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I wouldn't dismiss these results so quickly. For shallow holes, those numbers are respectable. I have had nothing to add to the discussion on this board for months. Like the rest of you, my position is devastated, no reason to sell now. I am curious about the new offer to current shareholders. The exclusion of American shareholders in EXSFF seems to create two classes of shareholders with two sets of options within the same company. I also don't see the advantage of the offer to EXS.V holders, with the company plan as described, but I am troubled that if there are/were actual advantages to exercising the ownership rights, those advantages are not available to EXSFF holders. Regards to all the old hands on this board.
Reward_to_Risk
May I add the CFTC, BLS, and any other US govt entity to that list? And the Chamber of Commerce, the National Realtors Association, etc.
Gregory,
"When Money Dies" by Fergusson (first name escapes me, Alan, Adam?) is an excellent study of the Weimar inflation and the destruction of the mark. Essential background reading for anyone who wants to understand what von Mises was describing when he talks about credit bubbles always ending in ruin, either voluntarily or inevitably.
The historical experience (US in the 1970s and early 80s) is that the gold price can explode while interest rates are rising, until rates rise to a point where the inflation-adjusted return on treasuries is greater than the genuine rate of inflation (Gibson's Paradox, which also explains why the gold price must be controlled by central banks). The American experience was Treasury returns approaching 20% before the gold price rise was broken. History rhymes, so I would predict that interest rates rising 2-5% would do little to stop the price of gold, while making the US govt's debt burden unbearable.
You also asked about gold production increases in the near future. I think we are seeing consistently declining production from South Africa, Peru had a bad year, and I believe Australia's production was down also. China is a growing producer, but their gold never reaches the international market. That is also the case with other producers, and is likely to be the case with even more countries going forward. So I would make a disctinction between absolute production (which is fairly constant overall and falling in some leading producing countries) and new production that actually reaches the world market. I see little chance that production reaching the world market will increase appreciably in the next few years. Also permitting is becoming more difficult, smaller discoveries are being made in areas without water and mining infrastructure, govt taxes and royalties are making marginal mines unprofitable in many countries, the rights of indigenous peoples are being considered more strongly, etc. No reason I see to expect world production reaching the market to rise sharply.
GLTALs,
RTR
STR8Shooter, I've given you the benefit of the doubt in all of your posts, as you have every right to vent your frustrations. To question a man like Jim Sinclair, who has proven his credibility in the precious metals community with over 40 years in the trenches, suggests either that there is more to you than a disgruntled Explor investor or that you have no idea who's who in this realm. Sinclair has published his thoughts for years and is above repraoch in my book. He backs up his beliefs and words with his own money. He cares about small investors, honest markets, and political integrity.
I want to second what Destinator has written. Explor is an exploration play; by definition, a small exploration company has to have a number of things go right, in addition to having a strong prospective property. Rumors, leaks, weather, vendettas, etc. can have a devastating impact on a small exploration company, even if they ultimately prove to have the goods. Dilution is a constant threat. Shareprice is not a particularly good measure in the short term for such companies. This is a retirement investment, not a quick, speculative play. Exploration is a difficult and imprecise art/science. The engineering is complex. This is also true of majors with deep pockets.
The real issue, for me, is if I believe there is evidence of fraud. If so, sell your position and pursue legal action. If not, read more and study the geology, stay positive. Is the company meeting its goals, even if there are frustrating delays sometimes? Does the switch to shallower exploration invalidate the model? Absolutely not. We have hit gold consistently at both the shallower and the deeper intercepts. As for finding the nosefold, that will require patience, and there is a hottub with your name on it if you can stick with the program. If we had continued to step out the drilling and gone deeper and failed to continue to intercept gold, then you'd have have concerns. But "open on strike and at depth" suggests to me that you just keep following the trail. The deeper drilling is expensive, so perhaps a return to shallower drilling makes sense in terms of building shareholder value at this time. The quest for the deeper, richer material can wait.
Aside from the fall in shareprice, I see nothing that demonstrates failure in terms of geology or engineering. Would I prefer to be at $1 or even $0.50 right now? Of course. But until I see outright failure, I'm patiently long, with a multiple year perspective.
