Trying ;)
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In other words, buy around 30, sell around 31 as it stands now ... BTW that is still scalping? But eventually it will break out of this range (volatility) and that is when you say "buy the piss out of SQQQ" Note that gaining 1% every other day is still over 100% a year! Just saying!
Well 26.80 buy didn't hit ... tomorrow maybe but I'll put in for 26.60? Thoughts?
Ok, I'll go into inflation further as that is the issue. In a nutshell, in lay terms inflation occures when the value/supply of money (for number of reasons) decreases and thus prices go up. The big question is what is cause? Economists classify as cost push inflation and demand push inflation (and a subset stagflation).
Demand push is where the demand for goods is greater than supply where unemployment is low and economy is booming. It can be argued supply chain issues and lockdown, in part, caused this inflation by raising scarcity. This seems to be inflation they are fighting. As long as unemployment is below full employment (around 6%) demand remains high cuz got money to buy. So either supply increases or demand has to decrease but gov tries to decrease demand by cooling the economy tightening money supply (interest rates and higher bank reserves which decreases money supply).
Cost push, simply put, the cost to produce goes up. This can be wage push (higher wages means cost to produce goes up -- labor is usually the majority of costs). But other costs like energy, raw materials, cost to borrow each has effect. Getting supply cost down is tough, face it, nobody or entity (business) likes giving up income. Price controls don't work because they don't address costs which then means subsidies which hardly ever goes away. Gov could allow pumping more oil to bring down energy costs but wont. Thus,, because of relationship of supply and demand, gov can usually just effect demand so where concentration is, but this is a double bladed swords or a ballancing act (cut the ecconomy to cut inflation) so it means bringing on recessionary presures. Companies tighten their belts to decrease costs but this can also means less supply ... higher interest means means less borrowing and higher concentration on more profitable areas--net decrease in economy.
One last area that's needs a look is gov spending. It's a component of GDP for a reason. Gov spending adds to money supply. Your not going to convince Gov to pull back, but the need too. Printing money brings down the value of dollar and certainly adds to inflation. I believe this is major cause of inflation we have but certainly MMT would disagree -- certainly doesn't mean they are right!
So the point of me bring this up is to say inflation and impacts are far from over and i would say they havent or barely started. The Fed is still applying the breaks and will continue till the recession hits along with everything that comes along with it. The only question is if you believe it will be a soft landing.
That doesn't mean stocks go up or down cuz they'll certainly do both. But I don't see a continuous climb out till we climb out of the hole we're in ... 2024?
He says "The rising stock market amid a barrage of negative economic headlines has trapped a lot of bearish investors" but he proceds to totally ignors the barrage of negative economic news. I believe in being optimistic but ignoring is dangerous! He basing everything on inflation comming under control and thus the fed easing rates. The assumption based on inflation comming under control is probably correct, but the key is still inflation comming under control. Right now, inflation is not under foxtrot and thus the fed will be raising rates in May. Rolling recession, soft landing or hard landing ... it all still a recession economy I don't think we can ignor!
Smart man as you'll be there for fishes breakfast! Best time == good luck!
Probably should have bought in again today ... opportunity knocks, you just have to jump on it!
I remember thoes days! I had 396 Chevy that sucked gas ... was a fun car but a ticket magnet. So next was 455 olds and was a little better on gas, but still cost $5 a day just to go to school so I parked it and took the bus. As a student was $5 a month for bus pass. Never siphon gas but bus was a pain and time consuming due to schedules and transfers. I was starving student! Couldn't get welfare but I did try. One day , homeless and starving, I found a hook and some fishing line and caught a fish and cooked on open fire -- I'll never forget as that was a life saver. I have other stories for sure. Today's youths DONT understand nor appreciate what a tough life we may of had. No doubts, that tough life drove me finish school and want a better life that I've had!
Yea I should have bought the dip in T while holding S ... I'll catch the next one. But you are right you can hold T for long periods and S is only good for short term dips.
Yea, however analysts will say "but but but it's not as bad as expected". I often wonder what these analysts really think????
That's why I sometimes hold T and S at same time. But, I dont mind holdingT for months while my tolerance for holding S is about a week. It does seems crazy to make money on S while waiting on T but it seems to work for me. I'm not holding T but I can buy in less than I sold for and that's always a thought.
Hum wetecable is a word? Should have been "were able". Anyway good luck! IMO it's much better to get stuck in T than S like i am. Sometimes it is just best to minimize loss and make it back another day! Nobody is right OR wrong in today's market! It just luck!!!
Yea, I have boatload too but unfortunately l sold my T cheap last week and then bought S high so I'm just in the money. I do think based on top/botom behavior that there is room for S to run higher -- how high remains the question???? ???? ????
Hope you wetecable to dump at another profit! Daytrade warning?
The N100 has been hitting resistance going up and hits support going down. It needs a catalyst to send it either way so right now eyes are on 8:00 Am CPI data release. Recession fears still out there so the CPI data needs to be impressive to send N100 higher and i dont believe it can do that. We'll see!
The problem with using golden/death crosses is they can be lagging. They indicate market direction but we watch this and already know T went from sub 20s to 27 -- nothing new. The techs will tell you when two trend lines meet, it will either go up or down (either rejects or breakout) so there are other metrics to look at. I prefer the MACD ... its the same thing but over shorter timeframes ... 200day average is too long and interestingly, the MACD is showing a possible decline even on the chart you provided. We can talk top/bottom behavior, but really, in the end, it boils down to market sentiment which is why it is so reactive to news.
