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Because there are substantially more vaccinated individuals. If you have 15-17x more vaccinated vs unvaccinated, there's going to be more case rates in the vaccinated. The vaccines were never designed to prevent case contraction but severe hospitalizations and deaths which they do amazingly well. This board should be focused on ICU attendance which is an unvaccinated issue and that population keeps shrinking every day either through death or by increased vaccination rates.
Sounds like they should have a bigger team, but I guess they couldn't find anyone that wanted to work for them. Great companies don't have a problem finding great people to join them.
The PR was released 4 days ago and nobody from the Company noticed the error to post a correction. Attention to detail is vitally important... If you cannot get a simple date in a PR right, what else isn't right?
Yeah, that's why HGEN's share price is down 81.5% in the last year, because it has a drug to "prevent" and treat COVID.
You know you've found a winner when a Management team cannot even release a PR with the correct date (i.e., Monday is January 10th not January 7th). Amateur hour at its best. I'm sure Tim is doing a bang-up job with those financials as well.
Now do Buffett and pretty much every great value investor / mutual fund manager in the world. Bottom-up is the only way to go and not sure where you picked up the above random quote --- clearly, they don't understand what it means to perform bottom-up analysis.
$52 million raised at $4 per share = 13 million new shares. That's a lot of dilution before paying for any production, trials, etc.
What are you talking about? First off, there are no revenues (None, Zero, Zilch) and there won't be any material revenues until there's regulatory approval. Second, a belief the current inventory is worth anywhere close to $100 million would be completely absurd let alone $1 billion.
There are very good reasons HGEN is trading sub $4 and down 87+% from its 52 week high. And sadly, it has nothing to do with shorts.
You clearly don't understand how dilution works. Whether you own 1,000 shares or 1,000,000 shares, if the Company dilutes its share base but is unable to increase the underlying value of the business to offset the dilution, all shareholders are negatively impacted by the same percentage. Obviously, from a dollar standpoint the largest shareholders will experience the largest dollar impact, however, percentage return is the key metric to base returns.
WHAT -- 20% of all gains? Who are these people? Fleecing the poor and retired? They have to be out of their minds to agree to a comp structure like that...
What month are you seeing a $3 premium for YORW $45 puts? Not only is there essentially no open interest and liquidity in YORW options but no YORW $45 put strikes are yielding $3 premiums.
People give you money to manage?! Wow... And you just learned about selling put options and you spend half your day posting on a message board? Double and Triple Wow...
Not sure what you're saying. I'm saying HGEN is selling shares on a regular basis (i.e., on the open market and thus, diluting shareholders). As such, the number of outstanding shares is increasing.
Per the latest 10-Q... Subsequent to Sept 30, 2021 (i.e., Oct 1 to early Nov), the Company issued and sold 3.8 million shares for $24.5 million with another $33.5 million available under the current Sales Agreement.
When was this interview? Cam guided to a 100K RUN-RATE by year-end (not 100K treatments by then) --- that was back in the summer. "On track" means they could still hit that number if they ramped production back up based on approval. Longs should be praying HGEN isn't producing to 100K treatments unless of course you believe massive dilution doesn't matter.
What are you talking about? Nobody said anything about Dale's shares not being in the outstanding share count. The share count has increased and continues to do so, as the Company continues selling shares every chance they get to very smart shareholders who think dilution doesn't matter.
You do realize Companies are based on valuation --- so, the more shares outstanding the lower the price per share for a given valuation. You're expecting HGEN to shoot back to prior prices, when you're not taking into consideration dilution which means, a lower share price for the same valuation.
Let's try one more example and we'll use round numbers. Let's say we think HGEN is worth $1 billion so we'll use that. Let's say there's 50 million shares outstanding, a $1 billion valuation means a $20 share price. Now let's say Management sells a bunch of shares call it 20 million shares. There has been no change in the business other than the share sale and thus the intrinsic value stays at $1 billion.
Target price prior to dilution - $20 Target price after dilution - $14.29
Thus, HGEN will not shoot back up to same prior levels because there are more shares outstanding, unless HGEN is able to increase the intrinsic value to warrant the same $20 share price --- i.e., HGEN would need to increase intrinsic value $400 million to get back to the $20 share price (i.e. $20 share price x 70 million shares = $1.4 billion vs. $20 x 50 million shares = $1.0 billion).
It does a lot more than that. Your current ownership in the entire business declines as do your potential returns.
For example: Total 100 shares outstanding You own 10 shares (10% ownership) Company valued at $10 per share or total value of $1,000 (100 shares x $10)
Company issues 20 shares at $8.33 per share --- total count now 120 shares outstanding You own 10 shares (8.33% ownership) Company valued at $8.33 per share, or the same total value of $1,000 (120 shares x $8.33)
Company receives a buyout offer for $1,000 immediately after the share dilution. You receive $83.33 in the buyout offer (10 shares x $8.33) versus $100 prior to the dilution (10 shares x $10), or $16.67 less as a result.
"Management is always on point and a step ahead of everyone else..." Sound like you're part of HGEN Management and you came to this board to drive up the share price. The SEC really would not like that. Should we call you Cam?
What are you talking about? I've done neither. BTW, when are you going to post something of any real substance?
I'm not actively rooting for any Company to fail. That's a waste of time. One thing about failure is its easily recognized. Some people / Management teams are highly successful, others are dumb lucky, others are just dumb... I follow both smart money and dumb money. I invest with smart money and bet against dumb. It's that simple. HGEN is an obvious case of following dumb money.
BTW, considering this an investment board related to HGEN... I'm very confident I've done more to increase (or at a minimum not decrease) the net worth of those who have listened to me on this board. Feel free to make your own predictions and bets, but I've made some very nice profits in HGEN this year unlike the vast majority of the longs on this board.
Yeah... Try again. Call the Company and ask how many treatments they have on hand? The fact is it's not many (or said another way, a LOT less than you think), as HGEN had to spend $100+ million just to secure manufacturing and subsequently shut-it down where they could.
From share offerings... $92.5 million from the April 2021 offering, $40 million from selling 2.4 million shares in Q1-Q3 2021, $24.5 million from selling 3.8 million shares in October and early November, $25.0 million from the Hercules Loan, etc., etc. Management loves diluting shareholders every chance they get... Like they did this week, last week, the week before, etc. You should also ask Management what they are forecasting the year-end outstanding share count to be.
Thanks for stating the obvious. Maybe we should all focus on getting everyone vaccinated.
That is not the FDA's fault. It's the moronic individual who didn't take the vaccine. The health system shouldn't be here to try and save lives of morons who decide not to take a safe, cheap and highly effective vaccine. Insurer companies should tell their policyholders, either get vaccinated or we're not paying your COVID hospital bills. End of story.