Short term momentum trader.
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Gold reaches $1,231...and oil is rebounding, and dollar is falling...
You have a perfect storm for JNUG and gold to spike!
Get ready to load up on JDST below $14...even as you hold JNUG...
LOL
Falling dollar, falling market, rising oil...
perfect storm for gold to spike.
JNUG should have a good shot at $4 at this gold level.
Got orders for JDST at $14 and at $13.50.
No stop limit on these orders for now.
Gold is at $1227, and if it stays near that level at 2PM (EST),
JDST should sink near or below $14 in the afternoon.
$14 is a pretty good entry for JDST,
but $13.50 or lower is even better level.
I have orders for both out there.
Trying to ride up the JNUG over $4 for now...just need one more push. LOL
$1227...now...they missed it by $12 so far. LOL
All looks good for possibly 20 to 30% pop today.
Gold is at $1227.
I would sell 50% at $4, and let the remaining ride...could go to $5
in a day or two if gold stays above $1200 level.
But set a trailing stop limit at $3.89 once it passes $4.
Gold is flirting with getting above $1200. JNUG could shoot up over $4 at opening minutes.
Yup...totally manipulated market.
Usually, gold moves inversely to USD, but in recent weeks,
gold has become more sensitive to oil as well...
But what's crazy is...sometime, GDX/GDXJ can sharply move up and down
with the gold moving much...and other times, it's opposite.
So while there are general correlation, its never consistent one day
to another.
BTW, Bloomberg had an article about how this commodity market can be
easily manipulated...and they believe it is being done.
LOL...
This is why I (do short term) trades, and try not to hold it overnight
to not get trapped on the wrong side with overnight gap ups/downs.
Who said invest in both (at same time)? LOL
Hope you had chance to cash out and not let the winning hand erode to a loss.
With these ETFs...it's best to trade both directions vs. buy and hold.
Kicked out at 3.20. Nice volatility. LOL
You are witnessing a great manipulation at work. LOL.
So in the morning, tumbling oil pulled down the gold,
and finally after lunch, sinking dollar and spike in gold
pulled it back up.
Got kicked out twice. First at 2.96, and then at 2.66,
each with .05 cents/share loss.
But picked it back up on 2.71...now up .60 cents/share.
Sold 1/2 at 3.33.
Have sell order for 1/4 at 3.60, and another 1/4 at 3.70.
Current stop limit is 3.20 for remaining 1/2.
Hit both of my high and low predictions for the day. LOL
In at 3.01 last week, and got kicked out at 2.96 today,
and back in at 2.71 with stop loss at 2.66
...as planned since last week.
Oil is tanking after lowered forecast, and gold funds are falling out of sympathy even though the dollar is falling and spot gold is sideways.
Sometimes dollar leads the gold and in days like today, oil is leading the gold down.
So to trade gold funds, you have to watch
1) Gold funds
2) Physical gold
3) US dollar
4) Oil
5) Equity markets
6) Economic news, Fed, etc...
LOL
Meant to say $1200 and not $2000. LOL.
JNUG finding little bounce in premarket as gold is flirting with $1200.
Shape Dollar rise in recent months is pretty incredible but gold refusing to fall in recent weeks is also pretty incredible.
Perhaps aggression in shorts are diminishing some and speculative longs are getting in early.
Dollar is flat but oil is tanking so it will another confusing direction day. LOL
Gold is little changed in Asia. Hovering around $1193 level.
Looks like its looking for direction from Europe and/or North America.
Though it's quiet now, I don't think they will let this sit flat.
I'm not sure of the direction but they will probably swing it about
$10 to $15 between the daily high and low tomorrow.
If I had to take a wild guess, we could see 1185 to 2000 range,
if so, JNUG could see $2.80 to $3.30 range.
In @3.01 with 2.96 stop, and still live. LOL.
I thought for sure, I will be taken out, and I will be picking this
back up at a lower price.
Still have 1 1/4 hours to go, so it can still happen,
but if it doesn't, it's low enough price for me,
and I will keep this to next week.
Got sell order at 3.20 (for today)...and now I'm taking the
rest of the day off. Time to play.
Yup...R/S always gives more room for these 3x ETFs on both sides to fall... LOL
The only ones that are guaranteed to make money are these fund providers. LOL
Likely not today, but that's how I trade.
I setup staggered entry points, and periodically they get triggered
and usually returns hefty gains.
That said, I do expect JNUG to bottom out in first half of 2015,
and at that point, I do think JNUG will be below $2 due to erosion
and gold bottoming.
