Trying ;)
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Yea, sorry about that ... was a rant ... I'll reframe!
So I was watching nasdaq100 mini ... it traded over holiday. Actually closed at 12819? Up 130? Thinking that should be the open but open didn't change from friday??? So while it may be up 50 is really down 50 but up 50 from Friday. Strange lol.
And I forgot tomorrow a Holliday and market closed ... enjoy the extra day@!@
You don't have to wait for oil prices to transcends into other markets -- its here!
First, people dont seem to realize "Oil" is more than gas and diesel. ... more that jet fuel and heating oil ... more than asphalt for roads, PVC, plastics, and synthetics ... its used in about everything we use! And, of course, transportation cost and adided material costs has to be factored into final products = inflation. And that is one aspect, and a big one. But it's really more complicated.
Oil also suffers from same supply chain issues, acquiring needed materials, the same lack of workers, and added production costs as well as hostile political atmosphere. It certainly isn't just turn a few valves and we have all the oil we desire. Many operators suffered huge losses when oil hit neg prices, crazy as that was ... some just didn't survive, other still in recovery. Yea, and it didn't help with oil leases you can't drill but that is more future issue even though it has to start today. I know the KXL and green lobby certainly hurting but is just part of picture.
I do find it strange they are looking at restarting idle refineries to lower gas prices when that has no effect on oil price/supply that determines gas price -- just can't produce more gas without more oil so seems silly ... but I'm not surprised, just dumfounded.
Wish I was in green lhere, but long way from $29. I too am green in another though, I just have biger chunk here because GTBIF has a great foundation! Great company doing it right!
I think what you're saying is, since we broke above and outside the downward wedge, we entered an upward wedge ... provided it's not a dead cat bounce or a bull trap. I dont think it is biut i also didn't find the data points to build an upward wedge yet! Not yet ... may need another day or two. The reason I say it's bullish is it finished at high for day <and> after market finished even higher high of day... that and it's a weekend and it beat the fear of holding over weekend -- shows confidence! We are still in a sensitive fragile market and so won't take a lot of bad news to flip it to down <OR> much good news to ratchet up higher. I think next week will be tell tai but momentum will be driven by news!
Charts positively bullish especially going into the weekend. So a couple of thoughts.
1) inflation remains a concern but it has leveled as has oil prices ... I would call this oil push inflation with some supply chain issues ...supply down or demand up cost goes up. Yes it is a concern but oil could easily flip with increases in supply
2) Another concern (or non-concern) out there is interest rates, particularly interest rate increases. Fed rate in the United States averaged 5.44 percent for period from 1971 to 2022, reaching an all time high of 20 percent in March of 1980 and a record low of 0.25 percent in December of 2008. Prim rate is arounf 300 basis points (3%) above Fed rate. I would note the 20% high ... think it actually hit 21%+ on one day.
And only reason it's a 5.44 average is the last decade of near zero rates ... people freaking because it was raised to .9 percent is laughable ... we're 4.54% below 5.44 average! Why I said non- concern. That said people don't understand interest rates anyways
3) I find it odd, that the COVID shutdowns (economic shoutdown) and the equality market flourished ... there was a crash at the beginning but it recovered quickly an then some (a lot actually). Then in re-opening and economic boom equalities stalled out. We should have seen the opposite! Sure, you could say because it poped so hard during lockdown that a correction was inevitable--not wrong! And all the government spending proped up economy during lockdown-- not wrong. But the point is there was probable overreacting selling on economic recovery and fear of the future (ya, can't predict the future) but that's how we operates -- "fear and greed".
3) Resession concern. Well to be frank, a resession is where demand slows, thus supply slows, and thus the economy slows. This is what the fed wants to bring down inflation ... and it will. But fixing supply chain issues and increasing oil production will also increase supply and bring inflation down ... but Gov has taking that off the table (sadly as is best option) so elected option of puting breaks on economy and possible to point of resession. But the breaks have only been tapped and I doubt they even know what results will be, rather only what they desire. We really need to elect people that have an understanding of economics -- doesn't exist based on their action!