Sorry for rambling on,
RTR
Understood, Destinator, just a suggestion. Good to see you posting again.
May I suggest to the board administrators that this post be moved to the featured posts at the top of the page, so interested parties can easily check the current weather conditions at Kidd Creek whenever they visit this board?
Thank You,
RTR
I wonder how much of the anxiety we've experienced over the last year would have been avoided with a deep freeze and good drill results from KC last winter. It makes you appreciate the difference between success and failure in an exploration company. Still long and optimistic, and not going anywhere.
Happy holidays everyone.
I used my dividend from Silver Wheaton to buy more shares of Explor. I'm a man with a plan! Is there any way to make that wallpapering job tax deductible?
Hey Everybody, I am still reading the board, just haven't had much to add. I miss Destinator's insights; I hope he is doing well in his new pursuits. I expected a rough ride with this junior exploration company, as well as with precious metals generally. I still believe Explor is worth holding. Good luck to all patient longs.
To the Belgian colleagues, thank you so much for Eden Hazard. As a long time Chelsea supporter, he is a joy to watch and he makes all his teammates better with his play.
Regards,
RTR
Thanks for that very informative post By. Really encouraging. It has been hard staying on the sidelines of the recent tension on this board. The majority are clearly sincere and optimistic, but concerned, for genuine reasons. If this is your first exploration company rodeo, you will learn patience or lose your mind. Even when it feels this close to some positive, momentous outcome, there could still be several more twists and turns, and it could take many months or years just to sort out TPW. It's like Jesse Livermore advised, "Be right and sit tight." We have the real deal in TPW, we have a great portfolio of other properties, we have very consistent drill results on TPW, some outstanding hits. It will all come out OK in the end, but it won't be on any linear timeline and it still won't be without surprises and anxieties. I get concerned when people post that once we reach a certain ounce level in the NI43-101, we will be guaranteed a buyout at so many dollars per share. It is never that simple, and the reasons are rarely transparent. Stay calm, stay focused, stay positive, and keep asking great questions of management.
GLTA,
RTR
Ed Steer's Gold and Silver Daily had a great read on the impact of gold price manipulation on underground mining in the 80s and 90s. Written by Murray Pollitt, I think the piece provides important background information for assessing what we might have in EXSFF. The link is here:
http://www.gata.org/files/MurrayPollitt-01-18-2012.pdf
Regards,
RTR
PB, I have never forgotten the welcome you gave me after I made my first post on the other board. I thought I had stepped into some strange world. I am very glad this board exists. I only post when I feel like I have something to say. I am a bit concerned that posters here feel like a JV or takeover is guaranteed if this or that happens. If we have the goods, it will happen, but not necessarily on a fixed time schedule.
The deep hole is an interesting play. I was concerned about that strategy when money was a bit tighter -- hard to pinpoint the deep, high-grade material when you move so far from your last successful hole, and it's expensive to take that shot. If it works, we'll all be happy, as the infill drilling from closer to the edge of the property back to the last drill holes will have a much higher prospect of certainty. I remain long and strong, but it does concern me when others on the board are so frustrated and hoping for more immediate results. That just isn't the nature of precious metals exploration stories, for the most part.
I have read all of your comments and I can't thank you enough for helping me shape my own thinking. I remain confident about EXS, but I do want to caution folks not to think too mechanically, as in when we hit 1.5 million ounces on the NI 43-101 we will have a takeover bid like clockwork. If we hit that milestone and we don't get a bid the next day, some people will be disappointed and start throwing stones. I keep counseling patience and approaching this investent as a process. For those who are counting on a quicker score, this might not be the right investment choice. For those who can wait as the steps play out, you could well be in the right place. As I've mentioned before, I like the deliberate, systematic drilling, and the patient buildup of the resource. I'm not opposed to the deep drill hole as a long shot at a glory hole, but I think the consistent step out drilling 50 meters at a go, will be rewarded. I am also keeping an eye on the cash on hand, as that will be an important determinant of the pace of development and shareprice.
GLTA,
RTR
Destinator, I was also struck by the open pit potential. Not getting too far ahead of myself here, but that could be a game changer. If we could develop that operation at tens of millions of dollars, a much easier lift in terms of financing, we could be in a much better position to finance continued drilling, at TPW or beyond, at least in part from cash flow. At least it could be easier to raise additional money with an on-going operation as background. I hope we hear quite a bit more about this open pit potential in the months to come. This could have an imprtant influence on JV needs, etc.
