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JBI AND AGILYX...
In consideration of the vast worldwide supply of plastic feedstock available to process into fuel, the JBI vs. Agilyx discourse is irrelevant. In excess of 100 million tons of new plastic feedstock is generated annually on a worldwide basis. The US, by itself, generates in excess of 35 million tons of new plastic feedstock per year. Significantly, and in addition to the aforementioned new feedstock, are the vast quantities of plastic feedstock resident in landfills throughout the world. Given that tens of millions of tons of plastic have been dumped into such landfills for a multitude of years, it is reasonable to extrapolate that there is in excess of one billion tons of plastic residing in landfills, of which a significant percentage may be processed into fuel. Let's do some simple math...a 20 ton per day JBI processor converts approximately 20 tons of plastic into 109 barrels of fuel. Lets round down to 5 barrels per ton per day. 100 million tons of annually generated plastic equates to approximately $50 billion of fuel sales at $100 per barrel. Furthermore, the landfills composition of in excess of one billion tons of plastic, equates to in excess of $500 billion of fuel revenue. The JBI vs Agilyx discussion is rendered moot resultant from the vastness of the prospective market. There is ample room for a multitude of competitors to generate extraordinary businesses and market capitalizations as one could reasonably infer from the aforementioned facts and associated analysis. Even if JBI's technology is currently the most effective, there will be additional competitors in future time periods, but despite such new entrants, JBI will still be more than amply equipped to build a company with significant market capitalization given the huge size of the prospective market, JBI's early entre' into such market, the noteworthy exclusive access to RKT massive plastic feedstock, and future contracts likely to incorporate such exclusivity.
JBI AND AGILYX...
In consideration of the vast worldwide supply of plastic feedstock available to process into fuel, the JBI vs. Agilyx discourse is irrelevant. In excess of 100 million tons of new plastic feedstock is generated annually on a worldwide basis. The US, by itself, generates in excess of 35 million tons of new plastic feedstock per year. Significantly, and in addition to the aforementioned new feedstock, are the vast quantities of plastic feedstock resident in landfills throughout the world. Given that tens of millions of tons of plastic have been dumped into such landfills for a multitude of years, it is reasonable to extrapolate that there is in excess of one billion tons of plastic residing in landfills, of which a significant percentage may be processed into fuel. Let's do some simple math...a 20 ton per day JBI processor converts approximately 20 tons of plastic into 109 barrels of fuel. Lets round down to 5 barrels per ton per day. 100 million tons of annually generated plastic equates to approximately $50 billion of fuel sales at $100 per barrel. Furthermore, the landfills composition of in excess of one billion tons of plastic, equates to in excess of $500 billion of fuel revenue. The JBI vs Agilyx discussion is rendered moot resultant from the vastness of the prospective market. There is ample room for a multitude of competitors to generate extraordinary businesses and market capitalizations as one could reasonably infer from the aforementioned facts and associated analysis. Even if JBI's technology is currently the most effective, there will be additional competitors in future time periods, but despite such new entrants, JBI will still be more than amply equipped to build a company with significant market capitalization given the huge size of the prospective market, JBI's early entre' into such market, the noteworthy exclusive access to RKT massive plastic feedstock, and future contracts likely to incorporate such exclusivity.
VALUATION ANALYSIS -STOCK PRICE
ADJUSTED
Conspicuous by its absence on this message board, is a fundamental analysis of the valuation prospects for JBI predicated on an objective basis..not a penny stock short term trading mentality. For those of us who are long term investors, posit the following:
There is approximately 150 million tons of newly generated plastic feedstock per year-worldwide-50 million tons in the US.
JBI's processor produces 109 barrels of fuel per day from 20 tons of plastic feedstock.
The value per barrel is approximately $100.
The marginal cost per barrel is approximately $10.
Assume that JBI gives a $20 per barrel discount to the buyer of such product.
So JBI has an EBITDA of approximately $70 per barrel.
So JBI has a Net Income After Taxes of approximately $40 per barrel.
Each processor produces approximately 40,000 barrels of fuel per year.
Each processor produces $1.6 million in Net Income after taxes per year.
Each processor consumes 7300 tons of plastic feedstack per year.