Ok, I ranted, but, yes, we don't usually have corrections/down markets this long ... reason not clear ... and isuch downs usually followed by a strong rebound, even if a slightly less bear rebound. This seems protracted!
Well, I would call that fantastic actually ... however. I cant get a grip on why the stock price keeps tumbling. ...lost 60% book but still not willing to sell ... guess thats faith!
Way behind schedule I would say. Schedule slips happens but this ilooking like a lack of experience... they may be moving towards goal, which is good, but they're not hitting it as goals should be annual timeframe vice "eventually ". I do hear ya loud and clear.
Only some? Lol. I do regret not playing this as it step down as even small gains are better then big loss. I do suspect we're near a temp bottom (temp as bigger may be in future) ... historically, that would seem logical ... but these are not logical times!
You're depressing me lol. There are a couple things to think about.
1) where else is there to invest money? Maybe commodities on inflation? There really isn't an alternative to equity market at this time.
2) Continues with 1) investors make money investing and can't stay in cash long = they have to make money sometime!
3) Continuing with 2) if you don't make more than inflation, you are really loosing money. Cash/bonds are not keeping up with inflation! Think in terms of inflated dollars.
4) even in bear markets, there are "runs". And even in the worst downturn, there is always something that's booming!
5) indexes over time have always recovered as index direction is up
6) As messed up as everything is, you can dismiss the first 5!
Ok, back to my depression :P
Sometimes it's good to just watch and try to find a trend but in this market it brutal!
How you make out? Tomorrow looks like a better day, buy only because TGIF!
That's the question for sure ... thought we were looking a little like bottom behavior but maybe just a calm before the storm?its not bottomless! But this market is tough one -- I believe it's over reaction, as shown by many institutionsal investors ( like buffet) buying sprees. -- they see value out there! Even if not the bottom, the top undoubtedly higher that here.
Banks and lending institutions are interesting. I don't recall my credit card interest fluctuating like fed ratesinterest ... think it still 12% for me??? And not paying 1% on savings/CDs??? But banks have to have borrowers to make money for sure. Most lending BDC and RETS are leveraged ... make on spread/delta between short rates and long rates. so if I'm 10x leveraged on 1% that a little less the 10% as have to hedge with swaps etc to protect. In falling rates they make but loose on rising rates. Example, they make 7% loan at 6% (making 1% but rates fall to 1% then that's 6% ...NAV on thoes assets go up. But if rates went up to 7% that loan makes zip but like I said they hedge with swaps. I remember a millionaire that could but not wanting to pay off his mortgage because interest was considerably less than borrow rate. Anyway Financials are highly regulated and completed but they make $$$. I think the only example I can think of was credit uninion crises. Seems they were prevented from making loans over 12% when interest rates were much higher so many closed! But in low interest like now many load agreements are labor rates +x% so when interest rates rise they still make x%. Ofcouse as interest rates go up default rates go up so is another risk. I lived through times when prime rates exceed 10% with consumabove that! Rates much above that! So this 50 basis point panic at these low rates is a joke
I'm aware ... long term holder here ... was close to $100 in 2017? ... had good dividends then! Has a ways to go for all time highs,and good dividends again but if oil keeps going the way it is, we may see it breaking the all time high, and yea, maybe dividends too! There's zero presure globally, nor in the US, to increase oil production/supplies.
The release from the strategic petroleum reserves is a drip. To be sure, its more about money as average cost was $29 a barrel. Gov doesnt mention this hugh revenue but they'll put up a political fight for budget when it comes time to replace, hopefully when oil is cheap again. ??
I was in market back then, but didn't invest directly in dot coms ... I was computer scientist and couldn't see investing in a simple web page. I was looking at a new company that seemed to have a head on their sholders, reinesting capital and more then doubling y/y. I didn't invest in that as dot come hit and I still lost 75% in my growth mutual funds. That. Amazon would have been a great investment!!!
