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Dear God, Please help me to adjust my life to you. I pray for wisdom and boldness to do what is right. Show me the way, whether I need to change jobs, make new friends, break bad habits, or whatever the case. Make me aware of how I need to change and adjust, so that I will be pleasing to you and will receive the blessings you have in store for me. May you be glorified in all I do. With thanksgiving and praise, amen.
God, I know that you gave Your best for me. Please forgive me for falling short; for the sin in my life; for taking You for granted. I want to give back my best to You. Thank you for the special gifts You have given...the gift of Your only begotten Son, of eternal life, of fellowship with You, of hope for a future, of Your presence, of all You do and all You give, of Your unconditional love. I praise You and lift You high today, as I celebrate the birth of Jesus. I love You. Merry Christmas.
Nice board here...got it bookmarked.
UNG board at #board-9806 FYI
Merry Christmas all!
Dear God, Thank you for always being with me. Please help me, and remind me, not to react to situations in a fleshly manner. When I am faced with vicious gossip or wrongdoing against me or something I strongly disagree with, please help me to remain silent when I should and to speak with calm wisdom when called for, but to never lose my temper or just "react." I want to act like a Christian should act. I want to be a testimony for my Lord and Savior. I want to remain faithful in whatever circumstance. May You be glorified. Thank You so much for Your guidance, patience, and love. In Jesus' name I pray, amen.
Mexico: Oil output down 9.3 percent from last year
The Associated Press
MEXICO CITY -- Mexico's state oil company says production was down 9.3 percent in the first 11 months of the year, compared with the same period in 2007.
Petroleos Mexicanos says output averaged 2.8 million barrels a day between January and November, down from 3.1 million during the same period last year.
Oil exports fell 17.3 percent to 1.4 million barrels a day during that period.
The decline is mostly due to falling production at Mexico's biggest oil field, Cantarell. Output there fell 31 percent to 1 million barrels a day.
The company released the figures on Monday.
Lawmakers have approved an energy-reform package aimed at boosting production by giving Pemex more leeway to hire private firms and devote more revenue to exploration.
Natural Gas Soars Ahead Of Inventory Data
Tuesday December 23, 2008 18:03:00 EST
(RTTNews) - Natural gas posted its largest one-day percentage gain in three months as cold temperatures across the U.S. have fueled demand. January natural gas closed at 5.737 per million British thermal units or 44.3 cents, or 8.4%. Natural gas reached as high as $5.862 earlier in the day.
Traders looked ahead to the Energy Information Administration's weekly inventory report, which is due at noon Wednesday. The data will be released a day earlier because of the Christmas holiday on Thursday.
Last week's data showed natural gas stockpiles were down 124 billion cubic feet in the week ended Dec. 12. Experts were looking for a more modest drop of about 110 bcf.
Gasoline prices inched lower again on Tuesday, according to AAA. A regular gallon of gasoline slipped to $1.659, compared to $2.974 one-year ago at this time. Gas prices hit a record $4.114 in July.
On the economic front, a Commerce Department report showed that new home sales fell 2.9 percent to an annual rate of 407,000 in November from a revised October rate of 419,000. Economists had been expecting new home sales to fall by about 4.2 percent.
Meanwhile, existing home sales fell 8.6 percent to an annual rate of 4.49 million in November from a downwardly revised rate of 4.91 million in October. Economists had expected sales to slip to 4.93 million from the 4.98 million originally reported for the previous month.
In other economic news, the Commerce Department released its final report on gross domestic product in the third quarter, showing that the pace of contraction in economic activity during the quarter was unrevised at 0.5 percent. Gold prices ended higher on Monday, reversing some of a slump from late last week. Gold for February delivery closed at $847.20, up $9.80 for the session. Prices reached as high as $853.00 in intraday trading.
Oil continued its decline on Tuesday and finished below $39 per barrel. Light sweet crude for February delivery climbed to $38.98, down 93 cents on the session. Prices reached as high as $40.65 but later fell as low as $37.79.
