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CTIC/Dew
I'd love to know your current thoughts on CTIC, Dew. Looks like a screaming short to me at the moment. Any opinion on that?
Thanks,
MM
VNDA/Dew
Do you have any thoughts on VNDA following its huge recent run-up, Dew? Possibly a good short at these levels?
TIA
MM
SCTY/Hweb
Thanks, Hweb. Yes, shorted a pretty solid stake and still have most of it. The amazing thing here is that the two huge catalysts (massive unlock and pending Copperfield hit piece) haven't even happened yet. By Tuesday both will have happened (if you believe Copperfield's latest update that they will publish before unlock on Tuesday, which personally I do given their awesome track record) and I plan to cover on Tuesday regardless of the price. I woulldn't be surprised to see the stock hit 30ish..but will happily cover 32-33 on Tuesday if that's where it's trading early in the day as this is a catalyst-driven play and the easy play will be over then imho.
MM
SCTY short
SCTY is a tremendous short here imho. Borrow is pretty tight- so I'm doing it via June 45 and 50 calls. It's running partly on Elon Musk mania, partly on sector mania, partly on short covering.. essentially a perfect storm of mania and it's not going to end well inho. The stock is wildly overvalued (there's a reason it IPOd at $8, but that's not primarily why I'm shorting it. What I like is that it's extremely overbought, with a couple of immediate catalyst that could really nail it. First, there's a massive unlock right around the corner (about 62 million shares to be unlocked with a cost basis of 8!), and Copperfield Research (which totally massacred EBIX, CALL and OCZ when they came out with hit pieces on them over the last few years...they do great work and historically they have moved markets tremendously) has telegraphed that they will be coming out with a major hit piece on SCTY this week (but the telegraphed article wasn't on Yahoo- so it's off the radar). I think that a gap fill down to 45 is EXTREMELY likely here between now and unlock on June 10th. And I think that there's a very good chance of at least testing support in the 39ish range.
These links provide some nice background on the idea
http://blogs.wsj.com/corporate-intelligence/2013/05/20/the-solar-story-becoming-a-solar-bubble/
https://raymondjames.bluematrix.com/docs/pdf/d6c50658-dc52-4fc9-aaea-38c7bb1ddc6b.pdf
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/890075-copperfield-research/1869361-solarcity-scty-partying-like-its-1999
RPRX/Dew
Dew, would you please share your view on RPRX's most recently released data and your current view of the stock? I know that you've been skeptical of the company in the past. Do you see it as a short here?
TIA
MM
SSW/Direxion
Do you own and/or like SSW here, Direxion? TIA
MM
CNTF
I'm not Researcher, but I doubt it
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=63934648
Low short interest is comforting too, as you said.
CNTF/Wade
I doubt it, personally, and I'm a buyer here in the 4.30 range (will add if it cracks 4 most likely). I think that what we're seeing is more likely a result of IB making the stock unmarginable today..combined with tremendous selling all over the sector. if it was just CNTF getting crushed, I'd agree with you.but that's not the case.
MM
CCME/CSP
Hey CSP. Just wondering- did you add to your starter here? Still like the prospects for a big bounce? TIA
MM
CFSG
Read it. thanks. but actually it's not that skeptical in that, overall, he seems to believe that the deal WILL happen (which is more than many can say)
VRA/Researcher
Ya, exactly- I'm working on the assumption that this placement will accomodate most of the insiders who wanted out. I could be wrong about that to some degree, but at the least this trade has become much harder than I would have liked because of the placement.
MM
VRA/KIK
With respect to the S1, I appreciate the kudos but actually think that it's extremely bad news for the short. I have no idea how I missed this news on Friday night. Had I seen it I would have covered the short in the 40 range.
the catalyst here was the big pending unlock, but that catalyst has been largely removed now that the company has announced an orderly placement of a large number of IPO shares rather than the disorderly selling on the open market that I was looking for (as happened with MOTR, TSLA, BSFT etc). I still think that VRA is a very expensive stock but without the unlock catalyst I no longer think it's a top notch short and will be looking to cover what I've shorted so far on weakness, and likely won't be adding to the short unless it makes a truly huge move from here.
