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Take a look around the biotech world today. Just a random sampling: MORF, OLMA, CRSP. SRNE, APTO, ALT....it's pretty ugly everywhere. The threat of higher interest rates can cause it. The IBB too.
Volatility dropped quite a bit in December as the potential merger news cooled. Average daily volume was well over five million shares a day and has now dropped to 3.89 million shares a day. Just this morning we have seen interesting intra-day volatility. My guess is that, with each day without some pertinent information, some people will continue to throw in the towel and walk away....especially those investors who bought in the 18s a few weeks ago.
I think potential suitors received some serious holiday presents when that shelf registration was filed. The ability to get a last chance buying the stock from 17-22 instead of 30-33 can't be overlooked when we're talking about millions of shares.
Patience may be, once again, paying dividends. Up a buck and a half on close to three million shares. Scripts advancing nicely? Negotiations still in session? Something good is sending us from the 17s to the 22s in the last month.
We have a quad-witching in the marketplace anyway today with recent Fed announcements adding to the volatility.
Nice move in the first hour. Volume was moderate: about 850k shares at 9:30 EDT.
The company has a new update on its website. It also presented at a national hematology meeting. The presenter is attached to MD Anderson. It just doesn't get much better then MDA. The AML product seems to work so well at increasing dosages that the company is content to continue Phase I-2 testing at even higher dosage levels until a breaking point is reached. I think that's why the stock is down so much today. Product is stellar, but getting ahead in the testing procedure is not on company radar at this time. Something will have to give if the stock drops and stays below $1.00 for a while.
According to MSN Money, last quarter 160 institutions, in the aggregate, decreased their holdings in Aurinia by 11.12%. That being said, here are a few increases in holdings by a few of the bigger boys.
Fidelity: +9.54% Susquehanna: +58.20% Morgan Stanley: +85.06% Stifel: +35.31% Blackrock: +47.74% Barclays: +211.65% and HSBC: +409.90%.
Weak market. Weak health care sector. Big Pharma and biotech weak. Again....every day the company doesn't make clarifying comments, traders and some longer term holders will throw in the towel and exit.
I think I referred to it as a "treatment". So, on with the show. All I can say is that I have had two shots and the booster, kept my office open every day, did the sensible distancing things and wore the mask, and all remains well.
Pfizer really lucked out with its COVID treatments. It has developed the cash flow to make several major acquisitions. Thinking two years out, its war chest would be pretty amazing.
Pfizer is just one of several companies that could write a check for Aurinia...even after the Arena buyout. Many people forget that Arena had a sizeable reverse-split a while back. Pfizer has tons of collaborations but little new product of its own, in comparison to its peers.
Jess...my reading on the A2 tells me that the "black box" indictment should, at least, be amended if not dropped all together. What are your thoughts?
Highlights are in print all over the web
Stifel, MS, Blackrock, and Fidelity all added large percentages to their AUPH holdings
We haven't had any indication that there's a problem. Preliminaries seemed to be on track. Does anyone have a contrary opinion on A2?
Yep....there aren't as many idealists around as there were a few months ago. The run-up in price and then the shelf registration have changed some minds.
Jess....there are bunches of traders out there who are playing AUPH for a few points here and there....especially since the volatility kicked in again. We also have to assume that a bunch of people may have been long term investors who decided to protect their profits as this no-news gig dragged on. We understand what's happening here. Many market participants either don't know or don't care anymore. They have become traders.
That one complete response has turned into five. A $2.00 stock?
My reading tells me that Novartis recently deposited 21 billion from the sale of its stake in Roche. We know Amgen and Pfizer are awash in cash. Then there's Bristol Myers and the recent sale of its Acceleron shares to Merck. So there is plenty of cash to take out AUPH without even going into debt to do it.
Every day that goes by without a merger announcement, we have to figure that some people (traders) will throw in the towel and sell their positions. It's been happening for over a month.
A bidding war would not surprise me based on today's sustainable higher price amid over an 11 million share day so far. No one has given more than a brief, one-liner about AUPH's Japanese business partner as a potential suitor. Are we overlooking that possibility?
7 1/2 million shares at noon. Novartis is one of those "dividend" stocks that has really underperformed for the past three years. It could use a kick.
2 1/4 million shares in the first half hour. Skirting 20 again
This company has done a great job of preventing leaks...except for one: Who came up with the original BMY feed?
