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Zinc - great article..
..as usual by Andy Holmes. Market suggesting only $1.60, maybe peak at $1.70 by June by the concentration of call options here. Prices would need to go above that of course for these option holders to make money. Click on his links for the graphs.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-metals-zinc-home/lme-options-landscape-suggests-one-last-bull-hurrah-for-zinc-andy-home-idUSKCN1HB2B9
Zinc thoughts from others?
As I've said many times, this is best page for Zinc charts. Feels like we're on the verge of one last run up and the correction since Feb hasn't taken out the trendline from the Feb-16 low in the low $.60s/lb. Look at the five year chart. Correction since February looks natural and we could still go up.
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/zinc_historical_large.html
Market eating through that large one time delivery to the New Orleans warehouse and as long as we don't break $1.40 on the one year chart, this is a strong level of support we could bounce off for say, one last run up to a speculative top near $2.00 which was around the 2006 high.
Had a bunch of ASND.TO but have sold it now as I await direction. Still holding all my USA.TO which should benefit greatly if zinc runs up, but should do well regardless over the next two years.
whenever the top is, this is a commodity and prices are likely gonna drop fast like in 2006.
http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/zinc/all/
I think I should buy back my ASND.TO as the smallest most leveraged zinc producer this has the most exposure for the final innings of the bull.
It does look like a good time to buy. No harm waiting for a few more weeks to see if she hits low $3.00s. $3.30 to $3.40 area is technically start of the parabolic move which is where SP was sitting before the big jump on Sep 21st which was the day they announced the Mediclear FDA clearance. If its come down this far, it makes sense to come down to there for a real bottom.
Not sure why this always happens but history does tend to repeat and retail investors to seem to panic. This will never change.
Those are all TSXV price references.
REG.V more results Lone Clone thoughts?
Per map 4, 5 + 6 collared from Coimolache land and first 200, 200 and 100m not reportable by Regulus as a result. How good are your contacts at company LC?
https://www.regulusresources.com/wp-content/uploads/20180413_StatusMap.pdf
Highlight is 9: 258m @ 0.68g/t Cu-eq from 8 metres. Yes 8 metres.
https://www.regulusresources.com/wp-content/uploads/20180413_NR.pdf
TNP.TO/TAT
Buried at work. Didn't get a chance to dial in but understand CEO was pretty reserved in what he could say (SEC restrictions) from IV board.
This is great side show to the main party. If STO ends up buying their Thrace lands in a transaction then VLE should skyrocket on buyout potential.
IMO.
MND.TO - Q1-2019 restart...
...well....these things always take longer than planned. Restart guided for Q1-2019 in latest presentation.
https://www.mandalayresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/MND_Investor_Presentation_March_2018_Final.pdf
Mandalay just keeps ticking down. Costerfield and Bkjordal humming but now emerging as higher AISC in 2018.
Anything below 0.23 is < CAD 100mm market cap.
VLE.TO
- nothing definitive yet. FYI - this Turkey board is basically the VLE board. Some good older posts on value and resource from good posters over there (Acadien, Public_Heel) but now a lot of "share price" chatter
https://www.investorvillage.com/Groups.asp?mb=19518&pt=m
TNP.TO/TAT is partner on part of VLE's land and has some land that should be in the "sweet spot" on the edge of the BCGA. They have some good slides on development and alluding to drilling in Q2 I believe on their land. Anything that Transatlantic or Valeura discover should be good for each other. Rise in tandem if either of them drill a production well with IP over 10 MMCFD when they go deep.
Presentation linked here:
http://www.transatlanticpetroleum.com/
I am the opposite.
Never stopped following but thought it was wise to sell most at $4.50 so missed the run up.
Agree the future looks bright to time to buy back the position near to same price.
C'est la vie.
TKO.TO / TGB - Taseko due diligence phase
Copper miners busted out north in early 2017. I missed that ride but made a tracking list of all the junior miners. I just looked now and Taseko looks like it is the cheapest junior producer (relative to copper) and sold off 50% from $2.40 to $1.20 (TGB in US) in a matter of months. It is $1.37 now.
Taseko has a 20 year+ life .30% copper open pit in BC which is Canada's second largest copper mine. They have worked out the bugs, this mine will be churning out cash going forward.
