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Got Short Sales off at 520, 521 and 522 ….Super easy as there was good buying pressure from yesterday’s strong run. Will continue to scale up some more s.sales if it holds up here a bit longer or if it makes a run for a new high. We’ll see…
- JMHO
I’ve got some (short sale) orders at 520 and up to add to my overall position …beautiful setup coming up! Nice topping pattern as the DXY continues its sell off and downtrend. Recent employment numbers (reports) all indicating to a weakness in the economy with no let up in inflation = stagflation. This is the story for the first half of the year then Reality will set in as the Summer unfolds heading into the Fall and the elections. This is a once in a 15-20 year opportunity….We’ll see
- JMHO
Looks like interest rates are going higher whether the Fed wants them to or not. They have to, in order to finally break the stagflation we’re in. Still short and will re-examine things below 500-490 to see when the obvious signs of the pending recession are in full display to finally convince the talking heads….We’ll see
- JMHO
Not much of the bounce that I was expecting. Was hoping that these would have tried peaking its head back up from 515- 520 in order to add to my overall short position in order to increase my dollar cost average. Either way, this is fine….I’m well in the money with this position and in the event that the markets have another big run up again….I’ll be ready to layout some more shorts at higher prices. We’ll see….
- JMHO
One can only hope…..
- JMHO
Bought back a bit of my short position at 500 in anticipation that there’s probably a bounce due soon. If so, I’ll layout more shorts at higher prices to increase my overall dollar cost average….overall the broader picture looks as planned in that the near term top was set at the beginning of month. Looking for much lower prices by Summer and even lower by October!
- JMHO
My net short position is starting to work out. Maybe in a little early but timing the exact top or bottom is very difficult. Nonetheless it’s working out as planned….
- JMHO
Correct….the Fed will lose control soon enough and the 10 Year Treasury will be back over 5% on its own soon enough as well. That’s what the recent run in Gold has been telegraphing (ie inflation is picking up steam again). The irony here is that instead of looking for rate cuts this year they might have to start raising rates even higher to try and stop the runaway inflation that’s obviously here!
- JMHO
I bailed on this UVXY and scratched it…no profits or loss. Now that they just announced a reverse stock split- it’s not worth messing with it. I’m more comfortable with my short positions in the actual SPYs.
- JMHO
I’ve been building a short position this quarter in the SPY where my dollar cost avg is around 511.96 which means I’m down a bit but I knew going in that catching the very top was never going to be realistic during exuberance times like this which I’ve seen three times before in the past 25 years. My thinking is (was) that this quarter, going into an election, plus a whole host of other factors would push these markets to new highs but the question is how high. I’ve got plenty of powder left since each entry point are (were) very small and I’ll avg higher prices by placing slightly more amounts with each aggressive new highs. It’s definitely not for the faint of heart but this is a position for the next nine months or longer if this cycle plays out like the others before it. We’ll see…
- JMHO
Put out my last short positions this morning (for a while) but I’m good with the overall dollar cost average. Been building this position for a couple of weeks- slowly but surely- and got aggressive since the beginning of the month. As previously posted- this is very reminiscent of the year 2000. Back then it was the hysteria about Y2K, the Election (which turned out to be very controversial) and of course the dotcom bust! See some similarities especially with regard to AI (vs dotcom) hence why I’ve been seeing this first Q1 as the potential peak for this latest Bull run as the underlying fundamentals begin deteriorating rapidly.
Footnote: in 2000 the Nasdaq peaked on March 10th 2000. This year the 10th is on Sunday so I’m guessing that it’s either today or Monday that it will be the same scenario for both SPY & Nasdaq. We’ll see….
- JMHO
This is what I’ve been counting on for the past month or so. The DXY selling off but still not enough to buy (ie support) the markets at a certain valuation. It started a couple weeks ago but then it reverted back to normal (ie every DXY sell off = market rally) when the markets hit new highs recently. Still playing out like Y2000 when markets peaked in March of that year before starting a multi year downturn….We’ll see if history repeats (or rhymes) itself.