BGU, FAS, & TNA
BGU--Large cap will dominate as small cap will not benefit from the January Effect as investors will be risk adverse to small caps.
FAS--Financials beaten down and due to respond to the TARP soon.
TNA--A hedge just in case my thinking about BGU is wrong.
Putin says 'cheap gas era' ending
Gas producers want more co-operation at a time of growing uncertainty
The era of cheap gas is coming to an end, Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has told ministers from the world's major gas-exporting countries.
Mr Putin said the cost of extracting gas was rising sharply, therefore "the era of cheap energy resources, of cheap gas, is of course coming to an end".
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) meeting in Moscow has agreed a charter and plans for a permanent base.
Some observers say the GECF may develop into an Opec-style producers' cartel.
This speculation increased with the news that the charter had been adopted and that GECF leaders had agreed to establish permanent offices in Doha, Qatar.
Mr Putin had earlier said Russia was ready to set up the headquarters in St Petersburg and give it full diplomatic status.
"A new organisation has been born today, said Russian Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko.
As the head of the government of the world's biggest gas exporter, Mr Putin's word carries weight both with producers and consumers, the BBC's James Rodgers in Moscow.
But despite Mr Putin's warning, gas prices - which tend to follow oil prices with a delay of a few months - seem likely to fall in the short term, he says.
The EU gets 42% of its gas imports from Russia, mostly via pipelines across Ukraine.
The Moscow meeting comes amid growing concern that a new contract dispute between Russia's gas giant Gazprom and Ukraine could disrupt gas supplies to Europe this winter.
'Not a cartel'
Concerns over energy security mean a formal organisation of gas exporting countries would be deeply unpopular in Europe and the US.
It is feared that such an organisation could hold a monopoly on world supply and set prices to suit its own needs.
The countries attending are Algeria, Bolivia, Brunei, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Libya, Malaysia, Nigeria, Qatar, Russia, Trinidad and Tobago, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Equatorial Guinea and Norway are attending as observers.
It is not ruled out that the current position of the Ukrainian side... could lead to disruptions in the stability of gas supplies
Viktor Zubkov ,
Gazprom chairman
Q&A: Why EU needs Russian gas
Send us your comments
As well as the possibility of formalising the organisation, issues including possible future cuts in gas production and the effect of lower oil prices are also likely to be on the agenda, our correspondent says.
Industry analysts say technical differences between the oil and gas markets - including longer-term contracts for gas exports - make it unlikely for now that gas exporters will set Opec-style quotas.
Officials at the meeting stressed they were not trying to set up a price-fixing cartel.
Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said participant countries wanted to build a solid organisation, "which has in its foundation the same principles that gave birth to Opec".
But he added: "It's not a cartel. We are defending the interests of our countries, that's all."
Ukraine row
At the moment Russia remains locked in a dispute with Ukraine over non-payment of debts.
Russia's Gazprom says Ukraine owes it $2bn (£1.4bn) and has warned it may cut off gas supplies next month if the dispute remains unresolved.
On Monday, Gazprom said it had warned European customers about possible disruption linked to the Ukraine dispute.
"It is not ruled out that the current position of the Ukrainian side and some of its actions could lead to disruptions in the stability of gas supplies to Europe," Gazprom Chairman and First Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov said in a statement.
A similar dispute three years ago saw Russia briefly cutting gas deliveries to its neighbour, action that also affected supplies to several western European countries.
Gas Producers’ Club, Based on OPEC, Will Have Doha Headquarters
By Lucian Kim and Stephen Bierman
Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Russia, Iran and other countries controlling the world’s biggest natural-gas reserves agreed to coordinate forecasts, investments and relations with consumers to defend their market interests amid volatile energy prices.
The 15-member Gas Exporting Countries Forum, which adopted a charter in Moscow yesterday, will locate the headquarters of its new secretariat in Doha, Qatar, the biggest source for world liquefied natural gas shipments. LNG may eventually form the basis for more global gas trading.
