A $.06 trade for 100 shares. Does anyone doubt that manipulation is occurring??

Not good news for ethanol producers, translates to lower ethanol price received.

Anecdotally GERS has 4 patents that are totally relevant and pertinent to the case in front of the judge.

"858" patent: (entitled) Method of Processing Ethanol Byproducts and Related Subsystems.

516 patent: (entitled) Method of Processing Ethanol Byproducts and Related Subsystems.

517 patent: (entitled) Method of Recovering Oil from Thin Stillage.

484 patent: (entitled) Method of Processing Ethanol Byproducts and Related Subsystems.

ICM's single patent is for during the process of using GERS methods patents to add ethanol to the stillage for the purpose of increasing the oil yield by the means of a chemical additive.

Hardly industry standard.

How could PEIX buy GERS in a heartbeat with less than $7 million in cash?? Not a chance.

What fools would an entity be to contract shipping on a per day basis? Typical of those losing the argument to resort to name calling.

As I said before grain is shipped on a metric ton basis and the rate from the gulf to Japan is $50/Mt. which I think would be a similar cost as Argentina to California. That translates to $1.25/by. I am just trying to keep the cheerleaders honest and the rest of the longs realistic and informed.

Always a possibility but not likely as seed is also produced in SA.

A company that would pay shipping costs on a per day rate would be a foolish company to own. No way I would contract for shipping other than on a known cost basis. No reason to do the calculations because that method is simply not how anyone contracts shipping of grains.

The shipping rates from the Pacific northwest to Japan is $28.00/metric ton. A metric ton is 40 bushels, so the cost is $.70/bu. The rate from the gulf to Japan is $50/mt. That makes the cost $1.25/bushel, which I would suggest is much closer to the cost of shipping from Argentina to California, since I doubt they go around the horn to get to the Pacific.

You are entitled to your own vision, however blurred it is.

I was referring to shipping grain from the Midwest to California, and you knew that.

Isn't that part of the cost of the grain then?? Let's be honest in what the actual cost of the grain is. It is not the $5.40/bushel that you want to demonstrate, but rather much closer to the $7.64/bushel that is reported by the California USDA.

I made no promise to never post again. When misinformation is being posted as truth, someone needs to post the honest numbers. Those you rely on for information are posting misleading information. The average basis for corn in Iowa is +$1.24 as stated by the USDA.


Deal with it.

According to the California cash grain report dated Aug. 15th the cash grain sorghum price is $13.65/cwt. That translates to $7.64/bu. equivalent. No way you can ship grain from Argentina for $.40/bushel. It costs over a dollar from the Midwest. Cash grain price in Iowa for corn is +$1.24 above the September corn contract in Chicago.

Crop update: It's looking like the current weather of above normal temperatures will help the maturity along on the late planted corn and may take the risk out of the market of an early frost on the crop. The bad news is that the forecast has very little if no rain for the next 2 to 3 weeks and with elevated temperatures the dry weather stress could reach severe levels on some areas that have been receiving less than normal rains since June. The markets are starting to take notice to the dry weather.

There was about 2 million more shares added than what was announced, so don't tell me it has been priced into the current share price, it hasn't as today's trading is indicating.

As far as my credibility, I have a lot more than those that were predicting PEIX would make $.30/share or more profit Q2, they barely made money at all.

Good luck, you're going to need it.

I gave you 3 weeks, but thought it needed to be pointed out today the amount of dilution that has occurred with PEIX like I had pointed out before, but was made fun of for saying it would occur or was occurring at the time. A 30% increase in shares could easily translate into a share price devaluation of 30% or over a $1.00/share. Not good news for longs. Wondered how they paid down the debt, now we know, the longs got suckered.

