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Or shorts have done better research and are ready to capitalize when bad news hits.
The company should not respond. What do you want them to issue? "An article was released on a blog that had a negative slant on the company, here is a rebuttal"
It is amateur hour to respond to blogs or comment on the stock price.
The only fundamentals that matter are the legal execution, which is best to not discuss publicly. IP investments are volatile up and down. The company will be valued correctly when the events are further clarified. Expect the same pumping and bashing until there is a final resolution.
Today's article was complete trash. But responding would be a terrible idea.
Even if he does address it quickly there are alternate routes that can delay the final process. I am not saying if they are going to happen or not. They are just avenues that investors should consider. The process always takes longer than anyone expects. Trying to determine a definitive time of events is extremely difficult. The original topic poster was asking if I had a time in mind that would yield a resolution. The answer is no.
That may be the case but there are different timelines that follow subsequent HJJ's final judgment. Possible appeals court or settlements are impossible to time and determine with the related information publicly available.
The original poster asked what my time horizon was like and when there would be a resolution.
No one knows exactly how this is going to play out if the timeline is short or long. Why anyone tries to guess or post with certainty is beyond my understanding.
Days, weeks, months, years. It can be anything.
I never said that an appeal was even going to be filed for. My point is that there are dozens of related scenarios to consider and speculating when something could be resolved is a waste of time. Ask how the November and December call holders made out trying to time and guess what would happen with the jury verdict. All losers.
No one knows. It could be days, weeks, months, or even years if Google appeals all of the way to the supreme court. Is it likely that happens? Who knows. Anyone guessing is a complete fool.
That has already been done.
vrnganalysis.com
The report is very accurate and easy to read. There is no reason to communicate the information with shareholders or future shareholders as the time related to seeing the investment rewards can be longer than anyone anticipates. What kind of value it brings to VRNG on its balance sheet is a huge unknown. VRNG management should not be discussing the specifics as it can potentially harm the current cases and future lawsuits.
When your IP is involved with litigation the company stays quiet for a reason.
So you want a PR firm to discuss the ring tone business? I hope you are not serious. The search engine is a fantasy developed by retail investors on message boards and blogs. VRNG would be idiots to enter the search engine business. The time and related costs would not justify the cash outlay. In an ironic twist VRNG would likely be infringing on Google patents if they entered the market.
A PR firm should not be discussing the Nokia IP and related cases. It is execution suicide as the ramifications can be disastrous. You involve serious declaratory judgment issues.
Oh no? VRNG was priced at $1.65 on March 29th, 2012. An article was released on a tech blog titled "Why Google Might Be Going to Zero". The stock ran to $3.25 on April 3rd. There is no relationship? There was subsequently over a hundred articles on Seeking Alpha promoting the company and listing dozens of reasons why Google needs to settle the case and can't go to trial.
I don't care who buys or sells the stocks. A PR firm is a terrible idea as you can't PR litigation strategies or updates everyday. It is not management's job to manage the stock price everyday and make decisions to support the stock on a short term view. It causes more trouble and the correct path is for management and investors to shut up until something material develops.
A PR firm will not help. If anything it will make the street view VRNG even more promotional than they already are.
The PPS and volume are down because the momo retail player had the event pass and are now onto the next flavor of the month. There is no one on the sidelines. There were dozens of seeking alpha, Reuters, and tech articles promoting the investment. It got the stock from $1.50 to $5.
The retail investors in VRNG might be the biggest collection of morons that I have ever seen. Look at the commentary related to ZTE where posters are throwing out $400M even after being shown that the number is never likely to happen. They just keep repeating the same BS hoping others will think its true.
The likely scenario is that VRNG just bleeds lower on slow volume as more speculators cut their losses or take profits and move onto the next momo stock. The only thing that gets VRNG higher is management execution on the legal front which no one knows the timing of. My experience tells me longer than anyone expects.
Long VHC since $5. I know how the game works with IP investments. No position short or long VRNG since September. The risk reward scenarios suck and VRNG investors are shouldering an extreme amount of risk for the possible rewards.
They don't need a top PR/IR firm. They need for the management/lawyers to execute their business/legal plan and for the retail investors to stay out of it. They need the investors to stay patient and not second guess every single filing or event that passes. It is a highly complicated situation which many do not understand. Investors viewing VRNG as a lottery ticket and hoping/praying that it goes up or is green for the day need to get lives.
