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WAZH...sorry but I let my Stockcharts.com subscription lapse so they killed my custom charts.
Hope you and the gang are doing well. I still lurk a bit but have been focusing 120% on my day job and therefore trading little or none.
We were to busy buying more Neng Manny LOL
EDIT - I also recall WAHZ doing some flag waiving about the NENG Exchange Servicer Firewall months ago... good to see others are noticing too.
Chris...my comment really was not directed at you or anyone in particular..was just trying to point out that trading and investing becomes gambling when there is a monster unknown that can drive a stock to -0-. Therefore the risk/reward is not calculatable. JMO
NT - Hope this will not anger any holders of NT... it's more of a general comment using NT as the example. If there is a smoking gun..SEC investigation etc..why take a risk on being a star. This is like a guaranteed unknown. I just don't think these kind of plays are worth the risk reward...particularly if you are not already in it.
JMHO
Here is a list at 10/2001 that traded over 100 and were now under a $1 and ready for delisting at the time
http://www.forbes.com/2001/10/05/1005nasdaq_2.html
Got to be hundreds that got delisted.
Looking to feel smarter than I feel at the moment.. I was looking back at what I had originally proposed...that which fired up old Augieboo in the first place. I had proposed a channel of the same slope from the previous decade and suggested that it had shifted down from the big bust and may not return ...but...would ultimately grow at the same rate. Just don't now how I talked myself out of it right now? Augie was determined to incorporate more years than I had originally used. Dang this one was close! The Jan high just grazed the upper line. Lets hope the midpoint contains this move down like it did so many times in the previous decade.
Augieboos channel posted above looks like the winner for now. He's a sharp little doggie.
Bow wow...were you been Augie?
My whole portfolio is a POS...but the P stands for PILE. It contains one of every individual Piece_O_S around...all neatly stacked into one big Pile_O_S.
Hang in there friends... I share and feel your collective pain.
OT: Bull I accidentally let my paid subscription expire.. can't respond to PM... Sorry but I don't know the answer to your question.
OSIP.. If I was still a nutty day trader I'd be looking to short any pop up the first couple of minutes tomorrow. The best quick in/out shorts in the late 90's were always the biotech/pharma/cancer cure stories. Of course the exception to this was buyouts.
PS: Still loving this chat board... just been to busy to post much.
FNSR.. I am hanging on to mine too... Such a great little company but they have never made a dime of profit. Was just looking at the Bank of America analysis (Joe Wolf). Not calling for any profit until 2006 :(
Lets hope they perform better than they are at public relations. I am still hanging in there with a heavy position.
Wahz last week I was looking over NENG'S web site and their distribution units site too. There seems to be total shortage of any mention of EMC or their products. I wonder they have broken all ties with EMC and we just were not told.
YAHOO...impressive volume too James. I think you may be correct.
I think Linux is going to be just as hacked when it becomes mainstream. Hackers love a challenge.
OT: Ditto on Snow
James,
As a VOIP indusry insider...your thoughts on ITXC would be welcome. Good bad or otherwise.
Thanks
It's cool Wahz...time an a great strengthening economy are on our side!
$SOX >14%
What do you mean? Capone-Day?
WAHZ's Projected Channel - Daily View
Put in the upper channel line for perspective. Can take it out if you like. The main channel is built from the same lows as the monthly and weekly.
PPI Friday the 12th
Ranch...I think the Federal Reserve probably will want to see at least three months of solid job growth and signs of firming inflation before deciding to boost short-term interest rates.
IMHO
WAHZ... Was pointed out that there is a bug in one of the
dates on the long term charts posted in the board header.
Here they are again with problem corrected if you care to
repost. So far so good on the proposed channel :)
Monthly Version
Weekly Version
Four "Mays" ......between that and wahz's gaseous release, I guess it is fair game afterall!
LOL
Fellow Black Box traders... I generally would never post a paid for newsletter as that would be kind of uncool to the service. However, since this is a noteworthy analyst and he's calling this bottoming action... Here are the high points.
John Murphy 3:45 EST today.
BIG BOARD INDEXES MAY BE READY TO RESUME UPTRENDS -- NASDAQ MAY HAVE BOTTOMED WITH HELP FROM SOX AND INTEL -- BIOTECH AND REGIONAL BANK ETFS REACH NEW HIGHS
SMALL CAP LEADERSHIP... After consolidating throughout the month of February, it now looks like several of the major stock indexes are getting ready to resume their uptrends. And that rally is being led by smaller stocks. Chart 1 shows the S&P Small Cap Index having already broken out to a new recovery high (as did the S&P 500 MidCap Index). Chart 2 shows the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index having broken the resistance line in what looks like a "symmetrical triangle" which is usually a bullish pattern. Chart 3 shows the S&P 500 which has taken on the shape of an "ascending triangle" which is also bullish. [A symmetrical triangle shows two converging trendlines -- one rising and one falling. In an ascending triangle, the upper line is flat]. This suggests to me that new highs are also likely in the Dow and the NYSE Indexes. The Nasdaq may not reach a new high, but appears to have bottomed for now. That should give a short-term boost to the entire market. .
NASDAQ HAS BOTTOMED... The Nasdaq has been the weakest of the major stock averages. Even that technology-dominated index appears to be bottoming. First, the Nasdaq correction bounced off its December high (not shown here) at 2000. Short-term indicators like the RSI and MACD lines appear on the verge of turning higher. The 14-day RSI line is about to cross the 50 level. The daily MACD lines are the closest to turning positive in six weeks. I suspect the Nasdaq will exceed its 50-day average and its six-week down trendline in short order. The Nasdaq is getting some help from the biotech and semiconductor groups.
