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Quoting from the incredible movie, "Trading Places":
Looking good, Lewis.
Feelin good, Billy Ray.
Nice gap up into breakout territory this morning. It would be nice (imo) if we retraced to fill the gap and then close this afternoon at this level or higher. This has the markings of a very nice run.
Still around Beta. Just sittin back watching you guys do all of the heavy lifting. She's obviously in good hands. Thanks to everybody for all the hard work, by the way.
Over $2 will kick the door open. It is setting up nicely.
You said it, Richie. This has been a long, but not unpleasant ride.
This is still a great board full of great contributors.
Wishing everyone a happy, safe and massively prosperous 2017!
Denny,
Thanks for taking this on. I would like to ask about the projects in Detroit, their status and look ahead with respect to plans.
A quick comment on the technicals:
We basically filled the secondary pennant and knocked on the door to the lower edge of the primary pennant all with one tiny trade. Seems like a good trade to me, except that it is so small as not to make it "tradable". But somebody did manage to get a few shares relatively cheap.
The bottom of the pennant is ~$1.19. If we fill the primary pennant up, it will take us until about April to fill it up. As I said earlier, the top of the pennant is in an area of weak resistance so I expect that if we can tap the top of the pennant, we'll likely break through, so that is what I am optimistic for.
That's it, other than to say that we were bound to touch the bottom of the pennant at some point, so I see this as inconsequential, at worst.
So a new year coming up on Sunday. Beyond that though is this with respect to the stock:
We are still nested in two pennants, one that will fill up about the middle of Oct and one that won't fill up until sometime next year. If the first one fills up before the pennant gets nullified by other causes, our new targets will be 1.70ish to the upside and 1.20ish to the down side. Me, being an optimist, thinks that if we fill this pennant up, we'll go to 1.70 and tickle that line two to three times and then break through. I just don't see the 1.70 price area to be that significant.
All the best in 5777 and may you all be blessed.
I thought my volume gauge on my computer was broke.
Y'all are (lowers voice two octaves, cranks volume up to eleventy) AWESOME.
and yeah - on the Detroit stuff.
You're right. There are two. One is nested mostly inside the other and the target you pointed out is also touching the top line of the primary pennant. We broke out of the secondary pennant on Friday. Plus... the bollies are starting to yawn and that's another bullish indicator. On the other hand - long tails like the one today are rarely violated but when they are, that's good so let's hope we can pop out over today's tail. Signs of a bit over bought. Overall, I'd say the table is as set as it can get for good news later.
Funny? How?
What are you saying?
Funny how?
So I decided to put this up because nobody else in posting and you need to be entertained.
This is how, with the help of alchemy and sorcery, I see things:
We're at another inflection point and right now, the main indicators are not promising. This thing is at a point where it could easily change directions and resume the move up, but if we get too deep into a down trend, it could easily be another long one - best guess: October before another 'ideal' setup to start back up and that means recovering the same ground again, but damaged by another sell-off.
Firm support, as I see it is at a buck if we continue to move lower. It would benefit confidence in the company if we don't get there. If we break support at that level then I think we should be prepared for another, "here we go again," type scenario.
"Are you not entertained?!" Maximus Decimus Meridius.
We're back to a decent set up for another positive move. Need to beat yesterday's high (with a respectable close - 15 min or better, probably) for the push to take effect.
For what it's worth - the Harami candle a couple of days back seems to have been on target for telegraphing the reversal.
Here is a scenario that I think has a fairly good shot at playing out: We stay in this general area for the week and we get a Harami forming on the weekly chart. The monthly chart still has plenty of potential energy and the weekly looks like it would benefit from testing the extent of today's range, rejecting the low at least one more time, and then making a run next week. Of course a move up from here is certainly possible, it's just that participants in the auction, I think, would appreciate some confirmation that the low has been definitively put it.
If we want to establish the next higher level, it is my belief that we need to hit and hold $1.44.
So today's candle is an inside candle or Harami. A strategy traders would use to trade this would be to trade the break of either the high or the low. It is also often seen as a reversal candle, as well. My personal interpretation is that it is fairly bullish with the caveat that the BB bands are still bearish. If I were trading it, I would probably go with a break to the upside. Not a recommendation. Just thinking out loud.
