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Great stats, sinclap.
what would be even more interesting to see is more details. If you can find them please post.
Details such as business VS consumer usage AND an annual trend analysis of both business VS consumer use / ownership.
thanks in advance for your research.
and from PC World - unbelievable!
good article very informative
Very sad to hear, Tom was one of the best contributors and leaders of many aapl discussion groups.
he will be missed.
misleading title on article
The question asked was
"If you've heard anything about the brand in the last two weeks, was it positive or negative?"
This has nothing to do with Apple's "cool" with 18 -34 year olds although they did use that term and statement in their report
BUT they also said "While the erosion is significant in terms of the company's tracking, it does not mean Apple is in trouble with the young demographic. "
From Brandindex.com Brandindex is A daily measure of public perception of 850 consumer brands across 34 sectors, measured on a 7-point profile.
Brandindex as far as I can tell is a UK company and I also don't know what population is polled in their surveys (i.e. is it UK only ? worldwide? country specific?)
Great answer dslarsen.
Let's assume for the moment that we use Thurrot's 49 days as the basis for selling 1,000,000 iPads.
Keeping the math really simple, that's still 1,000,000/50 days OR 20,000 iPads a day.
Using that rate, 20,000 x 210 days more in 2010 (again keeping the math simple), that equal 4,200,000 sold in 2010 - in less than one year!
That number while it assumes that the sales rate does not drop off also doesn't account for the iPad being sold in additional countries, the 3G model being introduced, dads and grad sales in June, back-to-school sales in July - September and then Christmas sales in November and December. Even with a nominal competition from other tablets that might come on the market, Apple's iPad will certainly be a great success this year.
Thurrot notes that Apple's announcement "marks the second time that the iPad has missed sales expectations in its short life." He notes "analysts" said that the first weekend iPad was supposed to sell 700,000 and it only sold 300,000. There was only ONE analyst that concluded or predicted that and so what they were wrong. Apple didn't predict anything. The other supposed miss was that http://labs.chitika.com/ipad/ had a method of defining the number of iPads sold and they, by there own admission, were off the mark a bunch of times. They thought they could make a judgement call based on certaiin internet traffic and they counting was off. They have since stopped doing the counting.
So did the iPad miss its sales goals - NO because there were no official stated sales goals by Apple. Do analysts, enthusiasts, PC lovers and all of us make educated and uneducated guess, sure.
Let's wait for the real results for iPad sales to be announced in July at the Financial Conference Call.
We know for certain that it will be more than 1,000,000 iPads sold (and even if it were only 1,000,000 sold that would still be a pretty good opening quarter).
Don't know where you are but a friend was looking for one for his wife and I checked ALL Best Buy stores in Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island and the 16GB is virtually non existent.
In fact, I then checked many states using their website for store inventory and most are sold out of everything. Typically I found perhaps one 64GB model.
Apple Stores also appear to have little or no inventory and the online Apple Store has a 5 - 7 shipping date.
good luck
Gartner: Apple U.S. Sales up 34% in Q1 2010 for 8% share of PC sales
HP and Dell sales up only 7%; Acer and Toshiba up 50%!
"HP maintained the top position in the U.S. market, but its growth was below the market average (see Table 2). Dell retained the No. 2 position in the U.S. market, but continued to face challenges in the consumer market. Toshiba's shipments grew 50 percent in the U.S. market, as it became more competitive with pricing and promotions. Toshiba also did well in the value segment of notebooks. Apple created major attention with its media tablet, the iPad, which launched in April. The hype around the iPad added positive sentiment to the company's PC shipments. Early estimates showed that Apple grew 34 percent in the U.S. market."
This includes sales for both desktop and mobile computers in the U.S.
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1353330
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I am not suggesting you buy Apple Stock but why would you buy aapl shares if there were a pullback? and at what level?
Seriously, I am not criticizing I am just trying to understand everyone's thinking.
Say, Apple shares drop by $10 to $230 would you buy then? what is a good buying opportunity?
If we agree that Apple Shares will one day within the next 18 months be at $300 a share, what rate of return are you expecting, i.e. what price does aapl have to be for you to buy it.
