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Thank you for reply nssr5, I'm guessing $6.66, LoL but will wait for a bottom pattern and not catch this knife.
Thank you.
What did he do? tia
Hey bud! Any fundamental news? Bought this before 60 minute and tried getting out at 10.60 then 10.40 filled below 10 with great profit. Then just before the E.R. bought the pop to 10 very small less then one percent of intended money at risk not knowing which way it will go and now looking to go all in on the money willing to risk(30k) looking for a bottom 7 $6? Will treat this risk as buying a long term CALL option but have the edge because of no time decay or expiration, hope it does not go bust. So looking for some validity in the CEO and Chinese market. TIA your nat gas buddy.
I'm hedged short term with DGAZ. and will either go to back cash and set up for next seasonal or sell both to open. But most likely cry uncle on nat gas.
Politics?
9 weeks V pattern?
FEDS manipulation coming home to roost?
How are you taking advantage of the coming correction?
Sold 25%
Going to day trade tomorrow
I have no plan at the moment and will decide hopefully before the market opens my plan of attack.
The April #natgas contract settled right around unchanged on the day as skyrocketing day ahead cash prices were canceled out by weekend forecast HDD losses: https://t.co/Fq3D8CXzoB $UNG $UGAZ pic.twitter.com/gK3h4UmjhR
— Bespoke Weather (@Bespoke_Weather) March 4, 2019
I'm still in was at a slight profit at LoL
Early December 2017 I was holding 2000 shares @62 of UGAZ price then started heading down below 50 almost sold, luck has it it shot up to 80 then back down to 58 in the next few weeks, almost selling again. By the end of January 2018 it moved up to 105 and started shorting futures when it moved below 100. On November 2nd really luckier has it that I closed my short futures at a small loss and sold half of my UGAZ just under 80 only to see it rocket up to above 250. Sold all UGAZ day before that one big up day to 250.
Reason I'm writing this is that every time I want to bail out and when I do bail out on my longs over the years, starting way back in the early days before UGAZ was created, it was the exact opposite of what I needed to do, LoL
Right on!
Over hundred percent better the us.
That was my plan, after thanking god I was not caught short QG hedging UGAZ, was going long futures @ or near $2.50 in the nearby's, and hedge with short UGAZ.
Ha! I can not believe I rode that roller coaster up with UGAZ and down with with QG, g
why did I choose this commodity? I started shorting mini QM in 2008 high and watched NATGAZ tank just as hard, so that is why I choose NatGas thinking it would bounce and since UGAZ was like a CALL option without expiration and TIME decay, I choose UGAZ as a vehicle, boy was that a mistake.....long futures short UGAZ is was the way to go.
but still made few grand doing the opposite
Me too, we learn from our pain and gain.
FOMO lol MOFO
Thanks bud for reply.
I know what your writing, I think right now for me is to straddle with say May contracts with maybe a more leveraged 2XETF for one of the four indices........... it should move up or down big by then and maybe both sides. I will sell otm call if it moves up to 2800 without a pullback and maybe a ratio vertical spread, if i'm lucky and it goes higher towards new all-time highs - all this right away
now the opposite if it gives back towards 2700, now here i will be more aggressive because we are in a MOFO mode, no not MOther FOcker, hahaha
H.O.P.E.
Hold On Pain Ends
hAHaHa
That is funny!
The stock market is closed Monday, but mini futures will trade Monday until 1pm then a 5 hour holiday halt resuming at 6pm.
Futures trade nearly 24 hours a day, starting at 3pm pst Sunday till 5pm Friday.
Guess I was correct in my forecast and my wish of 2,800 battle line is near. Can not believe I did not stick with it, sold my QLD near 79 from that Dec 24th bottom @60 and 58 was the low I think that next day, but still holding oil.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=146237786
Thanks buddy.
From Early 2015 March futures traded from $3 to 2/22/16 to $1.62 causing UGAZ to collapse.
So if I was all in at this point I would give it very little time to be proven correct by this market IF NOT say after report/weather etc - with the knowledge I would realize my loss and switch to trading long futures or long premium(buying CALLS) in UNG with A LOT of TIME and at or slightly out of the money strike price. This does not guarantee a win but buys more time to be proven correct by this market.