The problem I have with moves like this - this cycling of fairly major moves - is that investors, as opposed to traders, won't see this as any type of serious place to park their money. It's great for traders, but it destroys investor confidence in the company. By investor's, I mean new money investors. The ones who are committed based on the DD of the people on this board, will gut it out, I think. But what, again my opinion, this company needs is some committed new money investors who see this as a good long term investment. There is nothing, I would submit, to give them that confidence at this point. Perhaps a bit of interest shown by the company to foster that type of attitude would be a good thing. Sadly, there is no demonstrated interest in doing that.
By way of a weak defense of what I said a couple of days ago, let me say this:
I said that we were once again entering a setup that favored a move back up. Since then, share price has dropped fairly dramatically. When I said what I said, there was some indication that we were once again entering a pretty dramatically oversold type condition. I stand with that, and I'd like to stress, that we continue to become more and more dramatically oversold that would have supported a consolidation more than a sell off and this indicates to me that this is a forced move down.
One significant indicator, the bollie bands, is the only one that I rely on that indicates a continuing worsening condition. Everything else points toward a predominately bullish future.
That's the way I see things right now: overall condition is still favoring a largely positive outlook.
Technically, we are back in a position that is more favorable to be able to support a strong move up again. We need a close above ~1.60 and with the right tail wind...
Overall, technicals are strongly net positive.
So I went back and re-read this post, (#7269) but in the post you pointed out that Lehman managed to evidently successfully argue that the fault was in the origination, but not in the packaging. I'm actually dumbfounded that they could prevail with this argument when the packaging of the loans started out as an effort to spread the risk, but ended up as an effort to not only mask the risk, but to massively understate the risk by making it so hard to discover the actual risk that it turned into a money making monster once they started issuing derivatives on the packages that had the effect of exponentially understating the risk yet further. And that was even exacerbated by the ratings agencies issuing ratings that were based on fiction. If Lehman succeeds in this, they managed to pull off another fast one of epic proportions, in my opinion.
And another consideration is this, I suppose and that is the value that there is in eliminating this as an ongoing open sore.
A couple of points:
It looks like, as far as Syncora is concerned, that if this is successful, this lets Lehman (a major player in what was described as rampant and institutionalized fraud) totally off the hook, and...
It looks as if Lehman is doing what Syncora lawyers should have been doing for a long, long time; and that is putting pressure to get this case resolved.
This is all my opinion obviously, but it seems odd that Lehman is the party seeking to rap this up and not Syncora. It kind of calls into question how serious the Syncora legal team has been in this matter all along.
This settlement wouldn't even cover the legal fees in a case like this if the Syncora legal team was dedicated any time in it over the last ten years.
We'll see how this plays out, and this is certainly strategy on the part of Lehman, but I have to say that, taking this on face value, I am disappointed in the legal team for our side.
I'm gonna put these two tweets up. There is no context or links so I don't even know what it means totally. I'm putting it up because someone here may know something... perhaps. The implication in the tweets seems significant, but without context, I don't really know even what it means:
crossdefault ?@crossdefault Jul 22
$SYCRF *SYNCORA GUARANTEE:PACT RELATED TO GREENPOINT MORTGAGE FUNDING
crossdefault ?@crossdefault Jul 22
$SYCRF *SYNCORA SETTLEMENT SUBJECT TO FINAL DEFINITIVE DOCUMENTATION
That's it. That's all there is.
Cool to have regular volume (reasons are obvious). Feels like a real company, nonetheless.
I'm gonna say Tuesday will be the next really good setup. Might happen Monday, but Tuesday will probably be more realistic. That's what I'm seeing in the smoke of the burning yak tail, anyway.
Good weekend all.
Hose - it's an interpretation based on trying to predict where the technicals suggest this might wind up by projecting the technicals into the future(in other words - a guess). It isn't, I don't think an uneducated guess. That range I am looking at is based on a convergence of a couple of fibonacci numbers that come close to converging in that area. I only mentioned the range because other people analyzing the fundamentals of where this might go to have mentioned that six -ish area as a potential target price based on value they've extracted from the numbers. I hope this answers you question.
Right. I appreciate your perspective and I agree that there is just a lot of pent up potential energy in this thing that has barely been tapped yet. By way of comparison, when this thing made it's mad dash to 3.80, it did so from setup that, in my opinion, had between 1/4 and 1/3 the potential that yet remains in this setup and I think it approximates the take we are getting from the fundamentals that the others on the board have analyzed. So if we were lucky enough to have the potential turn into actual, we are looking at something in a range anywhere from about $6.50 to $8.50. Of course nothing like that is ever assured and it is even possible that none of it is, but the correlation with the fundamentals is intriguing, I think.
