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PRICES AND VALUES
the problem is one of perception
The price is available but the price is what someone is willing to pay....not necessarily what something will be worth next month or next year.
But the long term question is that the price is a compound of the investors perception of the future company and the cold cash reality of the real trading world which goes from bull to bear and maybe back to bull.
The value of the company next year bears little relation to the price at this instant.
BIX
watch what you post because the postings are read by customers, vendors, financiers, bankers and some of the negative comments you make could cause potential transactions to be aborted or hurt
Remember that EVERYONE can read the posts , not just us
stockholders
SHOCKING
Bix admits contacting china manufacturers posing as an Ameican Venture capitalist
Posing as someone he is not
Interfering in business relationships that took a long time to put together
These are things that are extremely abnormal for a stockholder...........
so there must be another real reason for the vendetta
against CBQI
I agree that Bart is an authority on international
trade
My point was that Asian vendors tend to be more
cooperative and flexible in working with an American customer
and so I would expect the Asian vendor to work harder to help develop what could become a large American customer............
especially when the American customer is someone they know
personally and trust.
FINANCING CHINA COMPUTERS
once upon a time I was involved in buying products manufactured in China, Hong Kong and Japan.
My experience was that if the factory say an opportunity for volume, that they would provide an appropriate mechanism to do business and not be stymied by customer financial strength.
Of course each case is different but my limited experience was that Asian factories that want incremental sales will find ways to make it happen...and probably will be more financially innovative than American factories.
why no posts since 7.28???????
is my screen in error?
AMEX CONSULTANT
I find this news very interesting.
I am sure this is not a casual announcement which follows finding a name in the phone book.
I assume the parties have had discussions about various courses of action and that they must feel there is a reasonable chance of accomplishment or they would not have announced the relationship.
I find it hard to think that Bart would announce something like this unless he felt there was a reasonable possibility of good follow up news.
NOW YOU SAID IT
"the buying opportunities get better after the selling begins"
And you are doing all possible to create the selling
to force down price so you or your backers can
profit by the holders you scared with your nonsense and
fabrications
If you were a holder of CBQI you would never engage in the misinformation you spread. If you were a holder why would you try to force down the price?
BIX IS WRONG
NOT TRUE
FALSE
ERROR
This shows how mistaken Bix is in his postings
I, Sidney Lieberman, post as Invest7168
I never owned or visited or sold Reliance or Topher to CBQ or to anyone else in the world
I owned Priority which never had anything to do with Reliance or Topher. I sold Priority to CBQ and that
shows in all SEC filings and many posts.
Bix should choose better language. I did not ""walk away"" with anything.
Another example of Bix's misstatements.
THANKS FOR POSTING ON INDIA OUTSOURCING
Your quotes show that there is a multi billion $$$$
market for American firms sending software and
IT services to India.
If only a very small part of that could be shifted
to CBQ sources in China and India that could be a multi million dollar market for CBQ.
Below are direct quotes from the the
Satam Computer prospectus
""Export revenue generated from Indian software and
services companies will grow from approximately
$4.0 billion in fiscal 2000 to $14.0 billion by
fiscal 2003"" (page 1)
COMMENT>>>
PROJECTING $14 BILLION REVENUE...........
1.0% COULD BE $140,000,000
.5% COULD BE $70,000,000
.1% COULD BE $14,000,000
""as of Decenmber 31, 2000 we had 9,251 employees whom we refer to as associates , worldwide as compared to 5,292 associates as of December 31, 1999"" (page 7)
COMMENT>>>>>>>
COULD THEY BE
REFERRING TO CHINA?
""we expect that future competition will increasingly
include firms with operations in other countries,
potentially including countries with lower personnel
costs than those prevailing in India*************
wage costs in this industry in India are presently
increasing at a faster rate than those in the United States********"" (page 10)
COMMENT>>>>
INTERESTING EXAMPLE OF
SALARIES IN INDIA
Satam revenue 9 months
ended DEC 31, 2000 $210,860,000 (page F-4)
annual compensation of
chief exective officer 40,145 (page 85)
MARKET RESEARCH ON INDIA
interesting info in prospectus of
SAYTAM COMPUTER SERVICES
available thru Merril Lynch or Bank of
America
size of market, volume trends, major
customers, number of employees, etc
Very timely and positive report from management
Particularly statement that company now operates at postive cash flow
Positive cash flow means burn rate is ZERO.
How many young companies can say that?
