Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Thanks for putting out the details of the ICER report. That company seems just about as truthful as most of those so-called "fact-check" organizations.
We're all hoping/expecting a buy-out at some point. What if, for whatever reason, that buy-out doesn't come? Then the company had better be ready to launch product, keep the efficacy levels as high as the tests, and make sure the cost of the product to the patient will be covered by insurance. That's why I thought it was important to mention getting familiar with ICER.
Aurinia presented additional efficacy stats at the National Kidney Foundation Spring Clinicals yesterday
It might be in everyone's best interest to look up ICER on line and find out why it's really on the planet.
Moosedogger: Thanks again for the ICER Evidence Reports from March 12 and March 26. Anyone who read both reports thoroughly, several times, like I did, could be wondering who influenced ICER between those two dates and why those two reports were so far out of alignment. Realizing that the first report was followed by a further cleansed final report, the rapid response and CR times were not really highlighted in the final report....hence.....no need to report on true cost effectiveness. I would like to read Jesspro's opinion on the matter. I also am scratching my head over the location of the elusive Professor Galt.
That's exactly the answer for which I was looking. Time of treatment being equal, VOC is more expensive. Given the super-quick response time and potential CR time, however, VOC rules. The premium put on an oral solution also has to be figured into the equation.
The March 15 article had Aurinia quoting ICER's praise for cost effectiveness. So what happened?
The response rate of Voc is obviously superior....and not just a little bit superior. The oral form also is a huge plus. So what makes it so much more expensive?
Aurinia partnered with the NKF this month to focus on awareness of LN.
I think a potential competitor is participating in a little mind game in order to give it a lower entry point.
What kind of numbers do you two actually expect given that APTO is a start-up equivalent company trying to develop its first product? Acute leukemia kills people in a matter of days/weeks. Any improvements in longevity is highly significant.
Agreed, Jess. Part of the recent printed comparison, however, appears to be a GSK wax job. The re-entry into the dry-eye arena is encouraging.
I can't imagine GSK not chomping at the bit to own this company. I also can't imagine Lilly not chomping at the bit to keep GSK from buying this company.
Agreed. The Wainwright call was timely. One area where many biotech investors don't spend much research time involves the ease/difficulty of the insurance industry (the payee) to pick up the tab. It's not an issue here, which adds to the efficacy of the product.
ooops….I meant "two" consecutive positive closes.
We need to remember that changes to the DOW 30, the S&P 100, and the S&P 500 are creating more volatility because of the entry of more information technology and biotechnology companies to those indexes. Case in point: Just a few months ago, the "powers that be" tossed Exxon-Mobil, Pfizer, and Raytheon out of the DOW 30 and replaced them with Salesforce, Honeywell, and Amgen. I expect some institutional buying related specifically to Aurinia to begin anytime. Potential suitors will create competition for Aurinia's shares at some point, and I want to buy more after we have to consecutive positive closes.
It's not unusual for the price of a biotech stock to decline after the initial approval. Think about the psychology of the situation. Yes...the approval process was lengthy...but now....Aurinia has to go out and sell the thing to justify what, we all think, is a greatly undervalued stock.
GSK also has this information, and, IMHO, would be the ideal candidate to take out AUPH.
We're having to exercise as much patience post-approval as we did pre-approval. It's less fun but still necessary.
All of us should be old hands at the concept of "patience" by now. The volume, so far today, is falling off yesterday's mania. I wonder if it will drop another three points and retrace the entire initial rise. I would be a buyer all over again. The largest obstacle has been overcome.
Short term traders getting out are offsetting the short squeeze taking place.
Ten million shares traded in the first ten minutes.
The lessons learned here should be invaluable to all of us when it comes to future biotech investing. Good news via test results WILL create enough optimism from within to cause dilutions to shareholders as companies raise funds for a variety of reasons: increased payroll, the next stage of trials, product launch funding, patent infringement suits, etc. etc. etc. Just expect those dilution announcements. They all do it.
The biggest factor is to be sure we have enough patience to wait-out the process. Aurinia gave us many opportunities to acquire more shares at rock bottom prices. Do you remember how low the stock was trading right before the Phase 2 results hit? Then we had the uncertainty of the overall health of the patient population affecting that trial.
Biotechs thrive on news. When the news becomes a mere trickle, prices drop because the impatient investor quits.
What I would like to see from this board is for people to offer their best biotech pick going forward. We are in unprecedented times when it comes to medical advancements.
Not only does one have to have done pertinent research in order to become a successful biotech speculator, one also has to be an Optimist.
An Optimist is a guy who thinks his wife has stopped smoking cigarettes when he starts finding cigar butts lying around the house.
An Optimist is a 90 year old guy who marries a 30 year old girl, and they start looking for a house close to a school.
So typical. Churning itself up right now. Six million shares traded at 1:45 P.M. CRT
Do we really know that today is review day? Covid has upset a lot of schedules.
Not bad. Up 95 cents on over 5 million shares just shy of 2:00 CRT (Central Redneck Time)
Morgan Stanley recently added 30k shares to its position to give it a total of about 125k shares.
The option expiration day today is much more critical for those "retail" traders who care little for the company or the process. Compared to a decade ago, the number of option prices per security, that can be played, is greatly increased. So...the volatility of an issue like Aurinia, that has an options expiration date a week ahead of a landmark FDA decision, is not unusual at all.....to me.
Yes, BR. I have followed the biotech industry for over 30 years. Trading can get crazy close to FDA decisions. This stock also remains in a trading range from about 12.80 to 14.60. Some people are merely trading these spreads. It has been easy to do lately if one was so inclined.
….nothing but normal pre-approval jitters.
Up over 50 cents on volume of well over 4 million. Today's trading was in a different league.
I am confident that Gottlieb, who always was a proponent of on-time evaluations and fast-tracks, where warranted, is familiar with AUPH and its test results. The fact that he and Doc Solomons are co-hosting a generic forum on clinical trials is most interesting.
What happened today was that Zacks lowered its rating on Aurinia from a "hold" to a "sell". ValuEngine, on the other end, raised its rating from a "buy" to a "strong buy".
Patent lawsuits cost real money. Every court system in the country is backed up.
2 million shares traded in 90 minutes with a +.90 gain during a market-shortened session with little activity in most areas. I'll take it!
Well....only six people have created the twelve posts seen in the last twelve months. This board is pretty dead, and I don't understand why. Aptose seems to have a lot going on, but no one here seems to care. I guess I'll head elsewhere and do more of my own research.
It looks like there was enough buying to offset another round of institutional selling.
I have a much better understanding now. That's why I count on this board. I looked for GSK headlines this morning and couldn't find any, so thanks for the heads up.
That approval was a year ago?....or is there something new?