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Given IRB suspension, it's likely a termination for futility/harm, or for efficacy.
Smarter minds will have to assess likelihoods.
Clinicaltrials.gov says (update today) that MITIGATE was suspended by the IRB and subsequently terminated.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04505098?term=vascepa%20kaiser&rank=1https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04505098?term=vascepa%20kaiser&rank=1
Is that good or bad? Sounds bad.
Seriously.
A 15% rise is supposed to be $4 per share!
Good point Tatsu
Silence may actually be golden here. It may mean they are busy behind the scenes trying to get shit done instead of trying to make Karim Mikhail look effective.
Yes I agree
But eating a goose egg on AMRN for a fund that size? Nearly 10% of it?
That gives me faith that he still gives a shit.
If the current picture for this company remains intact, this is worth $3 in a buyout. Period.
The company needs either:
- A huge new indication (e.g. Alzheimers), or
- A huge change in foreign sales success (which would likely occur post-buyout anyhow), or
- A huge unforeseen development either in legislation or in court
There are no stock buybacks coming. That's ridiculous.
Here's an important question: what does the ramp in Europe actually look like timewise?
Is it just the regulatory exclusive period, or does it extend beyond that due to patents (out to like 2039).
If anything wasn't obvious, it was REDUCE-IT -- the whole scientific community published its skepticism in advance of the results.
But I have no idea what "obvious' means any more after Du. And what is the patent landscape like in Europe?
It’s frustrating but we weren’t promised an immediate miracle.
Look back at Sarissa’s success stories. They weren’t half-court three pointers. They were multi-year slogs.
Mucking this stall out is going to take some time…
I agree Monk — this is a multi-year project.
Patience is hard to come by — I have little left — but it is what it is.
At least we have a fighting chance for reasonable salvage.
What happens if MITIGATE is screamingly positive?
What does that set off? Does Kaiser start treating all its insured patients with Vascepa?
What are the sales ramifications? Remember, we're still in US patent hell.
So the law should require an indication for generic prescriptions.
The law should have explicitly made it illegal to fill a generic prescription for an approved indication outside the skinny label.
One could counter that by saying that off-label prescriptions would then be impossible. But that isn't right. You could still prescribe the generic off-label as long as it wasn't an approved indication for the name brand.
If Amarin loses its appeal it means that the concept of "skinny labeling" is complete nonsense.
If generics can use skinny labeling to openly market a generic against all indications, patented or not, then what these Circuit f*cks are really saying is, "We don't give a shit how the law was crafted. Once the camel gets his nose under the tent, he gets to come the whole way in. Period."
We know f*cks like Dyk believe that. Hopefully we don't have to see his dickface again.
Did you really just say that?
What is shows is how artificial even “risk-free” bond market investing is. The Fed’s insistence on wildly manipulating monetary conditions — the classic “I have only have a hammer so everything looks like a nail” lunacy — makes balance sheet management near impossible.
You do shit and hope those 12 idiots don’t get in a bad mood.
Because they are just Sarissa people
Why would they individually own shares?
Anyone who thought this was going to suddenly rocket and be resolved was kidding themselves.
It's not an overnight thing. Look at Denner's other wins. This shit takes time.
Yes, let's have BRAVE show like absurd improvement results, and then just get bought out at $50 based on potential (in ROW of course -- the US is gone).
Something ludicrous like that is not only fair, but appropriate for an end to this rollercoaster ride.
If you remove the patent woes for Vascepa, I'd MORE than agree with you.
The runway on the MDCO drug is clearer and longer. That has a huge impact on its value to an acquirer.
I think at this point Denner would pee himself over a double on his money.
If somebody sees a path to a market cap over $4bn here I'd like to see the math.
You get to $2bn in worldwide sales (which would be incredible) and you have 5-7 years left of exclusivity/maybe patent runway... getting $4bn for that would be pretty impressive.
It's pretty damned impressive, that's for sure
So is eating a Mars Bar sideways. But it sure takes patience and a strong jaw.
