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Read that article earlier today. He makes several good points.
I think this secular bear market is just getting started. Brokers-R-Us can’t make money unless their clients are buying and the-storm-is-over-come-on-in-the-water’s-fine sales pitch is going to break many a heart.
Much more pain to come for the major indices imo
I too think that great gains are ahead once the PM’s get past the next level.
The odd thing for me is that gold is up against resistance, while silver has a little more room to run. (My view, which could be wrong in a number of ways)
I “think” that means a couple weeks of consolidation.
The great thing about this new gold bull is that getting it right/wrong day by day will be soon forgotten in the longer term.
GT’s my cyber friend,
4God
I hope I got it right. Used to buy too early and sell too late. Now I tend to buy too late and sell too early.
In my perfect world all things Au go sideways for a couple weeks, then breakout. Ag and it’s family of stocks and ETF’s should run to mid-February.
Right or wrong, goldbugs should have a great 2023.
Resistance ahead
$Gold 1882 - High Fri 1875
GDX 32.96 - High Fri 31.67
GDXJ 41.97 - High Fri 39.68
$Silver 26.50 - High Fri 24.06
SLV 24.16 - High Fri 22.00
Platinum kicking it today!
I think $gold looks a little toppy. Nobody ever went broke taking a profit. Reducing GDX, GDXJ, and PHYS here. Hoping for a better bite in a couple weeks. Worked for me last time, we’ll see.
Holding my SLV and Platinum stocks, as well as a few ponies.
4God
Point taken. We used to say ‘Get lunch, don’t BE lunch” - add the speed of the programs and the little fish only has one chance. Grab a little morsel and then scurry back under cover.
Gold: Investor Tactics For 2023
Stewart Thomson
email: stewart@gracelandupdates.com
email: stewart@gracelandjuniors.com
email: admin@guswinger.com
Click here for all the links:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_010323.html
Jan 3, 2022
For 2023, my suggested “average investor portfolio” is 40% gold (or 40% silver for silver bugs), 40% fiat, and 20% everything else. Aggressive investors will want more of the “everything else” category.
For a look at the US stock market, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. The weekly chart Stochastics oscillator is overbought but RSI is not.
There were two great rallies in 2022 from my Dow 30,000 buy zone… but from a tactical perspective, those are done so profits should be booked.
Stock market investors should pay attention to the closing price on Friday because the first trading week of January often sets the tone for the year.
Regardless, investor patience will be very important in 2023; lots of volatility with minimal overall progress (at best) is likely to be the main theme.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this oil price chart. Unlike the general stock market, oil stocks did incredibly well in 2022.
Oil stocks may have the same great performance this year, but they are still likely to rise if the stock market rises, and they could surge again if the US government’s deranged war mongering creates more frozen supply chains and another wave of inflation.
Next, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. The dollar continues to look perky against the ruble and the 2021-2025 war cycle has 3 years to go.
I like a 40% allocation to fiat, not because it’s a great asset, but because citizens need it to buy most things… and because (unfortunately) it’s the lifeblood of governments.
They will do literally anything they need to do (most of it unethical) to keep their pillars of fiat and debt intact.
Conservative investors could buy T-bills and short-term bonds. I prefer cash, so I’m emotionally unhindered and can act decisively if a good opportunity appears in commodities, crypto, or gold stocks.
I write my junior resource stocks newsletter about twice a week, and at just $199/12mths it’s an investor favourite. I’m doing a special “Happy New Year” pricing this week of $169 for 14mths! Send me an email if you want the special offer and I’ll get you onboard. Thank-you.
A 40% allocation to gold (or more) has served investors well for thousands of years. For a look at the weekly gold chart, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. Gold was poised to make a run to $3000 in 2022, but instead of breaking out of the huge inverse H&S chart pattern, it’s been drifting sideways.
Stochastics is overbought but RSI is not (like the Dow).
For a look at the daily chart, click here now. Double-click to enlarge. While the rally from $1610 has lost momentum, it looks like gold can reach my next sell zone of $1880 before a more meaningful pullback occurs.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. Can silver really rally all the way from $17 to $27 before having a meaningful pullback?
It can, and silver tends to rally most strongly in the late stage of a rally for gold. If gold can reach $1880, silver can easily reach $27.
What about platinum? Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. Multiple chart pattern breakouts are in play and a surge to $1200 looks imminent.