Most posters here are a bit frustrated whether they're newbies or oldies. Break down the whole situation, and what do we have? We have a company that, so far, has been GIA. We can't count the first quarter in the revenue argument, because almost 1/3 of the quarter was gone before we got word that Lupkynis had been approved. Revenues of six and fourteen million dollars were reported during the next two quarters with a projection of 20-25 million for the 4th quarter. All numbers were accomplished while GIA. Preliminary A-2 reports emerge, and they're positive. I am wondering if a positive report for A-2 and A-3 will eliminate the "black box". We know that AUPH has several other indications for this product. All of a sudden, out of the clear blue, we get a rumor that BMY and a half dozen other companies are interested in AUPH. GLX denies interest, even though it has a "last minute approved", but inferior product. Takeda, Otsuka, Pfizer, and Astra are mentioned with analysts speculating that a merger with BMY or PFE would make sense. All is quiet until we hear the uproar about the "shelf registration". Background on PG tells us he has used the "shelf registration" in a "strategic" manner in the past. So we wait. My own most humble opinion points to the coincidence of the shelf registration being created while the media has the company in talks with, potentially, several members of big pharma. So......is it all smoke and mirrors or is the company in the middle of serious price negotiations and potential partnerships? MHO points to the latter.
BMY should be breathing a little easier this week. First, it sold its Acceleron shares to Merck and then the FDA approved its new treatment for psoriasis.
Given this morning's market conditions, I certainly will take this rise on low volume.
Well....Merck just completed its acquisition of Acceleron today. One would imagine that BMY made a few bucks on its 11% stake....maybe enough to write a check for Aurinia.......or, at least, buy some pretty cheap stock today.
Potential suitors can acquire some cheap stock now. Part of the plan?
Just throwing this one out there for you all: Given the fact that the stock has fallen 40% from its high, given the fact the only true happening that occurred over the weekend is the re-registration of an existing registration, and given that all published presumptions about Lupkynis by journalists today have been negative, is it time for PG to clear the air, come forward, and make a public statement?
Okay...so what's the big deal? We had forgotten about the old shelf reg. until it made headlines for merely satisfying a change in domain. Sure, the timing was questionable and coincidental. My guess is that nothing has changed from a week ago. We're still awaiting word on a potential merger from several possible angles. The shelf reg. also reminds potential suitors of the company's ability to GIA. Do we have a major buying opportunity that we never thought would become available?
Interesting, but it's not an uncommon predicament. One has to wonder how many shares BMY and other potential suitors own, if they own any at all. Have any 13Ds been filed recently? The bottom line, for whatever reason, is the stock is going to be on sale Monday morning.
There are lots of reasons why a company could purchase a few million shares of some entity's stock. Most of the time it's for "investment purposes".
Eventually a 13D would have to be filed which would blow the cover on the secrecy. Look at BMY and Acceleron. BMY is going to sell its shares to Merck.
I always wonder about the potential value of the other indications for Vocs. I also think that, whoever the potential acquirer may be, no announcements will be made as long as that company can fly under the radar and accumulate millions of shares without drawing attention to itself.
I agree with you on ramping up a potential buy-out price a bit. Why? I just watched the interview with the BMY CEO. He outlined the product categories that were in early stages of clinical trials. Those trials are, collectively, going to cost billions. He also noted 85 ongoing collaborations with other biotech/pharma concerns. Many of those alliances also will cost a lot of money, because BMY, with its deep pockets, will be funding clinical trials. Yes, AUPH is off the beaten path for BMY, but BMY may not be able to afford to let go of a potential revenue stream of this magnitude from a company with an approved product that will no longer cost time and resources for more trials.
For what it's worth: October 25. A publication called the Healthcare Business Club (HBC for those of you who belong to Acronyms Anonymous) came right out and said, in its headline, that BMY was going to buy AUPH for 3.6 billion.
I scanned all the outlines for the Bristol Myers meeting today. Nothing came up mentioning Aurinia in the area of Commercial Development. One could think that, with dozens of drubs in early stage clinical trials, the company might like to have a new one that is ready to roll. The meeting is supposed to end at noon. I guess attendees who know the situation are going to have to ask the questions.
It looks like some people already are tired of waiting for news. BMY passed on buying Acceleron (it is in partnership with the company on a product anyway). The price tag for Aurinia, from what I have read, would not be as high.
Hmmmm. A week from today. We know there will be questions about AUPH. It would be very awkward if there was nothing to report after a month.