I think we do it easy with the way things are going and maybe even 85. Unless something major happens I'd be surprised if we weren't well over 100 by the end of the year. The way I see it we have these catalysts going for us in the next year: the lower tax rate, repatriated funds, probable dividend increase, stock buybacks, interest rate increase(s), possible Dodd-Frank reform, high rate of economic activity, and overall market psychology. I mentioned the old TARP warrants in one of the posts below with the strike price of $104, I used to think that was just a good longshot bet, now I think it's going to end up being the best investment I made this year.

I'm hearing the talk about Citi taking that huge tax write down loss related to tax reform will be a non-issue with all the money they can repatriate and future tax savings. Any opinions on that? I can see Citi gaining around 40% this year. I think the market is still trying to figure out the winners and losers from tax reform but money center banks will win either way.

If I only had the patience to buy and hold back then...
These's still a lot of money to be made in their options and warrants though. I'm guessing they could be in the 120's by 2019.

Ya, and if you look here http://www.citigroup.com/citi/investor/stockholder_services.html just go to warrants information. Citi adjusts the strike price on their website every time a dividend is paid. The strike price is 104.96

The series A. The series B has a strike price of $170 or something so those are worthless but the Series A strike price in 2019 has a chance. I was wrong on the strike price but in a good way, it is $106, not $110. The warrant's have dividend protection, which means that every time Citi pays a dividend the strike price gets adjusted down which is another good thing it has going for it.

http://www.citigroup.com/citi/investor/stockholder_services.html

Does anyone like the financial crisis era Citigroup TARP warrants?
They're down to 11 cents and if Cit hits $110 by 2019 then you make about a 100x return. Is anyone else in these and have an opinion of them? With tax reform and probably Dodd-Frank reform I think it's got a longshot chance at $110 by 2019. Might be a gamble, but I think really good risk reward since you can get into it for so cheap. I think the only reason they are at .11 right now might be just because there isn't too much info about the TARP the out there so barely anyone knows about them. Is anyone else in these? I'd like to hear some opinions if anyone is.

OT - Bank of America TARP warrants

A long time ago we had a discussion about these on the Yahoo board. BAC.WS.A is at 3.80 right now, these seem like they may be a good idea again with Buffett's recently involvement. Any opinions?

So what would you guess managements next move would be; judging by the previous decisions that you detailed?
I'm guessing that reinvesting in the CDOs would seem to be the most consistent with past behavior.

Nice blog Plan,

If you don't mind, is this a typo in the opening quote?
"With respect to CDO buybacks, a wise man once told me that when you can buy your debt back cheap buy it because you understand your debt better than anybody else is – Michael Ashner, Winthrop Realty Trust"

Is the "is" at the end not supposed to be there?

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But regarding management track record....I like your arguments but I'm still not a fan of Roger Cozzi.
Both SFI and Fortress have had a rocky past and I'm not sure what his job was at Goldman.
I still don't understand why he couldn't get the real estate financed at a time when banks seemed to be anxious to put money into CRE and lots of other REITS were getting financing. Then the fact that they spent 4 or 5 million on extensions was a big waste and just seems to suggest a lack of a plan.
And I think we are all turned off by the fact that management hasn't given an update and is behind in it's SEC filings.
I say this knowing I might just be talking out of my ass, since I'm no finance guru, but I don't really see a reason to be a Roger Cozzi fan right now.

Anyone think GKK might decide to do the same thing? We have the cash.

I think the key right now is seeing if they voted to dilute in the shareholder meeting today.

Any rough idea's on what the new trading range might be if we lost the realty and just had the CDO's, our hoard of cash, and the management fee's?

Where does GKK goes from here, assuming they don't somehow make a last minute deal on the real estate?

We still have the CDO's, a ton of available cash, and future management fees. That's not too horrible, right? I think that the news combined with an overall bad day in the markets made for a much bigger drop then expected.

Oversold?

The news is not good, but does anyone think today's 28% is more then expected?

Am I correct in saying that they can still sign a new deal?

Hi. Followed Plan over from the Yahoo boards. Looking forward to reading the conversations in here.