There is a worldwide capacity for 20,000 processors, based on 150 million tons.
There is a worldwide capacity of $32 BILLION in Net Income After Taxes for JBI processors.
Assuming a PE ratio of only 15X...that is a Market Capitalization potential of 480 Billion Dollars!
Assuming a PE ration of only 15X...each machine has a Market Capitalization of $24 million or approximately $.40 per share.
All of this EXCLUDES the plastic feedstock that is currently resident in dump sites thoughout the world which is estimated to be 6-7 times the annual generation of new plastic feedstock!
That would be, using the aforementioned assumptions, a Net Income After Taxes of $200 Billion dollars.
This is what LONG TERM investors are focusing on with respect to an investment in JBI.
Predicated on a currently outstanding number of shares of approximately 60 million, the $480 billion market capitalization, excluding the dump sites, would equate to approximately $8000 per share. Given the extraordinary Return of Capital invested, that is $1.6 million in Net Income After Taxes on a capital investment of approximately $600k per processor, the resultant likely future dilution is di minimus, from requisite future equity issuances. Debt financing and internal cash flow should be ample to satisfy the investments in future processor manufacturing. Obviously it will take time to realize these robust valuations and excellence in execution....patience.....
PRICE PER SHARE ANALYSIS
The quantitative analysis is quite simple and straightforward for JBI's modular processor rollout. For those of us who are long term investors, posit the following:
There is approximately 150 million tons of newly generated plastic feedstock per year-worldwide-50 million tons in the US.
JBI's processor produces 109 barrels of fuel per day from 20 tons of plastic feedstock.
The value per barrel is approximately $100.
The marginal cost per barrel is approximately $10.
Assume that JBI gives a $20 per barrel discount to the buyer of such product.
So JBI has an EBITDA of approximately $70 per barrel.
So JBI has a Net Income After Taxes of approximately $40 per barrel.
Each processor produces approximately 40,000 barrels of fuel per year.
Each processor produces $1.6 million in Net Income after taxes per year.
Each processor, assuming a P/E market multiple of 15x has a market valuation of approximately $24 million.
Assuming 60 million shares, that equates to a valuation of approximately $0.40 per share per processor.
Each processor consumes 7300 tons of plastic feedstack per year.
There is a worldwide capacity for 20,000 processors, based on 150 million tons.
There is a worldwide capacity of $32 BILLION in Net Income After Taxes for JBI processors.
Assuming a PE ratio of only 15X...that is a Market Capitalization potential of 480 Billion Dollars!
All of this EXCLUDES the plastic feedstock that is currently resident in dump sites thoughout the world which is estimated to be 6-7 times the annual generation of new plastic feedstock!
That would be, using the aforementioned assumptions, a Net Income After Taxes of $200 Billion dollars.
This is what LONG TERM investors are focusing on with respect to an investment in JBI. This will start to get realized as JBI installs and successfully implements its roll out strategy.
Predicated on a currently outstanding number of shares of approximately 60 million, the $480 billion market capitalization, excluding the dump sites, would equate to approximately $8000 per share. Given the extraordinary Return of Capital invested, that is $1.6 million in Net Income After Taxes on a capital investment of approximately $600k per processor, the resultant likely future equity dilution is di minimus, from requisite future equity issuances. Debt financing and internal cash flow should be ample to satisfy the investments in future processor manufacturing. Resultantly, each one percent in market share is worth $80 per share.....furthermore, in accordance with the metrics above, each 100 processors equates to a price per share of $40 per share. You can modify the assumptions somewhat, but the math is as simple as the aforementioned analysis, and the results won't vary materially. Short term issues such as the Wells Notice, lawsuits, delaying a 10-Q filing, and replacing a board member will be resolved and pale in comparison to the stature of the aforementioned prospects.
JBI Inc. (JBII) Stock Trading Info:
Why not? China regularly employs technologies developed in the United States for applicability to its industries. Joint Ventures are typically structured with equity sharing arrangements with local companies, private equity funds, or local governments. Plastic waste disposal is a worldwide issue. Europe, South America, Asia, North America are all prospective target markets. The only questions relate to the best strategies to employ to penetrate each of these markets. Contemplation of licensing, JVs, RT types of structures are all plausible.