BIX
I can not understand
1. if the company is as bad as you say
2. and if the future is as dim as you project
3. and the figures are as bad as you "analyze"
then logic says you should sell now and cut your loss
and put your money somewhere else where you can get
rich quick
Or is it that your real motive is not
protecting your investment but rather to
scare people into selling or not buying
and force the price down for some other purpose?
You forget that it takes 90 days of hard work to
produce the results and figures for a quarter, and
180 days of hard work to produce the results and figures for a half year.
If one believes in the business plan and the competency
of the people executing it then one must allow time for
the actions to take place.
When things are changing as fast as they are your
analysis of past events is irrelevant to understanding the present and evaluating the future.
The business model of 2001 and 2002 bears no relation to
the changed business model of 1998 and 1999.
I do not have 1716, 1717, 1718
on my screen either
SEE PARAGRAPH 1.03 OF AGREEMENT
"ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATION FOR ISSUANCE OF CBQ SHARES"
Agreement is dated May 11, 1999
specific partial text in quotes below,
see agreement for complete text
""As additional consideration for CBQ entering into this agreement Rick Williamson agrees.........""
1. ""to sit on the Board of Directors of CBQ
and to be appointed as president.....""
2. ""to form a management team.............""
3. ""shall fund (through loans or equity investments)
the ongoing operations of CBQ""
In my opinon, #3 above is the key to the deal with Global. CBQ received not just 19% of Global ....
.......but the contract provided the above committment for funding ongoing operations of CBQ which at that time
had little income or cash flow.
======================================
9 days later on May 20, 1999 letter from Williamson addressed to Board of Directors
below is direct quote from longer letter
""For the next six months I will maintain the overhead cost to support the basic management infrastructure, office rents, etc. which shall be accounted for and submitted at the appropriate time as a loan to the corporation consistent with the terms of other shareholders who have lent money to the company.These monthly costs (approximately 45K or $270,000 for 6 months) are itemized for your inspection.""
DA........YOU MENTION MY NAME SO
SIDNEY LIEBERMAN SETS RECORD STRAIGHT
I sold Priority One to CBQ on April 30, 1999
Part of the deal was that I would be a director of CBQ
I never attended a face to face meeting of the Board.
If there were such meetings I have no minutes thereof.
I never visited the CBQ offices in Texas
I never met Bill Williamson or visited Global or had any dealings with either Williamson or Global
My only knowledge of Global comes from press releases.
I never met the other director Mike Sheriff or had any dealings with him.
There were several phone meetings of the Board.
I have a severe hearing loss and found it difficult to
hear the phone meetings and therefore resigned
from the board on June 18, 1999
The CBQ press release of June 22, 1999 reports on that resignation.
ABOUT INGRAM MICRO
symbol im
employees 16,000
saldes 30 Billion
net 223 Million
===============================
ECONOMICS 101
Credit is extended when a creditor
is confident he will be repaid
DIRECT QUOTE FROM PRESS RELEASE
"""We now expect CBQ to generate sufficient
cash flow to support such a buyback program
while funding the growth of the business"""
Read it again
not hope to generate
not wish to generate
not plan to generate
not think we might generate
not wish we could generate
BUT
"""EXPECT TO GENERATE"""
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
when???????
"""NOW BEGIN TO GENERATE"""
CYBERCHINA CONFERENCE
quotes from news release
==============================
CHINA.............INDIA...........
"we are anxious to spread the word
about the potential of China as a
workshop for American industry"
"EasySoft.......Beijing, China and Miami, Fl"
"Technet.........India and Tysons Corner,
Virginia"
"the company has state of the art
offshore software development facilities
located in China"
SPEAKER>>>>>>"Minister counselor for science
and technlology, Embassy of the Peoples
Republic of China"
A laymans approach to credability
A GENERALIZATION
Not being a corporate executive I try to imagine what it is to try to tell the truth about what is happening and the legal constraints governing what and when and how it can be said.
Leaving aside the legal constraints which I am not familiar with, from the practical standpoint it seems to me that companies report three things
1. what took place....past tense
2. what is currently taking place.....present tense
3. what is planned to take place....future tense
ITEM 1....PAST
Credability is preserved if one is 100% correct in precisely describing what happened (past tense)
ITEM 2.....PRESENT
Credability is preserved is one is honest in describing what is happening allowing for the fact that not everything that is happening comes to the desired conclusion.......so
unforseen results do not destroy credability
ITEM 3.....FUTURE
However, when announcements relate to planned actions the standard of credability should be "was the statement correct when made" and credability is not destroyed if the eventual result is not as planned if it was correctly described at the beginning........and if management then explains the delays or deviations in performance.
JUST MY LAYMANS OPINION
UNFORTUNATELY...
