There goes the double bottom hypothesis. Trend down continues with another gap down. Uranium is just dirt. Looks like crude is taking the entire energy sector down. Till a base in built, I think it is best to stay out of URA. Seems to me that a bottom is near, but that is what I thought yesterday. About to throw this out from my watchlist.

Best hope for the bulls is a possible double bottom at 13.22 today with a marginal lower low. Double bottom target around 14.80. 13.65 & 13.90 resistance have to be overcome first. Trend is solidly down. October high of 16.18 appears far, far away.

Let us hope that URA does not gravitate back to $7 level after the reverse split. :)

Fresh new lows all around with DNN leading the pack. The forest fire could affect CCJ's Q3 earnings - tough situation when earnings growth is lacking in the whole sector. CCJ reports for Q2 this Thursday (July 30).

Speculative long term "investment" at best at this point. I suspect a long period of basing while the fundamentals change for the better. Playing for a bounce may not be very prudent, as the trend is downwards.

Feel free to discuss any component of URA. I think a buyable bottom is not too far off, as Japan is beginning to turn on plants and India seems to be buying a lot too. I trade only indices, except select commodities (grains), but others may be interested in individual names.

Consolidation is inevitable in this illiquid, secretive market.

Spot prices are steadily eroding (36.25 now). Till this bottoms, all associated stocks will be under pressure. But URA is losing like 1 to 2% every single day - this means that there is serious selling pressure in all the underlying stocks. Short sellers are having a good time, for now. I am sure the Uranium buyers are locking in low prices. So a rise in U308 spot may not immediately translate to higher stock prices for the miners. (Reverse of the $50 contracts being filled now). Lots of overhead resistance as well as investors bail at cost if and when prices rise.

After a brief deadcat bounce, the downtrend has resumed to close the week at a new low. No sign of strength whatsoever. Dropping this one from my watchlist till there is some sign of a trend change.

Yes, Uranerz was a holding (Abt $8million worth per last annual report). So one of them has to be converted Uranerz shares.

Falling knife. I thought it will start building a base around 9.20 (6/19 high volume low), where my stops were. No way to call a bottom till there is some sign of strength. Cannot even make a higher high intraday. CCJ down big today, making a new yearly low. Not helping URA much. Waiting for a close above 5DMA - which is at the 9.20 level as of yesterday's close. Large bids at 8.60 probably fake ones to encourage the little people to buy. Or ould well be a bottom of some kind. Dead money for now.

The fund seems to be reducing UEC holdings, which is a good thing in the long run. URA has lost the $9.00 level. CCJ is approaching its year low. Hopefully there is support for CCJ at 13.50. URA 5 day average has been stiff resistance since May. Has to close above 9.50 on a sustained basis for this MA to turn up. 4% yield does not mean much when the equity loses 2 to 3% every single day.

Post-Pukushima bear market continues, with holdings in small companies like UEC causing periodic elevator ride down. Uranium pricing and demand picture are shrouded in secrecy so any kind of fundamental analysis is impossible for retail investors. Hopefully the usual last quarter rally is robust this year. Demand should come from Asia. If Japan restarts some plants, it may change the psychology a bit. Chart-wise this looks like a nuclear disaster. Brief foray above 200MA average evaporated quickly and $10 which provided a floor in the first few months of this year has been broken, with every intraday rally being sold into.

Back at the lows, which was expected. If this trades consistently below the lows in the coming days, may have to wait for some sign of strength. Totally absent right now. No floor so far. Had to liquidate the speculative buy aka catching the falling knife.

Probably. Trap door sprung, stops cleared out and also likely filled some large orders in the sub 9.60 price levels. It was worth taking a speculative position. The high volume low bar is likely to get tested again. If it holds, we may have seen a low. Of course it depends on what the spot price do as well as the dollar.

Measured move target reached. May be some sign of support now? Unless there is going to be zero demand for uranium oxide.

Relentless downtrend
Looks like it is heading towards 9.65 or so. Thinking of a long term position, if it bases there. Till CCJ et al stop the slide, it seems, money is flowing out of URA. Cannot see any kind of support.

As a daytrader, daily charts are very long term charts for me only for background work. I only look at price levels and swings. The price I stated was simple arithmetic - no chart needed. The numbers I came up with was approximate from eyeballing the chart. (I do not trade SPY). From the spreadsheet numbers, I have the target of 85.90 - 87.40

If this level is breached (perhaps after the obligatory oversold rally, if any), then the next level points to: 73.10-75.40

These numbers are derived simply by deriving the distance from
108.70 (the mid point of the Monday gap) to previous swing highs and subtracting that from the fulcrum point. One number is from the HOD of the swing high. The other from the close.

KISS methodology.

May have to deal with circuit breakers tripping today and perhaps exchanges closed... Be careful out there.

Assuming the Monday's gap and subsequent acceleration down points to a mid point measuring gap, I get the first target of 90-91 level for SPY. Whether it will be a lasting bottom, if reached, remains to be seen. Possibly break the round number by a few ticks....

JLS: Thanks
for the offer. I don't think I need much help on drawing lines using a mouse. Somehow I not only managed to develop my own trading platform, but trust it enough to trade 10 lots every day with it. Discarded eSignal, Tradestation, CQG etc. long ago. Y'all have fun.

