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How will earnings be divided? Backlog?
Access to cash in event of desist of foreign investment?
——
Sales pitch on remaining assets:
Analogy:
Liverpool purchase of Naby Keita.
—-
A free hedge with upside at $10m less cash
A : 17.2m at 11m shares = $1.50 share diluted out including preferred
Or
B: 12.2m at 9m shares = 1.35 share
Jch A: $3.9m
Jch B: $5.67m less hedged short....$5.2-$5.4m
This is dry #
Influx in $500k from foreign entity would greatly disturb framework presented
My basis is avg ~$1m usd annua USD China over history (no improvements) & $750k annual brl growth/hedge tie....any positivety would be discounted (hence “Liverpool analogy”).
I foresee significant upside in value with time balanced by decrease in current valuation to wait = I must buy as price falls and accept any “missed” gains if a buyer does a “Liverpool!”
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Dauber: I apprecIatw your attentiveness to your employees!!!!!
Hmmm....
No, I said they don’t announce/ provide the details.
They submit a “plan” or ask for extension and then Nasdaq accepts...and then a few days later cvm “announces” they submitted a “plan”.
No details are included and “announcement” is useless verbiage...they could simply say submitted plan.
The last plan was announced and with details? Really? Where?
Yes, I thinks it’s clear what is being said....is it “true”...meant to be true....
And it is where I expected it to be...bending math....without “actual” endpoint being met....
And the headlights are still on....
———
I’ve got to say some stuff....:
I’m getting confused. Did Elon learn from Geert? Elon got himself in possible sec investigation just like cvm/Geert, but Geert did that first. But Elon used social media first? Hmmm....true masterminds....lol!
(Gonna pause for a moment and give myself some undeserved credit) Elon heard about my theory via major market participants and got desperate...now he’s got more than just “for” and “against”.
On a interesting note: I thought Brazil had everything in place to be the world. Great strides, a little behind (with that comes an advantage of learn from others mistakes ahead of you).....but some “redicolous” candidate there has ~25% vote playing the royal trump bs canal card (now it sounds like imitation rather than learning)....
——-
Ps after all this I expect a check and freelance.
I wouldn’t be any good focusing on this writing side of the work....
Focus must be on the work and the write comes when it does....
New dept started at Bloomberg regarding finance....with a twist....i fully intend to push them if the topics have substance
Bold move here. Stripped themselves of largerst internal growth asset (obviously contained most liabilities as well). “Stripped” is probably not the correct word, but.....
Kept the businesses that are profitable and are essentially external (essentially outsourced work).
Being honest; this has me lost, but trying to see if tape read can reveal anything..
I could see a 10-20% cash dividend being paid out.
There “should” be attraction to certain investors no matter market conditions. The connection/ dispersion of currency and oil would enable a high risk short term long/short bets - and long term hedges on either side simultaneously (with less capital)....
And interesting enough; All the while increasing liquidity....
That’s my “I’m a bit lost perception”...
Premium being paid to cover buys below 1.20 ~ at expense of commision; within limited time frame I might add...
Not a sure significance of this at moment; solely observation....tape read
I tried, but could not locate post I said as such or something that could be perceived as such so that I could explain the thought process in the event I already haven’t....
And that is a direct result of the incompetence of management...who then became a puppet to a group of funders. Then the funders hung a banner out for all to see that said “Do Not Enter!”
Hence we have investors who think they will actually announce a plan and it’s details...oh the sophisticated...
My goodness, It only appears a very very small few learned or contributed anything.
Well done sir. Great analogies as well...I will remember and borrow in the future.
This is why I first and foremost go to share structure; and what I made the points I did in most recent post about the current structure and how it has been divided.
When sabby came in many years ago; which was as the same time cvm rid themselves of the anti-dilution rights by sec obligation, it was their job to “navigate (nice way of putting it)”/use, abuse, manipulate, circumvent sec rules to maintain position at the best price possible. They had some massive ownership % which AND at times excluded shares becuase of “certain” rules..and most likey without saying were transferred to individuals from time to time...
Please don’t tell me you are so “green” that you expect them to announce their plan; let alone what it is?
Cmon, educate yourself.
Definitely not sarcasm. Subject to change, yes, as nothing is in stone and and i don’t have time to take notes / map diligently as one could / should.
If i had a team or time I’d this on lock down with the “sole” caveat of nothing is in stone.
My quick non annotated attempt to consolidate what I have already posted:
Share structure -Wealth/ lack thereof a equity has been distributed equally for the first time in 10 years (maybe more). Making it easy, quick, virtually impossible to detect who accumulates? dispersed , or do a “pipe” involving multiple investors.
