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This scenario doesn't necessarily fit the "going it alone" slogan anymore. AUPH is exchanging revenues for royalties and attempting to get reimbursed for prior regulatory and testing expenses. The recent dilutions make less sense now.
Pardon a newbie for busting in here. The street is all over Gilead. It forgets that the rheumatoid arthritis treatment was approved in Europe and Japan at the same time it was being held-up here. The street is also quite critical of the high-priced buyouts of these cancer research companies. I have followed this company for a long time and am interested in your feedback.
No takers?
Another nice start to the week: a million shares traded after two hours, and up 80 cents. We're getting there.
So......what really happened here?
We have a solid first hour of trading on our hands today: 337,000 shares and up 35 cents. We're at the top of the normal trading range for AUPH, but, as we get closer to approval, I expect that trading range to rise.
I totally agree with you, Jesspro. Some traders, however, are only looking at charts for the volume and momentum signals and don't give a hang about products and prospects. They're just as impersonal as their computers.
Well, Slim, not every holder of AUPH is in it for the same reasons we are. Traders historically have had success in the biotech group because of the volatility of that industry. They don't care about VOC for whatever indication.
Today was a good trading day for Aurinia given the listlessness of the rest of the market. The volume was only about half the average daily volume, but there was a noticeable lack of sellers today. We'll take it.
This continued uncertainty over the extended patent issue, IMHO, is a major catalyst for whatever downside volatility we continue to get.
Good post. The aftermath of the London conference is offsetting a few analysts cutting their price objectives on the stock. We're finally starting to see a meaningful increase in volume on the upside. I continue to believe we will have a result before January 1. Phase III results left little room for debating negatives that don't exist.
Oh....for sure. These advice houses have their own agendas
MF intimated that the recent stock weakness could be related to the company Not being able to effect a quick rollout because of AUPH's size.
This morning, the Motley Fool produced an article suggesting that a potential Aurinia buyout at the hands of Biogen would make good sense.
I hope a few larger sites than Yahoo News carried this important update. The stock should be working its way back toward twenty off this news.
One would hope the company has some ongoing test results from units sold previously in the developing world
Jess...what's the chance that the DES efficacy situation is related to dosage? Was the same dosage administered that successfully took on Restasis? Something isn't quite right here.
Pardon a newbie from crashing the party. Resistance on this stock is where support used to be: 30. The stock is being treated like there is a threat to the current dividend. Interest rates, in general, remain close to rock bottom. The demand for this dividend should put T in the low forties.....yet is languishes below 30. The Direct TV debacle needs some closure to conserve cash. Time Warner needs a restructuring. This company has its work cut out for it going forward.
My memory tells me that one of the big reasons the company carried DES forward into higher clinical trials was the head-to-head competition with the Allergan product...already approved. I am interested in viewing company feedback regarding the comparisons between early and present trials to see if a testing glitch might be the culprit. Just like the overall health of the LN patient between Phase 2 and 3, the progression of DES and the stage where it was treated could be significant.
Pardon a newbie for sneaking in here to ask a question: What will it take for this company to get its plants inspected so it can launch some product?
I still expect a buy-out. Sometimes a company can't thwart a hostile takeover because the employees don't own enough stock. The institutional ownership doesn't care. It just wants to make money. We also would have the chance to stay involved by acquiring the stock of the buyer....which probably would drop when the buy-out is announced. This product should be the proverbial blockbuster. Aurinia just might not have the tools to fend off a suitor with deeper pockets. I wouldn't be surprised if the suitor turned out to be a company that had failed in its own attempt to create a LN product.
The application of the "use patent" should be in force here.
Hence the subdued numbers put out by analysts who know the score but are CTA until the first approval is secured. Once the first approval is done, the additional applications usually aren't quite the same level of PIA. There is competition in the rheumatoid arthritis space. Gilead just had an NDA put on hold, requesting more information, but it was approved in Europe and Japan.
Yes....a big FDA meeting where the FDA is going to tell GTHP, for the fourth time, what it has to do to get LuViva considered for approval. Do you all realize how much longer this issue is going to drag out?
Analysts have to CTA and hedge their bets in order to keep their jobs when recommendations go awry. Low-balling revenue estimates and price objectives is just part of their process. The centuries-old need to have a working lupus-nephritis treatment available is an amazingly compelling story. The FDA is on the brink of allowing a fledgling company in the door that succeeded when a few of the FDA's big-old buddies failed. The DES story is equally a game-changer because it shot an existing, approved product, created by a huge company, right out of the water.
Knock Knock: Who's there? Guided. Guided who? Exactly
Those two call groups collectively represent only 86,700 shares of stock. Selling the three week calls, given the premise of no news, is a way to gather a little income while waiting. The risk is a positive announcement from the FDA before the expiration date.