I AM NOT A COMMODITY BROKER OR ADVISER BUT THIS IS WHAT I WOULD DO IF ALL IN AND STILL HAVE A LOT VALUE IN THE SHARES and want to keep my long bias going taking advantage of a commodity trading near its lows.
Just my opinion.
Reading this hurts me first thing this morning. Having written that, I am thinking price will wash out soon, maybe today and will move back up.
I have been in your situation before and did wait it out, it was the 911 nightmare, when the market open again my profitable S&P call options expired worthless leaving me with under 10k in cash which I used to go on a 6 month walk about through Central America. Those became best memories and brought me to recent successes.
I'm @ 2% willing to risk 10% that this will go to 42 short term. My last buy was at 37 and wanted to add below 25 by going long mini futures and hedge if I have too.
I have some realized profits and willing to risk those gains.
What is your plan?
Is that a small % of money at risk?
I'm not adding unless it heads below recent lows.
Or buy it then if it moves up sell it and give us the money?
BOT 10,000,000 CGC Stock 42.60 USD IBKRATS FEB 11 08:11:22 lmao
Thanks!
I go for a quick 10% on my risk capital. Many times over.
Good night, thanks for banter.
"What is the Martingale Strategy?
Popularized in the 18th century, the martingale was introduced by the French mathematician Paul Pierre Levy. The martingale was originally a type of betting style based on the premise of "doubling down." American mathematician named Joseph Leo Doob continued the work of Levy in working on the martingale strategy, as he sought to disprove the possibility of a 100% profitable betting strategy."
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/06/martingale.asp
Glad it help you guys. I have following this commodity since the early nineties and recent decade starting risking money on it. Do you know why two pictures get uploaded, I'm putting it on image, pasting in between once I click on image?
By watching it over the years I know that it will kick your arse if you get too cocky with your feel for the context of Natgaz and it direction.
What i have discovered is that near or below these levels you can Martingale strategy if proven wrong till it finally moves in your favor and once it does you can combine regression strategy with adding on the way up if proven correct.
But you must do it these extreme moves lower / higher BIG range days and many down small range days, especially new yearly or five year lows, all time lows are best.
You double up each time you lose....A martingale is any of a class of betting strategies that originated from and were popular in 18th century France. The simplest of these strategies was designed for a game in which the gambler wins his stake if a coin comes up heads and loses it if the coin comes up tails.
$375 was $63,000 at expiration,
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Yes on your last question. It happened to me several times using UGAZ. You have to time your next buy to move up right away. Timing is everything, if not proven correct, you must have the ability to adjust by buying more and quickly get out if wrong again. I hedged with mini futures if over bought and oversold.. Once the futures start heading up fast even the losing shares will start to gain faster and faster.
regular ETF's, 2x ETF's(UCO) and 3xETF.
“Contango is a word traders use to describe a specific market condition, when contracts for future delivery of a commodity are more expensive than near-term contracts for the same stuff. It is common in commodity markets, though as Wolf and other investors learned, it can spell doom for commodity ETFs.
When the futures contracts that commodity funds own are about to expire, fund managers have to sell them and buy new ones; otherwise they would have to take delivery of billions of dollars’ worth of raw materials. When they buy the more expensive contracts — more expensive thanks to contango — they lose money for their investors. Contango eats a fund’s seed corn, chewing away its value.”
Decay comes with all commodity ETF's because the futures expire and next contract is adjusted accordingly.
I started trading these leveraged ETF's thinking they do not expire worthless if wrong in SPEED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
https://etfdailynews.com/2010/07/22/why-long-term-investors-lose-money-in-commodity-etfs-uso-ung/
https://spreadcharts.com/understanding-commodity-etf-decay/
https://seekingalpha.com/article/222365-why-natural-gas-futures-are-safer-than-ung
TIME DECAY sensitivities It is very similar to buying options. That is why if price does not move in my direction RIGHT AWAY I look to get out or if bottom or top picking TRY BUYING MORE AT A LOWER PRICE because if proven correct by the market those positions will make up for those which decayed in value on paper.
