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reid: watch list - EYE (Visx) - takeover at 32/share appears possible-now at 21 and change.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.asp?Symbol=US:EYE&Feed=RTR&Date=20010501&...
some aggressive sell -- up 2 -- do charts lie?? <g>
fred: agree on your gut feeling as to party being over, but that fact alone taken as contrarian indicator in myself leads me to LT optimism, NT agree with reid's 1500 - have seen some speculate that 1600 might hold.
always money in trading and year off, 2x for those who hold despite some inevitable bankruptcies (eg:PSIX)
imho (extreme) - best, dave
a little fundamental support re:gas - from diablo newsletter today
DiabloFact to Ponder
In our February 23, 2001 DiabloFacts we discussed the seasonality of
Natural gas prices and the corresponding swings in Gas related stock
prices. We are in the weak ‘Springtime Selloff’ period now. We even
heard one TV commentator note that…contrary to popular belief, the Gas
shortage must be easing because inventories rose in the prior week. This
is not only to be expected (again, refer back to our 02-23 piece) but it
had better continue! In a hurry! We need to get 3.0+ TRILLION cubic feet
of Natural gas in storage by fall to even have a glimmer of hope that this
past winter’s amazing price spikes in Natural Gas do not occur again.
Our strong opinion is that we will not make those inventory levels.
Here’s why:
Many many gas producers have put compressors on their gas wells. The
effect of this compression is to lower the pressure on the wellhead (the
vacuum side of the compressor faces the well). In that way, the gas is
able to flow out of the ground faster, and against less resistance. The
producer can then sell more gas at a higher price…The unfortunate side
effect of all this compression is that it steepens the decline curve. By
this we mean that the wells which have compression show a faster and
greater drop-off in production rates than those which do not. Now,
granted, we are generalizing here, and way-oversimplifying the entire
process…but in the end, we simply do not believe that current Natural gas
production forecasts have included this little tidbit of information…and
are thus WAY too positive.
Add to this the fact that the highest drill rig count in 10 years has
failed to add even one net molecule of Natural gas to this country’s
reserves…and you get the picture.
The weather in this country in the springtime is historically not
extremely hot nor cold. Hey, why do you think everyone loves the Spring?
It makes sense that demand for Natural gas declines during this time…no
heating…no air conditioning. But wait until summer, when California goes
into peak demand…110 F in the Inland Empire for weeks on end…and the
plains are broiling…and demand will pick up again. This in our opinion,
will severely hamper the Utilities’ ability to get Gas into storage…as it
did last year. Oh…one more compounding problem…bunches of new Gas fired
turbine electricity generating stations have come on line this year…and
there are bunches more to come. GE’s turbine division, as best we can
tell from news announcements, has a 5 year backlog of gas fired turbine
work.
Are you getting the picture? We believe there is opportunity in natural
gas stocks during this spring selldown.
The US fiddles while Gas burns…this is a serious problem, and we do not
believe it will go away anytime soon. In fact, we believe it is worsening
at an alarming rate.
Ponder it!
reid: this was essentially the cnbc chart - scary
reid: look at little USU energy ticker we toyed with at 3-4 bucks with great dividend.
http://www.askresearch.com/cgi-bin/chart?symbol=usu&exchange=USA&size=640x480&months=3+m...
reid: Looks similar in incline, but that's the dow. the cnbc chart was the naz and looked much worse in that the top channel line barely had been breached, if at all. and the sharp incline down was sobering. looked like a five year horizontal would be needed to connect the upper and lower channel lines given channel incline going forward. Donna: sorry i don't have data/access to recreate the chart. one of cnbc's few "best of breed" ananyses imho. dave
egg cookies? fortune rolls? sounds scrumptious! <g> agree with your skepticism on most long term projections, but not these two. fundamentals and economic climate can change overnight, but like good ta, the statistical charts don't lie imho. my beef is where this data/info was when all the talking heads were saying jdsu under 120 was a buying opportunity? (now 17 and change). the statistics have neither changed nor appeared overnight, just the inclination to publicize them. wonder who profited and who lost? waxing philosophical? color me guilty.
dave
hate to interrupt: but synchrony turned on cnbc this afternoon and for those with a history of me and who may (or may not) remember my harping on standard deviation cnbc report showing anomoly above norm when naz exceeded 5000 and was at time near 3300 saying all stats pointed to lower and it scared me to death. well here's another.
nice cnbc chart showing channel for past 30-40 years (about 2-4pm est) with nice line demonstrating how current market drop is only now touching upper channel line projection and e-commentator pointed out we have either to go through a 29 crash or more likely laterally paddle for 5 years until bottom line of channel catches up and supports naz index trough at some point. trade don't hold being the axiom.
as a student of statistics, this is a highly meaningful and cryptic warning. as a trader for 4 years, i am a bit more than miffed as to where these great statisticians were when everyone was being urged by analysts to hold on for that "inevitable rally". they had the information then but did not share. Or we did not listen. how history repeats. <gg>
fred: as afterthought short position day or two before dividend is paid might prove a viable play, but would want to know ticker behavior for a few cycles back before going big time.