It is not really anything. It is best when NPEs stay quiet and don't PR every legal movement. It is viewed by many as damage control as the share price continues to leak oil. Did anyone actually buy more shares because of this press release? My bet is not many.
Retail investors that know what they are doing can make a lot of money. There were dozens of blog and message board posts that were written that sucked a lot of traders and investors into the stock with get rich views. They were not based in reality. I posted in the comment section of a lot of the SA articles pointing out the flaws. Instead of researching the information, I was bashed by multiple posters with garbage bullish scenarios - see KevinPorter who posts the same useless BS on every article.
Investors need to realize that the issues in NPE stocks are not black and white and can provide hundreds of different outcomes. Timing is also impossible to figure out. Everything takes longer than anyone expects. It is a suckers game to try.
As an investor in VHC after the MSOFT Settlement, the stock stagnated because there were millions of warrants that were exercised and flooded into the market. The same problem will happen with VRNG eventually. It wasn't until all of the warrants were circulated into the float, the new lawsuits were filed, and the 3GPP declarations were made until VHC gained traction in its valuation. Investors were expecting that VHC could duplicate its success against MSOFT with Apple/Cisco + 5 other defendants - they did and big $368M. Also VHC's target market for their patents is extremely broad and will reach into the telecommunications space in a very specific (profitable way). It is not on the same planet as the Lang search patents or the Nokia infrastructure patents.
Can VRNG replicate the VHC success? Not sure. The Lang patents already took out the largest infringer. The risk reward isn't there against the other possible defendants (msoft/yahoo) who represent a much smaller % of search than Google. The Nokia patents might generate some revenues but the amount is not very clear. I would refer to vrnganalysis.com where an excellent report was written on the Nokia IP.
Investors need to stay patient as the different processes and timelines play out. Complaining everyday about the share price, shorts, and different legal filings might be the biggest waste of time on earth.
No position short or long. An avid watcher from the side who might take a long position as certain events are clarified.
Hopefully this will help.
If you think investors were able to pump the stock to $41 you are more crazy than I thought. If you think that the WP caused the stock to crash you are insane.
The 12/14 date you reference is a requirement for mediation to be completed by, there is no court date.
The 12/20 date which I think you are alluding to is a court date for final judgment that likely won't have any immediate outcome. The judge will likely hear both sides arguments pertaining to the final motions and take a couple of weeks or a month to issue his final opinion.
Apple has the option to appeal within 30 days of the final judgment being issued.
None of this has to do with the USPTO which you fabricated some kind of conspiracy and how it relates to VRNG which is completely wrong.
With that logic most VRNG investors would have sold at $5.70 with the stock being off almost 40% from the high. Right?
Not necessarily. Can you explain why it is an appeal-able issue with specific 3rd party case reference links?
GETUP is clueless how any of the fundamentals actually work. He only knows that Rambus went horribly wrong and he thinks the same thing will happen to VHC.
Here is some better advice.
It is not known what the future royalties are based on yet. 3.5% of what? No one knows definitely and I am cautious that the $120M yearly estimate that I have calculated is already priced into the stock at a $400M valuation. If the RR is less than $120M and is closer to $50M there might be trouble.
Not enough is known at this point and many including myself are waiting for management to comment or a 10Q filed with the actual numbers.
Still wrong.
The submission yesterday 11/26/2012 was by VHC where they stated how the USPTO erred in their process. VHC's response is due at the end of December. It has absolutely ZERO to do with what is proceeding in Federal court.
Your entire conspiracy theory of opinions is based one fact which you interpreted incorrectly. Why you would then translate it over to VRNG which is much different than VHC is mind boggling. No one can be this dumb. Its impossible.
New US patent application
The provisional application was made public recently.
STABLE FREE RADICAL CHROMOPHORES, PROCESSES FOR PREPARING THE SAME, NONLINEAR OPTIC MATERIALS AND USES THEREOF IN NONLINEAR OPTICAL APPLICATIONS
13/307,663
http://appft1.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO1&Sect2=HITOFF&d=PG01&p=1&u=/netahtml/PTO/srchnum.html&r=1&f=G&l=50&s1=20120267583.PGNR.&OS=DN/20120267583&RS=DN/20120267583
This should be for Indigo.
That article was extremely terrible which SA realized and it can no longer be found on their website.
