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Nice granularity. I can guess I will be a year older this year.
If Eden isn’t a done deal in equivalence yet, then they screwed up or are poor managers at leading an engineering/biomedical team. Which is also a screw up. If the BOD has no clue still, then they are vapid. Time to fish or cut bait.
Been through the wringer too many times with this clown car. Approvals will get done but by any stretch of the imagination they are late. Almost 3 years after Data Lock.
Like you said - THEY have a grand plan. We have no clue. If there is another “oops” we are going to extend the time frame way beyond when we expected results, I will start throwing the furniture.
Survivor you have good information most of the time. In this video the presenter states we can sell up to 12,000 patients worth without approval. The problem is without NICE approval not many can afford the treatment. So he kind of provides false expectations without approvals.
Why bring her up if she works for McClean?
Why did she even come up?
Ok. Is she VP at NWBO now?
Who the eff is Sue Keil? When did this person become VP.
I usually have a tough time with the way over the top enthusiasm but that spread sheet in the link, is close to my own valuation model and the reason to own the stock.
Hope so because up to now he has been a bust. Streeterville? That was the best he could do?
It will take time to ramp up. I would rather keep my estimates on the very low side.
You can use 40%. I just want to be conservative.
So if you got 10% of that market at a starting cost of $200K/patient it is $618 million in revenue.
Better yet - ask him what the “grand plan” is.
Basically, why are we almost 3 yrs since Data Lock.
Here is a question. I asked him when he first began his job. What are they going to charge for the vaccine. Also ask whet percentage Advent gets.
Good luck with that!
There are about 17000 total in the UK and the USA. If you take 10% market share at $200K that is about $340 million in revenue. That is for just 1,700 patients.
The storage capacity they have is for 375K patients. I will bet they expect much more from GBM and other cancers.
Ask him why he marched his troops towards Moscow. Probably get an answer for that. BUT,
Where did the $3 million come from. He will respond not public yet but sometime in the fire you will all be told.
The next 10Q is around mid August. You would think they could provide an explanation on the $3 million by then. Hopefully submitted or approved by then.
If this was the best visibility to the markets they were able to muster, they need to rethink the strategy.
Wrong messenger and wrong platform. Are you a biotech company with a massive platform or are you hiding someplace where you offer zero information.
Interesting post.
Your post and HL’s have valid points. They can both be true.
Yes, everything they have done helps approval but in HL’s thinking it should have been brought to a conclusion sooner and the share price collapse for me is partially the management’s fault that could have been avoided.
I am not saying illegal acts did not occur.
To HL’s point, they are collecting salaries and aware of what the grand plan is going to be. They are more in a position than the average retail player to move at the speed they have. What was the grand plan and how often has it changed to get the company where management wants to be? I expected TLD in July, then August, then October, then buried in a 10Q I find out there will be a journal article to accompany TLD. This all in 2020 if I remember correctly. Been so long I lose track of timeframes. Then on 5/10/22 a complete clown show on TLD with a journal article not accompanying TLD. Months later comes the journal article. The only ones in the know is management through those ~2 years.
So, approvals will happen and manufacturing will be ready but I many have been through the wringer. Waiting for the first approval and hope for the end to the cluster $&$$ saga that has had many positive and negative posters. A positive sustained move in SP would be a good sign.
A Surprise. Nice find.
“Upon approval, DCVax-l will have 12 years market biologic exclusivity in any cancer indication. Merck’s Keytruda has three years biologic market exclusivity remaining.”
I didn’t know that.
Too much storage just for GBM. A good deal of storage to accommodate solid cancers beyond GBM. I guarantee they go the tissue agnostic route as MRK has done with Keytruda. Just need to see approval in GBM first.
Actually at $200K per patient that is $75 Billion. Even at $100K per person it is beaucoup $.
3,000,000 / 8 doses per patient is 375K patients
Multiply that by $200K and it is $75B.
“ Why did Jamie Diamond ask the regulators to restrict shorting on bank stocks?”
Maybe he just likes to protect his shareholders when we have panic in the banking sector. He sure can make a better argument than a small biotech company because his argument is to protect and limit any crash in the economy. Important to many more people than just us shareholders and patients. A crash in the US of banking effects the world economy.
The last administration was going for US cost to be the same or lower than other industrialized nations or be fined. That way BP would raise prices in other countries and lower them in the US. That is the proper and fair way to proceed without destroying another US industry where we have some competitive advantage.
It is a long term lease we own with zero increase for the yearly rent. I think it is $325K/year.
Like I said - we own the gear. When I lease a home for use, I still own the home. These are simple arguments.
And when NWBO says we have storage for 3 million doses, then Advent isn’t using the storage for loved ones body parts.
Nicely put. Oh, for the love of Linda! People express it daily.
She definitely wanted some part of the manufacturing for Toucan after losing Cognate. Do I approve of her actions? To date - not really.
But, considering I have no idea what the commercial agreement will be I can hold judgement. If they only charge 15% of revenue then that would be on the very inexpensive end of a contract manufacturer for a biologic. Very inexpensive. If 25 to 30% of revenue then it would be a bad show.
It doesn’t help Advent or Linda if they got the boot because of a BO. It is only for that facility and equipment that is owned by NWBO.
Nothing like trying to paint it with a negative brush.
That is why I am saying- there will be no BO.
You are entitled to your opinion. I explained my reasoning.
Be well.
At NVCR height of mkt cap they were selling for $18 billion. They are losing growth and NWBO is just getting ready to start commercial sales. Based just on the combination trials of GBM and rGBM the $23 Billion pretty much just covers GBM. You have much more to this company. A partnership(s) I could see but I do not see a BO at $23 Billion.
All other solid cancers with “L” and Direct could be worth quite a bit.
I just do not see it. A different management structure with more knowledge and immunotherapy experience I can see.
Thank you for explaining. It has been done here so many times that I didn’t even bother to respond. It gets so tiring. Liau during talks and and with presentation slides showing DCVax is their ALT-DC that they have the capability and rights to make at UCLA for research. Liau soon to give a talk about NWBO and commercialization.
It is malicious for others to bring it up once again. I even remember people pestering Liau to assure themselves it is the same product NWBO has the commercial rights to produce. It is NWBO money that funded the UCLA research.
In the Prins case it is other sponsors but still our product to produce and sell.
Nice post.
The GBM alone is worth $20 billion. 10X better response than SOC with an agonist. You can leave the helmet at the hospital.
Sorry I stepped in. Someone else may be able to help.
I just know it is not public so it is insider information.