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Hey JL, the stock keeps getting pounded.
Are people really taking seriously the stuff about Omega-3's doing nothing? Do people really think the components are the same basic things, like different colors of M&M's?
I feel pretty confident it will run higher than $4 pre-RI-results. I would guess more in the $5 to $6 range.
There is nothing wrong with Pyrr's runup strategy. Feels like almost free money from here.
Shorting after that? Feels awfully risky to me!
I still think they'll get bought
It'll be a big price
Let this serve as a warning to all of you!
If JL says it, that's the way it is!
Regards,
Tasty
AAPL went from about a buck (adjusted for splits) in 2003 to $174 currently. That's the same thing in terms of multiple. And that was only 15 years.
It happens. There are more examples. But it isn't happening here.
AMRN is essentially a one-trick pony, and there's only so much EPA to sell. $100 isn't impossible. But $1000 is.
By the way -- if R-IT is genuinely successful, this company is getting bought. Period. The chance they go it alone after a successful R-IT is negligible. Given the remaining time post-approval on the patents (realistically), value maximization is directly related to the speed of penetration. That means buyout.
You are absolutely right about that -- $1000 is just plain crazy.
JL must have been in an odd state of mind when he suggested that.
The others here -- myself included -- have done extensive analysis using a number of different theories (PE ratios, dividend discount models, fractal Monte Carlo simulations, tarot card readings, you name it), and NONE of those models yielded a $1000 price for AMRN.
There is NO WAY that this stock -- AMRN -- gets above $900 per share. I stake my reputation on that.
Delayed 10-K due early next week
It'll be interesting to see how they addressed the "going concern" issue in that filing.
They have to do a secondary offering soon... gotta believe it'll be bang-bang after the 10-K
You could be right -- but maybe not immediately after an R-I failure...
Welcome back
Essentially nothing has happened since you left
Go figure!
Waiting brings out the worst in us, doesn't it?
I get really angry about climate change. Because its proponents are so intolerable. So self-righteous. And so FOS.
Of course the only problem is that I have those same traits. Another inconvenient truth...
If R-I flat out fails... meaning primary endpoint RRR < 10%... then holding at $2 would be a miracle.
My guess would be a buck. It'd turn into a company that never turns a profit.
But of course that won't happen. The overall RRR will be 23.45%.
Looks to me like someone bought a great big-assed call spread -- buying the $4's and selling the 7's...
Net cost of around 50 cents a spread... worth $3 if the stock gets to $7 or higher...
(Or someone sold it... but that seems less likely)
We've been living in a police state since 2009.
It's hardly the first time, it's just the most ironic now.
In an age of great "tolerance", intolerance and impingement on privacy and freedom are at an apex.
Simplified math....
About 850k metric tons of fish oil are currently produced globally
You can extract something like 10% of that as purified EPA — call it 85,000 metric tons (85mm kg)
A Vascepa user takes 4g a day 365 days per year — that’s 1.46kg per year.
If literally all the world’s fish oil were diverted to Vascepa production, that would cover just 58mm patients.
But that’s absurd — hence JL’s contention about 10mm patients maxing the supply out.
But keep in mind... even with no price inflation, that’s $10’s of billions in prescription revenue.
It’s not a problem vis-a-vis the AMRN value proposition... it’s a different sort of problem. It’s more like the problem that every man wants to date a 10.
There aren't enough fish in the world to supply the EPA that would be needed if everyone who had trigs over 150 were prescribed Vascepa.
They'll barely have enough for the REDUCE-IT population if the trial is a big success.
I've done the math.
There are actually three geographical regions in this trial: "Westernized", Eastern Europe, and Asia-Pacific (they are listed in that protocol that was in the patent application).
The Westernized countries are: US, Canada, Netherlands, and South Africa (probably)
The Eastern European ones are: Romania, Poland, Russia, and the Ukraine
The Asia-Pacific ones are: Australia, India, New Zealand
My opinion about how they are distributed, of course. But you can check the three region thing yourself.
This is what it looks like on the Vascepa website:
Vascepa capsule
People have a funny attitude about taxpayer money
Most people think it just comes from nowhere, literally -- like it was dropped here from outer space
They don't have a sense that when they take advantage of the system, it's coming out of their neighbors' pockets
I do not exempt myself from this accusation, by the way. Since no one is ever there to directly confront anyone, you just don't feel the issue.
It's a corollary to the great truth that the property of everyone is the concern of no one.
In honor of National Triglycerides Day:
Which one is lighter?
No way! How do you know?
My family has been celebrating National Triglycerides Day for generations.
It always starts by the oldest male child in the family chugging an entire bottle of corn oil. Then we make pancakes drenched in maple syrup, and have a speed eating contest. (There is no prize for the winner -- the contest is an end in itself!)
Then the HFCS ritual begins -- each person must name an item in the pantry that contains high fructose corn syrup, and the first person who cannot name a new item has to cover their head in molasses. A down pillow is then torn open and emptied on them.
Finally, the family loads into multiple cars, and we spend the late morning into the afternoon at MacDonalds, with a goal of eating a supersized version of every combo meal on the menu.
It's my favorite day of the year, truth be known.
MRM -- the trial doesn't fail at those RRR levels. It's not particularly impressive at those levels, but the trial will technically be successful.
Hey Dogskin...
Have you done any kind of "how much money is left" analysis?
I tried to do this the other day, but couldn't get quite precise.
