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Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
BOARD IS DEAD! What happened to Lerogee?
any company with decent spread, OI and Volume. How to define that is up to each of us.
How are you doing?
I doubt anyone has tracked that. How do you define "big" versus "small"??
I am sure you have your own defintion of "big" and "small" so why don't you test it and let us know what you find. ;)
Yes, I am just starting to really look into using the Option Calculator to pick a put or call the night before earnings announcements.
So far it looks encouraging.
I asked here a couple of weeks ago if anyone joined and how they are doing...no replies.
I also asked the same under OptionTrader333's post on Stockfetcher...no replies there either.
Use this email....
yy4this@gmail.com
Post a message here to let me know you emailed me since i don't check that email box very often.
Rick
I hate to post my email on a public board since it could be picked up by spammers.
Can you use Skype and chat? Rick.Parsons67 is my username.
Thanks,
Rick
Anyone accept Lerogee's $500 coaching offer?
How is it going so far?
Rick
I sent you a Skype message.
I think Skype is more popular these days. Easy to download and setup.
Can you guys use Skype?
I would be interested.
RE: dia is 10 mil+ but buys/sells are showing only around 200 thousand a piece
The Streamer webpage is not matching the Trades webpage.
I have seen this before and I am sending a screenshot to support@advfn.com.
It's obviously a bug!
Nice catch!
Rick
RE: stockbee market monitor
What is this?
Thanks,
Rick
RSI(2) Daily and Weekly are above 90
Possible top?
InvestorHub (ADVFN) streamer shows SPY down volume as 59%, up volume 28& as of 9am this morning. Let's if this changes when the market opens.
Symbol RSI(2)........RSI(2)Weekly
SPY 96.58.........90.70
SDS 3.79.........9.01
QID 1.13.........9.02
QLD 91.73.........98.97
My stockfetcher filter shows 98 stocks over RSI(2)90 vs. 58 under RSI(2)10.
Rick
It's quiet here...anyone still here?
Contact Support@advfn.com
re: download those columns to spreadsheet?
Click on FILE, then DOWNLOAD AS....
I am not following any particualar schedule to update the spreadsheets.
Perhaps someone can help out to make the updates more consistant. If anyone wants to help, reply to this message.
Thanks,
Rick
List of Weekly Options available:
http://www.cboe.com/publish/weelkysmf/weeklysmf.xls
RE: add up to larger than 100 percent?
You're welcome!
Add Column O to Column P...what do they add up to? ;)
Rick
RE: how this give the probablility of the market going up/down
It is all a matter of supply and demand, right?
Everyone wants to buy calls when they think the market is going up.
So if the demand for calls is greater than puts, calls are overvalued and that is bullish.
When Puts are overvalued is bearish. When both are undervalued, which one is the least undervalued?
https://spreadsheets2.google.com/ccc?key=tIAljT2xmkKr23UVnDJUSWQ&authkey=CJCWi_0B#gid=0
Now look at columns O and P to see whether the call or put dominates. Think it through for all call vs put scenerios...undervalued/undervalued, undervalued/overvalued, overvalued/undervalued, overvalued/overvalued. Which is bearish, which is bullish?
Is it 100% accurate? Probably not...nothing is. It is just a guide. One of many tools you can use to make your own decisions on your next trade.
You won't "get it" until you take time to really think it through.
Rick
Option Calculator posts...
Start with post 507 and look at posts after that by WebX99.
There may be a few posts prior to 507 also.
I know it is not something that is easy to understand at first. That is why I built the spreadsheets. It helped my break it down step by step and understand how it works.
Explaining it to others is not so easy. I hope my posts help you.
Thanks,
Rick
RE: Please tell me post numbers that are best
It would take me just as much time to find them as it would take you. LOL!
Do a search for "option calculator".
Rick
RE: i thought entry was on the rsi 2 daily
You can do that..depends on your time frame. If you want to "scalp" intraday, you need to use intraday time frames. If you want to hold for days...you can use RSI 2 daily etc.
RIGHT ON, Lerogee!!
I was looking at the wrong options...I was looking at next week's weeklys. Should have used this weeks weeklys even though they expire today!
Around 11:35am
4/21 weeklys: Low .10 High 1.38 = 1280% gain !
4/29 weeklys: Low 1.95 High 2.10 = 8% gain.