US Adjustments To Valuation
Simple to adjust for US only, which is approximately one-third of the world with respect to this analysis. Approximately 6667 processors in Market size for new production of plastic feedstock per year, and $160 billion in market cap potential. I am not sure why you do not deem the markets outside the US and Canada as being relevant? Regarding price per barrel, this number is volatile and I adjusted downward for recent price declines in the price of fuel. Yes, there are approx 66 million shares outstanding. However, that does not materially effect the conclusions of the analysis.
PRICE PER SHARE ANALYSIS
The quantitative analysis is quite simple and straightforward for JBI's modular processor rollout. For those of us who are long term investors, posit the following:
There is approximately 150 million tons of newly generated plastic feedstock per year-worldwide-50 million tons in the US.
JBI's processor produces 109 barrels of fuel per day from 20 tons of plastic feedstock.
The value per barrel is approximately $100.
The marginal cost per barrel is approximately $10.
Assume that JBI gives a $20 per barrel discount to the buyer of such product.
So JBI has an EBITDA of approximately $70 per barrel.
So JBI has a Net Income After Taxes of approximately $40 per barrel.
Each processor produces approximately 40,000 barrels of fuel per year.
Each processor produces $1.6 million in Net Income after taxes per year.
Each processor, assuming a P/E market multiple of 15x has a market valuation of approximately $24 million.
Assuming 60 million shares, that equates to a valuation of approximately $0.40 per share per processor.
Each processor consumes 7300 tons of plastic feedstack per year.
There is a worldwide capacity for 20,000 processors, based on 150 million tons.
There is a worldwide capacity of $32 BILLION in Net Income After Taxes for JBI processors.
Assuming a PE ratio of only 15X...that is a Market Capitalization potential of 480 Billion Dollars!
All of this EXCLUDES the plastic feedstock that is currently resident in dump sites thoughout the world which is estimated to be 6-7 times the annual generation of new plastic feedstock!
That would be, using the aforementioned assumptions, a Net Income After Taxes of $200 Billion dollars.
This is what LONG TERM investors are focusing on with respect to an investment in JBI. This will start to get realized as JBI installs and successfully implements its roll out strategy.
Predicated on a currently outstanding number of shares of approximately 60 million, the $480 billion market capitalization, excluding the dump sites, would equate to approximately $8000 per share. Given the extraordinary Return of Capital invested, that is $1.6 million in Net Income After Taxes on a capital investment of approximately $600k per processor, the resultant likely future equity dilution is di minimus, from requisite future equity issuances. Debt financing and internal cash flow should be ample to satisfy the investments in future processor manufacturing. Resultantly, each one percent in market share is worth $80 per share.....furthermore, in accordance with the metrics above, each 100 processors equates to a price per share of $40 per share. You can modify the assumptions somewhat, but the math is as simple as the aforementioned analysis.
$50 PER SHARE PER HUNDRED MACHINES...
CONSISTENTLY BEWILDERED BY THE LACK OF OBJECTIVE FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS ON THIS BOARD...LET ME PROFFER THIS FOR YOU TO PONDER:
EACH MACHINE HAS THE FOLLOWING MARKET CAP VALUE:
109 BARRELS PER DAY AT 100 DOLLARS PER BARREL IS APPROXIMATELY $4.0 MILLION IN REVENUE PER YEAR...REDUCE BY 20% FOR THE RT FUEL PURCHASE DISCOUNT AND BY TEN DOLLARS PER BARREL FOR PROCESSING MARGINAL COSTS WHICH THEN EQUATES TO $2.8 MILLION IN EBITDA, OR $1.7 MILLION IN NET INCOME AFTER TAXES PER MACHINE...APPLY AN AVERAGE P/E MARKET MULTIPLE OF 20, AND THAT EQUATES TO A MARKET CAP VALUE PER SHARE OF APPROXIMATELY $34 MILLION...GIVEN APPROX 66 MILLION SHARES OUTSTANDING...EACH MACHINE HAS A VALUE OF APPROX $.50 PER SHARE!!...AT THE CURRENT MARKET PRICE OF APPROX $2.50, THE MARKET IS ASSUMING JBI WILL ONLY BUILD OUT FIVE MACHINES...IF YOU ASSUME A BUILDOUT OF 100 MACHINES, THAT EQUATES TO A PRICE PER SHARE OF $50 DOLLARS!!...YOU FILL IN YOUR ASSUMPTION OF THE NUMBER OF MACHINES YOU EXPECT JBI TO BUILD OUT, MULTIPLE TIMES $.50 PER MACHINE...THEN YOU HAVE YOUR ESTIMATED PRICE PER SHARE...
