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There are very nice places in Colorado, no doubt, and they aren't that far actually, from where I live. But you gotta come down. It's all personal preference and I prefer salt water and all that goes with it. I'm (by definition) retired and have been for five years, but when I really retire, it will be somewhere where I can dangle my feet in some crystal clear salt water. That's the plan anyway.
It's been 90+ for weeks here and 100+ on several days. At least in Houston, the beach was 30 mins away, and for me, I prefer the humidity to the dry air. I just feel better. Colorado is nice, no doubt, but I prefer Texas... or Barbados. Puerto Rico, Panama or Sicily (where my wife is now vacationing without me) all would do in a pinch.
I've been exiled to Colorado. My wife, who is from a climate nearly identical to that of Houston (from whence I hail), said it was too hot and humid in Houston. But I was told I couldn't shoot her. Go figure. And that is why I'm stuck using the less reliable raccoon liver.
BTW - Raccoon liver dissection reveals that another very attractive setup is ripening.
And that's even considering that all of that risk goes toes up, which (barring an extinction level comet strike) it won't.
Tomorrow should be interesting.
For me, in my opinion, it is possibly a good sign that an actual battle is being fought over price. We haven't seen this. Not much anyway. It's easier to interpret price action when price is based on consensus.
Spent a few minutes watching the trading action this morning and it looked like an actual auction. It will be interesting to see who wins the battle. The bears are really having to work to hold it down, so far.
Another thing this does (in my weak minded opinion) is that it removes a specter that has hung over the commons with respect to a perceived danger that the commons would face wholesale cancellation at some point. This would seem to allay that and impute similar value to the commons that were previously reserved for the preferreds.
Just a thought.
According to the latest scientific studies and technical prognostications (possum innards mainly), if we can hit 1.29 by the end of the week, we enter the next phase up. That's a pretty good push, but it's possible and there are some indications that make it look fairly likely, imo.
The balance sheet is too hard to read if pasted.
Part II
Statutory Income Statement
SGI's net income was $209.0 million for the year ended December 31, 2015 compared with a net loss of $52.7 million for the year ended December 31 , 2014. The increase in net income for the full year 2015 compared with the prior year was primarily attributable to the benefit related to the commutation transactions executed in December as discussed above, as well as from positive loss developments related to our structured single risk and RMBS credits.
Net premiums earned were $43.3 million for the year ended December 31, 2015 , as compared with $49.2 million for the year ended December 31 , 2014. This decrease was primarily due to the orderly run-off of the insured portfolio and the cumulative effect of management's continued active remediation efforts.
Net losses and loss adjustment expenses were a benefit of $141.0 million for the year ended December 31, 2015 , as compared with a loss of $118.3 million for the year ended December 31 , 2014. This benefit was also primarily driven by the release of reserves related to the commutation transactions noted above, as well as improved recoveries on loss exposures.
SCAI
Statutory Balance Sheet
As of December 31, 2015 , SCAI held cash and invested assets of $462.7 million , as compared to $478.8 million as of December 31 , 2014. The decrease was primarily due to the payment of $12.2 million of interest on its surplus note during 2015.
Losses and loss adjustment expenses were $40.6 million as of December 31, 2015 , as compared to $22.1 million as of December 31, 2014 . The increase was primarily due to adverse development during 2015 on exposures related to Puerto Rico .
Unearned premium revenue decreased by $53.2 million from $216.7 million as of December 31, 2014 to $163.5 million as of December 31 , 2015. This decrease was primarily driven by higher refunding volume in municipal finance and management's continued active remediation efforts. As a result, SCAI's portfolio was $21.7 billion in net par outstanding as of December 31, 2015 as compared to $31.3 billion in net par outstanding as of December 31, 2014 .
SCAI had policyholders' surplus of $192.1 million and claims-paying resources totaling $599.2 million as of December 31, 2015 . The improvement in policyholders' surplus was primarily due to premium accelerations during 2015 as discussed below and releases of contingency reserves under SCAI's existing permitted practices, partially offset by incurred losses during the year on Puerto Rico exposures.
