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PBG / STP / AOS
I consider these three to be the kings of the oil sand plays. PBG is probably in a different class than itself.
I used todays pullback as an opportunity to get back into STP. I had been in before but sold. It took off again before I could get back in. Nice to be back. I will add further on any follow up to this pullback. All it will take to get this bunch going again is for someone to acquire some company with oil sand holdings.
I have a lot of AOS because it was as you say earlier in the fdevelopment cycle (so more potential for increase). I think STP seems a litte better run than AOS so there may be a premium paid for STP because of that.
I used to have lots of PBG when I first started getting into oilsands. I moved that over to AOS / STP when they were moving up and PBG was moving sideways. I really would like to get back to owning some PBG as it is the cadillac of the bunch with it's holding, production and processes. I'll just wait for an opportunity.
Anyone else conisder another oilsand company to be better value than any of these three?
Have fun!
JFF7
Enough procrastination for me
I have gone ahead booked a trip to Vegas to coincide with the Traders Expo Nov 15-18. If I didn't book it now, I wouldn't get around to it in time.
Hope to see some of you there.
JFF7
Doug
I think you can get some decent returns even if you are working full time and cannot monitor markets situations and act on them during the day time. However, there is no doubt you would get better returns if you could have access to the markets during the day.
The people who post on the microcap value boards provide a wealth of information that you can read in the evenings and weekends and act on. If you really need to check on things, there is always lunch hours.
You may have to adapt your style and selections a little more. Obviously no day trading type of activity. You can't plan on waiting for the opening bell action to decide whather or not to buy or sell or at what price point. Same with the action at the closing bell.
But you can look over the data after the market and anticipate where you price points should be and what the market will do. You minimize your risks by only taking part in those actions that you have a good success rate at predicting. Staying with the main sectors that are having the best success and the stocks that are favorates of the group help as well.
Timing is what you will miss the most from not being able to stay in touch with the market during the day. But that is only part of what you need to be successful at investing in stocks. This group provides much of what you need to make a good return.
JFF7
DRTKW - warrant site
Thanks for the link. Even better than the one I was looking for.
JFF7
Does anyone remember a link to a site that used to provide valuations of warrants of mining companies?
I can't find it anymore. I thought I origianlly found it as a link off of Kitcometals.com but I don't see it there any more.
JFF7
QUA warrants
I might trade QUA shares on the way up but not the warrants.
Level 2 shows there is only 2500 warrants available on the ask. That's out of approximately 6 million. What's with that?
JFF7
QUA upgraded by two analysts
QUA was upgraded from 17 to 19 dollars by BMO and from 17 to 25 dollars by Raymond James.
Copper is cooking.
JFF7
New reserves for HBM
That should be really good for HBM. That was one of the concerns expressed by some people. That they did not have many proven reserves. Even though each year they increase reserves more than they produced. Their main operations is located in such a mineral rich local, it 's hard people could have had any concerns.
HBM...up up and away.
JFF7
Yes I am holding my QUA. Copper is still hot.
QUA release production numbers prior to the quarterly earnings. The production numbers for the 2nd qtr should be out in the next week or so.
JFF7
Sold some metal today
Sold ADA a couple of days ago and then sold SGR and HBM today. Trying not to get greedy. Taking 10-20% profits wherever I can.
I think the market is getting a little ahead of itself. Peaking too early, well before earning even come out. The AUR purchase certainly acted as a catalyst. I think this is especially true for HBM which a lot of investor equate with AUR for some reason I cannot understand. I expect HBM to to most it is running the last week of July and the first two weeks of August. Just prior to earnings coming out and for a couple of days after.
Copper plays are strong. For how long? I don't know but QUA is still under a trailing P/E of 5 even with it's recent run up. Still holding that one in shares and warrants.
After copper is finsihed running, it will be another metal's turn to run. Which one? Moly? Nickel? Zinc?
JFF7
OT: Agri-based stocks
Does anyone have any favorate boards that focus on agri-based stocks?
JFF7
Bigpike - BMC
Remember that even though BMC is coming off of hedge in July, the effect of the hedging takes a quarter or two to work itself through the accounting books because of the way mining companies account for sales. The full impact of coming offf the hedge does not hit the bottomline fully for awhile.