I asked friends why they were investing in dot coms ... "cuz they keep going up" was answer and even tried to fund me into developing a dot com. To me, dotcom was another junkbond was another crypto. Many Dotcoms were nothing more then a web page with advertising links and then do an IPO on that -- crazy stuff! But it was a hot trend/fad and like all fads due to fade ... but there were a few that actually had something behind them ... Google, Amazon, eBay, priceline ... but hey were exception.in the class. Now. There may be some money pit companies today but nothing like most of the dotcoms were.
What I find is odd, it with the lockdown and shutdown economies (I'm in honolulu and saw waikiki as a ghost town!) The market blossomed during pos lockdown ecconomy but with the recovery it stalled... makes no sence! Plus institutional are buyers here ... Buffet going all in but were still stalled out. Not what I expected. I was out of market during most of covid and missed out as constant belief of crash but jumped in on recovery and, well, was basically a bust for me so far.
Anyway, I see the 70s as more of what is happening today. Politicians not doing what is needed -- knows nothings yet not listening to thoes that do. Today, its the supply issues they don't want to fix ... supply chain, border, ecconomy.... Even oil is simular ... they don't want to pump = price hikes and gas lines (not seeing lines yet but demand outstrips supply so will.) High inflation like today. Radicals were hipies then (or maybe we're just dealing with older hippies now?).. Commune poped up like todays homeless villages... etc .... If history repeats i think we're in the 70s ... certainly lots of similarities.
Well, I believe we'll see a little pop in QQQ/TQQQ tomorrow but only because Monday is over lol. GLTY!
In the rules of supply and demand, the only way prices going down is if supply increases or demand decreases. Demand not going to decrease any time soon and can expect it to go up as more and more people go back to office.and less work at home. For supply, it could increase but dont see any movement in that area. Some even say oil say oil could double from here ... $10 gas although less then 50% of oil becomes gas. Based on OXY earnings at this level, and it continues for an extended period of time, OXY is outright gold mine! But it is scarry how much OXY buffet owns for many reasons!
I think you have to provide example of why lower interest "didn't work" as indeed it does as cheap money to invest does jump start the economy working and, likewise, raising interest rates tightening the money supply and has opposite effect. Simularly, an overheated ecconomy raises Inflation and a cooler economy lowers inflation rate. But there are many other factors that influence the ecconomy and problem is all those other factors as it's certainly not an overheated economy causing inflation but clearly supply issues=simple supply and demand problem.
To lower price/inflation, either supply has to increase (fix supply issues) or demand has to decrease. It would be better to fix supply issues, but nothing is being done there -- they clearly are choosing to decrease demand (by stomping on the ecconomy). There is a third option, do nothing and live with inflation. There can be many other causes for inflation (decreased dollar buying power) but IMO its supply issues here.
Well I droped my subscription so only public replies now ... couldn't really justify it. Anyway I have high hopes here especially since the rest of market kicked my A big time. But app paper losses and just have to wait for recovery which is way market is. So my hope is here right now as rest of market is pitiful.
Well, I have neitherv bought nor sold in this market for awhile. So guess I'm guessing I'm long now. So losses I mention are just paper losses. I had thought about just bitting it and make them permanent losses and then kicking back and waiting. Problem is a fear of doing that on a market pop and just being the fool buy high sell low. My cost here is like $65 and now in 20s so it's pot odds. A 10% drop at $65 is 6.50 per share loss, but at 27 its only 2.70 pps loss. But only truely a I sell.. what happened is I should havevsold for a small gain but held instead, greatly I guess. I would have continuecto play this for small gains on way down ... was plan anyway. So a lot of should of, could of, would of, but didn't. Only plan now is jump in deeper on rebound but that's not going to happen for awhile. But I know long term market is up and have to look at this as long term ... and I do have fair amount of cash for rebound that I don't want to put into play yet ... should be good when it rebounds but don't expect that soon. And I droped my subscription here so just public replies.. So that's my full status and disclosers..discloses...
Kind of applies to me but I'm not dependant on 401k yet . good thing cuz this is humongous losses, not just here, but all across the board ... depressing!
OXY wow! They're kicking and not even bothering to take names!! Nice job!
I'm here ... just don't have anything to post. But I think I'm waiting for bottom ... not sure this is it but hope so!