- JMHO
As well as some more shorts….anything that can be sold (short) over 496 to help increase the dollar cost avg to above the 490s. This continues to rise right into March- as previously noted. We’ll see
- JMHO
I’ve been buying from $7.70 down to its recent lows while also scaling an intermediate short position in the SPY. It’s always most painful at or the near the “tops” as the exuberance is the most irrational. Seen this picture about four times in the past 25 years and it almost always plays out the same. We’ll see if this time is no different…
- JMHO
Probably so and about a month ahead of what I calculated it would happen. Although I can see them trying to pump up the market at least one more rally to new highs before March….Let’s see
- JMHO
Yes it is and notice how it’s selling off as the DXY is selling off as well? That’s the signal, that I mentioned yesterday, that I’ve been looking for which is the divergence from what’s been happening for the past several months! In other words- the valuations are too high at these levels no matter how many dollars they try to sell to try and prop the markets up! The Bond market (10 Yr) is also signaling that as well as yields are collapsing from their recent highs….indicating a weakness in the economy up ahead! Contrary to the recent “Goldilocks- soft landing BS” from the media and government. We’ll see
- JMHO
Starting to get the first signs of the signals I’ve been looking for….the sell off in the DXY while at the same time the SPY (and the equity markets in general) not being able to rally vigorously with each downdraft in the DXY. In other words- the opposite of what’s been happening since the lows from October ‘23! This could be indicative that the real (weak) fundamentals are slowly seeping out into the institutional trading desks that is telling them to sell every rally especially when there’s new liquidity coming in (ie from the sell off in the DXY) instead of buying it. We’ll see but this is playing out almost exactly like Q1 of 2000…..
- JMHO
Had a decent day yesterday in that I was able to increase my dollar cost average (in my overall short positions) which is now hovering near the high 487-88s but it was a bit painful nonetheless as the move up yesterday was very aggressive. Will try to lay out (some more s. sales) where I can above 491-93 range in any bounce this morning. My eyes are still on the DXY because it’s so weak in that any attempt to rally past 102-03 range is met with immediate selling and that’s what’s fueling this rally in the market (ie liquidity) in the face of deteriorating fundamentals in terms of increasing layoffs and stubborn bond yields (ie staying above 4%). The big signal that I’m looking for is when the DXY sells off AND there’s no immediate rallies in the markets. In other words - when the markets can’t rally higher despite the infusion of liquidity! That’s the signal I’m looking for. We’ll see….
- JMHO
Yes, the attempt in the DÍA to breakout on the upside and pierce yesterday’s high and now fail to do so is giving even more sell signals. Sold (short) a bit more in that nice little pump which is helping raise my dollar cost averaging….Let’s see if they’ll attempt it again before it becomes overwhelming since the DXY is stubbornly not selling off after yesterday’s ugly move downward. Let’s see…..
- JMHO
Correct- That’s the first of the Seven Horsemen to crack and AAPL will most likely be the next since it has failed to make new highs while the other five (GOOG, NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, and META) already have. These are the cracks that I’ve been looking for as the canaries in the coal mines…..We’ll see
- JMHO
Looks like a massive top being built (bought) up here which is a perfect storm scenario brewing especially to start the year. Couldn’t have asked for a better set up (to sell into) for what’s most likely to come in the coming months….We’ll see.
- JMHO
Rare fade towards the end of the day especially considering that the DXY is still in the red. So far only slight signs of over bought exhaustion thus far but still high enough prices (this morning) to bring my dollar cost averages up high enough for my overall short position being built. Let’s see…
- JMHO
Looking to add some more to my overall short position at this morning’s gap up but also keeping my eyes on the DXY as it has completely reversed yesterday’s up move and is now heading towards the downside again. That’s the main rocket fuel here for the market’s liquidity so if the trajectory is still towards 100 (or lower) then who knows how high this pump in the markets will go. Nonetheless the scaling into my short position has been slow and steady but painful at the same time but this is a multi month trade and not for the faint hearted as in 2000, 2008, 2012 and early last year….We’ll see
- JMHO
Got off some really good shorts (adding to my overall position) at 485 this morning and purchased a good amount of UVXY at $7.70- $7.74. Let’s see what happens if not simply because the markets are over extended on the upside but the DXY worries me because it’s the main source of this liquidity (ie the lower it goes the higher the markets go up). We’ll see…
- JMHO
Might be right but not before a pull back to at least the 470 ish range before making another run up again- if that…. And even if it manages to do that leg up by March the real question will be whether the DXY is at 100 or lower (at that time) and whether they’ll let it continue it’s slide down below 100 because if it does then it will reignite inflation from the devaluation of such a drop in the DXY. That’s where most of the liquidity for these rallies are coming from. The weakness in this economy will reveal itself by the end of this quarter so other than the selling off of the DXY and the bs expectations of lowering interest rates earlier than expected…the markets will be left high and dry up in the stratosphere with nothing to continue to prop it up. Just like in Q1 of 2000.
“History doesn’t repeat itself but it sure does rhyme…” - M. Twain
- JMHO
Laying out my last short positions up here…..very powerful up move but am getting off the best prices I could have hoped for from just last week. Will try to bring my dollar cost average as close as possible to 482- 484+ range but that means I need to get some bigger short positions up here! We’ll see but am keeping my eyes on the DXY as any major pullback in that will help fuel this latest rally.