Western consumer countries have warned against a “gas OPEC” modeled after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Producers will face a challenge shaping the market, where 70 percent of gas is still sent by pipeline to regional consumers and no global benchmark price exists on an exchange.
“This is a significant event for the market,” Russian President Dmitry Medvedev told reporters after the meeting. “Global stability, energy security and the balance of interests between exporters, transit states and consumers depend on the agreed position of the exporting countries.”
The charter transforms it from a loose, consultative body into a formal organization. Russia, which spearheaded the drive for closer coordination, says gas producers won’t be able to copy OPEC and need a forum similar to the International Energy Agency, which represents consumer nations.
“A new organization was born today,” Russian Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko said. “We didn’t limit ourselves in any of the tasks facing gas producers. We agreed that nothing would be off-limits.” The group will choose a secretary-general at its meeting next year, Shmatko said.
Regional Market
Unlike oil, which is traded internationally and has global exchange-based prices, gas is sold regionally, frequently under long-term, private contracts where pricing is more opaque. Where exchange-based prices exist, they reflect local supply and demand fluctuations.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S. natural gas futures fell to $5.294 per million British thermal units on Dec. 22, the lowest settlement since September 2006, before rallying yesterday. The decline reflects the drop in crude oil, which has fallen about 60 percent this year.
“Coordination will prevent unnecessary and harmful competition in the market that may be to the detriment of exports,” Iranian Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari told the forum. Gas market participants should be able to “adjust and revise gas export prices whenever necessary.” Yesterday’s summit in Moscow was postponed several times amid reports that member nations disagreed over the group’s future direction.
Oil Volatility
OPEC itself failed to prevent oil rising to a record $147.27 a barrel in July, driven by demand from China and other Asian economies and speculative purchases. The oil producers’ group has also been unable to stem the plunge in oil to below $40 this week amid recession in the U.S. and Europe, even with an announced cut of 4.2 million barrels a day in production from its September levels.
Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez told the Moscow meeting that gas producers should adopt the “same principles” as OPEC. “We need mechanisms and tools that will let us better interact between gas exporters to avoid competition,” he said.
Russia, which supplies a quarter of Europe’s gas, has argued that the gas market can’t be compared with the spot trades and mobility of the global oil market. The world’s largest crude producer outside of OPEC, Russia has been reluctant to coordinate supply cuts with other countries.
Doha Selection
“I believe exporters can find the balance between competition and the harmonization of their energy policies,” Shmatko said. “Our most important task is the synchronization of our investment plans so that oversupply doesn’t emerge in one part of the world that would put pressure on prices.”
Doha beat competition from three other cities to host the forum’s permanent secretariat. St. Petersburg, Algiers and Tehran were also under consideration.
OPEC was founded in 1960 by Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The Gas Exporting Countries Forum held its first meeting in Tehran in 2001.
Forum members include Algeria, Bolivia, Brunei, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Indonesia, Iran, Libya, Malaysia, Nigeria, Qatar, Russia, Trinidad & Tobago, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Norway and Kazakhstan have observer status.
Largest Producer
Russia is the world’s largest natural gas producer, with output of 607 billion cubic meters in 2007, according to BP Plc statistics. Iran produced 112 billion, Algeria 83 billion and Qatar 60 billion that year. Production in the U.S. in 2007 was 546 billion cubic metres, and in Canada 184 billion.
Russia also has the largest proven natural gas reserves in the world, with 44.7 trillion cubic meters at the end of 2007, followed by Iran with 27.8 trillion and Qatar with 25.6 trillion.
The meeting coincides with a dispute between Russia and Ukraine over gas supplies. Russia has told its neighbor, which ships about four-fifths of the nation’s gas exports to Europe via its pipelines, that it will cut deliveries in the event of a failure to be paid for energy shipments in 2008.