But I don't worry about the future since I'm a short term,
usually intraday, trader.
Hmm...that's a tough one because your commissions will wipe out
most of your profit from an EXCELLENT trade you made.
You really need at least $2000 to make the trading worthwhile,
otherwise, paying 10 to 15% of your money into round trip commissions
is a severe handicap...and it's going to be nearly impossible to make
money consistently.
Trading is already a very challenging game to begin with...
That said, since its a small money, it doesn't make sense scaling out,
so perhaps you can hope for $22+ level to exit so that
you can at least make few bucks from this winning trade.
But since we don't know if this will reverse next week,
you should have a stop limit set at 18 so that you don't make a
winning trade and still lose big due to commissions.
Caution: Take some profits, and let some ride.
These gold and gold funds are highly manipulated,
and they are totally unpredictable.
Also these 3x ETFs are designed for short term trades vs.
long term holding as the fund has built-in erosion scheme
that will lose value each day.
If you are in profit, start thinking about scaling out as
JDST rises.
JDST will be $15 or below in coming days at some point...
this is how this fund has been trading in the past 6 weeks
as gold and oil struggles to find bottom.
In @3.01. Printing $2.99s.
Have $2.96 stop limit, and next buy trigger is $2.71 and $2.41.
I don't mind losing .05 cents (per share) on each entry
for a chance for reversal bounces which tends to be a lot more
than .05 cent moves.
At this point, I'm hoping to be kicked out at 2.96,
and then catch the 2.71s for eventual reversal back up to 3.50+
perhaps next week.
I prefer intraday trades, but I'm willing to hold to next week
if I can catch the 2.71s...
Or if my 3.01 bounces above 3.20 level, I will scale out.
Look out! Long solid green or red candle sticks in daily charts.
What that means is, once JNUG/JDST sets direction at opening,
it tends to close in that direction, which leaves solid
green or red candles.
Of course we may see brief intraday up and down volatility,
but I believe JNUG will likely trend lower towards closing.
So far $3-ish level support is holding up,
but if that breaks, we could see a quick slide to $2.70,
and in the severe case, it could reach $2.40.
That said, I'm still waiting for my buy orders with stop limits...
mainly due to the fact that gold seems to find ways to
pop back to $1200 level for some reason in subsequent days.
GDXJ is 10% from YTD bottom, yet JNUG is at YTD bottom. Why???
Looks like the difference is the severe erosion in 3x ETFs
that we've been talking about.
You predict $5, and then $2, and then buying at $3.06.
Seem quite confused...like many. LOL
This gold market is completely rigged...so I can understand.
I often scratch my head also.
I'm still holding to my plan of 3.01, 2.71, and 2.41
with .05 cent stop limits.
JDST could reach $22 to $24 today if gold tanks below $1180.
Huge job increase. How to trade now???
JNUG/JDST twins tends to max out daily swings at around 30%,
JNUG could drop to $2.40 (give or take a .20 cents or so) in the worst case.
But despite all the factors going against gold, it's been proven to be
resilient in the past 6 weeks as if it wants to find ways to bounce
back to the $1200 with or without any major changes in conditions.
It's little bit long shot, but if JNUG dips below $2.50,
I may go in big.
For now, I have buy triggers at 3.01, 2.71, and at 2.41,
all with .05 cent stop limit. 3.01 was the low in pre-market,
but my order didn't get filled...as of now.
Also, I am looking to pick up some JDST put optiosn if it spikes
above 20...perhaps around 21 to 22 area...we shall see.
Jobs report at 8:30 (EST) will cause spike or dip in USD, Gold, and market.
Buckle up folks, this is going to move quickly move up or down on the news.
In general, weak number should boost gold, and strong number should tank gold.
My 3.31 didn't get filled yesterday in AH.
This morning, I will wait for the jobs report before deciding the entry.
Filing for BK. Tanking 80% in pre-market.
MY $3.31 order is still waiting in AH...if it can reach there.
...but with $3.21 stop limit...since it's AH trading.
ECB preparing stimulus plan without gold.
Could this be the key reason why gold funds are tanking...
though spot gold is not dropping?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-04/ecb-said-to-prepare-broad-based-qe-package-for-january-meeting.html
ECB Preparing Broad Stimulus Plan, All Assets but Gold on the Table for Purchase
By Jana Randow and Jeff Black Dec 4, 2014 12:41 PM CT 18 Comments
Photographer: Daniel Roland/AFP via Getty Images
Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, addresses the media during a... Read More
Related
Nouriel Roubini: ECB QE Will Be `Too Little, Too Late'
The European Central Bank’s Governing Council expects to consider a package of broad-based asset purchases including sovereign debt next month, two euro-area central-bank officials familiar with the deliberations said.