Several years ago, I was studying a technical analyst's philosophy and he called those areas that led into and out of overbought or oversold areas, zoom zones. They were areas where if a stock started moving, instead of petering out, the moves would typically be (for lack of a better word) violent. So while most people would tend to see the move as finished, a day trader would look a little deeper and see if some money could be taken off the table. Anyway, the move the other day, up to $1.90 was made from a zoom zone. We are out of that area now. If the technicals hold, moves for the next while may be more orderly.
Also, I looked over at MarketWatch and they have the 52 week high at $1.90.
So I was debating saying anything about this for fear of putting the Lonestar hex on this thing, but I decided that I'll roll the dice and see what happens.
We are at another one of those places that would seem to suggest we are entering into an overbought type situation. The truth about these areas though, is that in addition to seeming to indicate overbought, that they also can indicate a move into a new leg up, wherein, because of supply demand pressures, overbought flips to oversold. Even though one might think that the big spike up fell off because of being overbought, that wasn't really the case. If you look back at the May (ish) time frame, that is the place we are at once again. There was an opportunity then to trigger the next leg up, but instead we fell off a bit and consolidated. We are there again, but the difference this time, is that the overall setup this time, is more favorable for several different reasons: If you knock on the door enough times, it will eventually open; that we consolidated and held means that we have found a floor for value here and that value is at least here or higher; and finally, moving averages and other indicators would suggest that we are out of a reflexive area (characterized by tops and bottoms of moves) and we are in an area now where more orderly moves generally take place.
That's my interpretation of the technicals here, and I hope I'm right. I would welcome richierichstl, and any other technical players' interpretation and where I may be miss reading the picture. I'm always eager to learn.
This just seems strange to me. A generally thinly traded stock that has two back to back pretty impressive finishes, together with two bearish candle tails, the second being inside of the previous one. If I were to say what I think it is, I'd say it looks forced. Typically though, an inside day signifies confusion or indecision.
Beats me. Chart is still positive with great potential.
Well at least it works for you sometimes. I still haven't made that work yet. BTW - You're also da man.
Denney & Beta:
Thanks for making the picture clearer. Certainly makes more sense than over half being short.
I appreciate all y'all, and everybody does.
Too true.
I agree with everything you say and I know that the same rules don't apply to the non-retail side. That said, up until a few years ago anyway, the shares could be fictional on the short side, but they still had to exist on the cover side. Maybe even that has changed, in which case it just means it's even more rigged than before. But we knew that, right?
And the real truth is that insider trading takes place all of the time. It is even legal for D.C. politicians to engage in insider trading. An attempt to subject politicians to the same insider trading rules as everyone else failed just a couple of years ago. And ways to circumvent the insider trading restrictions are more sophisticated every day.
Yes, and in my mind anyway, to cover, they'd have to come up with actual shares. That will be easier to do when the exchange shares start trading, but in the interim, there will be a lot of pressure to keep this thing down while the same shares are transacted over and over, in order to cover. So far, as indicated in your post, only a tiny fraction have been able to cover so far. All I have to say is, "come on squeeze." It wouldn't upset me in the least to see some shorts get burnt. But reality is that these guys are in the big leagues so they have the infamous system on their side.
If I'm remembering correctly, and it's definitely a possibility that I'm not, I seem to remember short interest being at 53%. If that's true, much of that would have to be naked so a squeeze would hurt pretty the shorts pretty bad. Like I said, I don't really understand it. You and I can't even short this, so that is a whole different level of participation.
It's not like I understand everything about stock manipulation, or anything, but it sure seems that there is a concerted effort to knock this thing down every time it tries to stand up. If, as was pointed out a couple of days ago, the the short interest is over 50%, then it wouldn't be that hard to imagine that the shorts would be feeling some distress about the possibility of a squeeze triggering off. With a (still as I would think) not a lot of loose shares out there to cover with, shorts would have their backs to the wall in the event of a squeeze. They'd likely be feeling the squeeze already.
Maybe somebody could set me straight on my thinking about this, if I'm getting this wrong.
This is admittedly a stretch, but the hint, if there is one is "originator" and not packager.
I don't like that mega bearish tail, but I agree that the technicals are good. Violating that tail tomorrow would be a huge positive, imo.
Interesting that it appears to be coming out of the blue like this. Of course we know it isn't, but I'm also certain that many of us would like to experience what it must be like to be able to act on the same information that the people who are obviously acting on now.