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2020 is not safe due to large notes eligible for conversion around 4/2020. 2021 and 2022 should be great call options right after that 4/2020 conversion is done.
It sounds like a partnership with those industry leaders is ACB's best chance of success.
Do you expect the same result with cannabis derivatives?
hope not 3.5 could break today
Whats the next level of support on the chart after 3.85?
Hmm i expected the price to get around these levels earlier in the week. Now im wondering if its stays around here for awhile or drops to 2s fast.
What is a fair value for ACB in your opinion based on asset value and executed business plans.
Yes mj sector is already gapping down. ACB could see 3.85 break today.
No news on CGC and ACB and they are both up after being red this morning. Are you thinking its another short cover before heading lower or is this a confirmed reversal?
Yep news out and already back down premarket
"Due to the locked in conversion price of $3.29 per common share, the lenders’ conversion option will be deeply in the money."
https://www.fool.ca/2017/04/25/analyzing-aurora-cannabis-inc-s-convertible-debenture-offering/
Here are all the notes eligible for conversion:
4/11/17 – Size: $75mm – Security: Convertible notes – Price: $3.29 conversion
1/24/17 – Size: $75mm – Security: 33.33mm units, including 1 common share and 1 warrant at $3.00 – Price: $2.25
10/11/16 – Size: $25mm – Security: Convertible notes – Price: $2.00 conversion
9/16/16 – Size: $15mm – Security: Convertible notes – Price: $1.15 conversion
6/8/16 – Size: $23.0mm – Security: 57.5mm units, including 1 common share and 1/2 warrant at $0.55 – Price: $0.40
5/5/16 – Size: $2.2mm – Security: Convertible notes – Price: $0.40 conversion
12/31/15 – Size: $4.8mm – Security: 9.1mm units, including common shares and warrants at $0.66 – Price: $0.53
https://www.newcannabisventures.com/aurora-cannabis-recent-financing-equity-raises/
Paying for 24 operational facilities along with construction costs are causing significant daily cash burn. 2020 should be a good year with all construction completed.
Not a good sign that ACB went down today when most other MJ and market in general were up. If the market and sector are down tomorrow, that's even worse for ACB
Clay says that if $4.05 breaks, $3.85 is the next support level. I expect that to occur tomorrow.
Hmm back to 3s tomorrow?
How is hearing that most of their upgraded facilities will be ready for production by the end of December promotional?
Reversal confirmed. Could break $5 fast tomorrow with the short squeeze.
Here is one for $3 a gram not sold out.
https://ganjagal.ca/product-category/grams/3-grams/
This is dropping fast on no news. Cant imagine how low and fast this goes on bad news like CEO resigning.
Direct link for you at the bottom of my previous post.
If 4.07 breaks as its about to be tested again, this should see 3s today.
Someone just sold 200,000 shares at 4.09
All the significant mj partnership stocks are also tanking to prices prior to the partnerships.
Article from last week coming true today.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/09/23/10-reasons-aurora-cannabis-could-fall-below-4.aspx
1. Supply issues beyond its control
To begin with, Aurora's fiscal fourth-quarter report points out that while a number of internal supply chain kinks have been worked out, there are supply issues beyond its control at this point that need to work themselves out. These supply issues concern a backlog of cultivation and sales applications for review by Health Canada, as well as the snail's pace by which some provinces are approving dispensary store licenses. These problems are liable to take many quarters to resolve.
2. Vape health concerns
Another broad concern that impacts the entire industry is the vaping health scare in the United States. In recent weeks, hundreds of cases of mysterious lung illnesses associated with vaping have been reported, along with seven vape-associated deaths. While it's unclear what's causing this rash of lung illnesses, some subsets of affected patients have revealed cannabis use through electronic cigarette devices. With Aurora being one of four chosen partners of vape device giant PAX Labs, these worries could directly impact the launch of vape products in Canada by mid-December.
A small pile of one hundred dollar bills on fire, with more one hundred dollar bills as wallpaper in the background.
IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.
3. Operating underperformance
Aurora Cannabis also isn't inspiring investors with its quarterly operating results. Even though production is on the rise, Aurora's fiscal fourth quarter sales wound up missing its own guidance from five weeks prior. Further, promises of positive adjusted EBITDA that were set early in calendar 2019 were dashed when the company continued to lose money on an adjusted EBITDA basis. It's looking more and more likely that Aurora won't turn the corner to full-year profitability in fiscal 2020.
4. Minuscule international sales
No marijuana stock has a more impressive overseas presence than Aurora Cannabis. Inclusive of cultivation, export agreements, joint ventures, and research, Aurora has operations in 25 countries, including Canada. The only problem is that it can't really take advantage of these international markets until domestic demand is satisfied -- and that's going to take some time, as described by the mentioned supply issues. In the meantime, international sales growth remains subpar.