Platinum is part of the “20% for everything else” part of my portfolio, and it’s a decent holding for anyone in my professional opinion.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this platinum versus gold ratio chart. There’s a rough base pattern and it’s quite large.
My suggested approach for platinum bullion is to buy it with modest size on all $100/oz dips.
Aggressive gold bugs forgo the 40-40-20 portfolio, and many prefer to be nearly 100% invested in the miners.
How did that work out in 2022? Well, the CDNX junior mines index floundered, but GDX and GDXJ faired reasonably well, especially given the flat year in gold and the terrible year for the stock market.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this GDX daily chart. Note the bullish volume pattern at the bottom of the chart. A Friday close above $30 with decent volume is needed to usher in a real upside breakout. Will a rally to $1880 for gold be enough to get that job done? The answer is likely… yes!
Thanks!
Cheers
st
Jan 3, 2023
Stewart Thomson
Graceland Updates
website: www.gracelandupdates.com
email for questions: stewart@gracelandupdates.com
email to request the free reports: freereports@gracelandupdates.com
Thnx - I bot entry positions in 2 companies today based on the seasonality charts. SA did an article on the platinum comex getting larpy. Thought I’d give it a try.
Anyone here ever play platinum?
Just showed up on my radar. Might try some.
SLV seasonality chart confirms your posit. Seasonally, Ag runs thru late Feb, then sells off - rinse and repeat thru June. Then the summer rally.
https://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/SLV_geo.png
Au and Ag getting a bid, USD selling off, Bitcoin not finding any love. Hope this continues.
Gold Key Moving Averages in Play
Morris Hubbartt
trading@superforcesignals.com
trading@superforce60.com
Super Force Precious Metals Video Analysis
Morris Hubbartt
Dec 23, 2022
Here are today's videos and charts. The videos are viewable on mobile phones as well as computers. Double-click to enlarge the charts.
SGS Key Charts, Signals, & Video Analysis
Super Force Signals (SFS) is being rebranded as Super Gold Signals (SGS at https://supergoldsignals.com), to reflect the growing global importance of gold.
Charts:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt122322.html
Mick, I got to looking at the major indices. The $INDU did 800 million, the $COMPQ did 8 billion,and the $SPX did 5 billion in volume on Friday. Some serious selling going on. This is going to end badly for the markets overall, but rather well, I think, for precious metals.
Volume Friday was huge!
NYBob - Why would any country ever put their gold in the vaults of these thieves again? For that matter, why would any sane individual trust a bankster with their physical?
Fed & Options Expiry: Buy Gold & Oil
Morris Hubbartt
trading@superforcesignals.com
trading@superforce60.com
Super Force Precious Metals Video Analysis
Morris Hubbartt
Dec 16, 2022
Here are today's videos and charts. The videos are viewable on mobile phones as well as computers. Double-click to enlarge the charts.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt121622.html
Problem is, the USD is measured against other currencies. Most are in even worse condition than we are. The world has printed entirely too much paper (including futures markets)
The piper is warming up!
Market risks keeping gold in the fold
In the crypto world, the Grinch stole Christmas early! The sudden collapse of FTX raises many questions about the entire crypto ecosystem and creates much uncertainty in what is still a fairly new asset class. Perhaps it should not surprise us that as this sector grows, invents, and defines itself, there are going to be some casualties. We are often asked about the impact bitcoin has had on gold demand, as they are both seen as alternative investments. No doubt, gold has likely lost some investors to bitcoin. However, we believe the core gold investors are generally very different from bitcoin investors. Those investing in gold are looking for the safe haven, inflation protection, and portfolio diversification - benefits that gold has historically offered. It is clearly too early to tell what role bitcoin and crypto assets will play in a portfolio, and this month’s developments are a setback in that discovery process. Until this is better understood and corroborated over time, crypto will have a tough time stealing gold’s investors.
(From a larger SA piece)
Oops, left $ on the table with this one.
In CORN
The Precious Metals Sector May Have Started A Sustainable Bull Cycle
by irdadmin | Dec 12, 2022 | Financial Markets, Gold, Market Manipulation, Precious Metals | 0 comments
I wrote the following commentary for Kinesis Money. A portion of it was derived from analysis I presented to subscribers of the Mining Stock Journal a couple weeks ago. You can learn more about this newsletter here: MSJ information
It’s likely that the next cyclical, sustainable move higher in the precious metals sector has begun. The silver chart to illustrate why I think this may be the case with gold and silver:
(Chart)
The chart above shows a 5-yr weekly of SLV (representing the silver price). The same charts for GLD and GDX look quite similar to the SLV chart.