As noted in my previous message, going from $240 to $300 is a 25% increase. Is that good for a one year return? an 18 month return? or a three month return?
what are the expectations on your (the collective and individual) returns on your investments?
What level of return would be disappointing?
If Apple drops to $220 why would you buy? Aren't you concerned that you could be buying a falling knife? If it drops to $220 do you then say it will go back up even higher than before and now test new highs around $300 in the short term (what ever that definition is?)?
Seriously, what are the members expectations on rate of return? also when do you sell?
I have day traded Apple and I have bought Apple long term (which is what my bundle is for now). But at some point I have to sell. No one ever has any profits unless you sell.
Thoughts?
If Apple only gets to $280 by the end of 2011, I really should sell now and put the money elsewhere.
That's only a 16% appreciation from where we are now.
That's how we have to think about aapl in terms of percent gains.
Assuming a reasonable upside to the market this year, I would hope my portfolio gains at least 20%. I actually have goals for the year set at 8% and have already exceeded those (and knock on wood, I hope I can maintain at least that).
So what can be reasonably expected from Apple over the next six months, one year and 18 month periods?
My hopes for aapl
Today = $240
@ 12/31/2010: $275 (15% above where we are today and about 31% increase for the year)
@ 6/30/2011: $300 (about 25% greater than where we are today)
@ 12/31/2011: $355 (about 48% greater than where we are today)
So come on, let's play a game. What do you think the price will be on aapl on 12/31/2010, 6/30/2011 and 12/31/2011?
Sure a million things could happen but let's see what you're thinking today!
Today aapl closed at i$240 +/-
If you believe it will go to $300 a share then you would have a 25% gain.
Based on buying 10 shares you would have a short term capital gain of $600 if Apple reaches $300 within a year.
The other question is what is your fee for buying 10 shares. Through fidelity I would pay $7.95.
Bottom line question is, is a 25% gain worth it to you? (assuming Apple goes to $300 a share)
Are there better investments for you?
Some say to play the component makers.
So what are you going to do?
"I find it interesting that you believe MS defeated (my paraphrase) Apple as a result of a poorly written contract. For starters, if Jobs is so great, why would he have signed it? More importantly, there was no poorly written contract. "
Perhaps I just don't understand what you are talking about but hmmm, Steve Jobs left Apple in 1985 and didn't return until 1996.
If you are talking about a agreement/contract between Microsoft and Apple regarding MS's use of the Mac OS technology in Windows, that was done by John Sculley and it was a LICENSE that was granted.
But perhaps you know all this due to your experience working with Apple and Microsoft.
Please explain further.
Thanks
Perhaps not for long.
it may be merged into Best Buy.
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/latestnews/stories/032710dnbusradioshack.1e5e5b55e.html
"Report: RadioShack considering sale, Best Buy merger
Is the Shack throwing in the towel?
According to a report in the New York Post, Fort Worth-based RadioShack Corp. is considering a possible sale of the company for as much as $3 billion. The newspaper cited unidentified people close to the situation and also said RadioShack is reviewing a merger with Best Buy Co."
yeah, there will NOT be any aapl share split
check these videos out on developing for the iPAD.
Incredible stuff !
If this is what interactive magazines on the iPAD are going to be, the iPAD will be great.
making the IPAD magazine - behind the scenes
http://vimeo.com/10204353
Article
http://mashable.com/2010/03/17/awesome-ipad-digital-magazine-demo-video/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Mashable+%28Mashable%29
the iPAD magazine demo video
http://vimeo.com/10207926
Other videos on these sites as well.
the ironic part of these on-line videos is that they are being presented in FLASH which do not work on the iPAD, iPHONE and iPOD Touch. You can view these as HTML5 but frankly they take longer to load and have been a little jerky for me.
6:05AM EST Apple Store offline. "We'll be back soon. We are busy updating the store for you and will be back shortly."
145 minutes to iPad pre-order lift off.
split
not going to happen.
Sorry for the double posting ... i don't know how that happened.