(This in itself is not a “go” sign, BUT is extremely important and paramount: who wants to wait 5-10 years for the collection of shares to close a position on a company that will most likely lose some if not all assets in the event of failure p3. “Good will” assets will most likely come about resulting in time lines to lengthy, in event of immenemt failure, that can not be recovered quickly enough....think about it like leverage in a bank....a winning bet is still a losing proposition if too much capital is tied up for too long)
The opposites in case of success or speculation of such is equally in place.
They can do a pipe in many forms; I’m actually not 100% about a clean/true pipe as the market cap never crossed $75m and I don’t know if there is a legal time frame for such adherence of $75m capitalization (I’d guess 10 days or notice to market).
Summary: share structure in place.
Chart (actually theory but could probably “eventually” be seen in a chart: a broadening of pps must occur to facilitate the trades. The less liquidity the greater pps will move (standard deviation grows). Since there a no options below and the 12 month rolling period has tightened (I’d know dates if I had a team) there is virtually no room below. (Quick side track - some will say this is why charts work; I say total bs. The structure predicated everything...and those science predicated that as well....why did they disperse positions? The advantage to share structure is I have a reason and understanding and my i pay almost no premium even though i don’t know squat about science vs a chartist who has no reasoning what so ever...you can not chart infinite dilution. Period.)
Warrants avaible to exercise: these will function as a pipe.
To be cont.....
I assumed; and wanted to clarify...
But, why?
I’m slow and micro position trading a dark stock...for this exact reason (learning experience)
It’s got so called potential for 10-30 bagger (and i say that in my world), albeit I’ve never pushed a 5 digit #.....so hard to say from where it’s a 10-30 and what the liquidity is...
Patent timing puts it at 18 months though, but I’m not a patent expert (just my dable - for learning)....just trying to portray it’s not as if i haven’t put more than few hours of work into it, but at same time my position size demonstrates how little work I’ve put in...
It’s been a long long time since you’ve added anything other than your buying...
You’ve bought every price....
So you’ve been right and wrong everyday. Lol
Add something beyond that and I may listen again...
Last time you shared something worth while (of which I can recall) was years ago, BUT it was very helpful (at least in my growth) and it started a trail for me to learn even more... i already thanked you for that...
But since then... below...:
You probably own 100 share at every penny increment from $30.
Let me guess? You own ~ 305k shares
I know it’s scary how I know, but i do...
How was that similar?
It was arbitrary? By an arbitrator.
Sorry, but I don’t see even the slightest correlation. Not the slightest.
I heard hope...with zero theoretical basis.
I heard waiting from the workers
And as a theorist i explicitly said it was no go.
No work was done.
I used common sense and experience.
The math guys waited on sideline.
Hope failed.
——
Except i did my work on the side....
And I’m sure some are better than I....
And I’m sure with guidance some could be better than I...
The trial was built so massively to ensure “some” positive data...duh!
Hope? Too much work for hope....
Just say it. Expect the stock to be $5+ with 1-6 months. Done
It appears that others have a team to figure what would take certain individuals months of discipline to fill as long as they have a nose....
My nose is mighty big....
See you at 4 with my cherry off the top....
Warefare...I said “hope” as it is what observers have, not what workers contribute...
Almost all observe....
I understand why pps would be irrelevant in your game plan.
I don’t understand why listing would be important though? (Or i am looking too deep into your statement and it was more a figure of speech?)
Are you associating cvm based on “a listing” vs no longer exist?
—-
The meet happened.
Heard of few stories that he’s probably told 1000 times and was refreshed to tell a new person (me)...
But his wit was all there and the number crunching was beyond mine..
It’s as apparent as ever i lack a mentor, but at the same time “his” days/methods are past via super computer...
I don’t feel I can be great now; without understanding then better.... for lack of better explanation....how I am still a novice in many respects is quite obvious...
But we agreed the dynamics and mechanics of the market from then till now are different and are considered to be more extreme...becuase the makers have less control due to the machines/computers thus time is now more prevelant than ever.
On the other hand; my tsla thesis caught attention...
A CC with Peter Kellogg may be in the horizon
The idea that distance / battery utilization was actually a “security/protection” for tsla vs a “goal / obstacle” was /is the game changer on thought/time.
Being honest; not sure what is expected of me or what to hope for.
I think my thesis is clear and stands alone; hence caught his attention.
But, I’m not capable of “building a position complex “(multi layer / leveraged hedge) to account for time...