Statutory Income Statement
SCAI's net income was $4.6 million for the year ended December 31, 2015 compared with a net loss of $74.3 million for the year ended December 31, 2014 .
Net premiums earned were $64.9 million for the full year 2015 compared with $53.0 million for the full year 2014. As discussed above, this increase was primarily driven by higher refunding volume during the year and remediation efforts. Total premium accelerations for SCAI were $34.6 million for the year ended December 31, 2015 as compared to $12.8 million for the year ended December 31, 2014 .
Net losses and loss adjustment expenses were $35.9 million for the year ended December 31, 2015 , as compared to $43.9 million for the year ended December 31 , 2014. The decrease was primarily due to a reduction in losses as a result of the Detroit settlement in 2014, partially offset by adverse developments on Puerto Rico exposures during 2015.
Partial cut of release
HAMILTON, Bermuda , Feb. 25, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Syncora Holdings Ltd. ("SHL" or the "Company") and its wholly owned subsidiaries, Syncora Guarantee Inc. ("SGI") and Syncora Capital Assurance Inc. ("SCAI"), today provided updates on their statutory financial results for the year ended December 31, 2015 and on the Company's strategic initiatives.
During the fourth quarter of 2015, SGI completed certain significant commutations and other related transactions that have resulted in a material improvement to SGI's policyholders' surplus position since the filing of its third quarter 2015 statutory financial statements. Specifically, SGI completed transactions that commuted and reinsured key structured single risk credits with refinancing, foreign exchange and/or index-linked risks, as well as structured RMBS credits. The aggregate effect of these commutations reduced SGI's net par outstanding by $1.7 billion and had a positive policyholders' surplus benefit of $116.5 million , as compared to SGI's third quarter 2015 statutory financial statements. These transactions also reduced SGI's forecasted gross claim payments related to its "liquidity mismatch" from $503.1 million to $182.1 million as of December 31, 2015 . See the "Significant Risks and Uncertainties" footnote in SGI's recently filed Annual Statement for a description of this "liquidity mismatch".
Commenting on the commutations, Susan Comparato , Chief Executive Officer said, "These commutations are further strong evidence of the Company's successful risk reduction and remediation plans, and efforts to stabilize the insurance companies and move them into a stable run-off."
Because of the continued uncertainty regarding SGI's and SCAI's exposure to Puerto Rico -related credits, including Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority ("PREPA"), SGI and SCAI have provided updated information on their Puerto Rico -related exposures in their fourth quarter 2015 Operating Supplement. Although SCAI and PREPA continue to negotiate in good faith to reach agreement with respect to SCAI's participation in PREPA's recovery plan, no agreement has been, or may ultimately be reached.
The Company also confirmed that it continues to actively pursue its strategic initiatives to increase value for Syncora stakeholders. Claude LeBlanc , Chief Financial Officer and Chief Restructuring Officer, said, "Following the successful completion of the amendment to the Master Transaction Agreement and entry into a new capital support agreement during the third quarter of 2015, the Company continues to actively pursue its strategic plan and has been engaged in discussions with certain stakeholders and the New York Department of Financial Services with the goal of enhancing value for all stakeholders."
Statutory Financial Results
The Company has posted on its website at www.syncora.com, Statutory Annual Statements for the year ended December 31, 2015 and the fourth quarter 2015 Operating Supplement for its subsidiaries, SGI and SCAI. The Company also posted supplemental information on its subsidiaries' insured portfolio. Highlights of SGI's and SCAI's statutory financial results for the year ended December 31, 2015 are below:
SGI
Statutory Balance Sheet
As of December 31, 2015 , SGI held cash and invested assets of $1,240.4 million , as compared to $1,204.6 million as of December 31 , 2014. The increase was primarily due to its investment in SCAI as a result of the subsidiary's improved policyholders' surplus position.
Losses and loss adjustment expenses were a recoverable of $45.4 million as of December 31, 2015 , as compared to a loss of $111.8 million as of December 31, 2014 . This positive change was primarily driven by the release of reserves related to the commutation transactions executed in December 2015 as discussed above, as well as an increase in salvage recoverable.