Good luck with your nickel choices.
JFF7
Bobwins - SGR.v
Thanks for the update. It shoulds like we should not expect too much from SGR for the next while from the company side. Only wild card is if the POG goes up over 700 but even that should not happen until the summer doldrums pass.
Do you remeber who you spoke with from SGR?
JFF7
PS. Bought a little ADA this morning. This is my third time back into it. Each time always at a lower price. Wish I knew what was going on here. It looked to me like there was an iceberg sell order at 1.01. Makes me a little nervous to be buying in at this point. Maybe everyone else is just like me though. The trading seems to be spooking people a little.
Bobwins - warrants
I have owned warrants in a few different stocks now. I really like them so far. I bought BWR warants at 30 cents, watched fall to 11 cents and now they are 1,78. Unfortunately after the scare at 11 cents, I was happy to take 50 cents for them. Left a lot on the table though.
Warrants are great if you really like the longer term future of the company and the warrants have a lot of life left. If they are just coming to the money, so much the better. But because they are less liquid, you can't buy too many of them.
I can see why people buy the private placements and then sell the shares and keep the warrant. You could have bought San Gold at 1.00 and sold today at a quick 6% profit and kept the half warrant for nothing. A low risk way to have a potentially big return in the future with a quick profit and no long term capital tied up. That is one sweet deal. In my case though I have kept my shares (too greedy?)
Have fun!
JFF7
CL001 - Gold stocks
- Favorite golds
Try San Gold if your not already there. Their sitting on a lot of ounces, are just gearing up production to higher levels, have all the financing they need for a while, and the share count is still not that unreasonable. Ramping up production has been slow though. News has been slow to come out but they have lots of good news they have been sitting on and it is now flowing better.
Trading at 1.03. I am expecting 2 dollars before the end of the year but it could go to 3 if gold prices are favorable.
JFF7
Bobwins - SGR
I think they are at the Vancouver show.
Please try to confirm if they are now running the mill all the time? They were running two weeks on and two weeks off but the rumour is that 4 weeks ago they went full time.
Would also like to know what capacity they are planning to upgrade the mill to with the new PP money.
Ask about the stability / quality of their workforce. They have had a slow startup from my point of view because there has been a lot of turn over (keeping standards high for safety reasons?). This is a main impediment in my mind to them gearing up production to the levels they have the capacity for.
When is the next report due confirming their resources (ounces in the ground)?
Please and thanks, as always.
JFF7
NUTS Nickel stocks
I am also bullish on nickel stocks. I think this metal has the most endurance of any of the base metals over the long haul. Maybe it is the combination of the many uses of the metal where it is hard to substiitute and the fact that nickel sulphide deposits are so hard to find in quantity.
Back over 20? Is this merely a technical bounce? Maybe, maybe not. Only time will tell. I think nickel will continue to trade in the 20-22 range for the rest of the year. It took a general base metals market downtrun, the subsitution cycle to start again, and a LME rule change to pull nickel off it's highs. Nickel's a lot tougher than people give it credit for.
Cl001 is a great swing / value trader with really good market timing who really likes to be right. And his track record speaks for itself. If your looking to maximize your returns and time the market, a great buy at the high can easily turn negative much lower if you think the trend is still negative and you see much great opportunities elsewhere trending upward.
I think I tend to be more like you and stay with the long term value and wait for it to be realized. Part of that is because I cannot follow the market during the day. If I could though, I would also be trading in and out of stocks a little more based on what the market trends were doing.
JFF7
Bobwins, SGR
Yes I finally bit the bullet on this one. The drilling results were just too good. I may have to wait a while (still not convinced they run a very efficient business because of their track record of getting into production) but the results will be worth it.
I bought into the recent PP that comes with .5 share warrant at 1.25. That alone is very attractive. It may take some time to gear up productio to sighnificant levels but if GOLD heads to 700 dollars an ounce the effect on the share price will be the same. The paralells to Goldcorp are nice.
Best Gold buy I see out there.
JFF7
Here comes India,
Their demand for metals is 2 or 3 years behind the China in the consumpion curve. Not saying they will consume as much as China (mostly manufaturing as opposed to India's service based economy) but the rate of increase in consumption will lokk like China's.