Good luck

The end of the world?? Your guess is as good as mine, I'm just stating the truth when it comes to PEIX shares outstanding. The corn crop is factual as well as the laws of nature cannot be changed. Corn takes heat units to reach maturity around 1100 to 1200 after it is fully tasseled and with average temperatures it will take @60 days to get there,(20 heat units/day). The early corn tasseled around the 1st of August and the later plantings are just now starting to tassel, so they will reach full tassel in about a week. Last I checked the calendar puts maturity 60 days from then as the middle of October. Average frost date for northern Iowa the first of October. If we are lucky the killing frost will be later than the average like it was in 2009.

I see that PEIX has added quite a lot of shares with the latest quarterly report. They now have 14,194,925 outstanding shares as of August 2, 2013 more than 3 million shares or 30% since the R/S.
Guessing that GoGreen will be in the money after this news gets around.

Corn crop update. The early planted corn (May 11-14) needs a frost date of no sooner than the last week of September to reach maturity. The late corn, (planted after June 1st will need until the middle of October at least before it reaches maturity. I expect the late corn will not make it, hopefully the early corn does.

Good luck.

Do you understand the term annual maintenance???? Apparently not.

I don't think there are any questions actually, they stated that old corn supplies are tight and seemed like a better time to do annual maintenance than during the normal corn harvest time frame this year. Why should they have to scrounge for corn at the end of the old crop season when they need to shut down for a few days sometime to do maintenance? Sort of a no brainer if you ask me.

Each plant is only going to be shut down for 2 to 5 days per the article, so the impact on corn oil and ethanol production is minimal. They might be installing GERS method II system to get even more corn oil from each bushel of corn, to take the yield up to over 1 lb./bu. from the current .65 lb./bu.

No big deal.

You truly are clueless when it comes to understanding the basis for buying and selling corn. The Q1 report clearly says the cost of corn was $7.16/bushel, without any transportation costs added in, so what is the true cost of the corn?? Much higher than $7.16 and that is much higher than CBOT price was during that time.

Now you may think that the price of corn has fallen by the prices on the CBOT, but I can tell you that the cash bids have remained above $7.00 the vast majority of the time up to now even. The only prices that are lower are new crop prices as the supply of old corn is very tight and end users are having to bid up the price $1.40 above the CBOT September price for cash bids now. Sorghum a couple days ago in California was $14.29/cwt. That translates to $8.00/bushel which includes transportation, by the way. The same day price of corn was $14.70/cwt. and that translates to $8.23/bushel. Oh my that is only $0.23/bushel less, I wonder who is skewing the numbers. Think any farmers sold their corn for a dollar less than the day before?? Seriously, you are totally out of touch with reality if think that happens.
.
Don't let your panties get too tight, but my numbers are perfectly accurate, it's yours that have a tendency to be inaccurate, to say the least. Do you really think that just because the shares didn't get added until the day after Q2 ended that they don't exist?? Unbelievable!!

I'll believe PEIX made any money, when I see it on the Q2 report, they haven't I'm nearly 100% confident of, and they won't until after they start using new crop grains in the 4th quarter, but that will depend on if the price of ethanol stays up, and the size of the corn crop.

I call BS on your figures.

Your known facts are seriously flawed, I'll highlight the major ones at least.

10.86 million shares is now closer to 14 million shares. PEIX SEC filings.

Sorghum is $0.90/cwt. less than corn, not per bushel. Check it out from the California Grain and Feed Weekly Report.
PEIX average corn cost last quarter was $7.16/bushel which excludes transportation costs. Why is that, and where does that cost get reported?? Quarter 1 report.

WDGS 23% of revenue. The last quarter it was reported that Co-Product Revenues equaled 28.1% as percent of delivered cost of corn. Good luck figuring that one out when they report the cost of corn minus delivery and there are no numbers reporting the DDGS sold or manufactured.

Guaranteed that the ethanol margins have not been 37 cents/bushel in my educated opinion.