"And the heavens declare the glory of God; And the firmament shows His handiwork." Dear God, I praise you, Creator of the universe, father of mankind, sustainer of all. May you be glorified through your creation and through my life. Please minister through me to the people around me. Help me to be a witness to the truth of your Word and your work. In Jesus' name I pray, amen.
Looks like a test of .43--.46 is coming soon...
Hi shake,
Think the trendline support will hold for SEA? Or does it fall back to eight?
SSL on trend line support. Think it will hold Dcon?
Developers Ask U.S. for Bailout as Massive Debt Looms
By LINGLING WEI and JON HILSENRATH
With a record amount of commercial real-estate debt coming due, some of the country's biggest property developers have become the latest to go hat-in-hand to the government for assistance.
A recent report by Deutsche Bank http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/Special_Report_10dec08.pdf shows a sharp drop in the number of loans paying off from October to November. Discuss: Should the government bail out property developers?They're warning policymakers that thousands of office complexes, hotels, shopping centers and other commercial buildings are headed into defaults, foreclosures and bankruptcies. The reason: according to research firm Foresight Analytics LCC, $530 billion of commercial mortgages will be coming due for refinancing in the next three years -- with about $160 billion maturing in the next year. Credit, meanwhile, is practically nonexistent and cash flows from commercial property are siphoning off.
Unlike home loans, which borrowers repay after a set period of time, commercial mortgages usually are underwritten for five, seven or 10 years with big payments due at the end. At that point, they typically need to be refinanced. A borrower's inability to refinance could force it to give up the property to the lender.
A recent letter sent to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, and signed by a dozen real-estate trade groups, painted a bleak scenario: "Right now, we believe there is insufficient systemic capacity to refinance expiring, performing commercial real-estate loans," said the letter. "For many borrowers, [credit] simply is not available," the letter noted.
To head off some of the impending pain, the industry is asking to be included in a new $200 billion loan program initially created by the government to salvage the market for car loans, student loans and credit-card debt. This money is intended to go directly to help investors finance purchases of securities backed by these assets. If commercial real estate is included, banks might have an incentive to make more loans to developers since they'd be able to repackage and sell them more easily to investors with the assurance of government backing.
As part of their lobbying efforts, some industry representatives have asked lawmakers to explore the idea of setting up a separate program aimed at boosting lending to commercial real estate only.
"We've been urging Washington to put this as one of the top priorities in dealing with the economy," says Steven Spinola, president of the Real Estate Board of New York, underscoring the need for the government to help spur commercial property lending either directly or indirectly.
The real-estate executives are warning that the approaching surge in commercial mortgages coming due poses another major threat to the global financial system, which already is on life support. With rent prices falling and vacancies rising due to the weakening economy, delinquencies on commercial mortgages already have begun to rise sharply.
Up until now, delinquencies on commercial real-estate loans have stayed below historical levels thanks in part to the limited amount of speculative construction in recent years. But now they're rising at a time when a huge volume of loans are coming due and some of the few institutions that were still making loans are retreating from the market.
"The credit crisis has got so bad that refinancing of even good loans may be drying up," says Richard Parkus, head of commercial-mortgage-backed securities research at Deutsche Bank.
Commercial real-estate owners, of course, are just the latest to get in line in Washington, D.C., for the billions of bailout dollars that the government has begun to hand out. Other businesses that have received or are campaigning for some form of aid include banks, credit-card issuers, car companies and even farm equipment maker Deere & Co.
Real-estate owners are pressing the government to take preemptive action before thousands of properties begin to fail. Among those who have been active in the lobbying effort: William Rudin, whose family is a large Manhattan office-building owner, Stephen Ross, chief executive of The Related Cos., a major U.S. developer, and Steven Roth, chief executive of office and retail landlord Vornado Realty Trust.
In recent weeks, industry representatives have met with officials in the Treasury Department, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, senior lieutenants of Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairwoman Sheila Bair, members of President-elect Barack Obama's transition team, and Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.).