"it's said that good judgement comes from experience - and experience comes from bad judgement.when it comes to options trading. bad judgement can add up to heavy losses.
the sooner you fall behind, the more time you'll have to catch up
not understanding that option purchases require direction and speed to be profitable
while the quote above is funny, it certainly does not apply to buying options. if you buy options it is imperative to have two conditions occur,,,,a fast move and movement in the right direction....more on this later
if your option trade falls behind, it is often too late to catch up. the time premium erodes, and the position ends up a loser.
this is very different from stock trading where the investor only needs to get the direction correct. "
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=146615021
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=146615102
Started buying these shares Dec 2017 below 75 and dollar cost averaged down till it hit 50, then as it shot up in Jan 2018 above a 100 and started coming back down I started shorting futures against those 2000 shares to hedge my gains. I made money on both sides doing this several times last year.
I have been trading and following this QG and UNG since 2007 with very little reward, this has been a long strange trip for me.
Then last Nov Sunday night we were gambling at Mandalay Bay I was checking my futures quote and saw a big gap above $3 the shares were just above $80 the Friday before. Earlier that week I got out of three short futures at a slight loss($250), why did I close those? Pure LUCK, I thank god because it shot up for a solid 5 days to $260.23, I sold all my shares on the forth day at 136, then when I saw 260 I was so bummed out that I missed that final big up day. When it went below 200 dollar I started buying DGAZ&KOLD knowing these guys trading gas futures are ruthless.
Recently sold the DGAZ and KOLD and started buying UGAZ I might add if it goes below 25, my plan was to go long futures not shares of UGAZ from the lucky lesson I learned so at $2.50 to $2.25 might start buying mini futures and sell those UGAZ shares on strength.
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looking at 1/22/2019 Mar19' (NGH19) futures coming down previous day then little bounce to $3 the UGAZ shares was at $49.44 high. fwiw go figure
$147.42 when 12/11/2018 April '19( NGJ19) was @$3
Getting old sucks when you love nose riding cue. why?
Because you have to nimble, fast, agile and athletic to surf like that in small wave.
Welcome to my world
My best friend is one of those. bought at $33, 12/11/2018, then it moved down below $26, I was going to risk below $24. I warned to take profit above $50 and was told I am buying and holding alla Warren Buffet, soooo now all those thousands being taken back to only add more to risk, when? Not sure what they will do. Also I suggested if too complicated to implement to cash out and look to buy again at lower levels or even risk smaller take gains on 50% of position and to consider open long shares as a FREE trade.
I suggested to sell the call and buy the put for every hundred shares, ideally the $55 strike, then again near $51 since $55 was not reached. This is what I was trained to do when trading in the IBM pit training to make a market at the CBOE Synthetically short to lock in,
here is that conversation, "Rob Klatt wrote: Aggie SYNTHETICS - Locking in a Time-Premium Credit
A conversion is created by buying or holding a position in a company's stock, then selling call options and buying put options at the same strike price and expiration date as the call options. If this can be executed for a net time-premium credit on the call and put options, you will have locked in a profit no matter where the stock trades before expiration day. You can think of it as a synthetic short (same strike short call/long put) hedged with a long stock position. (Learn more about arbitrage in Put-Call Parity And Arbitrage Opportunity.)
click here https://www.investopedia.com/.../conversion-arbitrage1.asp
Lucas,Stephen, Jordan - Most people would rather be certain they're miserable, then risk being happy...........................................................................................................................................................THESE TEN QLD CALL options were only three day trade for us. And this strike price is just recently back to at and in the money. We bought these and sold them shortly after November 2018............................................................
I just did this gamma trading recently buying calls OTM in the leveraged nasdaq ETF, point being bad habits are hard to break for me, but this CALL option strike is still above where this underlying ETF is trading as of last Friday. Those options expired worthless even though it shot up in value first 200% in a day, I closed and took profit of almost 100% that next day before these contracts expired worthless because the nasdaq started to continue to go lower below that strike WAY LOWER. LoL..................................................................................