The peer reviewed science articles I read back me up that later maturing corn crops have a very strong tendency to be lighter test weight than earlier maturing corn, not always, but usually, due to various reasons. I'm not familiar with "sciantific articles"so I have no idea how to respond to your statement there.

Not familiar with couse of light corn either, but I can tell you that the weather we have had causing late maturing crops WILL influence the final test weights of the corn crop, not every where but certainly the northern corn belt.

Lastly, I've never said that the light test weights will affect the ethanol yield on a per bushel level. Again it will affect the total yield of the corn crop on bushels/acre basis, which will cause the corn crop to be smaller than the market believes it will be, thus raising the costs of the corn, or sorghum for ethanol plants.

I'm not familiar with cut and paste attributes of computers, so will not take the time to try and copy websites. You can either look it up for yourself or call me a liar, no skin off my nose either way, I know what I'm posting is true, up to you and the others to decide what you want to believe.

Good luck

It's called experience, 50 years of it.

I'm not pulling numbers out of thin air, I'm using the more realistic numbers that PEIX is experiencing while operating their plants. The ethanol spread bar chart, while all good is not the barometer that PEIX are not the numbers that are affecting the bottom line. Do you call using the California Grain and Feed Report thin air?

For the record, I do know what I'm talking about when it comes to light corn. Last year the corn had very high test weight, planted early and tasseled early, test weights ranged from 58 to 62 lbs./bushel. In 2009, a cool year, but corn planted early, corn tasseled late in July, and made it to maturity, no early freeze, the test weights ranged from 52 to 57 lbs./bushel depending on variety. If this years crop makes maturity it will have to freeze late like 2009 rather than a normal killing frost date or corn will be really light, because there is a lot of corn that will not tassel before the end of July.

Yeah, you're right, they probably paid even more for the corn and sorghum than I used in my calculations, so it will be even more miraculous if PEIX makes money in the Q2.

October delivery for sorghum was quoted yesterday at $11.09/cwt. versus cash sorghum priced at $14.29/cwt. Conversely the price of ethanol is $0.30/gallon less also, courtesy of the California grain and feed report summary.

I've got just as much credibility as you have, probably more given that I have no stake in PEIX. I really could care less if they make money or not, but I'll tell you this. If PEIX makes money the 2nd quarter I'll quit posting here and you and the rest of you pumpers can pump to your hearts delight.

It's called the USDA cash grain bids and the ethanol plant margin worksheet, from the Professional Ag Marketing web site.

You and Kel are the ones quoting misleading data. I'm trying to point out that the real price of the corn either in Iowa or the west coast is not anywhere close to the Chicago price. Right now Sorghum for California is $14.29/cwt. for delivery today. That is around $8.00/bushel and the ethanol price is around $2.35/gallon for today. The margins aren't that good when you consider the cost of crush, variable costs, and operating along with the fixed costs of ownership that they estimate at $1.63/bushel.

Ethanol @ 2.8 gallons/bushel X $2.65/gallon = $7.40
Distillers grains 17 lbs./bu. X $230/ton = $1.96
Corn Oil .6 lbs./bu $0.20
=========
TOTAL: $9.56/bushel

Costs: Corn/Sorghum CA Bids: $8.00
Variable Costs: $1.28
Fixed Costs: $0.25
=========
TOTAL: $9.53/bushel

Do you understand the difference between Chicago futures prices and cash prices. The difference is called the basis and right now the September basis is averaging $1.40/bushel over the September contract price for today's cash bids. I gave PEIX an extra $0.30/gallon for ethanol, the problem lies with the costs of the feed grain either sorghum or corn is much higher priced in California than the Midwest by nearly a dollar/bushel.

I've got a pretty good idea that the fixed costs are probably more than the numbers used on most of these ethanol margin spread sheets, so the $.03/gallon ethanol margin is likely a bogus number.