While the proposal is envisaged to include various types of bonds, it won’t encompass equities, said the officials, who asked not to be identified because the discussions are private. They said no decision on implementing quantitative easing has been taken yet, and the composition of the program may be influenced by incoming data. An ECB spokesman declined to comment.
ECB President Mario Draghi said today that policy makers “won’t tolerate” a prolonged period of low inflation, and that officials discussed “all assets but gold” as potential targets for purchases. The council asked internal committees last month to design new unconventional stimulus measures to help fuel growth and inflation.
The ECB will be able to measure progress on its objective of boosting its balance sheet by as much as 1 trillion euros ($1. 24 trillion) when it allots another round of long-term loans on Dec. 11. The ECB holds its next monetary-policy meeting on Jan. 22.
The European Court of Justice will deliver a non-binding ruling on Jan. 14 about the legality of the ECB’s OMT program, which was credited with stopping a rout in European government bonds in 2012 by pledging to buy debt of countries signing up to reforms. A negative judgment by the court could ultimately impinge on the ECB’s freedom to intervene in sovereign-debt markets.
QE Hurdles
“By January they’ll know the TLTRO take-up, they’ll know to what extent the OMT case will be a hurdle,” said Richard Barwell, senior European economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “But the main thing is, do they agree it’s not acceptable to have low inflation? If they agree that, then they just have to work out how to get from A to B.”
The ECB downgraded its economic outlook today. It now forecasts inflation of 0.5 percent this year and 0.7 percent in 2015, with the economy expanding 0.8 percent in 2014 and 1 percent next year. A year ago it was predicting inflation and growth of 1.1 percent for 2014 and as recently as September it expected growth of 1.6 percent for 2015. Draghi said those forecasts don’t include the most recent decline in oil prices.
My usual staggered buy orders @3.31, 3.01, and 2.71.
I don't expect to see low $3s, but if it does a quick slide,
I will catch some of them.
Each order is set with .05 cent stop limit.
ECB's Draghi was having a press conference and his monetary policy
comments such as QE, rates, etc. were effecting all major markets
this morning.
Eddyimano...I'm freebie, so I can't reply in PM.
Higher oil price triggers inflation,
and inflation is good for gold.
In other words, things that are (usually) bad (economic crisis,
geopolitical escalations, Ebola like breakout, high inflation, etc.)
for us tends to be good for gold.
That's why its considered a safe-haven investment in times of trouble.
Lastly, the reason why gold is so sensitive to dollar is because
US dollar is pretty much standard currency for commodities world-wide.
If you don't like shorting, just play the opposite ETF.
JNUG tanking at close. As soon as we figure out a pattern, market breaks it, because its too easy. LOL.
But this is good, it's giving us more up/down plays in sideways range.
Beautiful long chart!
This is how something makes new high and gets higher.
So its all about is the glass "half full" or "half empty".
If you want gold to rally, it will be agonizing to see dollar rally,
but current conditions are set for dollar and US stock market to run more.
Check back in 3 to 6 months and see how much higher it went.
BTW, these 3x ETFs are designed to erode in value.
Regardless of which side you are holding, over a long period,
huge value will be wiped out.
So trade them in short term with stop limits and do not get trapped
into one for a long period.
Though I maintain bearish bias on gold, I trade in both directions.
In @14.37, out @15.35...
I was trying to adjusted an order from 14.01 to 13.37,
and made it 14.37 and bought the darn thing.
This time it worked out OK...but I don't like to buy $1 higher than
I wanted to. LOL
Good...don't get trapped on reversals.
This is up/down sideways volatility.
Get in and out and trade both twins.
Oil is driving up gold.
OPEC is considering cutting back production if other countries
are willing to do the same.
So...oil could possibly do multi-day bounce and
take gold (and ETFs) with it.
But I don't think that's going to happen, so I'm waiting for
re-entry in JDST for now.
Yup, NYMEX closes at 1PM (EST) and I've heard analyst talk about
depending on how gold and oil traded, they have to re-balance funds
and that triggers the theory you are describing...something that I've
noticed few weeks ago myself.
That said...folks, don't bet your life on this.
This is not a guarantee but rather more probable trade decision.