- JMHO
Laid out some more sales (short) but not as high as I would have wanted. Nice gap up though, so there might be some opportunities to get off some more at higher prices. We’ll see….
- JMHO
Looking for exactly just that (head fake) but if it does happen it would probably happen around 10:30 or so. I’m expecting new highs, at least for Nasdaq, by or before March and possibly the other indices too. The expected pull back in the DXY is what will (is) fueling this massive run but at some point there won’t be enough $$$$ to hold up the lofty gains (regardless of how low the DXY goes down to) and that’s the turn I’m betting on after Q1…we’ll see.
- JMHO
Got a small trade (short) at 477….thats it though. Should have a follow through tomorrow to sell some more north of that. We’ll see…
- JMHO
Like clockwork…. Just like in early 2000! The Nasdaq is now showing signs of taking the lead up on the next leg up while the Dow and S&P will probably lag a bit and thread water near the highs. If (and when) the DXY begins to pull back again, especially below 101 or lower, it’ll be enough fuel to propel the Nasdaq to new highs by March. I’ll be laying out some more shorts above 477 again from the profits from yesterday’s buys (covers). The real signal that I’m looking for is for the eventual breakdown of the DXY and the markets “not” going higher (ie not enough liquidity to keep the markets propped up despite the dollar weakness). Right now, the opposite has been happening which lends me to believe that this rally still has legs. When the opposite begins to happen it’ll be the BEST sell signal we’ll get to go full blown short….we’ll see.
- JMHO
Was able to buy back some more of my short positions at 470. Market is weaker than I expected at this point in the month/ year but still think they’re going to attempt to rip it at least one more time this qtr. Let’s see….
- JMHO
Good morning everyone! Looks like my short position has worked out beautifully. Am buying some of them back down here and looking for some kind of bounce later as a set up to add to the overall position. Again- this is eerily similar to 2000. If so, the Dow will thread water this quarter while the Nasdaq attempts to make a new high (although it’s really showing weakness lately) and same with the S&P. I'm still keeping my eyes on the DXY as its due for a major pull back soon which will be what fuels the next leg up
again….we'll see.
- JMHO
Can’t ask for a better set up, this morning, to position oneself on the short side. Got off some more beautiful sells above 478 and the last one close to 479. Average prices in the high 477.88s…Super move that makes getting the best prices off easier! Still keeping my eyes on the DXY as the sell off in that is what fuels these markets and will keep them propped up as long as they can. Still think that the DXY is headed towards 100 in the intermediate timeline. If so, these SPYs could easily hit 480 plus. Let’s see….
- JMHO
Keep your eyes on the DXY and so long as it continues to show weakness (ie Every rally in it is met with aggressive selling- ie money printing) then the markets will most likely try to go higher. I’m thinking that if the DXY heads towards 100 (or lower) then there will be enough liquidity to continue to prop these markets at least til the end of the quarter.
- JMHO
I’m short at avg price of 477.23 but looking for these to drop to 470 by Friday and then down to 460 by month’s end or early February before the next leg back up to attempt a new high. But the longer that next attempt takes- the more likelihood that the next leg up will most likely be a top that will set up a nice downward trend for several months…
- JMHO
As mentioned late yesterday….beautiful set up yesterday and this morning to add to my position. Have a nice short position with a dollar cost average above 477. Let’s see what happens.
- JMHO
Beautiful set up at these levels….Got off some nice sells (short) at 475.50 and up above 476. If it keeps going I’ll probably get to lay some out at 477 too. Nice!
- JMHO
That sounds like an interesting strategy. I’m definitely not a novice at this as I’ve been trading for nearly 30 years of which my best years were 2000, 2008, 2012, and 2023 (last year). That’s why I mentioned that these patterns look very similar although they only come around once every couple years (or a decade) and the idea is to keep poking at it near their respective tops why protecting yourself then capturing a big swing downwards when it starts to go your way. Made enough $$$$ on each one of these to make decent play $$$$ for a couple of years afterwards while staying out of the market for a while.
- JMHO
Just laid out a small short right above 475…looking to sell into this morning rally. Would like to see it trade above 476 too to get more aggressive. We’ll see….
- JMHO
Yeap….it’s blatantly obvious that whenever they sell the DXY- it’s the fuel they need in order to pump the markets higher. And you’re right, you can keep playing the long game and scalp here and there so long as the music is still playing. Same goes on the downside since the current trend is still on the upside. I’m scalping here and there but mostly betting on intermediate tops setting in and within the next month or so a multi year top before it becomes obvious to everyone that the economy is truly weaker than the government reported and then the inevitable recession won’t be able to be held off despite everything they throw at it!
- JMHO