THIS IS TURNING INTO THE BIX BOARD
Most of us holders would like to see the company grow and
succeed and the stock go way up
Therefore we tend to support the company and to try to
understand the facts and give the company the doubt where things are pending and in process
BUT BIX IS DIFFERENT
He always sees the worst......always wants to prove the company wrong........wants to see the stock hit zero......
and his posts raise doubts and uncertainty in minds of holders and possible investors which helps to drive down the stock.
BUT THE GOOD THING IS
events will prove Bix to be wrong.
IN MY OPINION WHAT REALLY MATTERS
1. Is company progressing on its business plan?
2. Will company be in black for current periods?
3. MOST IMPORTANT>>>>>>Will sales growth and cost
containment produce substantial net incomes
in 2002 and beyond?
AND WHAT DOES NOT MATTER
are all the irrelevant issues he raises
again and again and again and again.
Bart's press release refers to two pending unidentified acquisitions AND possible listing on Nasdaq or Amex.
I am GUESSING that both above might perhaps possibly
be one and the same and that the acquisition might
bring with it an Amex listing.
Just GUESSWORK on my part.
BUT .... if you search Amex you find
128 companies under $1.00
96 companies under $.75
62 companies under $.51
25 companies under $.27
so maybe perhaps there might be a good company
with a bad stock price to acquire
AGAIN........JUST A GUESS.......dont rely
on me.....I could be far wrong
THAT WAS SOCRATES PROBLEM
Maybe because Socrates had that problem is why
CBQI was able to buy what they wanted at a good price
CHINA OUTSOURCING IN 10K
DIRECT QUOTES (PAGES 4 AND 5)
""In January 2000, CBQ merged with Chinasoft Inc, the private industry partner of the state-owned sOftware development companies. CBQ may call on Chinasoft's substantial programmer resources for contract software devellopment or outsourcing"".
********
""When the work can be performed off client sites, CBQ's
Chinasoft unit offers virtually all of the same services. The company believes that the cost effectiveness of Chinasoft's labor force will be increasing attractive to all enterprises seeking to lower the cost of software development""
*******
""CBQ intends to sub contract the large=scale custom programming requirements to its Chinasoft subsidiary"".
COMMENT AND OPINION
The China outsourcing is the wild card. I dont know how
big it could be but it is interesting to see what
one company is doing in India outsourcing
""INFY"" reports current year sales $413,000,000 and pretax
$147,000,000 from outsourcing from USA to India.
WILD GUESS.......IF...IF..... ""INFY"" company represents
one third the market then... PERHAPS.......MAYBE........
the India market COULD BE...... MIGHT BE.....$1,200,000,000.
ANOTHER EVEN WILDER GUESS..... IF... IF... CBQ could do 3% of that volume the.... POTENTIAL sales ......POTENTIAL sales .....
COULD BE......MIGHT BE....... $36,000,000!!!!!!!!!!!
Obviously the range could be from zero upwards to ????????
IN MY OPINION......the POTENTIAL here is as great as or
greater than the domestic software programming business.
But POTENTIALS are goals and not guarantees and have to be attained through effort.
PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF SALES IN 10K
I found several interesting and positive items
FROM REPORT
1999 sales booked
(page 10) 2,890,581
xxxxxxxxxxx
2000 sales booked
(page 10) 9,450,315
2000 sales of East Soft,
Technet and Networkland
not then acquired (page 21) 15,000,000 plus
============
2000 sales had above been
acquired in 2000 24,450,000 plus
MY COMMENT
Is it unreasonable to guess that with normal growth
of present companies 2001 sales could be... maybe...
perhaps... 30,000,000?????
And if the two pending acquisitions alluded to by Bart
were to take place are we then looking at an even
larger number?
And if the China outsourcing referred to on pages 4 and 5
were to take place how much could that add to sales?
IN MY OPINION.... I see prospect for substantial sales
revenue in 2001 and 2002 as the company starts to
realize its potential.
And with proper cost controls such additional revenue could
have a positive effect on net income.
I AGREE WITH YOU BIX
I too hope that June 30, 2001 balance sheet reflects the past and pending acquisitions
but the balance sheet is only one measuring criteria
Unfortunately it only shows past events which have become what I call "hard facts"
One needs to apply judgment to the balance sheet to try to understand what is likely to evolve over future periods from the stated assets and liabilities (and implied relationships) described at a particular day's balance sheet
thus producing what I call "soft visions" of the future.
Obviously if different people analyze the same balance sheet there will be a range of "soft visions" of the future
and that is where good judgment is needed.