Their consumption of base metals is definitely on the rise. Don't let the short term situation shake you out. It can't last long.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/2109108.cms
JFF7
bmc AND OTHERS
Managed to sell some BMC at the open after seeing the barrage of news saying nickel should go down. I especially liked the one that said nickel prices should fall to half the current price. It's seems like a full court media blitz now on "nickel should go down".
A lot of today is just the general market going down.
I rebought my BMC and a little more at the end of the day. Managed to avoid about 6.5% of the 9% loss today. Not so lucky on other nickel holdings.
PFM was up well to day so that may have salvaged the day from being too ugly.
I am not certin how long this general market down turn will go on but if the market does rebound, nickel stocks should participate in the bounce. But I am sure we'll see much more negaitive media coverage for a few weeks. Sooner or later they will have to find another story though.
JFF7
Nickel prices
There was another article as well this morning that called for prices to drop. The more I read about people expecting it to happen the more concerned I get that it wouldn't happen.
We'll see if people are really ready to take inferior pig iron (with a 12 -15 dollar costs?). It certainly wouldn't work for hybrid cars or all those nuclear plants they want to build.
JFF7
Xstrata / QUA ?
Don't even suggest that buyout. I really think QUA is a good buy and mold. They have several project in various stages of progress and have the cash or cashflow to develop them.
They may have to partner with someone on developing their Moly.
Well positioned for long term growth. I would hate to see them taken out so early in their development.
JFF7
Cl001 - nickel prices
Are the nickel investprs ready for a decline in prices based on an increase in inventories. I hope not.
In my view, junior nickel stock prices are already repressed. If they can go lower, all the better the bargain for whn they come back. All metals have to peak and drop sometime. If nickel can do it sooner than later, all the better for me while I accumulate on the dips.
Today's inventory increase andprice drop should help.
JFF7
I am stil buying BMC. The PR by SMY is obviously driving some to sell their BMC even though the 10% reduced production is for the Sally May project (not the JV that BMC is involved in). Mostly guilty by association, I guess.
The forecast for the Lanfranchi JV project (8000 tonnes) that BMC is a oartner in is less than Sally Malay was projecting earlier but is still in line with what Capital Research (7500 tonnes) and Versant (7500 tonnes) are projecting. It looks ike Sally Malay is not very good at under promising and over delivering.
The Sally Malay news does not take much away from the real story. That production for BMC is projected to go up 45% in the next year at the Lanfranci project and that the hedge (at an average of $5.66) ends in July. At today's $23.00 nickel price that is an increase of over 300% more revenue just on the price. Add on top of that the 45% increase in production and you have a lot of increase in value going forward.
However, your right that Moly and Zinc look really attractive right now. Copper is looking real good on the inventory side as well (my QUA warrants (copper) are going up much more quickly than they should but I am not complaining). If only there weren't so many good possibilities!
JFF7
LBE.V, BMC.V,
Both these junior nickel miners present great opportunities going forward. In light of worries of increased nickel LME inventories and reduced nickel LME spot prices, these stocks have stalled over the last few months. (The change in approach to McWaters also hurt LBE but this was the right decision because it will give them acces faster to the higher grade nickel at the deeper levels).
There has been some weakening demand in Europe and some substitution going on in Asia. This will help keep nickel prices from going too high. However, the overall high demand for nickel will keep the nickel prices high for at least a few years to come (not unlike many base metals).
I think now is a great time to start replenishing my holdings in nickel juniors. I like both of these companies going forward as they will be increasing production significantly over the next year. Even if nickel price pull back 20% from their highs, these companies can easily have share prices 100-150% higher from where they are now.
There are some updated research reports coming out now so I am starting to accumulate more while the prices are still low. The market is starting to wake up to these two great nickel juniors again.
I expect to see more volatility in the near future. If the LME nickel inventories can increase and spot price decrease, there could be some great opportunities to buy on the dips. But given Nickels consistent low inventories and high prices (didnt pullback like copper or zinc), I have started building up my holdings in these two great nickel juniors.