AUPH's analysts don't seem concerned about this bit of insider selling that has taken place. One could surmise they often see it happen within the companies they cover.
Slim.....I don't know anything you don't know. I am just looking at the timing of the recent events. The NDA gets filed, and then the offering quickly follows. Why? The market, overall, has rebuilt itself and is now closer to its all time highs. Sentiment is more positive. The Phase III test result was a powerful specimen. The company says we'll have an answer by the end of January....yet it could come sooner. I believe that cash readiness also is an issue. A quicker approval could trigger, at the very least, a strategic alliance to catapult the launch. That's all: no rocket science or insider info here.
The money was raised, and the dilution occurred, around the six month mark for review and approval. Had the Phase III test not been such a slam-dunk, I would not have raised that money and probably would have begun trying to merge with someone for whatever the market would bear. Lupus treatment candidates have failed in Phase III tests in the past. I think we're seeing an exuberance of confidence, yet I would still like to see a breakdown of where the projected spending would be. The company obviously is trying to go it alone. I hope the dilution won't dampen the spirits of a potential acquirer.
Okay, Greggors, I'll end this subject with this observation. Where Rotary is concerned, The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is targeting just one avenue of service: saving the lives of children. Rotary has been responsible for the vaccination of approximately 2 1/2 billion children against polio. The WHO, and CDC have been right there with us. Many times it was their own people who were murdered. Case closed.
Alright, you all. A Bill Gates debate is NOT why we're here. Let me try to put this dilemma to bed. I don't admit to knowing everything about the groups to which the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation contributes or controls. I do, however, know more than a little bit about Rotary...so listen up. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has gifted approximately 400 million dollars, twice in this decade, to the Rotary Foundation (the #1 rated charitable organization on the planet in 2019 according to Charity Navigator). Rotary is matching those funds to accelerate the total eradication of one of the most horrendous diseases in the history of the planet: Polio. When Rotary began this trek in 1985, there were still 350,000 new cases per year throughout the globe. When I was a child, polio also used to kill that many children per year. Sparing a lot of details, I will close stating that the total number of polio cases on the planet has been under 200 for each of the last four years. The only two countries left are Pakistan and Afghanistan, and that effort is extremely difficult. Rotary, The WHO, CDC, UNICEF, and the Gates Foundation are the five players supporting each other. Nigeria recently was certified polio free for a second time in the last fifteen years. Two hundred polio aids workers have been murdered by radical jihad because it believed the vaccine would either kill or sterilize their children. So.....let's move on.
Bio....stock charts of biotech companies awaiting approval/denial on their first products look a lot like AUPH. They get stuck in a trading range until the rumor mills begin....people spewing what they think they know. The NDA filing was recent, and we're in a finnicky market environment anyway. So we can't expect any pertinent news until the evaluations are complete. Just relax. Remember how impatient we became awaiting the Phase III results.
Seeing more "big boys" drop the ball in the lupus and dry-eye arenas serves to fuel my continued enthusiasm for Aurinia's prospects. We have to remain positive. Opportunities for suitors with deep pockets just increased. The medical community knows how tough treating Lupus is, so my attitude is that the FDA is going to look for ways to approve it instead of knocking it down. Voc isn't just going to be "best in class". It is going to become the "standard of care" treatment. I just can't see a larger competitor, that developed an internal infrastructure based on lupus product distribution, allowing AUPH to remain independent. One of the big boys, that has been shot out of the water itself, is going to "save face" and scoop up Aurinia.
Oh, BR? I can see analyst price objectives rising now that two big-time major players are finding difficult footing.
It's interesting to me that a lot of the selling seems to take place quietly in the "after hours". Who and why?
Good morning, Winepro1. I have only been attached to this website for a couple of years and missed the fiasco and eventual WIN on Ariad. Looking back at older posts, Hotrodder1 was an enthusiastic supporter of the Auph process, and I am glad he was able to witness the initial break-out from the 2s to 21. People who bought in between 4-6 over the last year are going to reach "long-term" status on their holdings in 2020. I hope they hang in there with AUPH, because it really does look like there is a lot of room for growth ahead of us. We can all hoist a glass in honor of Hotrodder1f in Las Vegas some day. RIP.
This isn't an SBA issue. It's an FDA issues with almost a decade of dilemma that, unfortunately, the company hasn't been able to reverse.
Nice day today. Up 1 1/2 with over 2 million shares traded.
"...we expect to submit an improved study protocol"...……? The main problem with this company is its inability to give the FDA what it wants. That's why it was turned down three times, and, today, that's still why the company can't get it right. What type of improper protocol was the company employing over the last three years to gather its data? Geezil….this is stupid!~