The state of Iowa average basis on corn is +$1.40/bushel over the September contract. Your use of the bar chart does not represent the true cost of the corn, or sorghum. Current cash bids for corn in Iowa are $6.58 to $7.10 while the current ethanol bids are $2.34 to $2.48/gallon. The use of the bar chart only is misleading as to the potential profitability for ethanol plants.

Anyone else see Skunks' posting of ICM signing a non-compete agreement way back in 2004 to get to look at the backend COES system?? I think the lawsuit could come to a much quicker conclusion with this information coming out. Their outright stealing of the technology, was both calculated and done to harm GERS. Anyone here believe that ICM does not compete with GERS??

Looking forward to some great news in the near future.

GLTA

Guess PEIX hasn't been making money after all as I suggested a long time ago. Since the R/S they have diluted 30% or more than 3 million shares. No cash being used to pay down debt, just dilution to pay off creditors, and I truly don't believe that they are making money now or will until sometime later this year, if then, depending on the size of the corn crop and the corresponding effect that will have on the new crop corn prices and subsequently sorghum prices as well, as both are used for feed for livestock or ethanol plants.

This article summarizes my concerns for this years corn crop better than I can express it.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/05/further-to-a-1740-type-event/#more-89414

GLTA

My so called patch of dirt (soil is the proper term) includes 1/2 of Iowa, a good share of Minnesota, Wisconsin, also. The growing seasons perhaps have expanded in previous years, but this year is different obviously if you are paying attention to the growth of all plants, ornamental, trees, and crops, are all much later in development this year versus normal years. The only salvation will be if we have a warmer September than average and a later killing frost than average. The 2013 crop is NOT on pace to be record levels, as the planted acreage will be adjusted downwards by 3 or 4 million acres at least. I drove to town yesterday, about 10 miles and could add around 3,000 acres that is unplanted along the road. If I had gone to the west instead there is even more acres unplanted in the same distance. I'm wide awake, just trying to get some others to wake up and understand that the U.S. produces nearly 40% of the world's corn and is the world's largest exporter with nearly 60% of all the world's corn exports. This year's crop is far from being in the bin, and the market does not and will not understand this until harvest time IMO. By the way, the plan has been in place since before planting season arrived.

Top ten Corn Production Counties:

1). U.S. 355,743 metric tons, No.1 exporter

2.) China 212,00 metric tons, net importer

3.) Brazil 72,000 metric tons

4.) Europe 63,875 metric tons

5.) Argentina 27,000 metric tons

6.) Ukraine 26,000 metric tons

7.) Mexico 23,000 metric tons

8.) India 21,500 metric tons

9.) Canada 13,800 metric tons

10.) South Africa 13,000 metric tons

Top ten Total: 837,418 metric tons U.S. share = 42.5%

Top ten Sorghum Production Countries.

1.) U.S. 10,975 metric tons

2.) Mexico 6,800 metric tons

3.) Nigeria 6,500 metric tons

4.) India 5,800 metric tons

5.) Argentina 5,400 metric tons

6.) Sudan 3,800 metric tons

7.) Ethiopia 3,700 metric tons

8.) Australia 2,100 metric tons

9.) Brazil 2,100 metric tons

10.) China 2,000 metric tons

Total top ten: 48,975 metric tons. U.S. share 22.4%

Still think the United States production doesn't matter??

Bull. The growing season has not expanded, more likely it is shortening as the sun is in a solar minimum and will be for the next 30 years or more. If you believe the global warming hysteria, you should realize that the month of June was the 1st month with no snow in Rochester, MN since October, 2012. This season did not start until after May 1st and will certainly not last an extra 23 days as you claim. Weather is not climate either way, but I will tell you that the crops are affected far more by cooler weather in a negative fashion than they are by warmer weather providing adequate moisture is available.

Right now the early wet weather has delayed maturity, affected the root systems of the plants that have survived, and created a huge amount of compaction where I can tell in nearly every field I've seen the direction of every tillage pass made. If it dries out and it has some to this point, a truly dry spell may create a real disaster from drought that will dwarf last years drought, due to the poor root development and crops not being able to reach the subsoil for the water they may need.