With BMC coming off hedge in July (average price they are getting right now is only 5-6 dollarsas opposed to the 22-24 dollar LME prices), BMC is an especially great value buy.
JFF7
Base metals getting ready to rumble again?
No science here but an observation that the base metals are rebounding a bit. Nickel and copper stocks seemed to do well yesterday. Could be a technical bounce but the difference seemed to be the increased activity on some of the boards. A lot of nickel boards alive again with positive forward looking comments. Even a number of positive articles posted. Even the oil sand plays did well yesterday. A positive GDP report yesterday for Canada as well.
Looking for zinc, nickel and copper stocks to gain ground for a few sessions.
JFF7
Ptch - Bobwins
don't they also own shares in MENV?
Have you looked at NPE yet?
So many great little oil sand plays.
JFF7
First Daily Win
Wahoo from the back of the pack.
Still in the hole though so lots of work ahead. Going to need a new more daily wins or at least a lot of top 10 finishes.
JFF7
SGR.V
I think this may be one of those companies that succeeds in spite of themselves. Don't expect results as fast as you might but it sure looks like they should get there eventually.
Have they the capital to do it? I know they made a lot of private placements earlier this year and last year. That and the slow progress has been what has kept me out of this one so far. I am constantly reconsidering this decision.
JFF7
PMACA - warrants
I don't make recommendations if I can help it but I will tell you which warrants I am buying on dips. BWR.wt and Qua.wt. Both have a number of years to go before they expire and I believe in the value of the underlying companies.
Liquidity is always an important issue for me with warrants. I don't want to buy so much that I can't get out quickly if things go south.
That's my two cents on the subject.
JFF7
Most inventories down again except nickel. Prices rebounding a little.
I think I will use this as a last opportunity to lighten up a little on the metals. The junior oils are continuing to do well. I expect the base metal stocks to be soft until mid to late June and then start the climb up again. The market will not ignore the earnings that are being posted and the market will build with the anticipation of those earnings reports coming out in July.
China's demand is here for the long term although their drawdown on LME inventories will fluctuate because of their use of their own strategic inventories. I get the feeling they like to stir things up so that the prices have a chance to pull back before they continue their buying.
One thing I am doing as a stragey is switching from stocks to warrants. The warrants have fallen faster than the stocks on a percentage basis. Conversely when the stocks go up, the warrants will rise faster. I am making this switch though for only about 25% of the amount of base metal stock I am holding. This strategy obviously can only be applied on stocks with long term warrants. It also assumes that the stock metal price will climb again. If they fall, I lose more value faster. But on a risk reward basis, I like it.
JFF7
SKillz1
yes you have my trade recorded correctly. Thanks.
JFF7
NUTs
Could they not be paying a premium for Lionore for it's ACTIVOX processes?
I am trimming some of my nickel and moving it in to oil sands simply because I was too concentrated in base metals and the oil stocks are on the move right now.
I hope your right about the base metals. My feeling is that they will be weak until mid to late June. In the meantime, there is money to be made in the oil stocks and maybe the gold stocks as well.
JFF7
IEAM
Yes this one is throwing off mixed signals.
I like that it recently moved to the Nasdaq and that they have executed on a share repurchase plan and that the CEO has been buying but I worry about the loss of a CFO recently and then his replacment gets sick just before earnings come out?
Anyways, I'm in for a bit but not risking much as there is too many mixed signals.
JFF7
Cl0001 stockhouse problem
yes it happenned just like that to me once, It has not happened again since.
JFF7
Mr Sheep (without cash)
wow.... I looked at that set of stocks and felt like switching a good portion of my portfolio into those picks. I think this Mr. Sheep is going to be back in great form. A good sampling across the board.
As long as there is no general market pullback, Mr Sheep (without cash) is going to do real well. Too bad I only own one of his stocks. I've looked at seriously or have owned 4 or his other 5 picks.
Good luck Mr. Sheep!
JFF7
HBM
I will try to own HBM again but instead of trying to pick the bottom, I will be trying to pick the start of the move up. I don't mind giving up a bit of the climb in trade for not tying up my money waiting for the climb to start.
JMO,
JFF7
BMC now has pink! BRLTF
JFF7
Good article on how the LME works.
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/213136
JFF7