I scanned for reasons why Taseko sold off, and it could be tired investors exiting because a big growth project is cancelled. That project was a decade + away anyways.
http://www.mining.com/web/canadian-federal-government-rejects-tasekos-proposed-1-5bln-copper-gold-mine-project/
This SA article overlays my initial thinking somewhat. The author makes the rookie mistake that I say so many mining anlysts do I want to bang my head of comparing NPV to Market Cap instead of Enterprise Value. How do the debt holders get repaid?
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4153745-taseko-mines-dirt-cheap
This one is better and shows Taseko is likely trading between 5X and 6X 2018 EV/EBITDA - pretty fairly valued.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4153861-taseko-mines-solid-margins-current-copper-prices
Feels like copper is due for a selloff so I'm going to stay on the sidelines and watch but posted this for consideration later in 2018.
Taseko vs. the copper price
Taseko Chart
Saw a quote somewhere that "smelters play funny games in March as this is typically the time in the year when treatment charges are negotiated"
Apparently the LME is not a reliable source now for concentrates anyways since inventories are so low. Smelters have to go straight to producers.
Had a friend send me a useful UBS zinc market update report this week. If you want a copy email me at my ihub name + @hotmail(dot)com
That's my old, spam-heavy email but what I'll do is check on the weekend and then send out from my actual personal email that I keep very close!
VLE.TO
Combined with TNP.TO/TAT this has grown into my largest position ever.
The Turkey board on IV is now basically the Valeura board.
https://www.investorvillage.com/Groups.asp?mb=19518&pt=m
ASND.TO - high cost but high zinc?
I'm wondering if ASND.TO as "high cost" is a bit misleading as they have a high zinc content (70%) so their margins are actually quite high due to the higher revenue side.
Regardless - this is a nice operational turn around story, producing into what should be the peak of the zinc cycle and moving higher now after a long base caused by the fact the stock went way to high speculatively about a year ago.
I like my ASND.TO hold here.
ASND.TO/ASDRF
It is a high cost producer but starting from a low base as MC still under $C100mm and 60-70% upside here to trade on par with Trevali on a cash flow multiple basis as outlined here:
http://s21.q4cdn.com/765868678/files/doc_presentations/2018/Feb/Ascendant-Corporate-Presentation-February-2018.pdf
Ascendant's 2018 costs per tonne are here: $70-80/tonne
http://www.ascendantresources.com/English/Investors/press-releases/press-release-details/2018/Ascendant-Resources-Announces-Positive-Free-Cash-Flow-for-Q4-2017-and-Provides-2018-Guidance/default.aspx
Contrast this against Trevali's three Zn-Pb-Ag mines and it is higher cost than all of them. If you ignore Perkoa which appears to be a pure-play zinc mine, then costs for Trevali are in the $40-60 range/tonne.
https://www.trevali.com/news/2018/trevali-reports-record-preliminary-q4-2017-and-2017-annual-production-and-provides-2018-production-and-cost-guidance/
VLE.TO - OT for mining board but....
...worth a read of Malcolm's blog. This is my biggest position ever with north of $CAD 100k marked-to-market now between VLE.TO and TAT/TNP.TO.
There may never be another natural gas discovery of this size on the doorstep of Europe. Insanely strategic.
Unrisked net recoverable gas to Valeura of 10 TCF and that is only the first resource report.
Malcolm's opinion is that if you use the P90 risked net recoverable gas to Valuera of 3.2 TCF (which is still massive!), the fair value of this is US $1.6 billion or $CAD 25/share. A buyer could pay that and get all the upside from development.
Valeura is trading just south of $CAD 7/share as we speak.
http://hydracapital.ca/hydra-blog/valeuras-thrace-basin-prize-weighs-in-at-double-digit-tcfs
Valeura VLE.TO - Resource Report
Way beyond everyone's expectations. There is a "Turkey" board over at Investors Village that is basically the VLE board.
Not a microcap anyone, but by far my biggest holding ever now. I bought some TAT/TNP.TO today which also has a significant position in the Thrace Basin.