MM
HEAT
Anyone considering buying HEAT here? Looks oversold even by china microcap standards to me (which is really saying something. lol). and hasn't been the subject of any hit pieces as far as I know. On the other hand, seems to be trading at around 4 times 2011 guidance..which isn't that cheap for a china microcap these days....
MM
VRA short
--
I’m building a short position in VRA here, ahead of a big April 19 unlock (of approximately 29.5 million shares). VRA is an expensive stock imho, but the reason for my short here is the unlock catalyst. As with BSFT, I’d likely look to cover early on the 19th (and would cover some or all a bit earlier than that if it totally craters as BSFT did)
Here are Barrons comments from March 19 after earnings
AS BRANDS BELOVED by Japanese shoppers shuddered, Tiffany (TIF) and Coach (COH) each lost nearly a tenth of their market value within days. Vera Bradley (VRA) has no such problems. The Fort Wayne, Ind., company makes the kind of floral- and paisley-splattered bags favored by Grandma (even though its ads show nubile young things prancing about with its totes), and hasn't yet attracted much of a Japanese following. Its shares soared to a new high above 38, and have more than doubled since their October debut.
There was some good news, of course, and quite a bit of short-covering after the company reported fourth-quarter earnings last week. While taxes dragged profit down 18%, revenue grew 29%. Direct sales jumped 61% as it opened new stores, and investors cheered plans to launch 14 to 16 more in 2012.
Growth comes easily for Vera Bradley, given the small base it's starting from. But the torrid pace increasingly is factored into the stock, which now commands a 34 times projected 2011 profit—double the multiple for the more illustrious Tiffany or Coach, or the apparel and accessories sector.
Vera Bradley also has more debt than many peers, and none of the profit margins sported by Coach (21%) or Tiffany (11%). As a producer of cotton bags made in China, it faces the twin challenges of pricier cotton and escalating Chinese wages. With shares fetching 28 times book value, a smarter shopper would look elsewhere, especially when better quality is available for a discount.
Out BSFT
Covered 42.50.
MM
BSFT/nsomnmiyak
I'd just prefer to err cautious and get out early, particularly if it gaps down (but probably even if it doesn't). because on occasion these unlock plays can get crowded..with a lot of the overhang priced in by the day before the actual shares hit the market. And sometimes the result of this is a squeeze on the actual unlock day. That doesn't always happen, but I'm not interested in risking it- so I just want to see how hard they can gap it down and then cover fairly close to open.
MM
BSFT
Hey guys. ya, Researcher is right that I was way too conservative with my cover target. Started to get that feeling this morning and pulled my covers. While I'm very happy with a mid 45s cover (this is a relatively big position for me, around 2%- so $6.50ish per share represents significant profits here) I suspect that we may be able to do better,,, as the real catalyst- the unlock of roughly 13.5 million shares with an average cost basis in the $15 range- hasn't even happened yet. But I'll be out Friday morning, even if it's higher than these levels (doubtful imho...but regardless of where it is, Friday morning is my exit)
MM
BSFT/Researcher
Thanks Researcher. the unlock here is actually even bigger than I realized- around 13.5 million shares total
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_B/threadview?m=te&bn=110127&tid=1303&mid=1303&tof=1&frt=2#1303
I have a large position here as mentioned. Looking to cover some around the 47.60ish gap fill level and would be happy with 45ish for all out I think (though I'd want to hold at least some shares for Friday morning to see just how much dumping we get here on "d day")
MM
BSFT/Researcher
Thanks for your input, Researcher (always very respected and appreciated). Good point on volume Friday..but I note that motley fool thought that some of the volume spike had to do with a sector-note (http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/03/18/broadsoft-shares-popped-what-you-need-to-know.aspx ). That could be so..but in any event I think that volume spiked big on the new 52 week high..and, in general, BSFT really isn't that liquid. Probably not liquid enough to hold up well against aggressive dumping by even 1/3 or 1/4 of the 12 millionish shares coming unlocked on Friday. Of course, I could be wrong and maybe we won't see that sort of selling..but I'm wagering that we will. If I were holding those cheap shares I'd be EXTREMELY eager to book windfall profits and I'm thinking that a lot of those holders are likely to see it the same way. the IPO investors in particular sitting on a 6.5 bagger with this extremely expensive stock must feel like their profits are burning a hole in their pockets I'd imagine.
short BSFT
Hey guys. FWIW, I'm shorting BSFT today (basis around 52). Adding a block for every $2 up, and will cover next Friday (unlock day) or 47.60ish gap fill, whichever comes first.
