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The recent Seeking Alpha article, IMHO, should further ease fears of non-approval. I agree with previous texts. The additional hiring of marketing management would be ill-timed, and today's presentation to Cantor-Fitzgerald would be a useless exercise if there were serious rumblings leaking out.
A bunch of lower priced biotech stocks are down this year. Why? Threats of recessions and lousy business conditions, spouted by disgruntled politicians, continue to attempt to derail the flow of capital. Institutional ownership of Aurinia remains over 25%. A few of those institutions have quite large stakes. We have heard no rumblings of anything being awry in the testing camps. I am just going to relax tonight,watch The Three Stooges, and have a laugh.
People are getting antsy. We're still 40-60 days away from any preliminary results concerning Phase III. No other potential LN product can compete with this short timeframe. One could expect the stock to get a little more volatile given the continued uncertainty of the outcome. It's just a waiting game from here, and management has done all it can do for shareholders at this point.
An analyst, whose article was featured recently on this site, gave AUPH an $8.00 price objective, about 1/2 the initial price objective of some of the other analysts following this situation. Given the need within the medical community to bring a viable LN product to market unrestricted, I think all price objectives stated so far may be far below the realities out two years from now.
The high remission rates certainly don't suggest death by treatment. The company wanted to improve the overall quality of health of the Phase III trial group. Maybe that's why it has a high concentration of Asians enrolled.
This turbulent market environment is not going to be kind to low priced stocks in general. I bet some people are selling AUPH who bought in at a buck and a half three years ago. Sometimes news headlines affect common sense, and the best thing people could do is shut off the continuous negativity of the airwaves, go outside, and have some fun.
Everyone was watching the market slide, including me, and we missed the 2nd quarter earnings announcement. AUPH came in with a loss of .17 for the quarter, down from a loss of .19 in the year-ago quarter. Analysts, however, were looking for a loss of only .15. A couple of pennies per share in either direction for a biotech firm is pretty meaningless when its in the development process.
Let's call it a timing coincidence. A bunch of stocks are out there that are seasoned and pay dividends, and some of them have fallen 8%.
Markets want "certainty" in this kind of short-term adverse environment. The planet is buying U.S. Treasuries and any other kind of quality bond over here that it can acquire. The yield on the 10 year Treasury is well under 2%, and the 30 year is in the mid 2s. This "flight to quality" tells us that there is some underlying turmoil in the markets. Risky biotechs that don't pay dividends are not going to be gobbled up in this arena. Assuming everything else associated with testing lupus, psoriasis, and dry eye is equal, my guess is that the current market volatility has just created a whopper of another buying opportunity for all of you.
Ha! You're right, BenK. I forgot a few zeroes.
Penny pumpers and dumpers are the probable culprits. a 3 cent spread can make someone some money if both sides are played
The company hasn't been able to get financial backing in the past five years that wasn't highly odorous.
Everything else being equal, a double blind study is the preferred method of evaluation. Casting an overall healthier patient population should prove quite fruitful. The Phase 2 results were quite impressive in spite of a less healthy patient population.
Frankly, I'm a bit surprised that we're not looking at a $10-$12 stock right now. Bringing new management on board at this point could be telling us that the issues have been resolved and that a marketing strategy is being developed.
Phase III results are supposed to be ready by the 4th quarter. The 4th quarter takes in October, November, and December. The buy side of a call option makes that option a wasting asset. All of them have expiration dates. What if the results aren't quite ready for release by the third Friday in November? Those November calls, depending on the strike price purchased, could be worth a big, fat -0-zero. The December calls, at least, give the buyers one more month to get results before Jan. 1
European NDA analysis, historically, hasn't carried quite the same weight that our FDA commands here. Still, This pediatric SLE waiver is a huge vote of confidence on both fronts: toxicity and efficacy; on the most vulnerable part of the population, i.e. the children.
So...how is this message supposed to be interpreted? Are testing practices being waived/postponed at the pediatric level?
I was referring to the potential eye treatment competition from Allergan and not your personal perception of company spending. You must be in the "other" camp looking for more board positions than are deserved at this point.
I'd say Paul369 has a little 'splainin' to do. What say you, Paul?
It seems that everyone is a bit tongue-tied on this merger. Does Abbvie know something we don't know or is the eye therapy considered "chump change" amid the rest of Allergan's products?
Does anyone want to comment on today's announcement between Abbvie and Allergan?