I want Steve Jobs to be healthy, happy and productive at Apple and in his life for the next 40 years but if he were to leave tomorrow, there would be an adverse reaction for certain but I think we have already seen that Apple can function very well with him on the sidelines. The management team is excellent. They would continue to do very well.
I want Steve Jobs to be healthy, happy and productive at Apple and in his life for the next 40 years but if he were to leave tomorrow, there would be an adverse reaction for certain but I think we have already seen that Apple can function very well with him on the sidelines. The management team is excellent. They would continue to do very well.
Using percentage is always a tricky deal - because it can be tricky to do so and it can result in trickery.
I am a big Apple ethusiastic and have a big chunk of aapl stock but look at that table.
Clearly CY 2008's Apple growth was great ... but did have it's low points WHEN COMPARED to the corresponding month in CY 2007.
Then in comparison to CY 2008, CY2009 months are at a disadvantage since growth was very high from the previous years. (percentages being highly dependent on increases from the base you are working from). So what is coincidental (or not) is that when the increases in a month in 2008 were high, the increases in the corresponding 2009 month are low. Note the only big months increases in 2009 were when the numbers in 2008 (November and December) were low.
The low increases in the last two months of 2008 were clearly attributable to the economy falling off the cliff at the end of the year AND 2007 numbers for that same period being very high.
So now, we base our predictions based on 2009.
I like the optimism and agree with it but is this analysis telling us anything?
While a price target of $250 +/- a bit seems crazy high. It doesn't from many perspectives and simple math shows that going to a price of $250 would only be about a 25% increase from 2009 year end levels.
25% stock growth for a company that seems to be running on all cylinders and has lots of potential.
So is that outrageous?
time will tell.
Steve Job says NO
reported on CNBC
The reporter basically said that steve jobs said that
- company is into taking bold risks, emphatic risks .... and this gives the company flexibility.
- paying dividends would not change stock price
- apple has to think big to move the needle
- apple is very comfortable sitting on the cash right now
- Apple sees opportunities internationally
Apple STore DOWN - new MacBook Pros???
Cringley's view (which I like) re: Steve Jobs
http://www.cringely.com/2009/01/don’t-worry-about-apple/
Don’t Worry about Apple
I knew things were bad when Steve Jobs didn’t make even a token video appearance at Macworld. He would have done it, I’m sure, had he been well enough. Maybe someone at Apple, weeks before, thought of suggesting such a video, but of course to do so then would have been committing career suicide even if in retrospect it would have been a good idea. So now Steve is off on his six month (or longer) medical leave, readjusting those hormones, and the press is abuzz with what the heck Apple will do without Steve.
Apple will be fine.
Steve Jobs is an amazing chief executive, clearly the best of his era, but that doesn’t make him irreplaceable. True, he saved Apple, but now Apple is saved. The company is rich, has growing market share and a mindshare dominance envied throughout the computer AND music AND video industries. Steve could die tomorrow and Apple would be fine for years to come. Apple might even be better.
Steve, for all his design insight and high standards is also a pain in the ass, but it is his narcissism – keeping the whole company on edge and terrified, will he or won’t he? – that has to have taken a toll and may well land the company in court. Twenty thousand people are sitting around wondering whether their jobs are endangered because he is ill and that’s just crazy.
For a time Apple will be run with everyone asking, “What would Steve say?” And because he’s been such a huge factor in the lives of his direct reports for so long, they’ll have that voice of Steve in their heads and will do the right thing automatically. And eventually, if Steve for some reason doesn’t return to Apple, new Steves will emerge. If that happens I’m guaranteeing right here that Apple will gain a new CEO and it won’t be Tom Cook OR Phil Schiller because neither man can replace Steve Jobs and they know it.
In the long run the goal won’t be to replace Steve, anyway, but to transcend him, because Steve was far from the perfect leader.
The last time Steve Jobs left Apple, back in 1985, the entire company breathed a sigh of relief. Steve back then was an undisciplined brat. John Sculley was able to dramatically improve Apple’s balance sheet through one simple technique – eliminating all the wacky projects Steve was spending $200 million per year running at Apple – projects that were generally never going to hit the market anyway. Alas, that’s where Sculley ran out of gas as a leader because he lacked technical vision where that’s all Steve had in those days.