I hope Denner is able to chew up the Mars Bar.
The old Board called Sarissa's bluff. That was a pretty big FU. I'm not sure they've enjoyed a complete walkout before...
There's a limit to how much of this is ok. They can't have the whole management team walk out.
Luckily they have such enormous stock grants now that that is unlikely. We're not the only ones who would be happy with an $8 buyout.
That’s your full-assed daily dose of my man MRM.
He talks truth to power. He throws good money after bad.
You stupid bitches better listen up. Denner is the Angel of Mercy. We may not get to Paradise, but we may get out of this thing with our balls still attached to our bodies.
Stop whining, and start shining!
Yeah we aren't a wise guy play now that the proxy battle is over.
The market sees things calming down for awhile with few tangible developments while Sarissa moves from battle mode to manage mode.
The retracement is a bummer but no real surprise.
This is pretty much spot on. I would amend it only slightly:
- KM gets his chance to demonstrate he can pivot to a new strategy. The new board tells him his job is to get this thing sold in two years for $10 a share. He's either on board with that or he isn't.
- There is a decent chance that a subset of the board members will actually prefer the fresh air brought in by the Sarissa directors. I wouldn't assume it'll be a 7 vs 7 donnybrook right out of the gate. We may get surprised on that.
Yes, the last thing in the WORLD this company needs is to buy shitty pipeline to waste money developing it.
We have one drug. Period. Find out what else it does. Spray statins on it -- fine. But that's it. For God's sake let's not pretend we'd be good at further drug development.
The healthiest thing that can happen now is that all the saber rattling be put to the side, and that the new Board gives clear direction to management on strategy.
Karim is a greedy pig, but he may still be an effective CEO toward a buyout. We'll see.
He certainly is motivated now to get the stock up, given the absurd sized equity grants he just got at depressed prices.
I would expect the stock to sit in the low 2's for awhile.
Denner never fixed or sold anything overnight, and every situation has its unique challenges.
But at least I can relax now knowing that we finally won one -- and salvaged our only hope for redemption!
Now we have a chance for a reasonable outcome here
No guarantee -- but a fighting chance
Thank God! I love being wrong!
It looks like Sarissa is going to lose, from the trading action
Jesus
I think we would tank about 40% immediately and then struggle to stay above $1.
GIA = death. These guys are committed to GIA. They probably don't believe GIA = death, so you can't technically say they will bankrupt the company on purpose. It'll just look that way from the outside as they fritter all the money away on ill-advised "investments".
I don't know. I do know that in the big, big corporate world, they pretty much know proxy votes in advance because it's mostly institutional action, and there are advisors who get the vote decisions from the big holders -- so they can tabulate that in advance.
With the heavy retail holding here, they won't have similar polling available. I don't think the registrar will tell the company in advance, but I'm not sure.
OMG Amarin's latest PR an hour ago. They say:
It's his relationship with KM. He would feel he let KM down.
From his perspective he is doing "the right thing" by approving these gargantuan grants to KM, as compensation for the horrible wrong of having shareholders think they own the company.
Directors like PWO, who live on Mt Olympus and have no sensibility about the rights of average Joes, simply never consider the impact of their actions on shareholders. They live in a different world and have considerations exclusive to themselves.
The board can approve any equity awards they please as long as the equity incentive plan has adequate authorized shares to cover it (which the current plan does).
This isn't technically a legal issue -- it's a governance issue, which can be turned into a legal issue if a suit is brought against the board for dereliction of duties.
Common sense tells me that if you really are waiting to make awards until after you basically know how the vote went, then you are more likely to keep awards smaller if you stay in control, and more likely to make giant one-time pig grants if you are losing control.
But these things are impossible to 100% handicap.
The company will have, at a minimum, running institutional vote totals throughout the process.
I'm not sure whether they have access to total totals throughout, but there are services that just go and ask the institutions how they voted.
You and me both, my friend. You and me both.