All you need to do here is read Malcolm's blog - should go north of $20/share in a buyout siutation.
http://hydracapital.ca/hydra-blog/valeuras-thrace-basin-prize-weighs-in-at-double-digit-tcfs
REG - a few questions...
..my mind is foggy from long day at work.
On slides 28-33 (which are cross sections indicated on slide 28), has Regulus drilled Southwest down from their Sub Area 2 (the salmon colored lands) across the Coimolache lands towards Sub Area 1 where they have the nice long drill hits?
If they did, did the holes come up blank?
thanks in advance!
USA.TO - will be a wild ride.
If you look back at USA's 2009 to 2011 run it was pretty wild so expect that this time around. We won't go that high again of course in terms of price or absolute magnitude (massive silver bull) but I expect history to repeat here with a wild ride so trading around core position is definitely a good idea here.
Note: I think we had a 5:1 share consol and stock charts always adjusts historical charts for new share consol. $28 is over a CAD 1Bn MC so no way we will ever see that again.
I think we'll hit the 6.80 I've drawn in a couple months here as it is a massive gap down that needs to be "filled". I'm a "grain of salt" technical guy but Humans tend to repeat behaviors so because this rule is a mantra we should go there soon.
Zinc Wood Mac...
...was calling for peak prices of $3800/metric ton in 2018 in their materials 1.5 years ago which is $1.72/lb. I think we'll go higher as fundamentals keep getting better (hardly any inventory, Glencore explicitly stating they will not flood market bringing their shut downs online all at once). I'm not sure what they are calling for now. Don't have access to their materials (was a project at work for me at the time).
2006 high was $4531/tonne or $2.03/lb. I think the speculators will have to drive up prices past that this time. We'll at least get a push up to $2.03 guaranteed.
The only way to know where the top is is to ride it all the way to the top and sell on the way back down....
I'm happy to hold ASND.V and USA.TO for the next year as they are producing mostly zinc into the peak of the market and it won't take too much capital to bid them higher with their low market caps.
I definitely like the producers but do really appreciate all Lone Clone's ideas here as an advanced explorer-specialist!
ASND.TO/ASDRF + 15% plus USA.TO tidbit
Feeling like a genius up almost 20% on ASND.TO now on +4% move in zinc today.....MC still only CAD 76mm @ 1.05 today if anyone else wants to consider.
USA.TO down 6% because they "hit low point of guidance" for 2017 but this was all related to timing of Cosala commissioning. Makes sense to buy some USA.TO today. Here is a nice tidbit from PR:
"Silver production is expected to be lower in the first 18 months of the mine's production due to mine sequencing within San Rafael. The initial development in the San Rafael orebody was into the area closest to the portal where the silver grade is approximately half of the reserve silver grade. The main and the upper zones of the orebody are estimated to have higher silver grades. Silver equivalent production is expected to increase significantly, and cash costs and all-in sustaining costs are expected to decrease due to the significant increase in lead and zinc projected to be produced from the San Rafael mine. At current spot prices, the mine is expected to generate significant free cash flow in 2018 and with further growth in 2019 as capital requirements decrease and the silver grade improves."
So they are over-producing zinc in 2018/2019 which should be the peak of the zinc cycle, and then increase silver production thereafter. Sounds like a great combination to me.
This is your splash page for zinc:
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/zinc_historical.html
Lead also looking very good here which is USA.TO's second most-produced commodity in 2018/2019:
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/lead_historical_large.html
CPTMatt Zinc...
..I've got all my zinc exposure in USA.TO and ASND.TO. Just bought ASND last week and jumped 15% today on +4% move in zinc price.
Like these two as they are producing zinc NOW into the pinch point of this zinc cycle in 2018-2019.
Also added some ASM.TO / ASM - see chart
Avino, like a few other silver producers, is due for a break of the downtrend in place since the H1-2016 Gold/Silver sector share run.
When Avino breaks to upside, it tends to go for quite a run so took a position here. It's banging up against the downtrend line today, and was yesterday as well.
Avino has now done 3.0, 2.6 and 2.7mm Ag-Eq ounces in the last 3 years and have AISC in the $10-$11 range so I'm very comfortable holding. No guidance provided for 2018 yet but presentation shows a new high over 3mm.