It took learning to run NeXT on a budget and almost losing the company to teach Steve how to be a leader. It took learning to leave Pixar alone to teach Steve that there were some things – many things – best left to others more talented than he. Those two experiences, added to his fall from grace in 1985, made Steve Jobs the leader he is today. Still all elbows and shoulder blades, he somehow makes it work.
I feel for the guy. It’s not his health scare, but his lack of true friends that worries me. When your best friend is Larry Ellison you know you are in trouble. But that may be the best that either man can do.
Steve is the critic of everyone around him. Yet the image I prefer to keep in mind was from an InfoWorld meeting years ago – back in his NeXT days – when Bob Metcalfe got Steve to show up and he brought with him his little baby. In that short time I saw a doting and concerned father — a side of Steve I would have sworn could not exist. Cynically I attributed it at the time to the baby being pre-verbal: how do you criticize someone who can’t understand what you are saying? But Steve went on to have more kids, apparently with equal success, and I give him credit for that. It’s not easy to be a good Dad.
So here’s to Steve Jobs, may he return in six months or go off and do anything else he likes. But don’t worry about Apple.
Apple’s on a roll.
Apple's U.S. Mac Shipments Grow In Q4 While PC Market Shrinks (AAPL)
http://www.alleyinsider.com/2009/1/apples-us-mac-shipments-grow-in-q4-while-pc-market-shrinks-aapl
Dan Frommer | January 15, 2009 12:00 PM
The PC industry had a terrible fourth quarter: Worldwide shipments grew just 1.1% year-over-year, the worst Q4 growth rate since 2002, research firm Gartner said today. The U.S. was even worse: Q4 shipments dropped 10.1%.
But not every company fared so poorly.
Apple (AAPL) shipped 1.26 million Macs in the U.S. during Q4, according to Gartner, up 8.3% year-over-year. Meanwhile, Dell (DELL) shipped 4.47 million PCs, down 16.4% year-over-year. And HP (HPQ) dropped 3.4% to 4.29 million shipped.
Acer shipments soared 55.4% to 2.37 million shipped, thanks to super-cheap "netbook" laptops.
Without Gartner's estimate of Apple's worldwide shipments, it's hard for us to gauge how this fits into analysts' models for Apple's fiscal Q1, which it'll report next Wednesday. (We'll get them when available.)
It's somewhat encouraging that Apple is growing while the overall market is shrinking. But the corporate market, where Apple is a small player, was a significant part of the slowdown.
Meanwhile, Acer's success supports our thesis that Apple should start selling a consumer-focused tablet computer -- we're calling it the iPod touch HD -- to compete in the fast-growing netbook market.
Apple's FY09 EPS Estimate Too Low
http://financial-alchemist.blogspot.com/2009/01/apples-fy09-eps-estimate-too-low.html
excerpt from first paragraph of article:
Apple Inc (nasd: AAPL)- Apple’s FY09 EPS estimate continues to be revised downward and now stands at a $5.08, a level Apple should easily exceed. The consensus FY09 estimate represents a 5.2% decline from FY08 $5.36 EPS, although revenues are forecasted to increase 11.8%, or $3.8B to $36.3B. Thus, analysts are expecting significant margin compression. Specifically, the consensus estimates for EPS and revenue imply net margin will be 12.8% in FY09, a decline of 2.1% from 14.9% recorded in FY08."
and the conclusion
CONCLUSION:
When considering the amount of high margin deferred revenue and interest income Apple will recognize this year coupled with multiple drivers lending margin support, it’s unlikely Apple’s earnings will fall in FY09. Apple won’t earn $7 to $8 in EPS possible in a favorable economic climate, but EPS won’t decline as analysts predict.
Apple already has $2.89 in incremental EPS in the bag. Including my estimates for new iPhone sales, the incremental EPS effect is $4.04. Considering SG&A and R&D expense, I estimate that EPS from deferred revenue recognition, interest income, and iPhone sales will be $3.43. Adding Mac, iPod, and all other segments, EPS will easily top the $5.08 concensus.