I know what data , but not how /where to get it, I would need to construct it; but there is zero chance I could construct...
I know this is stupid, but I’d say off top of head for “my style” i would say puts at $390.00 for dec ‘19.
Got the meet tomorrow with the grandfather of derivatives....
Need to try and pull it together....
Really been busy.....and balancing best I can....
I really enjoy helping the gentlemen....but I want to learn too....
I took the meets on premises of charity. But i know much is to be had...
A difficult situation for me....my premises of charity is true.
Being to busy is true.
Wanting is true
Reality is we don’t see well when looking.....it’s the same as not listeming..
Not sure if I’ll give a finding report on what i learned or how I was weak....
Ps. Looking at puts on tsla
I’ve memtioned Elon here before...and think he may be a cvm participant...
I’m probably right!
Let’s see about timing?
3 years right!??
5 years wrong!??
No $hit! I believe my wife has a chance to be first non US born citizen to be president!
She laughed he a$$ off too. Wasn’t even pissed that I got home 30 minutes late.....she loved that I’d been had!
The beginnings of the end are NOW!
I’m going to give shorts the path to success...if it doesn’t come quickly it is because the big players only want to short more. Personally I don’t advise this approach, but I also don’t manage billions...
Go drive any Tesla with 50k plus miles and check everything from a “end user” perspective.
Seriously!
It’s a sad truth, but negative auto drive news will do nothing to Tesla. People don’t care about other people; they care about what they have...and more importantly feel they have.
They’ll substantiate deaths with a “green” concept....until the concept is a POS!
At 50k miles almost all feel like there are 2 cars; one inside of the other...
The interior loses all tightness, the windows rattle as if coming off the arm that raises and lowers them...
It’s like a card board box inside of a snugly fit card board box...do a little DD on card board and you will understand analogy.
What ever happened to putting a buffable scratch in the car next to you if Parked to tight? Now people wait 20 seconds to remote control their car? And then do something else like text....???
Say somebody show off the other day and the car hit a planter....thank gosh not a kid who couldn’t here the stupid computer...
What I’m getting at is this analogy: people care about not having a little scratch dent...more than life as long as not them with life/death
The problem is the car itself as a car is a POS after any regular use.
Yeah, it’s still high tech, powerful, modern....but it is and feels like a POS after any significant wear and tear.
If public can ignore a life for dent; when will they prefer a “good feeling auto vs a POS” ?
It’s still a nice machine (so far), but it feels like a POS.
Soon! It’s only a matter of time!!
I don’t have one. I’ve been apologetic to lightrock about this and having nothing to contribute to what he has brought.
I can not agree nor disagree with his template. I have not put in the effort.
I can say I did run my own equations in the past. I used the word “bending math” becuase I did the equations in my head with a bend for standard deviation and that the actual end point does not need to be met; but rather be anticipated beyond reasonable doubt.
——
On a personal note - outside the question you asked.
I believe in my theory here: the share dispersion...timing, and the psychology of it, and my thesis.... BUT the tape disagrees with me (I only make a bet that disagrees with the tape no matter what else adds up for me about 1% of the time (it’s basically the final straw for me). My success here has been follow tape; hence my small position and only a little on the side waiting. Having said that; the tape almost never agreed with me on txrh. Almost every analyst was out perform rating.
——
We all have our methods. Its a shock to me that there isn’t more conversation around lightrocks math.
Everybody wants a crystal ball and nobody has come close to providing one as he has.
I’ve told you before. I think lines are waste other than to judge a range (in not such nice words), but it’s a complete waste when toxic financing is in play.
I could provide a massive list of the inexcusable excuses people make....and I’ve probably already made most of them.
People don’t get; this is real life. What’s the purpose of posting without doing the work?
I have an exemplary track record. I would not suggest follow me by any means, but I don’t understand why people don’t ask questions...to learn and apply whatever may be applicable? I could probably chart with better half of 50%; and I consider it almost completely useless.
I would put myself in the top 25% of share structure specialist; but the only specialist are the ones writing these toxic positions making it difficult to grow further.
I’m in top 10% of displacing myself and understanding biz is what biz is.
Top 5% in not judging myself on my success or failure, but rather the effort i put forth (hence my apologetic tone with lightrock for not contributing).
And i still get my a$$ handed to me!
Just the other day....
Well built, athletic, sandy blonde extremely classy women in early 40’s comes pulls up...
She’s in a black mazaratti freshly washed....
She steps out of car and I tell her my regular quick script:
She ask if we provide other services for cars (again she is classy, but she added a bit charm with the question)
I told her that her car didn’t need a wash (it’s a typical bs thing people say....and think its funny....)