The previous Faupel regime failed to correct problems, improve reporting, and comply with early FDA recommendations on how to get LuViva approved in the U.S. Years were wasted. Cartwright's regime took toxic deals to keep the doors open, sold stock with questionable timing, and is now living off what's left of diluted shareholder equity while global sales remain stagnant. A NASDAQ listing is worthless, at this point, and should be beyond his grasp anyway.
The company may own shares in a variety of private and public companies. It might even own larger positions in Aurinia's competitors. We're all curious concerning its motivations. It's not unusual for companies to seek Board representation when they own over 10% of an issue. Seeking three Board members in this case, however, appears to be potentially manipulative. I personally don't think the stock is undervalued today. Given the history of failures in the biotech world, even in P3 tests, caution always is in order. Analysts realize that a home run for Voc would render their price objectives ridiculously low. Should Voc have any major setbacks involving its Phase III trial, however, one could expect the stock to revert back to its old $2.00 water mark. I believe overall positive market conditions are helping support Aurinia's price today. If we were back in 2009-10, the stock price might still be in the $2.00 to $3.00 range.
My memory tells me Guided hired C3 of Canada to be the marketing arm for LuViva. I always scratched my head over that choice. C3 was given Asepticsure after Medizone received Canadian approval but did nothing with it either. It was all around the same time frame.
......just wondering how that company thinks it can justify a promotion to Phase II after releasing such lousy numbers. A 2nd Phase I seems in order to see how much a lower dosage reduces efficacy as well as toxicity.
This level of damage control goes waaaaay beyond the circling of the proverbial wagons. Why should the company be granted a Phase II status on its formula?
One could think tensions might also be thick with Turkey as well as China.
All I see out the back door of my own office building is idle UBER drivers waiting for a call.
This current action hardly could be considered a recovery for GTHP stock. One would have to look back 3-5 years to see the bigger picture.
I can recall, over the past 35 years, only a couple of instances where reverse splits worked out to the benefit of shareholders. The initial reason for invoking a reverse split is for a company to get its stock price up in order to retain its NASDAQ listing. The problem usually arises when company revenues are not there to support the higher price, and the stock begins to fall again. The reverse split by itself is a monetary wash, but the redeeming of shares wipes out small-medium sized shareholders along the way. GTHP is a perfect example of all-of-the-above.
Recent history is not on the side of serious,institutional funding for this company. Past funding has had some very toxic consequences for shareholders. There is no reason, from the eyes of a potential creditor, for any funding not to have similar attachments. It's certainly what I would demand if I was dumb enough to grant GTHP a loan.
This part of the 10k pretty much sums it up: Desperate for capital to the point of accepting small amounts of monthly working capital from individuals. What should a 12% repayment interest rate tell investors? The company's inability to secure any major financing over the last five years has to do, in part, with the interest rate that would have to be charged in order to offset a portion of the risk of the loan itself. The company couldn't repay a 3% loan these days.
I have read several analyst accounts of Aurinia's possible future. Every analyst is playing down the stock price. My guess is, seeing these $10-$16 dollar price objectives, that all these people are banking on it being taken out in a quick merger. Dominant efficacy and world wide acceptance aren't even being factored into the equation. Given the comparatively low amount of shares afloat, the institutional representation, and the history of industry failure in this application, a successful Phase III study, IMHO, would create a bidding war for the shares.
The company has wiped out five years worth of shareholders with its totally inadequate steps to gain FDA approval.....after the FDA told the company repeatedly what it needed to do. So a little rally here might get a smile from those who bought after the latest reverse split.....but that's about all.
I understand and hope that the stock price at that time easily would support that effort.
Billen's bio also tells us that he is capable of running with this thing alone. I don't want an early buyout if the buyer turns out to be a mediocre company. Shareholders would make a ton more money in the long run going it alone with Aurinia. The demand for this product should be off-the-charts when approved. Let the market decide what the company is worth as opposed to a potential suitor trying to steal it.
Dr. Billen has credentials that look a lot more real than the usual embellishments we see. He stayed with a good company for 28 years instead of running around the industry looking for a higher paycheck. He was with Amgen when the company's first big success stories hit: the development of EPO versus the rival product from Genetics Institute, for example.
Nice work, Eli. Unethical and possible criminal behavior abound!
Selling the hardware at cost just to get the disposable business is not helping, especially when the current sale of the disposables isn't creating enough revenue to sustain the company.
My "last chance" comment refers to creating enough revenues to support the stock price after the latest R/S.....let alone grow. They have to have the revenues or the stock will crater like it has the other times the company R/S the stock.