Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
In CDE
Great couple of days. Now, let’s do it again.
Pos div on CMF and other indicators is really starting to correct. Good action today, although vol is a bit weak.
2-3% a trade 2-3x per week and you beat the daylights out of Mr. Market.
I read somewhere years ago that 95% of traders (not investors) lose money in the market. Institutions and large specs have all the advantages.
Get lunch, don’t be lunch.
Looks like the shorts are caught and trying to get out of their positions. Trading desks are scrambling this week to cover. Day trading this thing should get easier. Get in, get out, don't get run over.
The index measures the performance of commodity futures contracts, and, as the date for a futures contract comes due, the index replaces such contract with similar contracts with later expirations. The index thus is a "rolling" index.
The index is valued using the settlement prices for the underlying futures contracts. The index rolls its contracts over the course of 5 consecutive business days, starting on the 6th business day of the month. Each day, approximately 20% of each futures position that is included in the month's roll is rolled.
So, if I understand it correctly, last Monday the 10th was the 6th business day of April, meaning Boil “rolled” 20% of its contracts each day, leaving it holding a fresh set of contracts today. Today it would have rolled last Monday’s contracts and picked up today’s.
If that is true, the accumulative effect of better prices Fri/Mon should quickly offset the losses incurred earlier last week.
Anyone see it differently?
BOIL seems to have lost its 2x performance efficiency today. Does the weighting of various futures contracts expiration dates pull it down?
While I have been day/swing trading BOIL over the last number of months, I find merit in your idea of stashing some profits away for what could easily be a 3-4 bagger over the next couple of months.
If you’re a contrarian, (as most chartists are by nature) you’d be hard pressed to find many more beat up than NG. Energy is NOT going to get cheaper going forward.
All the opinion of a goldbug and should not be taken as financial advice.
4God
NYB - As you well know, the real problem is the value of “paper with some numbers printed on it”, otherwise known as the US Dollar.
$100 in 1923 is equivalent in purchasing power to about $1,759.30 today, an increase of $1,659.30 over 100 years. The dollar had an average inflation rate of 2.91% per year between 1923 and today, producing a cumulative price increase of 1,659.30%.
https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/1923
In 1923 $21.32 would buy you 1 oz of gold - today that oz will cost you just over $2,000 or 94x as much .
Got Gold?
U.S. natural gas futures surged 8% Monday as traders covered short positions after plunging 9% last week near the psychologically significant $2/MMBtu level. Front-month Nymex natural gas (NG1:COM) for May delivery settled +8% to $2.172/MMBtu, its largest one-day percentage gain since March 3 and the fifth gain in the past six sessions.
Stocks of natural gas producers closed with broad gains. Tradition Energy director of market research attributed the bounce to traders covering their short positions, adding that more cooling demand into summer should support the market.
Analysts also said the market could see high volatility in the near term, given the lack of clear catalysts. Energy consultant Ritterbusch and Associates said recently it still sees "significant price support further down the curve with Europe likely to be a stronger player later in the summer."
(Snippet from Email received)
Nice volume today - I think green is a much nicer color on my platform than red. I trust everyone else had a good day today.
Reloading in small blocks this week. I believe the NG market is no different than the Ag and Au markets. That is to say, totally controlled by the banksters. They have purposefully driven prices this low the force out competitors and buy for the next multi-billion dollar energy boom. I believe commodities are just entering a bull market that will dwarf anything we’ve seen in recent times. The collapse of the $USD is going to send food (corn, wheat, rice, soybeans) and energy (coal, oil, gas) thru the roof.
Europe has failed to secure enough long-term contracts for liquefied natural gas to offset cut-off Russian gas imports, which may prove costly next winter as a rebound in Chinese demand could sharply tighten the market, according to a new analysis this week from Reuters.
Europe imported 121M metric tons of LNG last year ahead of the 2022-23 winter season to replace Russian gas - 60% more than the previous year - to help the continent to get through winter with higher than expected gas storage levels.
But Europe bought much of its LNG last year on the spot market, where prices are often much higher than gas bought under long-term contracts, and analysts warn additional demand from China could push prices even higher, Reuters reports.