One potential challenge for the industry: Though some Treasury and Fed officials are worried about the impact of its troubles on credit markets, other sectors -- such as the residential mortgage and auto industries -- are more pressing concerns.
Treasury and Fed officials have said they would consider including commercial real-estate in the new $200 billion loan initiative. But such a step won't happen soon. The program is not likely to be operational until February. Even then, expanding it to include the immense commercial real estate market would likely require additional financial support from the Treasury.
For now, the Treasury has agreed to backstop the Federal Reserve on as much as $20 billion of losses on the program. That means Treasury will take the first $20 billion of any losses using funds approved by Congress for the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program.
There's widespread agreement that a record volume of commercial real-estate loans made during the boom years are starting to come due. According to Foresight Analytics, the $530 billion of commercial mortgages that will be maturing between now and 2011 includes loans held by banks, thrifts and insurance companies as well as loans packaged and sold as commercial-mortgage-backed securities -- or CMBS.
At the heart of the financing scarcity is the virtual shutdown of the market for CMBS, where Wall Street firms sliced and diced commercial mortgages into bonds. During the recent real-estate boom that took off in 2005 and lasted through early 2007, that market fueled the lending to real estate because banks could sell easily the loans they made. But the credit crisis that started in the summer of 2007 has put the securitization market on hold, which, in turn, has caused lenders of all stripes to become increasingly reluctant to make new loans.
While commercial real-estate developers restrained themselves during the boom years when it came to speculative development, property investors bid up the prices of office buildings, malls and other projects to record levels assuming rents and occupancies would keep rising. With cash flows now falling, a growing number of developers are having a tough time repaying their debt. In cases where owners need to sell buildings to satisfy loans, the current environment makes that difficult. A revitalized lending climate is necessary, they say, to keep them afloat.
What's not clear is how soon the crunch will come. The Real Estate Roundtable, a major industry trade group, predicts that more than $400 billion of commercial mortgages will come due through the end of 2009. Foresight Analytics estimates that $160 billion of commercial mortgages will mature next year.
Jeff DeBoer, president and chief executive officer of the Roundtable, says the group came up with its estimate by looking at the $3.4 trillion of commercial real-estate loans outstanding. It's not unusual for roughly 10% of the industry's debt to roll over every year, he says, referring to refinancings.
This year, some $141 billion worth of commercial real-estate debt owed by property owners and developers to lenders came due, according to Foresight Analytics. Most of that was refinanced or extended by existing lenders. The lion's share of those loans was made between five and 10 years ago. Despite the recent decline in property values, the underlying buildings were still worth well more than their mortgages and were generating sufficient cash to pay debt service.
But the delinquency rate on payments to mortgage lenders is rising, particularly for properties that were financed at the top of the market. Delinquencies on commercial mortgages jumped to 0.96% in November, up from 0.62% in September.
Some analysts predict the delinquency rate will leap to 2% by the end of next year. During the real-estate collapse of the early 1990s, the worst-performing commercial mortgages -- those that were made in 1986 -- sustained losses of about 10%.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122991429181825709.html
Why Lazard is Wrong About LDK
posted on: October 24, 2007 | about stocks: LDK
Lazard Capital initiated LDK Solar (LDK) with a "sell" rating yesterday. Here are the comments made by Lazard:
As mentioned at 7:09 Lazard initiated LDK with a Sell and a $25 tgt saying they have concerns regarding LDK's long-term competitive advantage and the potential for consensus estimates to prove highly optimistic, despite the co's ability to ramp capacity rapidly and secure long-term contracts. The firm says their concerns extend beyond recent allegations regarding financial controls, which could continue to weigh on the shares until there is some clarity, potentially impacting LDK's ability to access additional capital to meet an already aggressive schedule to produce polysilicon in-house.
Now for my two cents.