Yea I gave up paid so I'm now limited. I wasn't using it enough to justify it
Yea, that's is an new relationship with Fed and treasury... we have no track record to go on.
So the banks put reserves into Fed for which member banks can borrow (Fed rate). the reason for the reserves is to prevent a run on banks (bank crash); however the percentage of reserves and fed rate are historic way the fed controls money supply and thus economy [there is scary part in political apointee vs member banks on board but is diferent problem, sort of]. Anyway, when they control money supply, low rates expand and tightening rate contracts which is why it effects market. But enter QE in 2008.
We know 2008 was banking crises, but another little know event is that 2t of tresuries bonds were cashed in and the tresury couldnt cover (risk of foreign ownership of tresurery bonds). Anyway Hyperinflation would have occured if new mony was created so QE was born = since It wasn't treasury money but fed reserve money, it wasnt new money so effect on inflation was minimal. QE was expanded further by fed under buying US bonds (loans) to cover $T of covid spending. Guess that worked cuz market rocketed when it should of crashed. But the thing is that fed money is not gov money/treasury but peoples savings and eventually everything from 2008 needs to be reversed, a reverse QE.
While its true the fed could just print $30T of new money and pay off all debt. However, that would greatly devalue dollar, a can that been kicked down the road but time to pay that piper is comming as there in no other way to pay the debt. And.if interest rates rise high enough, well could force it as tresury can't pay interest on national debt. That would be the great American reset!!!
I believe you are saying is a higher then expected interest hike would send markets down (however there is a thought that a higher rate is better for inflation) ... and that the 50 basis points is already priced in. Therefore, a little dip in AM followed by rise the rest of day (news already priced in so not worst news sod baring worse news rises). Either way you called it! Congrats!!!!
Agree! But its bigger than just supply chain! In the global world of things, seems US took a position of developing tech and leaving manufacture for elsewhere but that's comming to bite wether chips, meds, or anything not USA produced. Our bigest import countries are also our bigest export countries... just one out of place involves impact! It's been building for centuries. There is truth in the more complicated a system is the more there is that can wrong!
Yea I'm aroundv 50% paper loss and on a tone of shares in several accounts. . At some point I'll need to buy to "average up" to try to break even but in 3 accounts 100% vested (one account was only $500 though that i used for crypto). So thoes accounts, well cant average. Bigger accounts i can but not where i really want to make money for tax reasons. So, just not sure when tthat averaging up needs to start as seems super low now! TQQQ is kicking me A for sure! I know the long term trend has shown to be always up ... may be a very long wait!
I grew up working the fields in my youth ... you were paid well considering! I learned to work hard so no complaints as that was more valuable then pay!!! Back on topic, I sure do hate this market right now!!! Hear analyst say it's tax deadlines ... where they come up with this stuff baffles me!!!
Not CE but ... 3D Printing Amorphous Metals - 3D Printing
https://3dprinting.com/news/3d-printing-amorphous-metals/
Question would be how LQMT would plays into this? 3D printing is certainly a wave of the future that is here and now ... and stronger lighter ... what am I missing?
Glad you yook the gain! No plans but it is tax day :( ...
Looks like you may make your money back today! Congrats again ... in advance!
I would like to see it rocket! But up and down she goes and where it goes nobody knows! Market volatile for sure. But we believe inflation numbers are not going to be good ... how bad determines direction baring other news.
Yea I don't get concerned of <100pt on futures because they can swing either way. But more them 100? yea, I just know that will go. Dont know why I don't hedge as much any more ... lazy?
Wow, yea, what a Rollercoaster ride and it did close green!
Yea, didn't last though and now red.
In that case we should be busting through resistance. I would rather it try resistance then hovering at support ... but that action does indicate a bottom/top and they seldom hold long. We'll see if 95% are correct!
My thoughts too!
Agree! Hoping to break above resistance this week ... that is what would be really nice!!!
I said I wasn't happy with how slow it was progressing ... yea it took forever to get CE removed and that delayed things. But they have no control outside forces, especially when it come to Gov expediency. We're still waiting on bills passes and repassig to get signed off in MJ world. Still, the game plan is progressing and that's what really counts!