RTR
Steven, I'm late in responding, but thank you so much for taking the initiative to make the trip, sitting down with Chris and Gary, and providing all of us with such useful information.
RTR
In fact, I do like the same ol', same ol'. We are hitting meaningful gold with each hole, confirming the model, and systematically adding to the resource. We continue to move toward richer and wider grades. The share dilution was painful, but we now have a substantial treasury to keep advancing the drillwork. Closing the second offering will expand the money that is the lifeblood of an exploration company. As long as the drilling is methodical and the results are consistent, it seems it is only a matter of time until something special happens. Anyone buying shares in an exploration company at this stage of development looking for a quick payout from a gloryhole is making a mistake and will be disappointed. Patience will be rewarded, whatever the short-run setbacks. Unless the money runs out.
I'll go back to my cave now, except I want to offer a totally unsubstantiated guess at the resource they will report in the NI 43-101: 2.3 million ounces. This will, of course, grow with future 43-101s. Anyone else want to get on record and embarrass himself/herself?
GLTA,
RTR
I'm hoping to get some discussion going about Wesdome. The latest drill results looks great, and it looks like we can expect better grades being mined for the remainder of 2011 and into 2012. With rising prices for gold, WDOFF looks poised for some good quarters to come.
RTR
Hey Everyone, I'm still around, just haven't had anything productive to post. There are two takeaways from the latest from Gary: 1) I don't imagine they would continue to wedge off of 47 if they were unhappy with previous results; and 2) holding off on a funding initiative until the JV is finalized suggests that a JV is much more advanced than I had realized. I certainly believe that funding concerns are the explanation for the fall in SP, so any progress in laying hands on the cash that will keep the drills turning is welcome.
RTR
I also heard many good things, but I have a few cautionary comments. Cash on hand is a major issue. Drilling is expensive, lab analysis and the NI 43-101 on TPW and consultants and geologists all cost money. We have a funding squeeze to overcome here. Next, while I strongly support the methodical, resource-building program CD has chosen, rather than the wildcat, shoot for a glory hole technique, the chosen program will require patience and, did I mention, money. Anybody who must have a quick payday on this play could get hurt. This is still a speculative position, no matter how optimistic CD feels. Until the money issue is addressed in a more long-term way, things could go south in a big way, even if TPW is ultimately proved up beyond our wildest dreams. To reiterate, I haven't sold a share and I have no plans to sell, but we are far from the home stretch, so think marathon, not sprint. It could be years before the full value of TPW is demonstrated.
On the flip side, we have a report on Destor due in a few weeks, a report on TPW's hole 47 in the next little bit, and the NI 43-101 later this fall. Plenty of potential for SP appreciation in the next 4-6 months.
RTR
Thank you, Mauigold. I look forward to watching the conference call sometime after tomorrow morning.
Will the presentation be archived so those of us who are stuck at work can watch it later?
GLTA,
RTR
Hey Everyone, just wanted to say I'm still here, still long, and still optimistic. I just haven't had much to add to the discussion. I've been through so many of these whipsaws that it almost feels unnatural when there isn't a crisis to test one's patience. This is a walk in the park compared to late 2008. Richard Russell always talks about the secular bull market doing its utmost to throw as many riders as it can as it makes its halting progress upwards.
I'll take question 1, Handsome Man, and Bienvenido.
Understanding "open along strike and at depth" requires a 3-dimensional view. Management will normally tell you how they plan to direct the drilling, so let's say it will run along an east-west axis, stepping out each drill hole farther to the west. If the drilling continues to encounter mineralization up to the last westward hole drilled, it's not that the mineralization has stopped being encountered to the west; it's that they have stopped drilling to the west, so the mineralization is still open along strike, or in this case in a westerly direction. More drill holes even farther to the west will confirm that there is/is not more mineralization as you continue drilling west, along the axis of the drilling. Open at depth is the same concept, only as you drill deeper. So let's say you encounter mineralization at 150 meters, and 200 meters, and 220 meters, but your drilling stops at 220 meters. As far as one can tell from the drilling conducted, you have not demonstrated that the mineralization has ended at that depth; your drilling has ended at that depth. So the mineralization is open at depth, until even deeper drilling confirms the mineralization continues or ends beyond that point. Being open both along strike and at depth is the most desirable place to be, because your drill program has ended still hitting mineralization at the last hole you drilled along the drilling axis and at the deepest point you drilled for a given hole. Hope that helps.