After peaking in August 2020 following the post-lockdown bull party in all financial assets triggered by a massive dose of money printing by the Fed and other Central Banks, the precious metals sector has been in a two-plus year consolidation/pullback. That pullback was completed at the end of September and has been followed by sharp rally in gold, silver and the mining stocks.
From a technical standpoint, the precious metals sector looks ready to move considerably higher – note the set-up in the MACD in the above chart. I use the MACDf as a technical tool for multiple-year, weekly charts asit is slower-moving than the RSI and, to some degree of validity, reflects the longer-term potential for a move in the markets.
In the one-year daily chart, silver popped over its 200 dma (red line) on November 10th, which was the last key moving average hurdle on the chart (21, 50, 100, 200 dma’s).
(Chart)
After a brief trip back below the 200 dma, it shot back over the key moving average on Wednesday (November 30th), thereby successfully fending off an attempt to drive the price lower.
From a technical analysis standpoint, an investor who likes to use charts as part of the tool-kit for investing and trading would be hard-pressed to find a more bullish chart set-up than the charts for gold, silver and the mining stocks.
Certainly the technical picture for the precious metals sector is more than supported by several fundamental factors. It’s been well-documented that the banks have been reducing their net short-exposure to gold and silver futures contracts on the COMEX. This move has been mirrored by the BIS, the Central Bank of Central Banks, which has nearly eliminated its gold swap transactions (BIS gold swaps) after the swaps outstanding reached an all-time high in February.
The BIS gold swaps are a gimmick used by the BIS to make available BIS gold bars that can used to “allocate” bars to large buyers who choose to leave their bars in the custodial safe-keeping of London bullion banks.
The problem for the BIS is if the legitimate owners of those bars decide to take possession of the bars and remove them from London bank custodial services. The only reason I can think of that that the BIS would largely eliminate its exposure to upside price risk in gold and silver is concern about the probability of a big move higher in the sector that might trigger a run on bars on London bullion vaults, including the “swapped” BIS bars.
This action by the BIS thus removes the risk of its exposure to unallocated gold bars in London bullion bank custodial vaults, which implies that it be may worried about either a big move higher in gold or a run on the physical bars in the custody of London bullion banks – or both.
In addition, there’s been a low-grade gold and silver “rush” as evidenced by the large-scale removal of physical silver from LBMA custodial vaults in London and the removal of physical gold and silver bars from COMEX custodial vaults in New York. This reflects both a growing imbalance in the “demand” side of the supply/demand equations for gold and silver.
Furthermore, I would make the case that, particularly after the nickel short-squeeze earlier this year, there’s growing distrust by investors of leaving their physical gold and silver bars in custodial vaults. I firmly believe that, when it comes to physical silver, possession is ten-tenths of the law.
Finally, in response to the ongoing global bear market in equities and a growing fear of another credit market crisis, I expect to see movement of investment capital out of financial assets and into the precious metals sector that would entail a move into physical gold and silver followed by a speculative frenzy in mining stocks. Institutional investment portfolios in totality have a tiny percentage of assets allocated to gold and silver (less than 1%). If these funds allocated just 2-3% of their assets to the precious metals sector, it will be accompanied by soaring prices for gold, silver and mining stocks.
Link to charts:
https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/financial-markets/the-precious-metals-sector-may-have-started-a-sustainable-bull-cycle/
Bot CDE 12/12/22 ah
Mr Market liked the CPI numbers today. Commodities sailing, dollar getting sold off.
Hey trunkmonk, $Gold has pushed thru the 200dma twice this month you think it continues this trip?
Gold Stocks Surging Back
Adam Hamilton
Dec 09, 2022
The gold miners' stocks are surging back, amplifying their metal's gains in a strong mean-reversion rally. That is shifting sentiment back towards bullish, a big change after this contrarian sector was hammered to exceedingly-oversold lows. Despite gold stocks' recent surge, their young upleg likely has a long ways to run yet. Gold's own outlook remains very strong, and its miners' stocks will leverage its upside like usual.
The GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF is this sector's leading benchmark and trading vehicle, and it has had quite a run lately. Between late September to early December, it blasted 37.4% higher regaining its 200-day moving average. That leveraged gold's parallel 11.1% mean-reversion rebound by a strong 3.4x! The major gold stocks dominating GDX usually amplify material gold uplegs and corrections by 2x to 3x.