Avino was around in the 80's during the gold bull and the Hunt Brothers Silver market-corner attempt. It was one of the best performing stocks when Silver went parabolic into 1980. Remember seeing a list of some of the older stocks back then. Avino was on the NYSE then, and is still on the NYSE. At some point when Silver really goes for another run traders will remember this history.
Avino now on the TSX too FYI. Uplist from the venture but this doesn't change anything for Canadians. Need those Wall Street guys to bid er' up.
Here is presentation
https://www.avino.com/site/assets/files/4097/corporate_presentation_january_2018_website.pdf
Added ASND.TO to the zinc sweepstakes...
...sold a big position where thesis got pushed out and put CAD 15k into ASND.TO today at 0.91 (TSXV). Market Cap only CAD 65mm.
ASDRF is the OTC ticker but you're better buy on the venture.
Thesis is pretty straightforward, undervalued, zinc leverage, turned around the mine and growing production in 2018, chart put in a huge bottom since May and just broke out with zinc bull still in up-mode. Mining costs of $70-80/T are in line with Trevali's non-glencore mines.
Would potentially double way easier from .91 and CAD 65mm market cap than Trevali, Americas Silver or Excellon who are other logical zinc miners investors will plow money into if zinc goes higher in 2018.
Company lays out metrics pretty clearly on homepage with link to Corp Pres. where they show their valuation compared to similar zinc producers and base metal producers.
http://www.ascendantresources.com/English/Home/default.aspx
Didn't go....
...for first time in several years. Was a powder weekend up on the local ski hills. Keeping eyes peeled for updates.
Katusa sponsored and I'm a subscriber so will likely hear of his best ideas this week.
MND.TO - looks like bottom is in.
Has not broken downtrend with current gold sector rally. Announced Q4 production today which with two mines, was higher than with three mines in Q4-2016. Think this will put a floor on the price.
Any news on Cerro Bayo open will explode Mandalay 30% higher in a day IMO. We may not need this for Mandalay to be higher later this week.
https://www.mandalayresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/MND_Jan_15_2018.pdf
USA.TO - I won'd be adding more.
Already have a lot. Definitively a zinc play for 2018 and zinc bull still in full force. Going to hold.
Here is a good recent feature. Galena is something to monitor as the last operations PR did point to some issues there. 2018 looks not to be as strong as 2017 due to head grades.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4135269-americas-silver-derisked-well-positioned-current-rally-zinc-prices
Here is a link I found on Galena Union Negotiations.
https://www.platts.com/latest-news/metals/louisville-kentucky/usw-rejects-contract-offer-at-americas-silvers-10129841
Also - I never use SH anymore but just looked and best poster on USA.TO is petersburggray. Seems to be a local Idaho guy with mining background with some key observations you can't find elsewhere. Check this post:
http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.usa/scorpio-mining-corp?postid=26846072
OT: Way to play VLE.V is TAT/TNP.TO
I've bought a bit of Transatlantic who sold Valeura their interest in the Thrace basin and still holds 100% of a huge chunk of Thrace Basin prospective land in the northwest of the basin.
I put my order in for TAT (NYSE - AMEX) but somehow my Canadian Broker (I'm a Canuck) bought me TNP.TO on the TSX - Canadian listing. Much more volume with TAT.
See slide 31. It is the sideways "n' shaped land labelled Temrez/F18-B4.
http://www.transatlanticpetroleum.com/media/16734/2017-03-22-IPAA-OGIS-NEW-YORK.pdf
VLE.V
Was buried in December but I went big into VLE.V around $2.00 and it has exploded into my largest holding. This is a massive Natural Gas discovery in Turkey. OT post on another board below and all the information you need is on Hydra Capital's blog. Valeura was a microcap in December but really does have the potential to be bought out for a billion dollars. Time will tell.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=137426803
OT: VLE
Was swamped at work at the time and couldn't post anything. Generally would have posted at least something over on the VM Junior Energy board. There really wasn't a lot of time to think on this one.
I subscribe to CL001 and he was pounding the table on it and he was in close contact with Malcolm Shaw @ Hydra Capital.