SOX MAY BE TURNING UP -- INTEL NEEDS TO CLEAR 30... New buying in the Semiconductor (SOX) Index is helping support the Nasdaq bounce. This week's SOX bounce off the 500 level has set up a short-term pattern of "higher lows" over the last two weeks and suggests that it's ready to attempt a rebound. A close over its (dashed) 20-day line would signal a rally to the upper Bollinger Band near 530. While several chip stocks have been bouncing of late, all eye's today are on Intel the group's big bellwether. Intel's mid-quarter update is due after tonight's close. Chart 6 shows Intel having recently broken chart support at the December low near 30. That now represents a key chart point. In order to negate that bearish signal, Intel needs a decisive close back over the 30 level. If it's able to do that, it will undoubtedly give a boost to the SOX Index and the Nasdaq -- and the rest of the market.
One more paragraph on the strong Biotechs that I left off.
Happy reading.
OT: I got an email from paypal saying that I needed to update my account... but I never had one to begin with. Reported it to them. I'd bet hundreds of people got nailed by that one, being dupped into supplying personal info.
Been looking over the FNSR results... do believe that these guys might even make a profit one quarter soon. FNSR has never made a profit I don't believe. That would be awesome... Go FNSR
Finisar Results
Total revenues in the third quarter of fiscal 2004 of $46.4 million were up 9% on a sequential basis from $42.8 million in the second quarter and 20% from $38.7 million in the third quarter of the prior year. Total revenues from the sale of optical subsystems of $40.7 million in the third quarter were up 12% on a sequential basis from $36.4 million in the second quarter and were up 28% from $31.9 million in the third quarter of the prior year. Sales of network test and monitoring systems of $5.7 million in the third quarter were down 11% on a sequential basis from $6.3 million in the second quarter and 17% from $6.8 million in the third quarter of the prior year.
"We saw strong demand within our optical subsystems business last quarter driven by double-digit sequential growth for both LAN/SAN and Metro applications. Based on continuing strength in our incoming orders and backlog we believe that we should see a sequential increase in revenues next quarter, both in optics as well as network tools," said Jerry Rawls, Finisar's President and CEO. "In addition, we expect to pick up two months of operating results from the acquisition of Honeywell's VCSEL Optical Products Business which should add to our top and bottom line."
OPERATING RESULTS
The Company reported a net loss of $15.5 million, or $0.07 per share, for the third quarter of fiscal 2004, compared to a net loss of $32.6 million, or $0.15 per share, in the second quarter and a net loss of $32.8 million, or $0.17 per share, in the third quarter of fiscal 2003.
The Company reported a gross profit of $9.0 million, or 19.4% of revenues, during the third quarter of fiscal 2004, up from a gross profit of $6.1 million, or 14.2% of revenues, in the second quarter and a gross profit of $3.2 million, or 8.2% of revenues, in the third quarter of fiscal 2003. The increase in gross profit from the second quarter was primarily due to the use of material previously classified as slow-moving and obsolete inventory.
Interest expense, net of interest income, of $2.5 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2004 includes a non-cash charge of $1.0 million associated with the amortization of discount on our older convertible notes as well as a full quarter of interest expense associated with the issuance of $150 million in new convertible notes in the second quarter of fiscal 2004.
Amortization of acquired developed technology, amortization of purchased intangibles, other acquisition costs and the cumulative effect of a change in accounting related to the adoption of SFAS 142 consist of merger-related costs associated with several acquisitions completed during fiscal years 2001 through 2003.
This is only supposed to happen when I have tons of excess cash...
FNSR...WHAT THE HELL JUST HAPPENED
WAHZ AVNX - I suspect that todays down in AVNX is inpart caused by the notion of Wi-MAX. While I think that this new tecnology is truly cool.. I really don't see how it would impact FTTH initiatives. The players driving toward FTTH need a big pipe into the house for way more than network connections. 500 channels of streaming video takes up a lot of space. Not to mention, the inherent band width limitation of "though the air" technology. I can definitely see deployment of Wi-Max coming but I just doesn't seem logical that it would slow down fiber to the household.
What am I missing?
Our fellow traders in Japan seem to be making a new high and breaking out of the consolidation since October. Hope it holds. No doubt this could be some Yen/Dollar thing.. however, I do like seeing the second biggest market putting in a new high. Hong Kong is right there with them...which to me bodes well for the Sox potentially.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=t
WAHZ... I volunteer to help you manage the email list if you'd like.
Here is the nasdaq commentary from the nightly MurphyMorris newsletter. Murphy seems to think we are done from here... Here's to him being 100% wrong for the next week or two then he can be correct after we hedge better LOL
NASDAQ STILL TESTING 2000 LEVEL... The Nasdaq closed down only two points today and is still testing its December high near 2000. Although the loss was relatively small, it came on increasing volume. There were also more decliners than advancers and more downside than upside volume. This represents an important test. If it doesn't hold (and I don't think it will), the next support level will be the Movember low closer to 1900. The daily MACD lines are still negative. The daily stochastic lines are moving down toward oversold territory, but aren't there yet. Even those more sensitive lines are still negative. Although the 2000 level may also be providing some "psychological" support, I doubt if it's strong enough to turn the Nasdaq trend back up again. Chart 6 shows the Semiconductor (SOX) Index bouncing a bit off its early February low. That probably helped stabilize the Nasdaq market as well. Technical odds, however, favor a further fall in the SOX to the December low near 475.
VOIP Article
No doubt ITXC croaked after it's CEO whined in this article publish today
http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2004/Feb/1024371.htm
I seems to me that several days of sideways might be the name of the game rather than any brisk recovery. There has got to be one ton of people licking their wounds.. these are the same ones that got wipsawed in Dec. Makes one pause before piling in.
Note: Just my gut feeling this morning.. Not based on fact
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