Analysts estimate Europe accounted for more than a third of the world's total spot market trades in 2022, up from 13% in 2021, and this exposure potentially could rise to more than 50% during the 2023-24 winter season.
Part of the problem is that the European Union sees gas as a transition fuel, so its LNG buyers struggle to commit to the timeframes necessary to lock in LNG more cheaply under contract, while Asia has been buying up new long-term contracts starting in 2025 and beyond.
"Since the green lobby in Europe has managed to persuade politicians wrongly that hydrogen to a large extent can replace natural gas as an energy carrier by 2030, Europe has become far too reliant on spot and short term purchases of LNG," consultant Morten Frisch told Reuters.
Reuters Report:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europe-facing-costly-winter-without-enough-long-term-lng-deals-2023-04-06/?utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&messageid=2900&mailingid=31107458&serial=31107458.4226&utm_term=31107458.4226&source=email_2900&utm_medium=email
Gold Stocks: Bull Flags In Play
Morris Hubbartt
trading@superforcesignals.com
trading@superforce60.com
Super Force Precious Metals Video Analysis
Morris Hubbartt
Apr 7, 2023
Here are today's videos and charts. The videos are viewable on mobile phones as well as computers. Double-click to enlarge the charts.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt040723.html
Missed most of it. Had a family emergency, so I’ve too busy. Come Monday we’ll see what’s cookin’. NG May futures touched 1.992 Yikes,
Have a great Easter weekend. 4God
Here we go again. Morning bounce. Maybe more.
Morning bounce.
If you wanna put a smile on your face go to APMEX and price your various silver and gold coins and bullion.
This thing seems be be out of favor - volume is anemic today - I think folk are bored with this. Until something sparks attention it might be harder to trade if that’s possible.
U.S. natural gas futures fell more than 5% Monday on forecasts for milder weather and less heating demand than previously expected.
Weather forecasts in the Lower 48 states point to continuing warmer than normal temperatures through April 18, except for a few days during April 6-8 that could be colder than normal.
The drop in gas prices combined with the big jump in crude futures has raised oil's premium over gas to its highest since May 2012 for an oil-to-gas ratio to 38-to-1 on Monday.
(received via email)
In his press conference this week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the Fed is nearing the end of its regime of hiking interest rates, especially as a new tightening of lending standards resulting from the recent banking system woes is equivalent to additional rate hikes.
A Fed pause is likely good for gold, as that will end/slow the rise in real interest rates. And should he Fed actually pivot, as the market is pricing in by summer, that should be even more favorable for precious metals prices, as real interest rates should be in decline then.
And of course if they Fed's tightening efforts "break something" beyond the cracks that have recently shown up in the banking system, crisis fears should drive even more capital into gold.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2023-03-30/did-federal-reserve-just-give-green-light-buy-gold-adam-taggart
Time to rotate out / in for a better price
Time to rotate for a better price
Sold the pop
Lol - I doubt anyone is holding from those levels - this is a swing trade / day trade vehicle
Bounced off trend line - so far so good.
I can’t think that far ahead. 2-3 days in this thing is nerve wracking enough. lol
This next couple months “should be” good for Natty. In this environment, who knows?
Catching the serrated edge of a falling knife is really tough!
Price dropped back to test the downtrend line - if she bounces here it’s playable, imo - if she breaks down below this level she’s headed deeper into the abyss.
2nd half of March this was a money maker. Hope it continues in April.
Wow! My oil ETF’s are cranking on news from Russia, and the Saudi’s - meanwhile NG is still getting sold off. Where is the point that producers throw in the towel and shut down? I get it that winter is fading, but we do have a summer scheduled this year, no?
Major oil producers in the OPEC+ group announced a surprise addition to production cuts Sunday.
Saudi Arabia, the top producer in the group that includes Russia, will cut 500K barrels per day. The total new cuts are about 1.16 bpd, bringing total cuts including the previous 2M bpd to about 3.66M, according to data from Reuters.
Russia reportedly made a cut of 500K bpd until the end of this year.
Major oil producers in the OPEC+ group announced a surprise addition to production cuts Sunday.