dave
fred: have tried that a couple of times and in each case the trend is for a price runup into the dividend date with sharp drop immediately after that is hard to avoid as holding period is absolute (unlike earnings when you can sell before/after report). also the runup begins earlier so ties up money and dividend return as pct of price exacerbates the peak and after drop shock. decided there are better uses of money. IMHO of course.
best, dave
<If you have heard of this new product and know who makes it let me know. >
http://www.rense.com/general7/paper.htm
here it is. dave
reid: thanks for putting in your "two cents:" but given the iimplicit invitation "penny for your thoughts, don't you wonder where the other penny's thought went <g>
reid: keep in mind i'm the messenger, but my republican railroad tycoon friend atypically went on record big time tonite (unsolicited) with a prediction of .25 basis point cut (not 75 or even 50) and a positive reaction from market on totally psychological grounds that economy downturn does not warrant such pessamism and is overdone. I watch with interest on that account as surprises have not been typical of ag, but then again, maybe he learned from the progressive rate hikes and lyndon johnson's viet nam escalations that surprises can pull rabbits out of hats. in any case, as to your question, i tend to fall into donna's camp until the market assumes a bottom and some upside momentum. we can't be very far from either based on my portfolio valuation <g>.
when everyone started saying buy tech's, hindsight tells us it was really last chance to get out. my neighbor said yesterday it was time to get out of tech stocks. contrarian in me says based on that we are nearing time to get in. safe harbor stocks are far less safe imho after dow (also inflated) broke below 10000. what is safe harbor that is not cash? let me know. most interested in finding them, although USU is up over $6 as i write.
best, dave
stop thinking futures; start thinking "back to the futures" <g>
donna:it's a y2k problem ag overlooked. market is seeking to revert to 1901 levels <g> dave
donna: an interesting piece on ppro now trading under 11. large short interest as percent of shares:
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Thom+Calandra's+StockWatch&siteid=mktw?dist=nwh...
dave
reid: inap looks like 50 dma resistance approaching 11/share. any thoughts as you are better at that. also, has anyone heard when they report earnings? can't find it on dlj calendar.
they did pre-announce blowout report on cnbc a week or two ago. said 4th qtr rev exceeded total for preceeding 3 qtrs. ebitda positive, margins up to if i recall that part correctly.
reid: INAP new tech to be demo'd on 2/6. AP news service a new customer as well.
InterNAP to Preview Technology That Validates the Performance of Its Overlay Network
Preview to Provide a Glimpse Into the Future of an InterNAP-Enabled Internet
SEATTLE, Jan. 26 /PRNewswire/ -- InterNAP Network Services Corporation (Nasdaq: INAP), the leading intelligent routing services provider, will unveil new technology that validates how InterNAP can provide superior performance for today's corporate Internet needs, as well as enable the most demanding applications and real-time, interactive communications in a live demonstration in New York, Boston and Seattle on February 6, 2001.
reid,
I have 1000 sh. great company, executing well, patented technology with new technology demo scheduled to be unveiled i believe on feb 4th. no real competition, as indicated by partnerships with akam etc. biggest threat is the new generation telcos like lvlt. short of that, inap is said by some to BECOME the web of the future. Frankly doubt that, but definitely a strong niche player.
as to ipo days, we traded it often. as jenne could testify, inap is almost contrarian play which moves on little volume then plateaus. unique behavior IMHO compared to others I have traded.
they better get 10 posts at a time here. am now only reviewing list of posts and selectively reading. too slow to wade through one at a time with dialup. dave
IRF donna stock-from thompson I-watch:
25-Jan-01 12:11:22 International Rectifier (IRF), a manufacturer of power
management semiconductors, is drawing investors' attention after beating
forecasts and issuing a bullish outlook in its 4Q report. Notably, the upside was
in contrast to many other chip manufacturers that have issued negative outlooks.
Earnings surged 209% to $0.71 from the same-quarter last year, which was
$0.05 better than the First Call consensus forecast. Though JP Morgan was
impressed with the results, the firm remains cautious on concerns that
International Rectifier cannot remain immune from the documented slowdown in
the sector. Regardless, IRF has risen $1 9/16 to $50 1/2 on 1.8 million shares
today, above the daily average of 1.4 million shares. Over 55% of the volume
stems from block trades, more than double its daily average. There are some
sellers of size in the I-Watch pre- trade market just above current prices,
advertising a fair amount of sell and super sell messages, which is capping
today's gains. From a longer term perspective, the weekly chart shows that IRF
is creeping up the right side of 20-week base. Though the stock has some work
to do before completing its 20-week consolidation, which is often the impetus
for higher prices, IRF's behavior has been orderly thus far. Volume has
accelerated in the past 4 weeks, as prices have risen, which is constructive.