The smaller fundamentally-superior mid-tier and junior gold miners I specialize in fared even better. Our newsletter trading books are full of such great stocks, and recent trades' unrealized gains were running as high as 74.6% mid-week! We aggressively bought incredible bargains in the months surrounding GDX's brutal 2.5-year secular low in late September. The gold stocks were left for dead in something of a false panic.
I wrote a whole essay on that false gold-stock panic published the trading day before GDX bottomed at $21.87. This sector hadn't traded at lower prices since immediately after March 2020's ugly pandemic-lockdown stock panic. Remember fear was off the charts then before lockdowns' impact on the economy was understood. In just over a single month, the flagship S&P 500 benchmark stock index plummeted 33.9%!
GDX getting sucked into that maelstrom was reasonable, but there was no justification for gold stocks to revisit such extremes in late September 2022. At those lows I warned gold stocks had "been slammed to extreme lows in recent months on a false premise. Traders assume gold's parallel plunge must be fundamentally-righteous. But that was driven by enormous gold-futures selling on anomalous market events."
Therefore "As these unsustainable extremes inevitably reverse hard, the battered gold stocks will soar." The rationale was simple. Speculators' gold-futures positioning had grown exceedingly bearish, leaving their selling firepower exhausted. That was fueled by the US dollar shooting parabolic in response to the Fed's most extreme tightening ever. Specs only had room for major mean-reversion buying from there.
I concluded then when everyone hated gold stocks "As all that reverses, gold will soar launching gold stocks way higher." That is exactly what started since late September, with specs buying to cover an enormous 61.5k gold-futures short contracts! That's the equivalent of 191.2 metric tons of gold, a lot of buying in just nine weeks. That directly blasted gold 11.1% higher at best, driving GDX's big 37.4% surge.
These young gold and gold-stock uplegs ought to be only getting started. One of the core principles of contrarian trading is proportional mean reversions out of extremes. The lower prices are hammered, the more popular fear that generates, the greater the subsequent mean-reversion rebounds and overshoots. In late September gold was also crushed to a deep 2.5-year secular low, March 2020 stock-panic levels.
Out of such unsustainable technical and sentimental extremes, gold soared 40.0% higher over the next 4.6 months. The major gold stocks of GDX skyrocketed 134.1%in about the same 4.8-month span! That made for strong upside leverage to gold of 3.4x. Interestingly that is exactly what we've seen since those last unsustainable lows in late September 2022. Gold and gold stocks have a long ways to mean revert yet.
This chart superimposes GDX and its various technical lines over gold during the past several years. All gold stocks' gains during uplegs and losses during corrections are labeled, along with the parallel gold moves driving them. Those gold uplegs and corrections may be offset from gold stocks' buy a few trading days, as toppings and bottomings don't always match. GDX's leverage to gold during each big swing is
chart: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton120922.htm
After that powerful mean-reversion-overshoot upleg out of March 2020's stock-panic extremes, both gold and gold stocks were extremely overbought. A major correction was due, and came to pass followed by a bottoming consolidation. The precious-metals sector started climbing again in late January 2022, despite an increasingly-hawkish Fed and a month before Russia invaded Ukraine. That young upleg was looking solid.
By mid-April this year, GDX had powered 41.4% higher over 6.6 months on gold's 14.6% gains in roughly that same span. That 2.8x upside leverage was good, near the upper end of major gold stocks' usual 2x-to-3x range. Then the bottom fell out as the US dollar started soaring on the Fed's extreme jawboning, rate hikes, and quantitative-tightening monetary destruction. That culminated in late September's panic lows.
Excluding its earlier Russia-invading-Ukraine geopolitical spike, gold plunged 17.9% in 5.5 months on massive gold-futures selling. Speculators aggressively dumped longs and flooded into shorts with the benchmark US Dollar Index blasting an unbelievable 14.3% higher during that short span! GDX plummeted 46.5% in sympathy, amplifying gold's downside by a normal 2.6x. Mid-2022 certainly proved miserable.
I wrote plenty of essays analyzing that carnage in real-time as it unfolded. All gold-stock speculators and investors need to follow specs' gold-futures trading, as the extreme leverage inherent in it often bullies around the gold price. My most-recent work on this thread was a mid-October essay on all that crazy gold-futures puking stalling. That will get you up to speed if you ostriched through gold's major selloff.