Did a quick check on their website and things seem to match. (Have a real job why again? Would much rather be doing this full time.)
I looked at the ad also. Mentioned the company as having other positions in Saskatchewan, Mexico (2) and the Dominican Republic, I believe. I believe it was attached to The Daily Reckoning, and was hosted by Chris Mayer, who is top drawer IMHO.
Fair question, In XS. My perspective is that I have waited out a few other exploration plays to my significant gain, became impatient and sold a few way too early to my regret, and was overconfident and stayed with others too long to my detriment. I'm a human being, and I can be distracted in the short term by the rumors. I don't live in the Timmins area, I don't have the opportunity to travel to the conferences and shows (although I hope that will change if Explor hits big), so I am not a source of rumors. I try to take it all with a grain of salt. I'm sure I sound like a broken record, but Explor could still miss altogether, it could take years more drilling to prove up a resource worth developing or taking over, or it could go large tomorrow. The issue is trajectory and plan, results and model. Drilling toward a demonstrated, richer resource and going deeper by hundreds of meters is hypothesized to be the right path to find the elephant results at TPW. That is what management is doing, systematically and professionally. Some call it insensitivity or an outright lack of caring, but I think the professionals are doing what they do best. If I have the maturity to stay with the program, I expect a decent result. Could be less than I'd hoped for, could take longer than I'd wish, could exceed my wildest dreams. That's how I would respond to those rumors.
Destinator, I just did a back of the envelope calculation that I intend to put in my pocket for when the follow up PR on the two holes is out. Lakeshore announced 12.75 grams/tonne over 83.7 meters, which resulted in a roughly $1 billion surge in market cap for LSG. So here comes the fuzzy math: 83.7 meters X 12.75 grams = 1067.2 metergrams (I have already patented this new term, so no one else will get rich off this brilliant insight, lol). When EXSFF announces its next TPW results over 50.5 meters (if memory serves), if the grade is 21.2 grams per ton or better (a very healthy grade to be sure), we will be at roughly 1070.6 metergrams. The price of gold has risen nicely since the LSG discovery, but all things equal and making conservative assumptions, we are looking for 21.2 grams/tonne over 50.5 meters and we have our liftoff. QED (a middle school education is a terrible thing to waste!)
Bull_Run, I hope we can start a thread after Explor hits it big so we can discuss how we all plan to diversify our portfolios with our gains. Some dividend-paying producing miners perhaps, agricultural plays, fresh water, MLPs, farm land trusts, etc., etc. I'm really looking forward to that discussion. Now that I understand better your position in EXSFF, I'm really hoping this works out for you and all of us.
Destinator, 50,000 more shares is too rich for my blood; the pot is yours. To Bull_Run and Denton 007, I chose the nickname I did to remind myself that one has to take some informed chances to get the returns that can have a significant impact on one's financial well being. I have no second-thoughts or doubts about Explor's potential, but it is still an exploration play, and even now, with all the buzz and huge potential, it might not play out soon or ever. I salute you both for being all in, because this is a stock that could have enormous returns, on more than one property (serial takeovers, what a concept). I am simply not wired to be all in on one speculative play. My speculative money (and a lot more) is on Explor, but I have tried to keep some perspective, holding onto some high quality producers and royalty companies. Anyway, I sure hope your risk is richly rewarded, because you certainly have them hanging out there, with this as your only holding. Good luck!
I think we need to keep reminding ourselves that this is an exploration play, not a senior producer. We all want a big score, NOW, but that isn't how most exploration plays work (until they do, of course). CD is sticking to the plan he laid out, with these new results demonstrating that everything is on track. If you were playing poker with this hand, would you fold now or stay in the game to see another card? RTR says, "Hit me." To our Belgian colleagues, I'm having waffles for breakfast this morning, in your honor!