In my professional career as a trader/investor, I have not used Wall Street analysts' recommendations as the basis for a trade/investment. The years I've spent in the market (since 1994) have proven time and time again, that the analysts are biased, have exceptionally poor timing, and are self-serving to the needs of their employers.
Having said that, I do not blindly ignore what the analysts say, but rather, take their comments and review them against my own due diligence. Following is my discussion of the Lazard comments:
1) Competitive Advantage - Long Term vs Short Term:
A question of the "short term" competitiveness of LDK is valid as LDK does need to be a "low-cost" producer, and they are currently doing this by using a combination of scrap/recycled polysilicon and virgin polysilicon. So, indeed, if their process cost of material goes up due to less than usable materials, then they do lose some of their competitive advantage.
However, Lazard, said "long term" competitiveness is a question - this is not true, due to the complete vertical integration plan of LDK that will, in fact, assure "long term" competitiveness for LDK. Under LDK's polysilicon production plan, by the end of 2008, they will be a leading producer of virgin polysilicon, and a dominate world leader by the end of 2009.
2) Meeting Consensus Estimates:
No one has a handle on the magnitude of the demand for solar cells. This is especially true for analysts in the USA, which is backward thinking in terms of renewable energy and its importance and demand in this decade, and for decades to come. However, China, Europe, and Asia get it - and what "it" is, is the world must invest in clean, renewable energy sources - there are no "ifs, ands, or buts" about this. Unless of course, you are a US analyst beholden to big oil (ala Lazard, GS, et al).
LDK is signing, and will continue to sign huge solar wafer supply contracts that ensure exceptional top-line revenue growth. And with the completion of the vertical integration plan for producing virgin polysilicon, the bottom-line earnings will not be influenced by outside supply constraints of polysilicon. This locks in huge profit margins for LDK. With this, not only is LDK likely to meet expectations, but blow those expectations out of the water.
3) Access to Captial Funding:
This comment is so ridiculous as to be almost humorous. Likely rooted in the arrogance of Wall Street, and fear of China rising - the Wall Street kids just don't understand the nature of China's will.
China will fund LDK with guaranteed low-rate loans. Also, LDK has the option of listing on the China exchange, which would infuse the company with a huge amount of cash.
The Chinese see things long term, combined with unstoppable energy and commitment to being world-class. The Chinese are not beholden to the banks in the US that only view business in a "quarter by quarter; what's your share price today" mentality.
4) Aggressive In-House Polysilicon Schedule:
Indeed, to construct and have operating, a functional, 6,000 tonne/yr polysilicon plant by the end of 2008, and expanding to 15,000 tonne/yr by the end of 2009, is aggressive.
It is also, opportunistic. And to see it through, LDK has contracted with Flour as the builder (world-class constructor of complex processing plants) and hired top polysilicon scientists and program managers from the polysilicon industry (MEMC-Spain). LDK combines this outside expertise with a workforce of thousands, all with the same goal, of pulling off the seemingly impossible.
Considering that LDK went from a bare floor start-up to full fledged production of solar wafers in under 6 months, and has ramped its rate of wafer supply by %100/yr, it would appear, that LDK can do what it plans to do.
I will leave you with a final comment, that being, when there is one voice, many listen, and some follow, when there are two voices, some listen, and many don't. When there are many voices, most don't hear any of them, and some her a few of them. Point being, listen to the voices as you so chose, and then listen to your voice as the voice of reason.
You are welcome methodibd.
Thanks for your comments too.
Hang in there Frank!
My favorite StockCharts URL for looking at the QQQs is
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=QQQ,uu[w,a]diclyiay[dc][pc20!h.02,.20!d20,2!i!c50!c200!f...
The chart is suggesting to me unless we close greater than 34.95 on 27 July 04, it's best to stay out or short.
GL!
Hi All,
I'm trying to find the Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 Completion (Full Cap) Index (INDEX)in StockCharts. Does anyone know the symbol? At BigCharts.com it's DWCP but $DWCP doesn't work in StockCharts.
Thanks in advance.