The fed "has no intention of cutting rates" probably says it all. Classical economic theory = inflation is caused by overheated economy so tighten money (raising interest rates) to cool economy and control inflation. Problem is there are many types and causes of inflation -- it's basically a supply/demand imbalance. So the question is more if *this* inflation really caused by an overheated economy??? Or perhaps Fed/Treasury induced QT money supply? Wage push? Supply chain? ... if the cure doesn't fit the problem then it's simply not a cure. Either way, it's not good for economy ... and thats mean not good for equities nor bonds. Things to think about going forward!
Yea, S didn't do what I expected either. Looks like I sold my T low and bought S high. Now I'll have to wait it out and see what Monday brings. My overall assessment hasnt changes and i think T going down. But cash is never a bad place to be so you did good!
Well it had a harder day then expected, down a bit. But maybe that should have been expected after killing it did yesterday ... or maybe people were in good spirits with supper bowl, who knows. But it doesn't change my assessment of SQQQ at inflection point and bad jobs numbers tomorrow. Have a great weekend everyone!
Well the TWO acount have both as imore hedging uncertainty till sell what's loosing. But I talked myself into S is winner so now all out of T ... we'll see if I made right call. I'm sure I'll be back into T again when i become uncertain but S. It's not a bad strategy.
I looked at some of the charters (technicals) and they are saying we're at a pivot point. The thing I don't like about charters is. if the lines tell the wrong story they call it a breakout and simply redraw the lines. That said there is some logic behind it. The reasons it makes sense now is 1) we had a good run and the probability of a pull back increases -- corrections happen... and thats also what charters are showing. And 2) the fundamentals just don't look good (less earning, labor issues, inflation, debt, credit crunch, bank issues, layoffs,..). There has always been this technical vs fundamental rivalry but they seem to both be aligned to a down turn. Of course, there are also those, well call them gut level psychics, that say this time is different and sometimes they're right on the money. In the end there are no crystal balls, we just have to win more then we loose.. SOOOO, i have one account in SQQQ, one in TQQQ, rwo have both (in case I'm wrong on a downturn), and one mostly cash cuz I mess up alot lol.
Funny, I don't follow many but I decided to follow you only to find out I already did some time in the past...
Prediction is tomorrow going to be a big down day come close for most stocks ... because potentially bad news is comming Friday and markets are closed ... believe many don't want to be holding over this weekend. Just my opinion, but would mean SQQQ could be up big!
Yep, I jumped in. I think I saw bottom behavior (for S) and is now going to rise rather rapidly. Market bloated for what it is so has to come down a bunch. There just isn't good market news out there ... IMO bear run is over and bear going to roar (already started).
Yea. Sold some T and bought a bunch of S ... some trades didn't go through. Think I'll dump all my T depending on premarket and pick up more S. I believe we seen top behavior and now the market is falling fast.
I use edge so agree. I just dont like resetting it up after switching accounts. But it shows everything you need!
Lol. Yea, sign of sickness. It's a new quarter, and after a very good quarter, so a lot going on and it's just trying to sort it all out.
Thanks! Wonder if this is JHQTX, $15B, that uses put spread collars to maintain up/down window and reballances quarterly which just ended. I see this on stocks in their portfolio! I am curious on how you get your dark pool info as is, well dark.
Yea, looking like top behavior here! No telling which way it will break to but probability leans to down side ... Friday news will be kicker!
It such someone boosted them ... we're in front in safe, but did you ever try to sell them? Friend took some to "we buy gold" and they offered him 50% of spot. So he sold on eBay till buyer said he never received them, even with signature required he lost. Best to keep your gold in thoes gold dealer accounts. I don't care cause I have gold for Armageddon--not here yet! Platinum is the one that gets me ... you would think that's through the roof!
So SQQQ looking like bottom behavior ... not sure which way it's going to break so watching to sell TQQQ and move. Every $3 move is 10%
Same 8:00 thing as msft!
What the heck happened at 8:00 ... looks like a big boy snaped up a bunch of stop loss shares!
I actually have medal in safe. I Kept it unlocked until i noticed someone had walked off with 100 silver dollars (but left gold and platinum). Anyways, i locked it and has been locked ever since because I lost the combo.
Think I just seen you on half the boards I'm checking ... keep up the good work!
Nice chart...
Well, always some surprises, but here we are with OPEC+ production cuts.
I hear ya! But i know Civil war usually starts with distrust of gov, untrusted voting, and the will of the people but unfortunately civil war typically brings the opposite adverse change = authoritarian regimes. We already have civil war festering but I think that is a couple years off and things can easily change. Yes, this would certainly make the case for SQQQ! It just not quite there yet but that could change fast ... certainly a watch!
Until then, there is an old saying "follow the money" or "smart money". To me, this says watch the in and out flows and right now there is a in flow into tech. This doesn't far will with SQQQ at the moment. But there is also a saying "the bigger they are the harder they fall". I have now doubt SQQQ will see this so June options may be a good call. I'm still holding off as want to see that bigger first!
Yea, that trump stuff is getting even crazier today, like civil war is about to start! Hoping it settles down over the weekend. But. That said. I don't know how it effects the financial markets if it does.
I don't know if it's today as rather bullish statement into a close on friday! And not seeing top or reversal behavior yet ... I'll wait for that signal. But your June QQQ puts probably good bet ... just think you could get them cheaper in coming days. A pivot could be tesla's earnings...
I will be but now isn't quite right ... have to wait for signal as bulls are making their run = when they run out of wind, I'm in.
Have to agree! But going with the flow not a bad thing. We all know S time is coming but this is very bullish for a Friday so not yet!
The real question is when is this all to happen?