No record corn crop world wide this year guaranteed.

I'll stick with my statements as I said the so called experts will be wrong in the end, including Lanworth. A cool summer is exactly what the crop does not need at this point, as cooler weather will only delay maturity that much more leading to smaller kernels and low test weights, throwing off the yield estimates by 20% or more possibly. Normally we have 55-60 pound test weights, this year if it ends like 1993, the test weights will be 45-50 pounds per bushel of corn. The market measures corn in total pounds which is 56 lbs./bushel. You do the math, and listen who you want to, but I'll be more right in the end I believe.

You didn't see what I see when traveling Iowa and MN. Some of the worst crops in years, Iowa will still be lucky to see 160 bushel average, as there are thousands and thousands of acres if not millions that have absolutely terrible stands between the tile lines which account for 1/3 to 1/2 of an entire field, then the rest of the corn is yellow due to nitrogen loss and guess what, the farmer will not put any more money into this crop as the insurance will be engaged for the poor yields and when that appears to be the prospects for yield the inputs stop to boost yields. I have acres that will be lucky to make 100 bushels/acre which is about 1/2 of a normal crop and 60-70 bushels less than last year. Then there are the acres that did not get planted that was not reflected in the planting report because as of June 1st, everyone still intended to plant their corn acres because of the insurance guarantees, but once the weather didn't allow enough good weather to get it done, those acre became prevented planting for corn as soybeans don't pay nearly as well when it comes to the insurance.

Then finally, the corn and soybean crops are late, really late. Last year corn was tasseling this 4th of July, today there is corn that won't tassel for another 4 to 5 weeks at least and once pollination occurs it will take another 60 days for the corn to reach maturity. An early frost will take a lot off the yields, besides these late maturing crops never yield as well regardless of the frost date, 70 to 80% of yield potential at the most.

Like I said before, the markets think there is a big corn crop on the way, but come this fall, they will discover that the yields just aren't there, a repeat of 1993 all over again.

GLTA

This will not and is not a good year for the corn crop. The ratings you are seeing are for a crop that is far behind normal development, thus the ratings are much lower than they should be for the stage of growth the crop is at today. Look for the ratings in the weeks ahead to begin to reflect the damage that has been done to the crop due to all the wet conditions that the crop was planted in. My personal ratings would put the crop at about 50% good, 5% excellent, 30% fair, and the balance 15% poor to very poor. Never mind all the acres that did not get planted.

Bottom line, don't pin your hopes on PEIX on a big corn crop lowering the price of corn and sorghum, not happening IMO.

Since nobody starting buying GERS from the very beginning and after each and every RS, I would say his track record is abysmal to say the least, regardless of what he posted. He continued to buy against his own words, and forecasts, so he did not practice what he preached if he was telling the truth about his holdings. And now he has taken a HUGE loss if he truly did sell, so time will tell how his track record finishes. I for one, see if as a good sign when someone that has been wrong for the last 5 years capitulates and gives up. Tells me the bottom has been reached and we can expect a big bounce from here. GERS is very close to making money on a consistent basis, unlike PEIX who continues to lose money on a consistent basis and will continue to do so, for quite some time it appears to me.

Good luck

And Iowa grows over 15% of the total US corn supply, so goes Iowa so goes the supply, and right now the total supply for corn OR Sorghum is in jeopardy of being tight once again for another year and keeping the ethanol industry in a bidding war for feedstocks as it is doing now. Cash bids are substantially above the CBOT prices and keeping crush margins tight. PEIX will not make any money IMO until after the 3rd quarter this year if then, depending on the remaining growing season and the grain stocks outlook at that time. They simply have too many costs to cover and not enough revenue. When you put PEIXs' figures into the Ethanol Margin worksheet they are losing money on every gallon of ethanol sold.