A late October essay dived into why the euphoric dollar was vexing gold this year. That extreme dollar rally on extreme Fed tightening left that US Dollar Index as extremely overbought as gold was extremely oversold, necessitating its own mean-reversion-overshoot plunge. Indeed in the last 2.2 months as gold surged 11.1%, the USDX plummeted 8.4%! The Fed's ability to shock traders with hawkish surprises was over.
In yet another essay in early November, I explained in depth why the Fed's dollar/gold shock was ending. After a monster 375 basis points of rate hikes in just 7.6 months, the Fed's federal-funds rate was nearing its terminal levels. With the lion's share of that ultra-aggressive hiking cycle already done, the Fed would have to soon moderate its rate hikes. Last week the Fed chair signaled a smaller 50bp hike in mid-December.
Along with that recent streak of huge 75bp hikes, the Fed is starting to destroy some of the vast money it conjured into existence after March 2020's pandemic-lockdown stock panic. In just 25.5 months between then and mid-April 2022, this central bank foolishly injected $4,807b of new fiat dollars into the economy. That ballooned the global US dollar supply by a crazy 115.6%, more than doubling it in just a couple years!
That extreme fourth quantitative-easing campaign has just started to be unwound since June, with the Fed selling $337b of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. While that's sizable, so far this QT2 has only reversed less than 1/14thof that gargantuan QE4 money printing! With the Fed promising $95b per month of monetary destruction and already falling well behind, there are no more bigger-QT surprises coming.
So after four monster 75bp rate hikes in a row and the biggest QT ever attempted by far, top Fed officials have expended their potential to keep hawkishly shocking markets. The result of that is clear in the past couple months, the overbought US dollar is plunging while oversold gold is surging. Those trends ought to continue as the smaller Fed rate hikes coming will increasingly be seen by traders as a major dovish pivot.
That extreme US-dollar anomaly in mid-2022 was the only reason gold plunged, dragging down the gold stocks with it. But all that is rapidly unwinding as the last couple months' price action on all these fronts proved. Gold is casting off the Fed-goosed dollar's tyranny, finally starting to reflect its own super-bullish fundamentals. As gold continues powering higher on those, the gold stocks will continue amplifying its gains.
The World Gold Council collects the best-available global gold supply-and-demand data, which it then publishes quarterly in its fantastic must-read Gold Demand Trends reports. The latest iteration is current to Q3'22. The end of that coincided with gold's deep stock-panic-grade $1,623 low, leaving this metal down a hefty 9.1% year-to-date exiting Q3. That futures-selling-driven anomaly masked strong fundamentals.
During the first nine months of this year, total global gold demand climbed 3.0% year-over-year to 3,553 metric tons. That exceeded total mine-supply growth rising 2.0% YoY to 2,686t. Jewelry demand in this nine-month span grew a healthy 5.2% YoY to 1,589t, investment demand surged a strong 26.4% YoY to 889t despite mid-2022's big gold selloff, and central-bank buying blasted 61.9% higher YoY to hit 673t!
That investment category is the big wildcard in overall gold demand, dominating the yellow metal's price trends. Investors in turn are very sensitive to those very trends, only flocking to gold when it exhibits nice upside momentum to chase. That was sure lacking between mid-April to late September, so investors were apathetic at best. But with gold off to the races since, investors will increasingly return accelerating its gains.
The raging inflation unleashed by the Fed's extreme money printing in recent years is super-bullish for gold investment demand. The more investors suffer inflationary predations on their capital's purchasing power, the longer high inflation persists, the more they will diversify some of their stock-heavy portfolios into gold. Gold has a millennia-old track record of being the ultimate inflation hedge during currency debasements.
Though this year's extreme US dollar rally temporarily derailed gold, we are suffering the worst inflation super-spike since the 1970s. Over the past twelve months, even the lowballed headline Consumer Price Index has averaged staggering 8.0% year-over-year jumps! As legendary American economist Milton Friedman proved back in the early 1960s, "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon."
While the Fed can bluster all it wants with aggressive rate hikes, the root cause of higher prices remains relatively-more money competing for and bidding up the prices of relatively-less goods and services. Fully 13/14thsof the Fed's epic QE4 monetary deluge remains in the system. And even if the Fed can hit its $95b-per-month QT2 target, it would take 47 more months to fully unwind QE4 or 24 to even half reverse it!