She said, “no, I need some gas” can you fill it up?
Of course I said , but there’s a fee...
She pulls out $100 bill. I say sure, but that doesn’t include the valet fee.
She gives me another $5 for valet.
She says top it off. I say done. She says “serious? “(Giving me a last chance to back out)
Done I say.
So, I (pre-tip my colleagues )give $10 to one colleague and another $10 for the shift change; and figure i keep the change after tank topped off (I guessed min $30 for me up to $50 for 10 minutes to go to gas station)...
I go, gave clerk the $100 and filled it....smoked a cigarette off to side...
Gas Pump clutches.... i walk over and don’t look....proceed to clerk for change...
He gives me $21.08! It cost $78.92 to fill up!!!
I made $1.08 off this deal I orchestrated and everybody else made $10 for nothing....and trust me when I say i wouldn’t have done it for myself for $20 (I was being a team player for the young kids i work with...)
I laughed at myself becuase no others choice....I’d been taken as of I was the dumb person; which in this case I was very much so.)
When I got back I walked in and found her. She was bit taken aback by this; but I was clear with her. I said “ do you play poker? Well done. Have a great evening.
She unapologetically smiled.
She was just classy and professional as I expected, but way more ruthless and intelligent than I had even imagined.
A true pro she was!!!
It’s not a fundamental play yet; it may never be.
It’s all psychology right now. Look at gold....
A few brainiacs are trying to find correlation..
All they will do is create their own nuance with zero substance.
The lever will be found when they fall together....
Do you use (not see) virtual highways? Do use gold to retain them?
We need the tech, but the taxes are imperative!
I still can’t find “again” what caught my attention about management here...
But, I expect a plan to be instituted....of btc dispersion and asset allocation in the “form” of crypto.
Wait....wait....could be days months even years, but you will know....when you can’t even ask a believer.
Right now, off the wall....I’d be intersted at low 3; obviously a lot of factors in that number.....
Above 50% losses are far greater when time to feel them is given...
People need time to process their ignorance...you can drop it like a bomb or they will fire back kamikaze style...
And in sept 18 it became apparent that without a late onslaught of deaths in the MK group that 10% minimum will be reached.
Worst strategy ever....considering the funders...not bad if they all have exemplary reputations and track record.
Cvm started with toxic anti dilution firms.
Then went to sabby who plays everything and has connections to frost and honig and use the sec laws to their advantage of the ignorant...excuses to recap.
Nobody has ever had a real stake here. Ever. They have been guaranteed capitalization via price deterioration; why would anybody align themselves with that? Unless they participate in that same movement?
Smart? Lol....
It’s more akin to the movie “white men can’t jump”!
Watch out for a double cross...
I agree with leaps speculation comment...
But I think 1.30 won’t ever be seen again....
There is a # in which success can be determined earlier than expected. Variation...
If prelim success is announced; a wait period for final data will be in play while MK is given ok to market....
The price will jump directly to $4-7 range....as “real”speculators enter the fray....I assure you there are specialist at this curve....
We are at a bridge...
I have one bullet left here.
It will go unused in event of direct shot to $7
It will be used in event of one more down round to evenly disperse shares..
I buy a ~ .60 down round share dispersion
It will used as an exit if pipe comes late on a walk up.
It will be unused if none above occur and cvm closes shop...
And no questions? Against a worse case scenario?
Ok then...what a world...it’s such an open book....
Still protecting online avatars like more valuable than gold.
I see your number 2.
The shares appear to well dispersed.
They can bring up pps...pps rise alone can do unfathomable things....I’ll borrow you statement with my analogy of will the machines invest in us? But rather do we just believe in our investments becuase of the machines? (Applies to Elon and his absolute sociopathic antics (which get labeled eccentric)....i wonder is it the effect of the machine investing in him...??!
——-
Pps up. Do a pipe!
Bull trap pipe into hope....it would work
Edit: It may bounce back and if it does? I’ll find a good round price sub $90 to go after it again.
Wonder if Pershing is after it? I meant what I said when I met ceo...that world will crumble...
I bought small here today.
I’m working on a thought, but some things just aren’t adding up....hence small.....took some serious self control not to go larger...but I “feel” this is it...
My txrh puts looking f’n awesome right now.
Gonna cash out and take nap before I park some cars.
Curious what everybody did here today.
Deer in headlights syndrome....
And I just made a $hit load of money.
Trust. Your starting to delve into conspiracy.