SO writing that let's look at the contracts that have not expired yet because I bought lots of time premium, it is almost ATM and time premium has decayed a lot.------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In the nineties I traded lots ot OTM in the nearby contracts about to expire, we coined it 'GAMMA TRADING'. We look to buy options about to expire, one strike out strangles and count on IV spikes like we are seeing today. Mainly on the OEX,SPX, and spoos options. And when the Q's were created I started trading them because they cost a lot less.
Lost a lot after my early winning streak thus making me a lucky loser thus needing to learn from my trading patterns.
I have been lurking/reading here as of late 1998 and lately reading posts on this board, Thank you for all your commentary.
The fact that many option traders lose money on options creates a pattern of behavior that only makes the losses more certain. After a few losses, most traders alter their picks in favor of short-term options and out-of-the-money options in order to reduce the cost of the option, both big mistakes. In doing so, they think the worst that can happen is they lose a couple bucks, so what's the harm? The harm is that they nearly guarantee a loss on a consistant basis.
You can see the web of inaccuracies created by the first three mistakes and why they are so predominant in this business.
Buying OTM options is another surefire way to stack the odds against you. As with buying short-term options, this does not mean that OTM options should never be used. It's just that they should probably not be used all the time, which is what many traders do.
We can emphasize this point by placing a bell curve over the range of stock prices on the horizontal axis. Most stock prices will stay close to their current price over a short period of time. The futher away from this price, the less likely it will occur. With the bell curve in place, we can see that there is a small probability the stock will exceed $5($55 strike) away from the $50 mean, and an even smaller probability for higher strike. In order to increase our changes of a winning call option, we need to LOWER the strike price, not raise it(we need to raise the strike price for the puts).
Don't try to minimize the pain by buying short-term or out-of-the-money options.
Risk being happy.">" />
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nowwhat wrote this to my sons regarding option buying and wanted to share it with you and others who want to trade using long premium. " Lucas start here. remember timing is everything with buying premium. Hey was that you doing that flip on ski video yesterday?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? DISCOVERY CONSISTS IN SEEING WHAT EVERYBODY HAS SEEN AND THINKING WHAT NOBODY HAS THOUGHT - LARRY WILLIAMS
RISK BEING HAPPY
Rob L Klatt
December 30, 2011 · San Luis Obispo, CA ·
Reflecting on three mistakes in long premium(buying options).
Risk being happy...You can make money when you know how to use volatility, time decay and price movement. The criteria research becomes a little more intense and expanded.biggest mistakes trading options.
it's said that good judgement comes from experience - and experience comes from bad judgement.when it comes to options trading. bad judgement can add up to heavy losses.
the sooner you fall behind, the more time you'll have to catch up
not understanding that option purchases require direction and speed to be profitable
while the quote above is funny, it certainly does not apply to buying options. if you buy options it is imperative to have two conditions occur,,,,a fast move and movement in the right direction....more on this later
if your option trade falls behind, it is often too late to catch up. the time premium erodes, and the position ends up a loser.
this is very different from stock trading where the investor only needs to get the direction correct.
for example, say you buy a issue for $50 because you think its price will rise. if so, it doesn't really matter WHEN it moves higher. sure, sooner is better, but the point is that you will always have one point of profit for each point move in the stock regardless of when that move happens. any gain above 50 dollars is yours to keep.
this is not true for options. what makes the options game so difficult is that you need to correctly determine the direction of the stock or commodity and how quickly it will get there.
How to correct this mistake of not understanding that option purchases require direction and speed to be profitable.
the main point you want to learn from this is that you can't just buy a call because your bullish(or a put because your bearish) that only works for stocks. with call options, you need to decide just how bullish you are. the next time you want to buy a option, figure out the break-even point(option cost+strike price for calls, and strike - option cost for puts) and see if that underlying value fits in line with your expectations of the stock.
it should now be easy to see why this mistake persists with some options traders. if you consistently lose money on options by purchasing too high of a strike price, the last thing you'd want to do is buy a lower strike call for more money.... That's exactly what you SHOULD be doing, and why it's so easy to routinely make this mistake. and that's why it is number one on my list of mistakes in option trading.
if your not comfortable putting more money into the option trade, try buying in-the-money but FEWER contracts.
no matter how hard it may be, break the thought that a call is a call or put is a put. they all behave very different. remember the NEED FOR SPEED.
here is option trading second biggest mistake.