They had a decent chunk of money left at the end of Q3 2017 before they began the big pump in earnest ($14.something million, I think).... and then:
- They raised about $37 million in that private placement, but they spent...
- $9.6mm on the special dividend to the original pump team
- $3mm on the original Coinsquare investment
- $4mm on the follow-up Coinsquare investment
- $5+mm on the bitcoin auction (but they did get 500 BTC if they don't lose the flash drive or whatever)
- $8.5mm and then $11mm buying mining equipment at 5x the normal cost ($1.5mm of first buy in escrow)
- $4mm on that ridiculous consulting contract (up-front)
- Whatever they agreed to to buy their buddy's brokerage firm in Florida
In addition, they have salaries and other costs to pay, and it looks like they've committed to something ludicrous like $500k a month on the property in Oklahoma for mining. The total of the crap above is about $45mm... If we're generous and say they had $51mm, they'd still only have around $6mm left.
Feels like that means they NEED to get another PIPE done, but that might be hard to do when you have the SEC three-quarters of the way up your digestive tract...
The 10-K is due by Good Friday
That should be an interesting read
If it arrives at all
I guess we should expect to see an NT 10-K soon...
(Notice of delay in filing 10-K)
It's hard to complete these forms when no reputable auditor will sign off on it.
I'm definitely clicking the "follow" button!!!
Put me in for 80%, thanks
Anyone with any experience following these things shouldn't be higher
If they were testing to see if people were better off with air rather than no air, and the trial had a global population, I'd be at about 80%.
Also, I'm getting a little confused here
Why are you calling me JL?
I mean... I'm flattered, of course
Or is this some sort of doppelganger accusation?
I predicted 23.45%
But it could be as low as 23.4%, or even as high as 23.5%
It's more of an art than a science, predicting these things...
MMS -- assuming the pattern on the last interim is indicative, it seems to me that there is practically free money in simply buying the common here and selling on June 30.
Whoever wants to take a big bet on results here needs to get their money down before Q3. So there is very likely to be a surge into the last half of June.
If you were REALLY clever you could wait a couple months and then load up on options that expire end of June, or maybe a bit into July.
BOOM! That resonates.
One time a couple years ago by chance I plunked down at an Irish pub next to this goofy dude who turned out to be the head of cardiovascular something or other at a big regional hospital.
Because of my AMRN involvement, I think, I asked him -- "Doc, what would you say are the three biggest factors in cardiovascular health?"
He said -- number one by far is stress. Second is exercise -- people who exercise regularly are insulated against damage from both one and three. And a distant third was diet.
I have a horrible diet, but my blood numbers have always been good (like a man 20 years younger than me) because I still run -- I shoot for one marathon a year at least (I'm slow now, but whatever.)
If I didn't do that, then I'd have to get serious about diet. And one other thing I can corroborate is this: carbs make you fat, not the other stuff. I lost 20 pounds in three weeks once on the Adkins diet, and I ate (and drank) like a pig the whole time.
Eating fats doesn't make you fat, any more than eating chocolate makes you a big chocolate Easter Bunny. Carbs make you fat, unless you burn them off regularly!!!
Don't worry, RIOT has a bright future!
Sure, they did a huge dilutive raise, the mastermind behind it sold out at the top, and they're disbursing all the cash in absurdly overpriced deals with related parties.
But it is POSSIBLE that management isn't technically guilty of an enforceable crime.
And that's what you're looking for in a speculative investment -- plausible deniability for crooked management.
Go RIOT!
Been there, done that. It sux sux SUX.
Here is a link to a summary of the events that would require an 8-k filing:
8-k rules
Note that the commencement of an SEC investigation is not explicitly on that list.
It's up to the judgment of management whether an investigation would be "material" to the company, and therefore requiring an 8-k filing.
There has never been a management team with worse judgment, of course. So nothing can be concluded here regarding whether the SEC has commenced an investigation.
I will say this, though -- the company has burnt through most of the dough they raised in December with all these bogus deals, and this pump is obviously getting long in the teeth. Another offering would make a ton of sense here (and probably explains why HokieHead has been working overtime here carpet bombing this board with misdirection).
Regardless of whether you file the 8-k, you can't do an offering when there's an investigation going. That would be instant jail stuff.
So the longer we go without news or an offering -- the more likely it is that the SEC is in there.
Thanks for the musings JL
I'm here for the wager, of course. But that doesn't mean I don't care about the potential benefits.
It would be really neat to have had such a good seat for a transformational event like that.
So I hope you're right.
And if you are... about that... the answer to my question would clearly be "A Lot". More than matters, for me at least.
Hey JL -- you've probably posted something on this... but I can't remember.
What do you think this stock will be worth if REDUCE-IT delivers the results that you expect?
If Jardiance is only given for diabetes, and it is not anti-inflammatory in its mode of operation -- then why are we obsessing about it?
If Vascepa has genuine efficacy, is this going to make THAT BIG of a difference?
AVII -- in a situation like this one, where CV deaths is so clearly the "centerpiece" secondary endpoint, and where demonstration of a significant benefit has an order of magnitude impact on perceptions of the drug, is it possible that an interim determination effectively becomes a determination on that single endpoint?
(Assuming, of course, that you were already massively stat sig on the primary endpoint, which you would be if the CV deaths endpoint were in play at all...)
Well, it's important to have someone loyal.
And I don't think we need to worry here. Pretty much the last thing he did as an "analyst" was pump Barry Honig's stock, Pershing Gold.
He is the RIGHT GUY for the job at RIOT!!!