It is what is. Stand alone I can see your interpretation. But the market does not stand alone...it is complete...
And like anything and everything has no crystal ball of future ingrained.
Here are a few items that catch my attention (in no particular order....what so ever - and excludes some of which get lost in thought and time to write):
Geert says $50m Mc for listing. It’s true as delisting, but not to regain or comply first time.
However this is less important than than the $75m Mc needed to have a rolling 12 month max dilution rate.
Geert says this is a limitation when his limitations passed him by $25m Mc ago.
Geert blames cro for his own lack of acumen : sorry Geert can’t blame others for your own stupidity. And then expect recourse for every resulting factor from the date of. (I have an example of my 5yr old attempting this....completely ludicrous)
Geert intimates that it’s retail selling and nature of business to dilute but retail selling is responsible...
Where is sabby management? They’ve been funding cvm for 5 years + with 20% stake and they to vanished.
So, one can easily surmise Geert is a new word in the dictionary of 2020: defined by above.
Don’t be a Geert.
——-
Fear? To enrich? A short captures profit on reality not speculation.
He actually made this point very well not so long ago - something along the lines of opposite...
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One could also simply interpret filing as shares for sale after they have been convertered in the event something positive happens?
Reality is anson funds sold out 3/31. Now has 975k “potential” common shares for sale.
They can sell low or high without the S1. Period.
But cvm does have an obligation to attempt to show an effort to comply with a “so called” listing compliance plan....
Honest. Everybody here is no good or holds theirs cards tight when theory is applicable or they spend time contemplating irrelevant situations.
——
Back to fear: he said an observation....
I can tell you: I have never seen a filing where the warrants of the placement agents were disseminated to individuals. Maybe he has..Dawson , hc wainwright, Raymond James are a group notorious and affiliates with prior toxic funders.
It’s up to you and your investment to devote the time...
Contribute something....effort...
I agree with light on some aspects, some disagree, and some have no input; but I don’t ever assume he owes me something and or what he has shared is unequivocally accurate nor has he stated so....
His willingness to engage is a matter of fact. He’s gone bypassed me and provided a data set...
And then to accuse fear monger ing when your interpretation holds the weight of virgin vs olive oil....
You have no idea...otherwise you wouldn’t be waiting for a buying opportunity.
FYI: pps will do nothings....while the deer in headlights proclaim opinions!! And do nothings!!!
$1pps, stock holders equity, $50m Mc ; variations of the stated.
I highly doubt r/s.
But if it is expect a emergency shareholder meeting prior.
IMO, Cvm destiny will already be in stone prior to any implementation. Therefore non issue
You also forgot about the next invoice from engromed...
I posted about him before...couple months ago....
A originator of the making derivative market....
He’s the one who told about the first ever....from the Bible story....remember?
Never thought the analogy would have come from him....
Find the post....it’s worth the thought. IMO
Kinda like why I see light before light arrives....
Meet didn’t happen....I’m fighting ant infestation...
But my screws are on tight.
PArker got talked out of the best 50k of his life....
And he doesn’t want to Ask?
I’d guess parker is about to lose what he “claimed” he lost.
Lol
Any questions?
It coincidentally equals 1.1764 at 8.5m shares...
But I already bought for less? How? Questions?
If my idea is right? Why will price go below? QueSrions?
Remember? I said hold 1.4 and nobody listen...
Then i day make 1.15 and nobody listen or ask?
Then I say I buy all and nobody listen....
I owned more than daily volume...
I even owned more than 1% of company for about 5 seconds at one time....
And nobody listen or ask a question?
$hit I even ask myself questions....was I genius...lucky....or just getting a little bit better every day?
I think I’m leaning towards a dismal buyout at ~1.50 share common. Maybe a bit more??
Jch redeems preferred units and walks with a slightly overall market outperformance via dividends.
Cash redemption $5m
Loan ~ $6m
Vs
2.5-3.5m cash on hand
Profitable biz going forward into cash strong environment
Hedged well for currency and divesity internally
Pre restructured internal domestic biz model for down turn of future...
$30m Mc less $10m cash injection = 20m Mc
Less volatility
Less small biz can’t demand premium
Less marketability
Less liquidity to capital market
= 50% haircut
10m Mc against 8.5 shares out standing...~~~~~
= worst case!
I buy!
Gosh. Did I have this right? 7.80 was my 20% target from tagged post.
Got out, back in at ~ 4.6 and traded it like a king....until...see my posts...
And here we are back at my point.????
Go figure....
——-
To myself:
You are getting better
But don’t let it get to your head....
It’s already f’n with you....