Can't remember which American Revolutionary War character said it (possibly George Washington, who for our Canadian friends is sort of an American historical figure equal in stature to Wayne Gretzky plus Gordon Lightfoot), but he said something along the lines of, "We can't guarantee success, but we can be worthy of success." That's how I view a little extra reading on these issues -- it doesn't guarantee we'll get it right, but at least we will be worthy of success if we hit it out of the park. It's my pleasure, and once I've done the legwork, why not share it?
Best of luck to the longs,
RTR
PS Canadian friends, please know I was having some fun. Respect to Sarnia and Windsor. And Timmins. And all of Ontario and Quebec.
If the PRs still haven't come in the next few weeks, you'll all have to talk me off the ledge, but nothing will have changed. Either we have the goods or we don't, and if we do, we're talking about a potentially material difference in our lives. This holds whether it is a week, a month, or 6 months till the good news is officially confirmed.
Now can I get some love for Destor, Eastford Lake, etc., etc., the other beautiful, if as yet underappreciated, sisters? A portfolio of properties, each a story in its own right.
Thank you for the update on MDO, sir. Always helps to hear what other sources (that I don't have access to) are saying.
Great interview, Joe. Thanks for posting. Plus, In heaven there ain't no beer!
I've been thinking about the issue of the frequency and content of the PRs. I think it is very much part of the culture of a company. Another junior miner I own issues a press release to let shareholders know it's about to issue a press release. They make you feel informed and cared about, but I'm not sure the PRs play a bigger role, in terms of share price. Explor management is not of the hand-holding variety. Both with that other company and with Explor, I try to let the professionals drive the bus. Ownership implies trust in the professionalism of the company's management. CD has a number of balls in the air (e.g., drill programs to design/oversee/adjust on multiple properties, interpretation of lab results on same, rumored financing and joint venture/takeover negotiations on possibly several properties, etc.) and I think we have to trust his leadership in the timing of the PRs. If you don't, maybe you need to find a company with a greater commitment to shareholder relations. I will trust in CD to deliver the only shareholder interaction that really matters, a longer term appreciation in share price. The bigger picture requires that the timing and substance of these next press releases be handled right. I'd rather they came correct and more slowly, than incomplete and faster. That's my story till it changes.
I guess the bounce on bigger volume the last few days has everybody feeling more positive, and clearly more creative. Nice haiku, Pantherman!
And lastly, Canadian Arrow has hit new nickel sulphides in Timmins, to the point that they are considering re-starting production. This PR is from the end on March:
http://www.caclubindia.com/blog/canadian-arrow-evaluating-nickel-production-re-start-of-timmins-deposits-3886.asp
If the Kidd Creek drilling has intercepted a meaningful nickel sulphide deposit, we will be in good company. Oh, yes, and we'll be financially better off.
Another link, to nickel resources in Abitibi:
http://www.mndm.gov.on.ca/mines/ogs/resgeol/offices/Timmins%20Nickel%20Field%20Trip%20Guide.pdf
Page 2 of the report features a color map detailing current nickel deposits. In the upper left hand corner, in yellow, one can just make out the name BRISTOL. Anyone heard of it?
RTR
More nickel sulphide DD:
Brief article on Canada's strategic need to expand nickel sulphide exploration and production at http://www.canadianminingreview.com/2011/03/nickel-exploration.html . Highlights:
Major nickel producers are simply not willing to invest in a 10-year effort to locate new greenfields deposits. Such an effort could, however, be led by a number of innovative junior exploration companies working together in a consortia. They have a great story to tell potential investors. Here's how the story line could go:
Nickel sulphides have a much lower ecological footprint than the energy-hungry, water-gulping, land-hungry laterite producers in Indonesia, New Caledonia, Madagasgar and Australia.
Canada has a surplus of low-carbon-emitting hydro electric power and can therefore produce the lowest carbon-emittting nickel in the world provided significant nickel sulphide deposits can be located for long-term reserves.
These two advantages alone would make sulphide nickel mining in Canada lower cost than any laterite nickel operation in the world, especially when some form of carbon tax or global carbon emissions trading system becomes reality worldwide.
GLTA,
RTR