NOT BUYING ENOUGH TIME!
there is never enough time,unless you're serving it.
this habit stems from the fact that options traders typically don't want to put money at risk. therefore, they buy options with little time remaining in order to reduce the cost and thereby almost guarantee a loss!
buying time is closely related to our first mistake. investors who do not understand that options must have the correct direction AND speed are easily tempted to buy short-term options. this is compounded by the fact that option traders are attracted to high leverage provided by options. the reason,"we pay extra for additional time when you can use that money to buy more contracts" again, you must remember that there are differences in the way each option behaves and that all calls are NOT created equally. they have different sets of risks and rewards, and it is up to the trader to decide which is best for any given situation. this is not to say that it's never okey to buy short-term options, as there certainly are times when they're the best. however, if you are more often than not losing on your options, buying more time can be an immediate help.
buying time carries some strong benefits. first,obviously,you have more time for the underlying to move in the necessary direction. just in case your prediction is wrong - even if it's only a few days off....the added time on the option can bail you out of a losing situation. remember, you can always close out your option early and receive some time value back, which is a luxury not often provided with short-term options.
a second benefit is that longer-term options become increasingly cheaper PER UNIT OF TIME than shorter-term options. for example, it is now may and PENN is trading around 48$ the may 45 call with five days to expiration is trading for $3.80 and the DEC 45 call with 187 days to expiration is trading for 9 dollars. while the DEC call is more expensive in terms of dollars, it is cheaper per unit of time. in other words, the may call cost 3.8/5days=76cents per day,
the DEC cost 9 dollars/187days=4.8 cents per day.
this will be true for any option.....the more time remaining, the cheaper the option becomes per unit of time. in the real world of trading, it will usually take between three and four times the amount of time in order to double the option price.
the third benefit of buying time is that you increase the responsiveness(delta) of out-the-money options. if you must buy OTM options, longer maturity will make option's price appreciate more then a short-term OTM option.
MSFT may 70 call is 0.90 DEC 70 call is 6.60. these two calls have deltas of 0.36 and 0.53 respectively. this simply means that if Microsoft were to move up a dollar over a short period of time, we would expect to see may calls to gain 36 cents and the DEC call gain 53 cents in price. now you are undoubtedly thinking that a 36 cent move on a 90 cent call is much bigger percentage gain than 53 cent jump on a call costing 6.60. once again, percentage changes are not money...... they are relative values..
.a 300% gain on a penny is not the same as a 3% gain on a million, get it?
with all else constant, the longer-term options will make more money on that one point move. the reason the short term call has a higher percentage change is due to the fact that it is a riskier option. the very same reason that it will likely end up being a loser.
the only way you will ever convince yourself to buy more time is to understand the differences between short-term and long-term options. short-term options behave like lottery tickets and either quickly become valuable or worthless. longer-term options will almost always have some value to them.... even if the underlying moves in the opposite direction. please don't think this means that you can't lose a significant amount of principal on longer-term options. however, the longer expirations typically do not become worthless in the matter of an instant, as is often the case with short-term options.
the habit of buying short-term options is hard for many traders to break. that's because once the losses start to mount, they figure," why put out MORE money on a longer-term option?" in fact, it is this thinking that often makes traders use shorter expirations as well as OTM options in order to reduce the cost. these are almost surefire ways to ensure a loss...
that brings us to another mistake in option trading,,,,buying only OUT THE MONEY OPTIONS.................................................HERE IS A TRADE WE PUT ON JANUARY 25th when we saw PG&E shoot up 50% day before. we bought almost a thousand dollars worth of premium$990 on ten CALL options. notice the strike price(DELTA) and THETA(time value)
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