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Are you really?
How is that dude doing?
Let's just type out the dream:
- BRAVE is a crazy success
- This thing gets hyped like crazy
- I sell out at $12
- It falls back to $7
- Denner gets it sold for $15
- I'm fine with that
Where's MRM? I want my projections!
Yes, the natural reaction is to expect to hear about BRAVE
When Eddingpharm hits $100 million in Chinese sales, I'll post a picture of my big ugly butt here.
Let's jump to the punchline on China: we will not be the first company ever that doesn't get robbed by these crooks.
They'll steal the IP and leave us with nothing.
Such a statement releases everyone to do tax selling and rebuying.
Expect the standard dip and mild recovery very late in the year.
Looks like an attempt to get on board the current craze in weight loss related drugs.
Vascepa isn't advertizing weight loss, but these are fat people in this subgroup.
The "German study" was just looking for correlations in an untreated population, yes?
Clinicaltrials.gov says it's Phase 2 and Phase 3, but it's designed and powered (with only 131 participants) like a Phase II study.
Like I said, anything is possible given the indication.
Phase II trials are generally not powered to show results with p-values at the traditionally stat sig level (p < .05, two-sided).
p < .10 is more common, as an example. The trials are intended to be hypothesis-generating, informing Phase III trials.
Phase I -- safety, largely
Phase II -- hypothesis generating
Phase III -- for approvals
Phase IV -- confirmatory, long-term safety or effectiveness
Of course, a blowout Phase II result in a high-impact indication like Alzheimers could lead to an accelerated approval, no doubt.
I love those posts. They're the only reason I still come here!
Well keep in mind size and p-value are correlated — you can have the same results with n=100 and n=1000 and p-values of .1 and .0001
I’d be ecstatic with $4 at this point
I don't care what the share price is now. There is no way it would be any higher if old management were still here. They were completely dedicated to lining their own pockets with all other considerations being footnotes.
I prefer new management by a mile. I don't regret my proxy vote one iota.
I second MRM's comment.
No one has been more faithful and more useful to this board, Captain -- and that, in the face of a torrent of nonsense.
Thanks for everything you do for us!
That's right. The market is valuing this thing at cash right now. Based on all available info, the market believes that future free cash flow is $0.
Are we sure the market is wrong?
No way to know
The trial is done according to public records
3 months to compile all the results? That would put it at the end of this year…
If the CVD patents are invalidated for obviousness, then there’s literally no valid patent left in the world.
If you’re long a huge pile at $1.25 and we’re looking for $2 and are sitting on $0.75? Maybe. That’s a trade.
Longs here are in a different position. Shorts aren’t keeping Germany and Italy from approving Vazkepa.
Our problem isn’t short sellers.
It’s eroding sales in the US with no meaningful progress abroad to date.
We don’t have technical problems. We have fundamental problems.
Hopefully today’s “rally” holds so we can get another “how many days of this pct” updates from MRM…
How do you like this island?
Happy now, MRM?
We're trading for cash now. Zero enterprise value attributed. That should be a floor. With past management it would not have been, because they would have seen cash as theirs, to transfer over time to their own pockets.
I'm thinking 75 cents might be a good entry point for a trade.
I expect HUNDREDS and HUNDREDS of dollars to start rolling in...
I would pee myself over $5.
Something borderline miraculous on ROW sales would have to happen to make my contention false.
Happy to be wrong about this.
The company is now a lottery ticket on the BRAVE trial.
Hi -- any chance someone could remind me what the bull case is here?
We shouldn't necessarily expect to see Brave results immediately just because the study end date came. It often takes several months of data analysis before they announce anything. My guess is that the under/over is the holiday season.
All the recent Alzheimers “miracle drugs” have gotten advanced on biomarkers, haven’t they?
The time to sell was in the first six weeks after the REDUCE-IT results came out.
When this thing hit a market cap of $7 billion, I should have thought, "The pie in the sky upside is a double, and there's no floor under this given GIA possibilities and the patent exposure."
It would have been way easier to get a double from there on tech stocks than to take that risk.
That DHA interferes with EPA was always an important explanatory conjecture.
It would be nice to have the method of interference spelled out.
I didn’t think that
I was thinking the under/over was about 2 years
It's something like 30 consecutive days below $1... and then you get some period of time to remedy that.
Things like Italy bad news aren't Denner actions -- they are runoffs from prior management.
This isn't an overnight thing. It takes time to turn the Queen Mary around.