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The men had higher RRR in JELIS, just FYI
Never mind — it’s tomorrow
Anybody hear anything re AHA?
5pm yes?
It sucks that they didn't make the trial parameters public.
I have theorized that to get 80% power they need 500 events. And that the trial is event based on not time based.
As a reminder regarding RESPECT-EPA and results coming out this weekend - the uninformed expectation out there is a repeat of JELIS, where a 19% RRR was observed for the cohort with a history of CAD.
But that isn't the right expectation for that trial. That cohort of prior CAD patients was 61% female, which is very unusual for any CVD event trial. It's well known that females are less susceptible, and that RRRs tend to be lower in such trials.
If the cohort is more normal (e.g. 70% male, 30% female), the "bullseye" expectation translated from JELIS should be more like 22-23% RRR.
It's fine to have separate strategic and tactical viewpoints, and short-term trade around a long-term view.
But you conflate the two when you post. Your TA spills into your fundy views, and vice versa.
It would take energy (that I don't have) to produce a compendium of all this yo-yoing, but it's out there, and we see it.
FFS do you not remember posts you made last week or even this week?
Last week, if memory serves, you were touting Vascepa as the next elixir, curing everything to Alzheimers to warts to voting Democrat.
You were talking a huge price spike and a move back into the 3's with BO talk recommencing.
Do you not remember anything you post?
He has a TIME MACHINE KNJS. A TIME MACHINE.
Imagine what kind of trading record you could put up if you had a TIME MACHINE.
Incidentally, the non-significant difference (p = .082) becomes very significant if you have 1000 patients instead of the 100 they had, and it becomes insanely significant if you have 39,600 like MITIGATE (even with 1:10 Tx/Placebo)
I've completely lost interest in what other people choose to do
Everyone gets to live their lives as they see fit. And I don't give a shit.
I had precisely the same concern about RESPECT-EPA when I started to get concerned about the powering of the trial, and the likely number of events given the trial size and duration.
That is when I realized that this population HAD to be different from JELIS, which was (oddly) overwhelmingly female for some reason. But in order to be powered reasonably -- and for a Phase III trial that is universally at least 80% powered to show the predicted benefit -- it had to be like most Western trials -- ~70% male and ~30% female.
Then I went back to the JELIS data and adjusted for that presumption, AND that the trial would be 80% powered to show a certain benefit. My rough model indicated that the trial investigators were expecting about a 22% RRR (or so) -- and around 500 CVD events.
If they get that result, the p-value under the trial will be about .005. That isn't REDUCE-IT, but it's clearly confirmatory of REDUCE-IT.
Q3 Earnings Summary:
- Cash burn down to small level
- Cash still over $300 million
- Sales in US reasonably stabilized
- Some (small) sales to start coming on line for ROW
- Catalysts coming in near term (RESPECT-EPA, BRAVE, MITIGATE)
I don't want to get carried away, but it feels like some sort of viable bottom was put in here (for now).
Feels like "Atlas Shrugged" in real life. That's what they did to Henry Rearden.
Keep in mind that Big Pharma could absolutely care less about patient outcomes. They have only one objective in mind -- deliver dollars to the bottom line.
The last thing in the world Big Pharma wants is an economical effective treatment for Alzheimers. That disease sits out there as a gigantic potential source of revenue. Big Pharma wants super-expensive partially-effective treatments that will create a generational cash cow.
A fish oil extract for $300 a month that effectively treats Alzheimers? Big Pharma would rather bring back polio than see that happen.
I could care less about EPS
All that matters is cash
I wonder if there are some arcane Irish corporate rules where these new appointments create another time buffer for AMRN -- like they can't be tossed for some period of time.
These are fair points.
I don't think we can trust current management, and the current Board, to be selecting new members.
I'd rather have someone with a real track record of creating value, like Denner, making those choices.
Incidentally, if we weren't in the middle of all the Denner brouhaha, I think most people would say the two new Board members looked pretty solid.
They both bring rather useful skill sets and backgrounds to the table.
We should now inch up into AHA
$1.40 maybe?
The only votes the current AMRN board is going to get is from itself, management, and any non-votes.
No rational shareholder could possibly be against a housecleaning now.
I didn't say they don't care AT ALL. It's just not as important as protecting the annuity.
Is there some kind of trial for the Olympic Whining Team going on here? If so, you guys are making spectacular cases for yourselves.
Today's response from AMRN management to Sarissa is a clear signal from their echo chamber that they are stone cold deaf to shareholder concerns, and intend to run their BAU playbook -- which will get them paid, and may or may not get the company anywhere.
It is a clear signal that succeeding is hardly their top priority. What really matters is annuity protection for management and board members.
I understand, but I'm trying to remember the last time the markets were responsive to what I needed.
Struggling for an example... maybe 9/24/18?
Bluster all you like — we have no idea what Sarissa’s perspective on AMRN is right now.
When you have your leg in a bear trap, just getting your leg out intact is a pretty good outcome.
Anybody else want to make a moral issue out of my being realistic?
Sometimes getting your money back is a home run.
Mistake management is a big part of superior returns for a private equity firm.
Dude where have you been the last 6 months?
$5 would be miraculous
What was Denner's average price again?
It's about time
Why replace "some" board members? I say take out the whole useless board.
It was already obvious, but...
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34242273/
Wow. Shocking. Since R's are on average probably 10 years older than D's, and much more male on average -- this is definitionally true.
More incredible wisdom!
That’s great news. It will obviously happen.
China also likes just taking your stuff and cheating you out of everything you're due.
Thoughtful stuff — thanks!
I think he wait for the miracle. BRAVE and MITIGATE.
He can't possibly think that the core CVD indication is going to get this thing back up above his buy-in price at this point.
Disagreements are welcomed. Nothing would please me more than to be wrong.
"Shadolane, Why did Denner acquire his AMRN stake? Do you think he did it
without having a plan?"
Yes -- his homework was inadequate.
It happens all the time. These players take a shotgun approach to ten-bangers. If they are right half of the time, they make a fortune.
We need a jaw-dropping new indication!
BRAVE or MITIGATE. Preferably both.
Then tell the US to SUCK IT and take our inventory and patents abroad.