Unearned premium revenue decreased by $30.5 million from $141.6 million as of December 31, 2014 to $111.1 million as of December 31, 2015 primarily as a result of management's continued active remediation efforts during the year, as well as from the run-off of the insured portfolio. As a result of these efforts, SGI's portfolio was $6.6 billion in net par outstanding as of December 31, 2015 as compared to $10.3 billion in net par outstanding as of December 31, 2014 .
SGI had policyholders' surplus of $1,087.0 million and claims-paying resources totaling $1,481.0 million as of December 31, 2015 .
That is a very interesting news release.
Somebody with a calculator and better math skills than mine (and perhaps some creative wishful thinking skills), might be able to extrapolate out the per share price effect of the conversions they are talking about. Even a ballpark guess could point to a rough range on where we can expect the price to be headed.
I'm pretty sure I'm making this sound a lot easier than is likely is.
Took a glance at this on TDAmeritrade at 12:20 and no L2 or trade grid.
Annoying.
I had an escrow analysis done on my mortgage and contacted my mortgage holder to check on the implications of the analysis. My mortgage holder is in downtown Detroit.
So I asked the guy I was speaking with, a regular sort, what Detroit was like now. He was really excited about it. He said that downtown had already taken on a completely different attitude that just a few years ago. Everything is upbeat. Development is booming. It has a big city feel to it again (his words - he compared it to the feel of NYC). He talked at length about the new arena and surrounding area.
I bring this up because this type of G2 is typically as reliable as financial reports as a basis for making investment decisions (opinion).
I said "countries" in my last post. I meant to say "companies".
Many global countries had big interests in maintaining and expanding the EU. Goldman, JPM and many others pumped a lot of money into the remain campaign, and are heavy lobbyists to the EU.
I believe you're right. The movers will seek to punish the UK, via the markets, if for no other reason than to keep the Exit phenomenon from spreading. Hopefully, long term, it will be positive.
Ok. I've got a confession to make. The other day, when I said I liked the way this thing was setting up, I was looking a the weekly chart and I thought I was looking at the daily chart.
That said; this is not in terrible shape, technically. The daily chart is not too bad and the weekly chart has actually improved. The monthly has deteriorated, and that's not good news, but it's not necessarily bad news either. The weekly time frame tends to be the least reliable, in my opinion and the daily and the monthly are the most reliable. The monthly is suggesting a period of negative to flat price action with the bollinger bands in disagreement. To me, this means more flat than negative. The daily suggests that conditions are setting up for improvement which also means more probably flat until the monthly works out its indigestion that could take a while to work out.
Best case scenario right now, I believe would be to drift up a while, retrace back to this range and that may be enough to get things moving in the right direction.
This would be an even better result: In the history of this issue, with chart patterns like this, there has never been a reversal from this type of set up on the monthly time frame. If we were to get a reversal from here, before this yuck gets worked out, that would be a very, very good thing.
Obviously, that's just my opinion, backed up by the science of my cheap plastic rune stones.
Hang in there.
Since the little pop is news related, odds are, this is new money which is essential if this is going to catch fire. If they could string a few of these stories together, that would draw in some badly needed eyes.
Looks like the rune stones need calibrating.
They were vibrating excitedly all over the table. Typically a good sign.
I realize that y'all don't share my confidence in my rune stones (and I admit that since I replaced my worn out set with these cheap plastic imports, the performance has been less than stellar), but I've polished them up and this is what I think:
Probably not today, maybe tomorrow and my guess a better shot Thursday, the pump will once again be primed.
I really like the way this is setting up. Again - opinion and not the basis for raiding the shekel hoard.
Denny, I was going to try to reach out to you today. Glad to see you post.
I was just concerned that the trade grid was showing zero interest this morning and I wanted to see if you had any insight.
Looks like some more fuel for the (otherwise dormant) fires.
If I'm not mistaken, this is like the 5th tranche (if you will) into the company's bottom line of similar scope to the JPM settlement since the JPM settlement. One would think the fires would be smoldering a bit more enthusiastically by now.
I hope you, and everyone else on the board is well.