VALUATION ANALYSIS -STOCK PRICE
ADJUSTED
Conspicuous by its absence on this message board, is a fundamental analysis of the valuation prospects for JBI predicated on an objective basis..not a penny stock short term trading mentality. For those of us who are long term investors, posit the following:
There is approximately 150 million tons of newly generated plastic feedstock per year-worldwide-50 million tons in the US.
JBI's processor produces 109 barrels of fuel per day from 20 tons of plastic feedstock.
The value per barrel is approximately $100.
The marginal cost per barrel is approximately $10.
Assume that JBI gives a $20 per barrel discount to the buyer of such product.
So JBI has an EBITDA of approximately $70 per barrel.
So JBI has a Net Income After Taxes of approximately $40 per barrel.
Each processor produces approximately 40,000 barrels of fuel per year.
Each processor produces $1.6 million in Net Income after taxes per year.
Each processor consumes 7300 tons of plastic feedstack per year.
There is a worldwide capacity for 20,000 processors, based on 150 million tons.
There is a worldwide capacity of $32 BILLION in Net Income After Taxes for JBI processors.
Assuming a PE ratio of only 15X...that is a Market Capitalization potential of 480 Billion Dollars!
All of this EXCLUDES the plastic feedstock that is currently resident in dump sites thoughout the world which is estimated to be 6-7 times the annual generation of new plastic feedstock!
That would be, using the aforementioned assumptions, a Net Income After Taxes of $200 Billion dollars.
This is what LONG TERM investors are focusing on with respect to an investment in JBI.
Predicated on a currently outstanding number of shares of approximately 60 million, the $480 billion market capitalization, excluding the dump sites, would equate to approximately $8000 per share. Given the extraordinary Return of Capital invested, that is $1.6 million in Net Income After Taxes on a capital investment of approximately $600k per processor, the resultant likely future dilution is di minimus, from requisite future equity issuances. Debt financing and internal cash flow should be ample to satisfy the investments in future processor manufacturing. Resultantly, each one percent in market share is worth $80 per share........
Do you have an OBJECTIVE response to counter any of the delineated assumptions?
VALUATION ANALYSIS -PRICE PER SHARE
Conspicuous by its absence on this message board, is a fundamental analysis of the valuation prospects per share for JBI predicated on an objective basis..not a penny stock short term trading mentality. For those of us who are long term investors, posit the following:
There is approximately 150 million tons of newly generated plastic feedstock per year-worldwide-50 million tons in the US.
JBI's processor produces 109 barrels of fuel per day from 20 tons of plastic feedstock.
The value per barrel is approximately $100.
The marginal cost per barrel is approximately $10.
Assume that JBI gives a $20 per barrel discount to the buyer of such product.
So JBI has an EBITDA of approximately $70 per barrel.
So JBI has a Net Income After Taxes of approximately $40 per barrel.
Each processor produces approximately 40,000 barrels of fuel per year.
Each processor produces $1.6 million in Net Income after taxes per year.
Each processor consumes 7300 tons of plastic feedstack per year.
There is a worldwide capacity for 20,000 processors, based on 150 million tons.
There is a worldwide capacity of $32 BILLION in Net Income After Taxes for JBI processors.
Assuming a PE ratio of only 15X...that is a Market Capitalization potential of 480 Billion Dollars!
All of this EXCLUDES the plastic feedstock that is currently resident in dump sites thoughout the world which is estimated to be 6-7 times the annual generation of new plastic feedstock!
That would be, using the aforementioned assumptions, a Net Income After Taxes of $200 Billion dollars.
This is what LONG TERM investors are focusing on with respect to an investment in JBI.