Here's my rationale
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_B/threadview?m=te&bn=110127&tid=1278&mid=1278&tof=5&frt=2
MM
CCME/KIK
With all due respect, CCME is hardly in the clear. they might very well not be a fraud but there's no doubt some non-negligible chance that they are. My personal opinion is that holding a very large position in this stock at this point is borderline suicidal. There are tons of other stocks out there without nearly the elevated fraud risk of CCME. just my .02.... but I literally could not believe how many otherwise sharp investors held massive positions here. There's just no reason to do that imho. This stock isn't even THAT cheap in my view, even assuming it's totally legit.
As for KIK, I feel compelled to say that yes, he is extremely sharp. I happen to agree with him that risk/reward on CCME is unappealing at these levels but, even if I didn't, I would never question his talents.
MM
Citron out negative on CCME
(this is only part 1..part two is apparently forthcoming)
http://www.citronresearch.com/index.php/2011/01/30/citron-research-reports-on-china-media-express-nasdaqccme/
OT- AAPL/Rames
Where did you buy those calls, Rames? On the German exchange? (I ask becaues I've never done that...and this seems to be a possible learning moment for me)
Out for the rest of the day, but thanks in advance.
MM
FFHL/Navellier
<FFHL my stock quietly making new highs. Definitely not a buy here. >
strongly agree that it's not a buy here. I actually think it's a pretty good short, as it's only up so much lately because of a HUGE pump by Louis Navellier..and the effect of his pumps almost never lasts long.
MM
SHZ/Rato
Do you really think that SHZ's valuation is THAT crazy, Rato? No doubt the run today was silly as it's not a rare earth play. But the company gave the following guidance
<For the year to end December 31, 2011, net revenues are expected to approximate $38.0 million, a 164% increase compared with the 2010 estimated net revenues of $14.5 million. All this anticipated growth is organic from the current product portfolio. Net income for the 2011 year is estimated to reach approximately $11.0 million.>
Per the S3, they have 28 million O/S now….presumably to go to 31milionish after the financing I assume is pending. So I guess that projects net income of around .37ish for 2011. So about a 20 forward PE at 7.40..with very strong year over year growth. Not cheap certainly...but not sure I'd compare it to YOKU and DANG in terms of valuation? Am I missing something? TIA
MM
CBPO short-
I shorted CBPO at 16.80-16.90 into close. seems like a pretty clear short to me, but definitely open to other views here.
With today's S3 filing, now we have some very nice overhang here for such a thin stock. Makes me really like this short now, especially given the huge run the stock has made recently (virtually straight up from 11.40 to 17.13)
<CHINA BIOLOGIC PRODUCTS, INC.
1,353,047 Shares of Common Stock
This prospectus relates to the resale of up to 1,353,047 shares of our common stock being offered by the selling stockholders, which includes:
• 700,000 shares of Common Stock issued to the selling stockholders named in this prospectus;
• 126,569 shares of Common Stock issuable to the selling stockholders named in this prospectus upon conversion of 3.8% secured convertible notes issued in the June 2009 private placement to certain accredited investors; and
• 526,478 shares of common stock issuable upon the exercise of three-year warrants owned by the selling stockholders named in this prospectus.