Denny confirmed that Syncora is/will be unaffected, but it may cause a temporary jolt since the PR effect overall, has been pretty irrational. My opinion.
This will generate a few waves (and probably more than a few lawsuits)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-03/bondholders-stunned-puerto-rico-finds-44-billion-outstanding-debt-unconstitutional?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29
Puerto Rico declares $4.4 billion in debt unconstitutional.
Unremarkable technicals to end the week. Plenty of potential energy still there, but it is slowly bleeding off. My take is that this thing needs to make a move at least in the next couple of weeks or more monotony is likely for the foreseeable future.
Anything can happen at any time, but I'd like this thing to utilize some of the energy that is still stored there.
Y'all have a great weekend.
Should be good news:
Andrea Manea, CFA ?@andrea_manea 20m20 minutes ago
Puerto Rico politicians looking to fully pay GOs. Excellent reporting via @NickPBrown. $MBI $AGO $SYCRF $AMBC
Bulk of the story is @NickPBrown 's Twitter.
Thanks. I think richierich is correct too. The squeeze is on on the bollie bands and that normally means a break in one direction or the other. Here's what I think may happen: If we can start another leg up, it will likely go a long way and my reasoning is this; we've built a shelf in this area that will become some pretty strong support if we get over it. Another factor, and probably the most important factor, in my opinion, is that in the immediate time frame, we have been in what I conclude to be a substantially overbought condition for some time now. This means that if we start to trend higher, the bears are going to be very disappointed and I think, given history (however superficial that is) most of the casual observers of this thing are in the bearish camp. If they start being disappointed, they will likely feel compelled to catch up and that catching up will just add fuel to the fire.
All of that AND the substantial hidden value that only a few seem to know anything about, but will not likely stay hidden once news catches up to reality.
That's my opinion.
Semi-regular mystical prediction for today:
Yesterday ended with a bearish doji that would normally indicate a good chance for a negative finish for today. I believe this will be rejected and we will end higher. If so, this would be bullish technically as well as psychologically.
We'll see.
Ditto (the pleasure to hear from posters)
Thanks for all of your efforts.
Sorry no link (busy) - But it looks like congress just secured the PR reorg. More details are probably floating around the interwebs.
The link is a Politico story about Puerto Rico deal struck between Obama and GOP:
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/paul-ryan-puerto-rico-debt-deal-223333
In other words, fraud is in McQuarie's DNA.
Ditto! What rich said.
I don't know that this is relevant to what you are asking, but this morning, I made two comments related to protecting the board's integrity that were deleted because the comments I made referred to what I considered to be devaluation of the board and its participants. They were deleted along with another comment from another contributor on the board.
It looks to me like there may be people (nobody specifically) who know how to use the rules to their advantage. If my observation is accurate, then that would suggest a hidden agenda, in my weak minded viewpoint.
That's it.
Thank you, Denny. I just think that it is important to try to maintain the value associated with the work that people like you put forward in contributing to the board.
So I got a message from Mod Squad 10 explaining why my, and other posts, were deleted.
The content of the message is:
Any time you post about Users or reference groups of Posters (bashers, pumpers, cheerleaders, naysayers, etc.) in your post, this makes your post subject to removal as off-topic and/or personal attack.
Messages need to focus on the company and the stock and should not contain comments about people who post on the board. Other posters are never the topic of the board.
Here is a link to when/why messages are removed on this site.
If you have any further questions, please send a private message to IH Admin. All Users can send private messages to this account which is monitored by all of the site Admins.
Clearly - a selectively applied standard with no regard to board integrity. (And since the message to me included the word "pumper", I imagine that this post will likely be deleted as well.)
I was going to put this up yesterday, but... computer issues.
The day ended with a bearish candle - shooting star - that is rarely violated. If it is violated, price finishes higher, that would be a pretty bullish sign. A finish inside the candle, would also be bullish. I would not be surprised with a lower close, but am hoping that the candle gets rejected.
P.S. I know that I've said that I don't pay much attention to candles, but to that let me just add this: In the markets, especially in technical trading, things always happen a certain way, except when they don't. I don't pay much attention to candles, except when I do. I just rely more on other indicators for the most part.