Read whole article here
http://financial-alchemist.blogspot.com/2009/01/apples-fy09-eps-estimate-too-low.html
Perhaps there will be a special event late this month to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the Mac.
They did have a 20th anniversary Mac model in 1997 (20th anniversary of Apple Computer).
In 2002 (or 2004), I recall Steve Jobs noting in a MacWorld keynote that the 25th anniversary of Apple (or the 20th of the Mac) was coming up and perhaps they should do something to celebrate that. He even showed a slide with a photo of him and Woz way back when (must have been the 25th anniversary of Apple).
They never did anything to celebrate that anniversary though.
Perhaps they will later this month for the Mac.
they have the opportunity to do something, let's see if they do it this month.
New: Refurbished Apple MacBook Air Core 2 Duo 1.6GHz 13" for $999 + free shipping, more (updated)
The Apple Store offers its factory-refurbished Apple MacBook Air Intel Core 2 Duo 1.6GHz 13.3" Notebook, model no. MB003LL/A, for $999.99 (update: now $999). With free shipping, that's $150 under last month's mention and the first time we've seen the MacBook Air for less than $1,000. Sales tax is added where applicable. Features include an Intel Core 2 Duo P7500 1.6GHz dual-core processor, 13.3" 1280x800 LED-backlit widescreen LCD, 2GB RAM, 80GB 4200 rpm hard drive, 802.11n wireless, Bluetooth 2.1 + EDR, multi-touch trackpad, and iSight webcam. It carries a 1-year Apple warranty, the same as new units.
Of note, the refurbished Apple MacBook Air Intel Core 2 Duo 1.8GHz 13.3" Notebook, model no. MB450LL/A, is also available for $1,299 with free shipping, $400 under our mention from last month. It features a 64GB SSD drive.
from http://www.dealmac.com
The lack of hardware (macs, ipods, iphones, tablets, other gizmos) other than the expected 17-inch Macbook, I believe, is a sublimnal message by Apple that it will make these announcements on its own schedule per their reasoning to not do MacWorlds anymore.
I believe in the next 30 - 60 days they will have these types of announcements.
please ... how can you compare a 9+ pound, 1.7 inch thick laptop with the new or even the old 17-inch Macbook?
Does this mean anything or is it just polite and eternally optimistic annual greetings?
Coincidentally, my mobileme account was renewed today since I had renewed it last week and today I got this message from Apple.
"Thank you.
Your MobileMe subscription xxxxx@me.com has been renewed until January 07, 2010 PST.
Thank you for being a MobileMe subscriber. It's going to be another great year.
so are they hinting at major changes with MobileMe or as I noted above is this just a polite and eternally optimistic annual greetings??
Tuesday, December 27, 2005 - 10:55 AM EST
what don't I get about what you are saying???
Your latest post and the original link to the original story certainly show a lead off to the story that reference present time BUT that is not when the story was written. The date after the story title headline is Tuesday, December 27, 2005 - 10:55 AM EST
see below extract from your message.
Check date today if you will: Check stock reactions:
Mon, Jan 05, 2009 - 02:36 PM EST — AAPL: 95.74 (+4.99, +5.5%) | NASDAQ: 1632.33 (+0.12, +0.01%)
Amazon’s top 3 best-selling electronics were all Apple iPod models
Tuesday, December 27, 2005 - 10:55 AM EST
"Amazon.com Inc. said holiday sales worldwide set a record ...
Are you saying that today's aapl price increase is due to a three year old story on sales in December 2005?
?????
Here is the original story that your original article condensed. Note the date on this article.
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/253507_amazonsales27.html
It's 2005!!!!!
Here ya go Ryan ... a macbook air closeout?
http://apple20.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2009/01/04/macbook-air-pre-keynote-clearance-sale/
Macbook Air pre-keynote clearance sale
What’s up with the MacBook Air?