That almost guarantees at least another couple years of big inflation. While the headline CPI prints could moderate on higher base effects, general prices will keep rising on balance. As investors suffer more and more of this in their lives, they will increasingly remember gold unleashing huge new investment demand. That certainly happened during those last similar inflation super-spikesdominating the 1970s markets.
From June 1972 to December 1974, headline year-over-year US Consumer Price Index inflation soared from 2.7% to 12.3%. During that 30-month span, conservative monthly-average gold prices blasted up an amazing 196.6%! After that serious inflation wave passed, another one soon followed. From November 1976 to March 1980, the YoY CPI prints skyrocketed from 4.9% to 14.8%. Gold was a moonshot in that span.
Over that 40-month inflation super-spike, gold shot parabolic with a stupendous 322.4% gain in monthly-average-price terms from trough to peak CPI! As the world's aboveground gold supply is way bigger now than during the 1970s, gold probably won't nearly triple or more than quadruple again in this first inflation super-spike since then. But surely it ought to at least double with red-hot inflation raging out of control.
Today's inflation super-spike rapidly started accelerating in April 2021, when the CPI surged hotter first exceeding 4% YoY price hikes. That month gold averaged $1,761 and GDX averaged $35.07. If gold doubles from there, it would exceed $3,500before this next mighty bull run gives up its ghost! And GDX ought to stay true to history amplifying gold's gains by 2x to 3x, meaning it should quadruple to sextuple.
That implies GDX peaking somewhere between $140 to $210, radically higher than last week's $30! From mid-week levels, that would make for stupendous 377% to 616% gainsin the major gold stocks. And the fundamentally-superior mid-tiers and juniors will do much better outperforming larger peers like usual. There's certainly no other stock-market sector with such huge upside potential in coming years.
So gold stocks surging back in recent months is likely only the beginning of a temporarily-delayed mighty inflation-super-spike-fueled bull. Contrarians buying in early before gold powers high enough for long enough for everyone to figure this out stand to multiply their wealth earning fortunes. Despite gold stocks' mounting gains since late September, those are merely the tip of the iceberg of what is probably coming.
If you regularly enjoy my essays, please support our hard work! For decades we've published popular weeklyand monthlynewsletters focused on contrarian speculation and investment. These essays wouldn't exist without that revenue. Our newsletters draw on my vast experience, knowledge, wisdom, and ongoing research to explain what's going on in the markets, why, and how to trade them with specific stocks.
That holistic integrated contrarian approach has proven very successful, yielding massive realized gainsduring gold uplegs like this overdue next major one. We extensively research gold and silver miners to find cheap fundamentally-superior mid-tiers and juniors with outsized upside potential as gold powers higher. Our trading books are full of them already starting to soar. Subscribe today and get smarter and richer!
The bottom line is gold stocks are surging back, mean reverting out of recent extreme stock-panic-grade lows. They are nicely amplifying gold's parallel upleg, which has been fueled by big gold-futures short covering. With the Fed out of room to keep shocking markets with its extreme tightening campaigns, the parabolic US dollar has reversed hard. So gold-futures speculators are unwinding their super-bearish bets.
These recent sharp gold and gold-stock gains are only the beginning. Gold's fundamentals remain strong despite mid-2022's sharp selloff. And investment demand will only grow in coming years as high inflation persists. That's not going away until major central banks destroy the majority of recent years' extreme money printing. As long as gold powers higher on balance, the gold stocks will leverage its gains like usual.
Dec 09, 2022
Adam Hamilton, CPA
Out again, prolly until March/Apr
$COMPQ 15901-11082=4819/15902=30.3% loss
$SPX 4818-3963=855/4818=17.7% loss
$INDU 37000-33781=3219/37000=8.7% loss
$GOLD 1830-1801=29/1830=1.5% loss
Got Gold?
In Gold We Trust
Another interesting report (393 pages):
https://ingoldwetrust.report/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/In-Gold-We-Trust-report-2022-english.pdf
Gold Monthly Compass:
Chock full of interesting charts, graphs, and tablets:
https://mcusercontent.com/b268a38a165b03979d95268dd/files/38a0e632-51e6-172f-e3a9-41fc356e8d5e/December_2022_Monthly_Gold_Compass.pdf#page5
Exciting Times: It's All About Gold
Excellent points and charts:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_120622.html
Still rotating back into GDX, PHYS, GDXJ premarket. So far so good, if nothing else, I lowered my cost over the last few days.
