknown was / is probably not realistic given Zerbe's personality.
Unfortunately he is completely lacking any of the skills needed to be a CEO. The man is also not young so his best option is to sell the business immediately - but his ego probably won't let him do that either. If he were a normal person he would sell and go live out the rest of his life in relative comfort.
But since he doesn't really seem to have a life other than IGXT - looks like he will just sputter along and wait for PAR to hopefully make this into something. Absolute shame given what they have technologically. Such a waste.
The problem with Forfivo and the Migraine is simply Zerbe chasing after the high royalty percentage - which takes away any possibility of working with companies that have a proven track record.
Give these products to partners with established sales teams already selling in these categories, and they make money period. They will have to take much less in royalty percentage - probably in the 10-12% range rather than the 22.5% with Edgemont - but Edgemont has proven they can't get it done.
Edgemont is basically one guy sitting in an office in Austin TX trying to sell Forfivo over the phone - yeah that's gonna work. Both of these products need a sales force out pushing the product in person. The products are both based on a unique, more effective technology - you can't get that done over the phone.
Do it right and both products can be quite successful - not as much as PAR projects, but $50M+ absolutely.
Again, if they hire the right person it pops. So much built in value here, all it needs is the right set of guiding hands.
Just with the AD / Migraine / first PAR products they could be easily doing $200M a year.
This stock is the classic case of investors not seeing what the right management can do revenue wise.
POP POP POP - If they get the right person.
Well part of it is just the overall market tanking the last week or so, and again today on the Ebola news (I'm in Dallas and got to say no seems to be freaking out today down here).
The other problem was that the PR today reminded everyone that they are far from bringing the Migraine product to market - either in Europe or the US.
That is one thing that really pissed me off. I can understand Zerbe not doing the best business deal first shot out with Forfivo - but to screw up something as basic as making sure you have a secure supply of a key raw material (reason for the CRL) is unforgivable).
Come on respected CEO - only hope for movement here. If they don't get that settled - and soon - I'm out again.
I think they get a milestone payment with this filing. Nothing big - but it's money.
They still have the same elephant in the room though - they don't know how to sell their products. Here's hoping for a real CEO soon.
This is potentially an excellent time to get in. They are weeks at the most away from announcing a new CEO.
If this person does emphasis a change in direction with regard to how the market their finished products - especially Forfivo - this will pop like a pimple back up to at least the 70 cent mark (and higher if they do target the whole AD market IMO).
There really is no down side. Really low cash burn, and they are making some money each month.