Saudi Arabia, the top producer in the group that includes Russia, will cut 500K barrels per day. The total new cuts are about 1.16 bpd, bringing total cuts including the previous 2M bpd to about 3.66M, according to data from Reuters.
Russia reportedly made a cut of 500K bpd until the end of this year.
A Contrarian Buying Opportunity For Energy Bulls
https://www.acheroninsights.com/blog/a-contrarian-buying-opportunity-for-energy-bulls
A Contrarian Buying Opportunity For Energy Bulls
https://www.acheroninsights.com/blog/a-contrarian-buying-opportunity-for-energy-bulls
O’Neill Urges BRICS Bloc to Expand, Challenge Dollar’s Dominance
Mar 29
(Bloomberg) -- Jim O’Neill, the former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. chief economist who coined the acronym BRIC, said the bloc of nations that later adopted the name should expand and work to counter the dollar’s dominance.
In a paper published in the Global Policy journal on March 26, O’Neill called on the group to apply strict criteria to ensure the addition of any new members to its ranks helps further its aims and urged it to focus on climate finance, improving healthcare and boosting trade.
“The US dollar plays a far too dominant role in global finance,” he wrote. “Whenever the Federal Reserve Board has embarked on periods of monetary tightening, or the opposite, loosening, the consequences on the value of the dollar and the knock-on effects have been dramatic.”
Brazil, Russia, India and China established BRIC in 2009 and the bloc became BRICS a year later when South Africa was admitted. If it expands to include other “emerging nations with persistent surpluses,” a globally fairer, multi-currency global system could emerge, O’Neill said.
He argues that the dollar’s dominance means the burden of dollar-denominated debt for other nations rises and falls with the exchange rate, destabilizing their own monetary policy, with the greenback’s movements ultimately playing a larger role than domestic decisions.
Read more: BRICS Debates Expansion as Iran, Saudi Arabia Seek Entry
Still, the economist cautions that the group should only admit countries that meet the original criteria of having large populations and sizable economies with significant potential. He disagrees with its decision to include South Africa, by far the smallest BRICS country.
“If the main goal of BRICS as a group is symbolism, which it often seems to be, then attracting other, especially large-population emerging countries is understandable,” he said. But if there is an economic purpose “the criterion for including new members needs to be focused,” he wrote in the paper entitled The Future of the BRICS and the New Development Bank.
The group’s aims should include gaining a stronger voice in global institutions such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, O’Neill said. While BRICS accounts for 42% of the world’s population, its members have less than 15% of the voting rights in the two lenders, according to the Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies.
BRICS plans to decide this year whether to admit new members and if so, what criteria to apply, Anil Sooklal, South Africa’s ambassador to the bloc, said earlier this month. Saudi Arabia and Iran are among about a dozen nations that have expressed interest in joining, he said.
Potential Candidates
O’Neill said new members should have a population of at least 100 million, with Asian nations such as Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Pakistan and the Philippines among the potential candidates. Mexico, Turkey, Nigeria, Egypt and Ethiopia could also be considered, he said. It would only make sense to admit Saudi Arabia and Iran if the group aims to develop a counterweight to the dollar as they are among the world’s biggest oil producers, he said.
Still, a bigger bloc would make cooperation, already halting, even more difficult.
Already, O’Neill avers, BRICS and the New Development Bank, which it set up in 1914, has missed a number of opportunities.
China and India, the biggest members of BRICS, have shown little commitment to developing strong trade relations. The NDB should have, and still could be given, a strong mandate to finance alternative energy to fight climate change. The five BRICS countries are all among the world’s top 14 greenhouse gases emitters, with China the biggest single source.
If clear goals could be met “BRICS expansion would not only be sensible but should be welcomed by all, including the traditional powers,” O’Neill said.
©2023 Bloomberg L.P.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/o-neill-urges-brics-bloc-to-expand-challenge-dollar-s-dominance-1.1901781.amp.html
<store most of your wealth In physical forms>
Yup
<Finally, sadly, the US is falling from its throne>
So sad
<Cling the the real King of kings!>
Only One Rock! Everything else is sand.
Have a great weekend. 4God
Yup - people often get confused about NG prices, thinking that winter is the best time to buy NG - however, a look at 5-10-30 yr seasonality charts tells a different story.