I am glad that you and I are in agreement.
OLD HARD FACTS VS NEW SOFT VISIONS
Bix
You remind me of the story of the blind men who
described an elephant..... by one by touching the thick legs or the other by touching the thin wavy wiggling snout.
Each was telling the truth yet each described a differrent animal.
You keep quoting what the company was one or two years ago.
Even if those quotes were accurate, they do not describe the present company which has announced 8 figure annual revenues (not profits) from
Quantum
Easy Soft
Technet
Networkland
and has announced that they have started outsourcing some work to China programmers
and has announced two additional acquisitions in near future and plans to list on Amex or Nasdaq
So the difference between us is
You are telling the truth as you see it by looking at stale hard facts
and
I, in my minds eye, have a vision of how these existing and future parts might come together and might produce a great company.
The difference is you can prove the stale facts.
I can not prove the minds eye vision.
Hopefully todays soft vision will become tomorrows hard facts
and we will compare notes at that time.
BIX AND PERFORMANCE
I too care how the stock performs.........but you
have to add the time frame for when it performs.
HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE.....NOT REAL FACTS...
MAYBE ??? REAL LOGIC
Assume there are two companies each today selling at $1.
Hypothetical Company A has revenue of $10 mil and earns 1 mil.
Company is long established and safely grows about 10% year.
and rarely more than that.
Hypothetical Company B is new and just reached annualized revenue $10 mil and zero earnings but last year it had $1 mil revenue and with acquisitions and product expansion expects to have $25 mil revenue next year and maybe $50 mil after that.....with appropriate earnings.
What do you think could happen to stock prices?
With both companies at the same $1 today, in my opinion,
company B will be way way ahead of company A in a year or two.
So what counts is not how the stock "performed" yesterday.
IN THE LONGER PERIOD, in my opinion, the stock will perform
somewhat in parallel to how the company performs its business plan.
reply to bix
""EARNINGS ILLOGIC""
Yes, earnings make a difference
People buy stocks based on expectation of
future earnings, not past earnings
EXCEPT
past earnings form a starting point from which
to project and estimate what future earnings might be.
If past earnings by themselves were the factor why do
stocks suddenly drop when companies announce lower expectations?
THE SIGNIFICANT NUMBER
is projected earnings for one or more forward periods,
AND THAT COMES FROM
past earnings
adjusted for expected changed sales, costs, product
mix, management changes, financings, taxes etc
to produce projected earnings for one or more
future periods
UNADJUSTED PAST EARNINGS ARE SIGNIFICANT
O N L Y
when the immediate future is expected to resemble the immediate past so that adjustments are not needed
SO THE QUESTION IS
How will the CBQI future resemble or differ
from its past?
GARY YOU KNOW ANSWER
in short term price of any stock reflects only
the push by those wanting to immediately sell compared to the pull by those wanting to immediately buy.....its like a tug of war match where the stronger side prevails
Day to day its buyers vs sellers and does not reflect
what any company is doing
In long run..... hopefully any company stock results from buyers and sellers who are influenced by what company is doing
But it does not necessarily happen every day with every stock.
==================
Its encouraging to see that INFY is booming with their software outsourcing from USA to India. And I ask myself
why shoudn't there also be a good business outsourcing from USA to China??????
BIXMAN
In trying to develop numbers here is a
worksheet which needs to be filled in
1. Take profit of each company and add together
2. Subtract expenses that might be eliminated from the
consolidation of the different companies
3. Add expenses that might be incurred from
the consolidation of the different companies
4. estimate additional sales that might result from cross selling product of one company to customers of other company
5. estimate "normal sales growth"
6. estimate profit or loss on such additional sales and add to total
7. forecast sales that might develop from new products and services like outsourcing to China or India
8. forecast profit or loss on such new sales and add to total
9. account for unexpected unforseen positive or negative developments and add or subtract from total
If you can do all above you will have an accurate idea of the earnings of CBQI.
GARY
Consider my logic and tell me if you agree with
the theory
1. Stock prices are based on discounted future earnings
(and of course market conditions)
2. The question is how to predict future earnings
3. Past earnings could be a valid factor in predicting future earnings if the future business model replicates the past actual experience
4. If the past experience is of several unrelated companies
then judgment must be applied to take the consolidated figures for the previously unrelated companies and add or subtract the
expected changes after consolidation and after change in business model
5. If the future business model will be materially different than the previously unrelated companies the use of historical figures is not a reliable predictor of future earnings
6. And then a perfect prediction of corporate earnings needs a perfect prediction of market conditions to yield an accurate assessment of stock prices
BIX
My own philosophy about CBQ is that it is impossible to PROVE TODAYS stock values.