Added back a few GDX, PHYS here. Also got some GDXJ.
Great points made in that first article. I have concerns about the lack of participation by the bulls and by the need to consolidate/retest recent gains. The COT seems lethargic to me. Too many folk waiting. Of course that could be good. I am holding some dry powder, hoping for a reset. I almost added some Friday morning, but decided not to. Too bad, it would have been a good rotation as my GDX and PHYS both had a nice day.
GT’s to you, 4God
Gold Mid-Tiers' Q3'22 Fundamentals
Adam Hamilton
Archives
Dec 02, 2022
With gold starting to run again, the mid-tier and junior gold miners' stocks in their sector's sweet spot for upside potential are increasingly surging. Those mounting gains on accelerating upside momentum are attracting back traders. How far these smaller gold stocks can likely rally in coming months partially depends on how they are faring fundamentally. Their latest earnings season recently wrapping up illuminates that.
Gold-stock tiers are defined by their production rates. Small juniors mine less than 300k ounces of gold annually, medium mid-tiers have outputs running from 300k to 1,000k, large majors yield over 1,000k, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2,000k. The mid-tiers offer a unique mix of sizable diversified production, great output-growth potential, and smaller market capitalizations ideal for outsized gains.
Mid-tiers are much less risky than juniors, and amplify gold's uplegs much more than majors. These mid-tiers are nicely tracked by the GDXJ VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF. Birthed in November 2009, it now commands $3.7b of net assets making it the second-largest sector ETF after its big-brother GDX. While GDXJ is way superior on multiple fronts, despite its name it is overwhelmingly comprised of mid-tier gold miners.
Full article:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton120222.html
The Difference Between Signal and Noise
Bob Moriarty
Archives
Dec 3, 2022
I have no idea of how many people write professionally about investing in resource stocks and the metals. I am well aware that there are tens of thousands of punters expressing their opinions on the various chat boards. Most of them are idiots. But then many of the professional writers are idiots, too, trying to feed people’s fantasies. That’s what you get from TV preachers and all politicians (with perhaps the exception of Alberta’s Premier and Pierre Poilievre)
I write books about investing and then I pretty much give them away. You can pick up Nobody Knows Anything and Basic Investing in Resource Stocks for $.99 in the electronic version. If you can’t afford the $.99 you probably are wasting my time and yours because you are too stupid to understand simple concepts. So I will go over it one more time.
There is signal and there is noise.
GATA, conspiracies, gold and silver manipulation, Bill Murphy, Ted Butler and all of the cliptocurrencies are noise. Nothing they say will ever put a penny in your pocket unless it is by accident. There is no time in history where any of them issued both an accurate buy signal and a sell signal that was based on either facts or logic. You can howl at the moon all you wish about how Crimex is stealing but all you are doing is whining.
You can’t make money from noise. Saying that gold and silver are manipulated is akin to saying the sun rises in the east. All financial markets are manipulated and always will be.
Signal on the other hand is based on both facts and logic. If you will bother learning the basics and have any ability to think for yourself you can make a lot of money from the chumps whining about Bitcon and Crimex. I go into it in detail in my two investment books and if you haven’t read them, it means you are the chump that my readers and I will profit by your stupidity.
Full article with charts:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty120322.html
Precious Metals: Rocket Launch Now
Morris Hubbartt
trading@superforcesignals.com
trading@superforce60.com
Super Force Precious Metals Video Analysis
Morris Hubbartt
Dec 2, 2022
Here are today's videos and charts. The videos are viewable on mobile phones as well as computers. Double-click to enlarge the charts.
SGS Key Charts, Signals, & Video Analysis
Super Force Signals (SFS) is being rebranded as Super Gold Signals (SGS at https://supergoldsignals.com), to reflect the growing global importance of gold.
Article with charts:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt120222.html
Gold 15 and 40 yr seasonal chart:
http://www.321gold.com/charts/seasonal_gold.html
Reducing my GDX & PHYS positions today hoping to get a better bite - we’ll see how it goes.
Gold and Gold Stocks Approach Resistance
NOVEMBER 29, 2022
JORDAN ROY-BYRNE CMT, MFTA
https://thedailygold.com/gold-and-gold-stocks-approach-resistance/