The road warrior’s favorite Apple (AAPL) notebook, pulled with great fanfare from an interoffice envelope by Steve Jobs at Macworld 2008, is being steeply discounted this weekend, on the eve of Macworld 2009.
The entry level machine (1.6 GHz, 2GB) is still listed on the Apple Store at its original price — albeit with a 50% larger hard drive and a new graphics chipset. But if you act quickly, you can get it for a lot less.
A quick Sunday-morning survey turned of a wide range of prices:
* Apple Store (120 GB hard drive): $1,799.00
* Amazon (120 GB): $1,739.99
* MacMall* (120 GB): $1739.99
* MacMall* (80 GB): $1,149.99
* Apple Store (80 GB refurbished): $1,149.00
*Note that MacMall — which tosses in a free Epson printer, a free USB hub, free Parallels, free Toast and free shipping — has scheduled its sale to end Monday at 11:59 p.m. PST, nine hours before the start of Phil Schiller’s Macworld keynote.
Could Schiller have a MacBook Air upgrade up his sleeve?
The discounts are not current models, I don't think and the refurbs are refurbs!
but there is still a discount shown here but I don't think it is a signal for MacWorld regarding the MacBook Airs.
2009? What is expected?
here are what some are saying about Apple and 2009 ...
First a MacWorld prediction
http://www.tuaw.com/2009/01/02/tuaw-macworld-2009-keynote-predictions/
now the rest of the year
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/08/12/31/new_shuffle_cheaper_iphone_and_macbooks_seen_in_2009.html --- also check out the 67+ comments made on the article
http://www.pbs.org/cringely/
http://www.macpredictions.com/ --- "pointless idle speculation about Apple, Macs and iPods"
http://www.macsimumnews.com/index.php/archive/my_top_10_apple_predictions_for_2009/
http://www.maclife.com/article/feature/robbies_2009_predictions_stuff_thats_totally_gonna_happen
http://seekingalpha.com/article/111084-five-apple-predictions-for-2009
non-mac
http://www.macworld.com/article/137847/2009predictions.html
http://www.livedigitally.com/2009/01/01/technology-predictions-for-2009/
http://weblog.infoworld.com/fatalexception/archives/2009/01/software_develo.html
http://www.cmswatch.com/Feature/189-Predictions-2009?source=RSS
http://www.bestsecuritytips.com/news+article.storyid+719.htm
That is a crazy shocker if your photo represents what will be seen at Macworld - Steve Jobs doesn't have a black turtleneck on - what the heck is that all about??!?!!!??!
Quick dump your shares of CEO Turtlenecks, Inc.
By 2010, I would expect that the MacBook would be completely revamped and perhaps not even look like a laptop any more.
We can't predict 2009 so how can you expect expectations for 2010?
why are you quoting a three year old article?
"Amazon’s top 3 best-selling electronics were all Apple iPod models
Tuesday, December 27, 2005 - 10:55 AM EST"
Tuesday wild thought:
Phil Schiller will do the keynote but is it possible that Steve Jobs will show up during the presentation BUT located in a remote location using some new Apple product and technology or reinventing or redefining the use of an existing one?
Perhaps, sitting in his living room or in a cafe or a Starbucks in another country.
Apple TV, MacMini and MacBook nano rumors coupled with ???
think different, as they used to say.
???
Refurbished iPhone 3G 8GB for $99 + free shipping, 16GB for $199 Editor's Choice
Refurbished iPhone 3G 8GB for $99 + free shipping, 16GB for $199
With activation of new voice and data plans, AT&T Wireless has several refurbished models of the iPhone 3G on sale, with prices starting at $99. With free shipping via 2-day delivery, each is $50 off our mention from earlier this week and the lowest total price we've seen. Sales tax is added where applicable. It features compatibility with AT&T's 3G network, built-in GPS navigation with Google Maps, enhanced enterprise support, a 3.5" touch screen, at least 5 hours of talk time, and more. Note that a $36 activation fee applies. The deals:
* Apple iPhone 3G 8GB in Black for $99
* Apple iPhone 3G 16GB in Black for $199
* Apple iPhone 3G 16GB in White for $199
from http://dealmac.com/