Geo

Ask away?
Highly unlikely. Based on your answer numbered 1, I realize I don't know how to ask questions. All the best.

Geo

TREND1, Rules
Perhaps you misunderstood my question. I was wondering how you draw the actual trendlines and rules for same, if any. Rules for the "trendlines trading system" are too advanced for me to comprehend now. VTI is some sort of an index, I presume. I will look it up. Thanks.

Geo

Aire88bro, It all depends on your trading time frame, risk profile and objectives. In the index futures, I only trade YM, but I am strictly a daytrader and do not know enough to make suggestions on holding positions. Probable close on the high of the day today. Personally I would close my position no later than 3:52 and be thankful for the windfall. 12600-12700 area has had sellers come in. Watch for signs of fading tomorrow, if there is follow through. The market could retrace most, if not all, of today's gain in a day or two, especially if 12500-12490 gives way. FWIW.

Geo

DowDeva, I was only kidding about market vs arjunah comment. I am in total awe of analysts including Hurstistas who can tell what the market is going to do. YM 12600 region has been the killing fields. Let us see if the sellers turn up to start the market in arjunah's path again.

Geo

DowDeva - thanks.
I am not doing any kind of Hurst study or any other study for that matter. Only days I count are trading days left, which are darned few. I am wasting most of them this year and all this nice volatility and range. Might return to trading late in the year.

I was curious about arjunah's visualization of the cyclic picture. When arjunah makes a downside projection, the next day market blasts off. If only for a day or two.

I shall study your chart. Thanks again.

Geo

Trendline rules?
Do you have any rules for drawing the trendlines? e.g. do you draw the line when the first lower high or higher low is made, giving you two touch points? Etc.

Geo

arjunah, Can you post a chart or two, if possible? It may help the cyclically challenged trader-wannabes like myself. TIA.

Geo

Not hard to imagine Aire chatting up cycles with JM Hurst with Baron at his feet... Here is his pic with one of his characteristic posts ... alas the last one.

Geo



Robert Chonski 1953-2008

Thanks for the picture, Ted & Chuck.

Geo

Ted, I grieved with him when Barron was gone. He was a tower of strength for me, when I lost one of my own canine kids. He started with

"it will be tough, but treat her as if she's still in perfect health. she'll sense that her family is well, and she will feel well. then it's time time to help her on her way. she needs you to perform the hardest act of love there is, helping her pass and relieve her suffering. - regards - Bob".

And when the end came, he consoled me with "Geo, i'm sorry for your loss. you made the right decision. had Mindee been a wild creature nature would have provided a cruel resolution. you provided a painless exit for her. never doubt that.

aire/bob"

He was a scholar and a gentleman. I am certain he still is wherever he is. The cycle shall continue for him. My best to you and your family & friends.

Geo

http://www.cmegroup.com/

is the current site for delayed quotes and data.

arjunah, rest assured that despite message #30453, it remains a secret.

Geo

I agree. Both Airedale & Arjunah are scholars and gentlemen. JM Hurst would have approved because he was a scholar and gentleman too, according to anecdotes.

Typical message board behavior is for airedale to snarl and growl, with Arjunah saying "nice doggie", as he loads the arrow onto his bow.

Geo

Take a look at this one for starters.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=msummary&cmd=show,iday[Y]&disp=SXA

Bullish Percent Indices

Geo

Arjunah, Excellent call. I was expecting 12320 (Basis YM Mar08) which it got to today. From here, I am in the "buy breaks" mode switching from sell rallies mode in my day trading. Hopefully your right translation idea will materialize for some profits on the long side, even though short sales usually provide gains quicker.

I don't quite understand what phasing means, (I think Airedale explained it. Still hazy about it). However it appears that following Hurst methods, two analysts can come to different conclusions from the same data set.

Thanks for sharing your work. Is 9M same as 40 Week, or does it have a cyclicality of its own?

Geo

Where did you dig this up? Looks awfully like one of my charts - looking at the not-so-good choice of colors ...

Geo

Aire, YM already at 12440 in the overnight session. Not much further down, I think, but taking a counter-trend trade here sounds awfully risky. Perhaps the cyclic picture gives you confidence in the trade. But the consolidation at 12600 was price acceptance so risk very high on the long side. I don't see rejection of any lows so far. If 12440 does not hold, may be another measured move to 12380 to find some buyers.

Geo

Airedale, One Way is still staying short - even in intraday time frames. If the 12550 low breaks, another 100 points down can come quickly (12440). With 81' bars, YM needs a close above 12833 to generate a preliminary buy signal. Heavy, 'sell rallies' kind of market, it appears.

Geo

Airedale, thanks. On the envelope system, I see the A/D divergence, but the 5% break seems to have a history of sustained downward price moves, while the internals improve. One Way is still staying put on the short side. Yesterday's action is the first glimpse of a retracement (probably of short covering variety) and eventually a preliminary buy signal. Actual buy signal is a long way off at this point.

Geo

Arjunah, Thank you. Definitely could have something to do with that. Cycles are a complete mystery to me. I shall leave cyclic interpretation to specialists like yourself and Airedale. However I was just trying to find out if the envelope system had anything specific about the 5% levels.

Geo