http://secfilings.com/searchresultswide....>
TCCO was pumped
sorry, folks- would have posted this earlier but I'm on vacation. I'm fairly sure that at least the vast majority of TCCO's huge move today was because of this pump by Superman (who has a large following)
http://www.thelion.com/bin/forum.cgi?sf=TCCO&msg=119&cmd=r&t=
TCCO was pumped
sorry, folks- would have posted this earlier but I'm on vacation. I'm fairly sure that at least the vast majority of TCCO's huge move today was because of this pump by Superman (who has a large following)
http://www.thelion.com/bin/forum.cgi?sf=TCCO&msg=119&cmd=r&t=
TCCO was pumped
sorry, folks- would have posted this earlier but I'm on vacation. I'm fairly sure that at least the vast majority of TCCO's huge move today was because of this pump by Superman (who has a large following)
http://www.thelion.com/bin/forum.cgi?sf=TCCO&msg=119&cmd=r&t=
TCCO was pumped
sorry, folks- would have posted this earlier but I'm on vacation. I'm fairly sure that at least the vast majority of TCCO's huge move today was because of this pump by Superman (who has a large following)
http://www.thelion.com/bin/forum.cgi?sf=TCCO&msg=119&cmd=r&t=
ARIA/Dewdiligence
Just curious to know if you have any opinion on ARIA from these levels, Dew?
MM
HSU/SCOK
He's talking about SCOK here. But I wouldn't buy expecting a HSU pop. Because that pop already happened when he pumped it hard to subscribers on August 20th.
MM
More MNTA rumors..
Just posting this so that everyone knows why MNTA took a hit today.
---
11:02 MNTA Momenta Pharma: Hearing chatter that courts are denying MNTA motion for generic copaxon; this could also be helping TEVA this morning (14.14 -0.55)
MNTA Valuation
Apologies if anyone has already posted this work, but I'd love to hear any thoughts on "worst reasonable case" MNTA valuation assuming that TEVA gets approval (which the market seems to be at least partly pricing in here, regardless of whether or not that really makes sense).
I'm trying to assess whether MTNA is cheap here even assuming every possible negative (with TEVA getting approval being a big one). I suspecct that it is, but would appreciate input on that.
MM
ETM/Nelson
What a beating here. This one is interesting to me now for a bounce because the stock is very oversold and very cheap based on analyst estimates... but I don't know if those estimates are even close to accurate
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=ETM+Analyst+Estimates
Do you still follow this one, Nelson? (I know you played it quickly for a profitable trade and follow the sector closely). Anyone else have any thoughts?
TIA
MM
Ty, Dew.
How would you personally assess the risks heading into tomorrow? Do you consider the likelihood of a bad outcome to be relatively low? And any feel for how much it would hurt if the citizens petition were to be approved?
I'm just generally trying to assess downside risk heading into tomorrow and how hard the stock is likely to get hit if those risks were to materialize... and all opinions/WAGs are very appreciated.
MM
RBC out with negative comments on MNTA
RBC's comments below were forwarded to me (haven't confirmed that RBC said this, but the source is reliable- so I assume that the excerpt is accurate). Any comments on their comments very appreciated. TIA
MNTA negative:
TEVA, Sanofi court documents making us confident that a generic Copaxone is unlikely -- RBC
KRO a short?
Very tough borrow here (very thin stock), but I'm wondering if KRO is a short after a massive run. They had a huge beat but annualizing their huge Q2 gets them to around $1.60 in EPS for the year...and they're trading for around 23 times that level. Is anyone familiar with the company and/or have a feel for what a reasonable multiple might be here? All thoughts appreciated.
MM
MNTA- valuation ranges
Apologies if you've already posted on this point, Dew, but I'm wondering what you see as a "worst case" fair value for MNTA?
I see where you previously posted this
<Combining the Lovenox and non-Lovenox components of MNTA’s value calculated above yields a per-share NPV range of $55-87. In summary, $55-87 is my estimate for MNTA’s fair value if the FDA approves the generic-Lovenox application from MNTA/NVS and does not approve the applications from Teva or Amphastar. >
Now let's say that TEVA's application is approved. I'd love to hear your valuation estimates (low and high end) in that scenario. Would you still consider MNTA to be extremely cheap in that scenario?
How about if AG also launched an authorized generic?
TIA
CFSG/CSP
Any thoughts on CFSG here? it looks beaten up and very cheap to me even compared to most other small cap china stocks (which is really saying something).
I remember that CSP used to really like this one (he traded it for nice profits as I recall). Does anyone know what happened to him?
MM