5. No major partner (as of yet)
Investors were clearly excited by the hiring of Nelson Peltz in March, but have to be disappointed with the lack of a major equity investor or distribution partner with just three months to go before derivative products launch in Canada. Yes, the deal to become a supplier for PAX Labs' Era vape device was a solid win, but for a company with the production potential that Aurora has, it's a disappointment to still be going it alone.
A black silhouette of the United States that's partially filled in by baggies of cannabis, rolled joints, and a scale.
IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.
6. Undefined U.S. strategy
It's no secret that Aurora Cannabis has plans to enter the U.S. market, which is projected to be the most lucrative marijuana market in the world by aggregate annual sales. Yet, Aurora has been slow to develop and implement a strategy that allows it to benefit from growth in the hemp and cannabidiol (CBD) industry in the meantime. It's fallen behind a number of its peers in legally pushing into the United States' CBD market.
7. Mammoth goodwill
Aurora is a big fan of growing inorganically. Since August 2016, the company has made more than a dozen acquisitions, ultimately increasing its production capacity, expanding its brand offerings, and improving its supply chain infrastructure. But there's a price to be paid for this expansion, and it's known as goodwill – i.e., the premium paid above and beyond tangible assets. Aurora has racked up 3.17 billion Canadian dollars in goodwill, representing 58% of its total assets. In other words, it's grown increasingly likely that the company will, at some point in the future, write down a portion of its goodwill and admit to overpaying for some, or most, of its acquisitions.
8. Industrywide trust issues
Investors can also blame trust issues for Aurora's current, and perhaps continued, underperformance. We've witnessed growers blatantly ignore the Cannabis Act and cultivate illicit marijuana, and also had our fair share of conflicts of interest at the executive level. Although Aurora isn't guilty of anything of that nature, it did just miss its own revenue guidance issued five weeks earlier. Investors simply don't trust cannabis stocks, and it's begun to show in their share price.
An investor holding a magnifying glass above a company's balance sheet.
IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.
9. Long-term dilution
There's another price to pay for the company's aggressive acquisition strategy beyond just goodwill and the possibility of a writedown. With minimal access to basic banking services, Aurora Cannabis has frequently acquired other businesses by using its common stock as capital. In the past five years, the company's outstanding share count has risen by 1 billion shares, which is a tough pill to swallow for long-term shareholders who've been continually diluted with each new purchase.
10. Investor pessimism is building
Finally, take note that pessimism is building on Wall Street and among retail investors. As of July 14, 87.2 million shares of Aurora's stock were held by short-sellers (i.e., investors who want the stock to decline). But by Aug. 14, short-sellers had control of 116.5 million outstanding shares, or more than 11% of the company's total shares. Wall Street and investors are clearly sounding the alarm on Aurora Cannabis, and it would behoove marijuana stock investors to listen.
Excitement over. Everyone and their neighbor in canada is growing it. Insiders only selling this year. No good news recently. Huge operating costs and massive cash burn.
4.15 support tested 3 times could break.
Saw posts before that note holders wouldnt sell below their conversion price. If they dont sell they could lose everything so count on them taking a panic loss instead of possible 0.
Dilution is no longer controllable. Should see 3.5 by friday
Not quite, read about the 2nd death out of an official dispensary.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2019/09/05/vaping-death-oregon-man-dies-thc-vape-dispensary/2218501001/
"Died of a severe respiratory illness had used an electronic cigarette containing marijuana oil from a legal dispensary, the second death linked to vaping nationwide and the first tied to a vaping product bought at a pot shop."
With the cannabis vaping death scare spreading, I expect for very little to no excitement when Canada legalizes derivatives.
Its the cannabis derivatives that will hold value for much higher and longer than flower. In the mean time, ACB puts have done well for me.
hit new 52 week low of 4.51 today. Thanks to you i made some money by pulling out of a 4.5 strike put after we talked about the short cover pop.
SAFE banking act should cause a nice morning pop for all MJ sector however this Trump whistleblower news this evening could put a kink in that. Already an upward trend aftermarket so far.
Right on point. I was in portland recently and saw prices of $3 a gram for mid grade. Now with a massive legal market and ACB cost being $1 a gram, not much time left before the oversupply reaches that level in a federally legal flooded country where everyone and their neighbor grow it off YouTube videos.
Youve been right on the downtrend. Nice to see another chicago realist. I wonder where the bottom is. When the market is flooded with MJ, the supply is way bigger than the demand and all the MJ stocks could see record lows.
something big is up behind the scenes. I believe there is no way this hit 5.24 today without someone knowing something is coming.
Yes depends on how this sector performs tomorrow. The entire MJ sector including Cronos and Canopy took a much bigger beating and usually Aurora usually follows suit.
Yes eventually.
No doubt the revenue will grow however they borrow significantly more then they are able to repay anytime soon even with all facilities at maximum production which they are nowhere near.