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Looking good (for now) LOL!
As erniek would say: "Listen to Don he's usually right"
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=89333789
That's pretty much what I thought I heard Ben say following the FOMC meeting.
What's trouble some are the hints of deflation/disinflation. Which the commodity markets seem to be warning of.
There is so much misinformation out there that only a few people really know what's going on outside of their own backyards, let alone half way around the world.
More and more I'm beginning to hear talk of deflation/disinflation. Perhaps China will be coughing up big hair ball sometime soon???
Yes, makes sense as there are trends within trends.
Hi Trend. Are you currently short, long or out??? TIA!
The fact that RE has once again become liquid is quite important. It is also a "HUGE" job creator. I was told just today that a normal middle class house in a small town nearby sold in just a few days. It had been vacant for around 5 years after the owner went into assisted living. Just knowing that your home is once again marketable is very important for consumer confidence.
YB, what's your view/opinion of the U.S. economy? Personally I think it's getting better rather than worse. I just don't see the doom and gloom that some are suggesting.
Still the best house in a bad neighborhood???
No 4th of July rally after the recent 7-8% correction?
Thanks Don. Any downside targets for gold and silver? TIA!
Hi Tech, something else to track. Have the calls out of Goldman Sachs been a reliable indicator? Are there any reliable brokerage houses? Historically is it best to fade the calls that GS and others make or not???
Hi Tech, track this. Certain posters who take bearish positions during an uptrend and then soon after we start heading down they become bullish???
I've often wondered if "GS "
or who ever, might not employ a gang of blog posters to miss lead the lambs to slaughter???
Yes Foot. That post was a bit off base, LOL!
My point was that on a historical basis interest for a thirty year mortgage is low and as long as you need to live in a dwelling why not buy? Real estate has been a good LTDH as long as it doesn't have the ghetto decay factor, LOL!
As far as your thoughts that J.Q. Public is clue less, DING DING!
Case in point, 1999, folks around the water cooler were complaining about "just getting buy". My coment was "this is as good as it gets" and it was!!!
BTW ,been totally debt free since 1999!
You just sound like you think real estate is a poor investment? Why? Is renting a better choice for those that can buy???
BTW, My home/with 10 acres would most likley sell for 300k, with out a realator, LOL!!!
Hi Foot. I bought my first house @ 11% interest (land contract well below bank rates at the time, 1981). Paid it off in 8 years. Co- workers said I was stupid. (Home cost 45K) Sold it for 75K 12 years later. Meanwhile I bought 10 acres had a house built (where I live). Owed 40K. Then bought 57 acres for 109K which I sold on a 15 year land contract @ 5%, 20% down for 315K Dec. 2012. (No realter closed in 13 days).
So whats the bitch regarding 5% interest rates??? Just how long have you been a realator for? Do you even own anything???
Treasury Bonds. I think I've seen this before. Suddenly rates tick higher so that 'Certain Folks" get a chance to get some yield. Plus principle apperciation. Could be different this time? If not what a killing for those who are connected!
Quadruple Witching on Friday! Hmmm? FOMC plus Quad Witching. I'm out for now. Last I looked cash was still King, LOL!!!
Seems as I read somewhere that Germans did not trust certain bankers, hmm? Go figure?
Looks like we filled the gap yesterday. Will the inverted H&S play out on the GDX? Any thoughts on the potential upside "if" the pattern plays out???
IMHO, VALE would be a better LTBH. Isn't CLF boardering on extinction? I'm surprised they haven't been removed from the S&P 500.
It almost has the looks of an inverted H&S??? Will the gap fill at the neck line???
Have you looked at VALE?
Foot, are you still thinking there will be a rotation out of stocks and into Gold, PM's and the miners???
TIA!
So, with Europe in mind why is the POG falling?
I think you are getting off track on the fact that the FED only influences bond prices and does not have complete control. The best recent example is Japan.
Bond rates "change" based on whether there are more buyers or more sellers just like any market.
The BOJ is a great example of failed government manipulation.
The "market" sets bond rates, not the FED.
They are often called the "Bond Vigilanties"
All the FED can do is to influence or direct rates.
Just look at the BOJ's recent attemps.
Did you ever do the math on how you'd have done "IF" you would have just bought TZA??????
I pay around $3500 a year on a $250,000 tax basis. How many swimming pools do your schools have? How well paid are your teachers, police and firefighters?
Here is what mortgage rates have been since 1971.
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.htm
I've been doing well trading and day trading DUST and a few NUGT'S for a few months now. IMVHO, it's time to revisit the old saying "Cash is King" aka if you feel like trading day trade or swing trade with short time frames.
For those stuck in 401k's I'd go to cash. Thoughts???
Perhaps it's better to just "Sell in May and go away"!!!
With a holiday weekend for the USA only along with EOM/TOM anything can and will happen. And yes almost forgot, Tuesday the 28th (day after USA holiday) it's OEX for gold and silver!
Yes, Ben talked about fasing out of QE when speaking with congress this morning. At 2:00 PM they released the FOMC minutes. I for one believe that QE will slowly fade away, especially when Ben is gone. In the mean time the "powers to be" will take profits long before the optomistic longs. When? Don't have a clue.
I also had it in the twenies (lost big bought higher) Finally realized (as the broker warned) the tripples are ment for day trading. Also realized that the trend for gold & all miners is still DOWN!
I've found posting trades to be bad luck. I've also found that day trading/short term trading better mets my personia.
Sometimes. Since early March I've had over 20 profitable round trips with DUST and around 6 with NUGT. Most but not all were day trades. Very volitile to say the least!
Not really sure, but isn't the BOJ doing as much or more than the FED? I also believe the are buying stocks along with bonds.
Read the last paragraph on page one. Footquarters has been speculating for a while now that gold will catch a bid once the market sells off.
http://stockcharts.com/public/3421479
So, should we buy the next correction?
Also let's look at where we really are when adjusted for inflation.
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/commentaries/SPX-Dow-Nasdaq-Since-Their-2000-Highs.php
haha, what are the chances gld/gold will put in a double bottom and bounce higher? (From a technical point of view?)