"Using a conservative empirical probability of 60% for a verdict in favor of Vringo and a middle of the road jury award of $500 million (past earnings, future royalties, interest, and fees), the valuation of the outcome stands at around $300 million. Combined with a current market's approximation of the rest of Vringo at roughly $50 million, and about 40 million diluted shares, the expected value of a share of Vringo is $8.75. The gap between Vringo's current market valuation and its true valuation stems from the market's short-run volatility, the impact of rumors and unfulfilled expectations, and the risk-averse nature of stockholders. "
He completely misses the true share count and uses 40M instead of 110M, which would derive a value of $3.20.
True.
There are an infinite number of possible outcomes. The one I posted is based on successfully investing in IP public / private companies that are involved in litigation.
Keep waiting for the spike to $20. That is a great way to invest.
Your calculations are way off.
The VRNG expert witness came in at $493M in damages. There is zero chance that they will be awarded a number 6X+ what their own expert witness calculated.
This is not a bash but a reality check from someone who has been there done that in patent stocks. There is almost ZERO chance of a spike to $20.
A: it never happens. You cannot find one company that has spiked 7X on a jury verdict.
B: There are millions of options and warrants that will be in the money and exercised flooding the market with shares. There will not be enough INVESTORS to buy the rush of shares in the market. You will also have the TRADERS taking profits and moving onto the next flavor of the month.
Conclusion: If VRNG wins a jury trial in the neighborhood of $200M-$500M expect a short lived spike to around $7 which would be close to a double for most. It will then slowly bleed back to $5 as profit taking occurs and investors sit around waiting for whats next in the company's pipeline, IE ZTE lawsuit.
Do not get sucked into the seekingalpha garbage hype machine.
The willful argument should have been dead the day it was ruled on. My point is similar to Postyle's that it is laughable to consider FOSS "highly respected". Can you explain why he would be considered highly respected? TIA
Maybe you can explain why you agree with the FOSS article. I read the article and it was a pile of BS. The following is the only portion he actually got right in his article:
"In recent years there has been a fairly positive trend in the United States toward more reasonable patent damages. The Apple v. Samsung verdict is an outlier. It's a case of enormous economic magnitude, and it involves design patents, which are much more costly to infringe because design patent holders can seek a disgorgement of an infringer's entire profits generated with the infringing products."
11/666,276 is not final as of yet. It is bad PR to put out news about a notice of allowance.
They still have not PRed 11/666,319 or 13/000,700.
Possible reason for the other 2, not to give possible competitors any reason to sniff around. I think that was the reasoning at the 2011 ASM related to questions about whitepapers. Patent applications and grants have some good information in them that someone else might be able to use.
Investors are also looking for something with meat IE: contract, LSS, modulator, SLM. Not sure how a patent PR would be received without an update on the other pending items.
Application 11/666,276
Granted a notice of allowance today 10/17/2012. LWLG has to pay the issue fee within 3 months and it will go final about 4 weeks after they pay the fee.
They still have not put out a PR for the other 2 recent granted patents. I have a feeling its being withheld for a reason.
Can you explain how you are arriving to a $500M conclusion via ZTE? TIA.
Interesting
3 Government Clients is listed. I wonder who they are.
Air and satellite operations
Weapons technology
Technical intelligence
13/000,700 Update
Was given final approval and will have an issue date of 10/30/2012.
Application 11/666,276
Looks like it was just given a notice of allowance on 10/4. There are no documents but the transaction history has an allowance note. Will update when more information is known. They still have not PRed the patent grant in late August. Puzzling.
They are still doing lots of R&D with over 25 related patent applications filed this year and declarations for another 10+ standards for LTE Advanced.
"but there is a sharp amateur/hobbyist analyst on Investor's Village that spent an eternity putting this doc together: "
The guy that put together the whitepaper has been successfully researching/investing in tech companies for over 20 years. Just because people post on message boards does not mean that they are amateurs. Some are pros and are worth reading.
VHC
Haha. Everything. What do you need to know?
11/666319 went through Final Data Capture and is ready for issue. The patent will go live 9/18/2012.
New Provisional Application Public
http://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=WO2012075130&recNum=10&maxRec=63506&office=&prevFilter=%26fq%3DOF%3AIL%26fq%3DICF_M%3A%22G02F%22&sortOption=Pub+Date+Desc&queryString=&tab=PCT+Biblio
Some amazing research being done at Alabama and the answer to what NR stands for.
Link to the notice
http://www.scribd.com/doc/94045198/11666319noticeofallowance
You cannot link to the USPTO due to the captcha. I attached a pdf and look forward to the associated PR that will be announced. Some companies put a PR out when a notice of allowance is mailed, others due it after the patent is paid for and it is officially granted by the USPTO.