Predicated on a currently outstanding number of shares of approximately 60 million, the $480 billion market capitalization, excluding the dump sites, would equate to approximately $8000 per share. Given the extraordinary Return of Capital invested, that is $1.6 million in Net Income After Taxes on a capital investment of approximately $600k per processor, the resultant likely future dilution is di minimus, from minimal requisite future equity issuances. Debt financing and internal cash flow should be ample to satisfy the investments in future processor manufacturing. Accordingly, each one percent in market share penetration, equates to $80 per share.
VALUATION ANALYSIS -STOCK PRICE
ADJUSTED
Conspicuous by its absence on this message board, is a fundamental analysis of the valuation prospects for JBI predicated on an objective basis..not a penny stock short term trading mentality. For those of us who are long term investors, posit the following:
There is approximately 150 million tons of newly generated plastic feedstock per year-worldwide-50 million tons in the US.
JBI's processor produces 109 barrels of fuel per day from 20 tons of plastic feedstock.
The value per barrel is approximately $100.
The marginal cost per barrel is approximately $10.
Assume that JBI gives a $20 per barrel discount to the buyer of such product.
So JBI has an EBITDA of approximately $70 per barrel.
So JBI has a Net Income After Taxes of approximately $40 per barrel.
Each processor produces approximately 40,000 barrels of fuel per year.
Each processor produces $1.6 million in Net Income after taxes per year.
Each processor consumes 7300 tons of plastic feedstack per year.
There is a worldwide capacity for 20,000 processors, based on 150 million tons.
There is a worldwide capacity of $32 BILLION in Net Income After Taxes for JBI processors.
Assuming a PE ratio of only 15X...that is a Market Capitalization potential of 480 Billion Dollars!
All of this EXCLUDES the plastic feedstock that is currently resident in dump sites thoughout the world which is estimated to be 6-7 times the annual generation of new plastic feedstock!
That would be, using the aforementioned assumptions, a Net Income After Taxes of $200 Billion dollars.
This is what LONG TERM investors are focusing on with respect to an investment in JBI.
Predicated on a currently outstanding number of shares of approximately 60 million, the $480 billion market capitalization, excluding the dump sites, would equate to approximately $8000 per share. Given the extraordinary Return of Capital invested, that is $1.6 million in Net Income After Taxes on a capital investment of approximately $600k per processor, the resultant likely future dilution is di minimus, from requisite future equity issuances. Debt financing and internal cash flow should be ample to satisfy the investments in future processor manufacturing.
Predicated on a currently outstanding number of shares of approximately 60 million, the $480 billion market capitalization, excluding the dump sites, would equate to approximately $8000 per share. Given the extraordinary Return of Capital invested, that is $1.6 million in Net Income After Taxes on a capital investment of approximately $600k per processor, the resultant likely future dilution is di minimus.
VALUATION ANALYSIS
Conspicuous by its absence on this message board, is a fundamental analysis of the valuation prospects for JBI predicated on an objective basis..not a penny stock short term trading mentality. For those of us who are long term investors, posit the following:
There is approximately 150 million tons of newly generated plastic feedstock per year-worldwide-50 million tons in the US.
JBI's processor produces 109 barrels of fuel per day from 20 tons of plastic feedstock.
The value per barrel is approximately $100.
The marginal cost per barrel is approximately $10.
Assume that JBI gives a $20 per barrel discount to the buyer of such product.
So JBI has an EBITDA of approximately $70 per barrel.
So JBI has a Net Income After Taxes of approximately $40 per barrel.
Each processor produces approximately 40,000 barrels of fuel per year.
Each processor produces $1.6 million in Net Income after taxes per year.
Each processor consumes 7300 tons of plastic feedstack per year.
There is a worldwide capacity for 20,000 processors, based on 150 million tons.
There is a worldwide capacity of $32 BILLION in Net Income After Taxes for JBI processors.
Assuming a PE ratio of only 15X...that is a Market Capitalization potential of 480 Billion Dollars!
All of this EXCLUDES the plastic feedstock that is currently resident in dump sites thoughout the world which is estimated to be 6-7 times the annual generation of new plastic feedstock!
That would be, using the aforementioned assumptions, a Net Income After Taxes of $200 Billion dollars.
This is what LONG TERM investors are focusing on with respect to an investment in JBI.