Each of us could be right depending on unknown future sales and cost variables which might occur at levels from 1x to 100x.
Your concern about facts is appropriate if you are measuring a future company that is a "normal" outgrowth of the present domestic programming companies.
However, if the numbers for "normal" domestic programming are 10x and if the China outsourcing happens at level 5x then the past facts are relevant.
However, if "normal" domestic programming is 10x and the China outsourcing develops at level 50x or 100x (and I dont know if which level might result) then the value of CBQ depends on my guess or your guess of the future profitability at levels 50x or 100x which could bear no relation to "normal" domestic programming at 10x
And it is possible that China outsourcing sales might be 50x
(or ????x).... but resulting profit could be 10x or 100x depending on costs and pricing policies.
IN MY OPINION the TODAYS value of CBQ depends on what we think will happen with the China outsourcing......its volume and its
profitability .......and your guess is as good as mine......and all we have to go on are wild subjective guesses at this early stage.....and the level of our confidence
in the sincerity and ability of management.
BESIDES GARY GETTING WORD TO WALL STREET
there is something we holders can also do
1. post the CBQI story to other newsletters and
other posting boards
2. talk it up with your brokers and advisers
3. stop the nasty and childish postings such as
several bashers have done
4. point out to others the opportunities you see
in the stock and the reasons therefor
5. buy more shares yourself
6. recommend your friends and associates to become
customers of of CBQ
7. introduce other business opportunities to CBQ
for acquisition or joint venture
8. help make the company successful and the world
will find it
BIX........SOME THOUGHTS ON VALUE
It was nice meeting you last nite.
I welcome your ideas on measuring corporate performance.
The problem is that TODAY all we have to look at are
figures on previously unrelated and independent companies
A, B, C and D.
Even if we have perfect numbers, the summation of companies
A, B, C and D will not relate to the future performance
of the consolidated company ABCD which probably will be engaged in a different business MIX than either A or B
or C or D.
That different future business is likely to be the present businesses of A and B and C and D.........PLUS SOFTWARE OUTSOURCING TO CHINA. There is no way to measure today the outcome of China outsourcing by the consolidated company ABCD.....simply because it has not yet happened and we
have no paper trail by which to measure.
Unfortunately the future value of ABCD is
a. the historical sum of present unrelated businesses
of A and B and C and D
b. minus your guesstimate of cost savings from duplicate functions and discontinued services and new services
c. plus a wild subjective guess as to China outsourcing both as to volume and profitability
Here is a silly example. You have a pound of carrots, a
pound of tomatoes and a gallon of water from which ingredients one is asked to forecast the taste and
quality of the future vegetable soup. It cant be done.
The biggest unknown is ""will China outsourcing succeed
and how big could it be?"".......$10 mil year? $50 mil
year?,$100 mil year? .....and will profit be 5%, 20% or
50%. Pick your variables and you get wildly different
answers.
Best suggestion is to add the known info from A and B
and C and D to get a base.....then look at figures for
INFY and GUESS what CBQ could develop......and add them together to form a wild subjective projection.
The important thing to remember is that the future CBQ
is not the mathematical extrapolation of historical
A and B and C and D.
You are on right track but unfortunately all the hard
figures you need to value the company do not yet exist.
MORE ON INFOSYS
http://www.indiainfoline.com/nevi/rehe.html
long interesting article on that company and
the software outsource industry
important background info
or see Raging Bull
INFY
post #384
xxxxx
if anyone has names and links to other software
outsourcing firms I would appreciate your posting info here
BACKGROUND ON INDIA SOFTWARE
When thinking about software outsourcing you might
wish to look up
INFOSYS TECHNOLLOGIES LTD
symbol INFY
they are an India based software company.
AOL Investment Research shows
employees 5390
9 mos 12.31.00
revenue $ 293,000,000
net after tax $ 93,000,000
shares 65,000,000
SOFTWARE OUTSOURCING TO INDIA
In connection with the CBQ program to outsource
programming to China, you may wish to read about
outsourcing to India
http://www.cadence.com/articles/mehta.html
Article titled ""LOOKING TO INDIA FOR OUTSOURCING""
Good background when considering software outsourcing to
China
will be there
wearing pink and white plaid shirt
6 pm tonite thursday
DA
what interested me most was statement that CBQ is now doing a big programming job for an American auto manufacturer using outsourcing facilities in China
I dont know if this was first China job or the largest of
several jobs............but it is proof that the system
is starting to work