Here is where Malcolm puts forward the case for a one billion dollar buyout. He is talking USD here so that is CAD 1.25B vs. current CAD 284M MC @ 3.90 so that is still 440% upside, though Valeura will have to raise equity at come point. That is why I haven't sold a single share.
http://hydracapital.ca/hydra-blog/valeura-energys-thrace-basin-discovery-putting-all-the-pieces-together
I managed to get some more this morning at 3.59 as I feel like any sell off won't last very long. Everyone who has bought has read Malcolm's analysis and understands the prize here - a sh*t ton of natural gas at doorstep of Europe in Turkey that imports 99% of natural gas with gas priced at USD 7/MCF.
FYI - the Turkey Board over at IV has transformed into the Valeura board. Go back about 3 weeks and just read the most highly recommended posts (score of 5+ generally). Definitely read the one by amstocks82 explaining the 5.5 inch production casing. It is an awesome board.
https://www.investorvillage.com/Groups.asp?mb=19518&pt=m
OT: VLE...
I was going to load boat at $1.40 after it jumped what....50% every day for three days in row..."I'll wait for a pullback"...didn't come so bought most of mine around $2.00 the next day but that's only a CAD 150mm market cap and ultimate prize as you're no doubt aware could be huge.
My Miner positions
So far we have a nice gold rally like predicted in my last post. I think it might be like January 2016. So does Checkmate. This means PM stocks are place to be for 2018.
I have 3 high conviction positions for 2018 that are about 70% of my family's portfolio right now which are USA.TO, a lucrative Turkish Natural Gas discovery VLE.V and Teekay Shipping TK - NYSE. VLE.V was very opportunistic and may get taken out in 2018.
I've got a lot of miners to round off the 30% I've purchase in the last month. I plan to move some funds into more miners over the next month. Here is what I am holding.
Eldorado ELD.TO/EGO
Here is a great summary of why I am holding
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4125238-eldorado-gold-epic-opportunity
EQX.TO Equinox - old Trek Mining. This is Ross Beatty mid-tier play. Down on historic position from when I bought Trek Mining, but only 20% down.
http://www.equinoxgold.com/
MND.TO - same thesis. Should double on ANY news. Still in the dumps from the Chile Mine opening collapse (only flooded 2% of reserves).
MUX.TO - bought because of the chart. Tons of upside.
EDR.TO - bought because of chart. Silver rally hold.
NVO.V - I bought recently after the huge selloff.
SSRM.TO (renamed Silver Standard). Recently sold off 40%. Not convinced this one is best option so might switch for another.
REG.V - covered here in detail.
Want to add BTO.TO (commissioning Fekola and will do 400k ounces from here in 2018) at least in next month. Also GCM.TO could be at start of big turn around, NGD.TO for both gold and copper upside and Liberty Gold LGD.TO for an advanced developer.
USA.TO Nice start to new year EOM
BRO.V Bro...
...another zinc exploration story to watch. Has what they think is the feeder zone for Arizona Mining's Hermosa deposite the geologist who is the chief geologist for MAG Silver (nothing to snuff at) says that there is never just one Hermosa with this type of Porphory.
https://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/noted-geologist-peter-megaw-believes-this-project-hosts-the-source-of-arizona-minings-taylor-deposit
Also a blurb about BRO.V here:
https://www.theaureport.com/article/2017/12/21/5-undervalued-miners-for-this-tax-loss-selling-season.html
USA.TO/USAS - back to 4.75 area pretty quick.
That is a good sign. I'm still as long as I ever was. Didn't buy more in low 4's as have a lot of exposure here already. 4.75 dates back a couple years and was a peak so if we stay above this into year end that is a good sign.
Here is the new presentation.
http://www.americassilvercorp.com/i/pdf/presentations/presentation20171207.pdf
Slide 5 demonstrates what a zinc and lead story Americas is. Both metals are in bull markets. Here is lead you probably don't look at every day.
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/lead_historical.html
**Must Watch** rally out of December gold lows historic
GAAN Global now has reputation of calling 2011 gold market top and January 2016 start of the huge 6 month rally in gold stocks out of secular market low.
James' thesis is playing out with current trough in gold in December and he is calling for a 100%+ move in gold stocks out of these December lows based on hundreds of years of market data on similar commodity markets.
This is not to be missed and message is clear: load the boat on PM stocks over the next two weeks of tax loss selling. Sorry for not posting earlier. This is a must watch. James is a market historian. Bob Moriarty over at 321gold credits James as being bang on with the major gold market moves.
Hour video laying out thesis but you can scan and watch for 20 the core message.
http://www.gannglobal.com/webinar/2017/11/17-11-16-Video-4-Offer-Is-Open-321.php?inf_contact_key=0334d1b837b82844db4faf03ac1bb9af4009d41ed4a4e9497dd04323611f5d3d
Update on original - 4 minutes
http://www.gannglobal.com/webinar/2017/12/17-12-05-Video-7-Offer-Is-Open-GGF.php?inf_contact_key=acb6f938246881e171f099e4106906243029578e17b91af4e1f2deaa92073fea
USA.TO/USAS
I think so. Here is Resource World (based in Vancouver) take on Glencore investor day and zinc
http://resourceworld.com/index.php/glencore-removes-production-overhang-fears-zinc-market/
Here was also an intra-day bottom today close to $4.00 which was mid-August start of the 50% rally.
I'll do another post on what GAAN Global is thinking will happen out of December PM lows we are seeing.
USA.TO
No. I sold like half near 5.80 on the second trip up I think and then used all those funds again at 5.10. I don't need to any more so just holding.
Here is a quick and dirty picture of year 1 from San Rafael applying current spot prices (well Zinc @ 1.50, not 1.40) for a picture of what 2018 will look like from San Rafael alone. Reference is page 154 and 155 of pre-feas. All amounts in $USD.
http://www.americassilvercorp.com/i/pdf/reports/SanRafaelReport.pdf
900k oz Silver @ 17 = $15.3mm
32.7mm lbs zinc @ 1.50 = $49.5mm
15.3mm lbs pb @ 1.20 = $18.4
Total Revenue $83.2mm
Smelter Treatment ($14.1)
Smelter Return $69.1mm
Year 1 Op costs ($22,0mm)
Year 1 Operating CF $47.1mm
Year 1 devel. capex ($19.3mm)
Free Cash Flow $27.8mm
AISC from San Rafael (22.0 + 19.3 + 14.1 - 18.4 - 49.5) = ($12.5mm)/900k ounces = negative ($14)/ounce applying zinc and lead as by-product credits.
Until I did that I didn't realize how much development capex there in in year 1 in the mine plan. There is probably a big portal extension here.
San Rafael is not a silver project but these are the types of metrics USA will be compared against.
That is an awesome operating CF number if they can deliver with $22mm of operational costs at San Rafael. Project looks great if zinc prices stay up here.
Keep watching EXN.TO as Americas and Excellon are moving in lockstep.
QTRH.TO/QTRH old Wi-Lan - blowout Q Thursday
Bought some Quarterhill this morning which is the renamed WiLan - basically a patent licencer. This was a Canadian mid-cap darling a few years ago.
WiLan generates strong cash, but it is inconsistent, they had USD 150mm of cash on balance sheet this year and bought two other little Canadian based companies (Hamilton, Saskatoon) but with global footprints in the IIOT market. They had USD 44M in cash after these acquisitions at June 30 and and equal amount of working capital which is important for looking at EV. They are debt free.
QTRH is about to provide details of a blow-out quarter on thursday booking say USD 75mm in revenue and 50mm in EBITDA vs. a Market Cap of USD 230mm and EV of 185mm at the high end (they could have more cash and EV goes down).
High Q3 revenue will likely be reported as a one-time event from Wi-Lan. So you can't look at Q3 as sustainable.
http://www.quarterhill.com/news/press-release-details/2017/Quarterhill-Provides-Third-Quarter-Financial-Update/default.aspx
This is Benj Gallander, Canada's most successful value microcap investor with his President's Porfolio returning an unheard of and verified 20% over the last 20 years. Benj has been around the block and I listen to him more and more.
http://www.bnn.ca/market-call/benj-gallander-s-top-picks~1249910
If I was following QTRH back when the Q3 was pre-announced in early October (bottom of recent run below) it was a screaming buy. Starting out with a trade into thursday's announcement. QTRH has already broken above a downtrend line going back a couple years. We'll see what the details are on thursday.