5/21 options: Low 3.6 High 5.4 = 13.8% gain.
I know you can't get the exact high/low but this shows where the biggest gains will be.
A lesson learned!
Rick
RE: why a buy if not near lower linear regression channel line?
On my TOS chart for 2days/10min candles, MCP hits the Lower LR line at 9:50 and 10am.
Rick
RE: how is the conclusion figured bull/bear/or neutral.
"why should it be bullish if puts underpriced? "
Which line are you referring to?
236% is not really a probability in a strict statistical sense.
It is just a comparison of puts vs. calls.
Go back and read prior posts on this. There is a lot posted on this already.
Thanks,
Rick
RE: Is it possible to break down what this means?
He is using the Option Calculator. Search past posts for "Option Calculator".
how did you come up with 62%?
See this link and catch up on the posts related to this topic.
https://spreadsheets2.google.com/ccc?key=tIAljT2xmkKr23UVnDJUSWQ&authkey=CJCWi_0B#gid=0
formula in cell e1:
Cell E1 is a direct quote from Lerogee.
Basically if the put and call are both underpriced, that means they are selling both.
If the calls are the least underpriced that means the selling pressue on the calls is not as heavy as on the puts. So this would be bullish.
Clear as mud? LOL!
Rick
Best to ask support that question.
Their service and support is good. However I find their charts and streamers constantly freeze and have to be restarted.
DDE is just a piece of software that pulls the real time data into an Excel spreadsheet.
See: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=51317490
and...
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=dde_documentation
And yes, I am mainly using it for the buy/sell volume.
Rick.
RE: any other site besides advfn with the buy/sell volume ratio
I have Googled for this but have not found anything yet. Doesn't mean there is not some other place out there.
What you can do is buy the real time data from ADVFN for $9.99/mo. and then rent their DDE for $20/mo. This will allow you to stream the buy/sell volume into a spreadsheet and customize it for your needs.
I am considering trying this out. I should be able to do more detailed tracking...such as large block trades and graph the changes etc.
Rick
RE: view the indicator values on advfn.com charts?
I don't think there is any way to do this.
Sent an email to support@advfn.com and request this feature.
Rick
Option Calculator Updated.
I am back from 4 days for golfing. Actually 3 days since I ran into a large dog on Interstate 77 in WVA. It busted my radiator!
https://spreadsheets2.google.com/ccc?key=tIAljT2xmkKr23UVnDJUSWQ&authkey=CJCWi_0B#gid=0
If anyone has the option calculations from Thurs or Friday, let me know and I will update the spreadsheet.
Thanks,
Rick
Re: adding a column that describes the next days actual
Hmmm...that is a good idea.
Help me think this thru...
I am not consistent at what time of the day I post these results.
Some are premarket, some during the market, some post market.
If I recall correctly, Lerogee says he does his calculations 10 minutes before the close.
What time of the day would be best for the next days results?
Rick
Re: "How do you use columns O and P?"
Also see Post #507.
Re: "the interpretation gets confusing when the options are both undervalued or one is undervalued and the other is overvalued"
Yes it does.
Let's take line 16. Calls are underpriced (red), Puts are overpriced (green).
If calls are underpriced, they are selling calls which is bearish.
If puts are overpriced, they are buying puts which is bearish.
When you think of it in those terms, it is pretty clear. In this case I would guess it doesn't matter what columns O an P say since they confirm each other.
When both columns L and M (calls and puts) are the same color,
that means both are overpriced or both are underpriced. Then you look to columns O and P to see which one is the most strongly oversold or overpriced.
Calls most strongly overpriced: bullish
Calls most strongly underpriced: bearish
Puts most strongly overpriced: bearish
Puts most srtongly underpriced: bullish
Link to spreadsheet: https://spreadsheets2.google.com/ccc?key=tIAljT2xmkKr23UVnDJUSWQ&authkey=CJCWi_0B#gid=0
Keep the questions coming! We all learn together.
P.S I'll be out of town Thurs and Friday and most likely not be able to update the spreadsheet those days.
Rick
Re: "shouldn't line 10 be Bulish?"
Yes, you are right, line 10 should be bullish. I misread that one!
RE: "I’m not trying to bust you up"...
Hey, no problem at all. You're forcing me to rethink everthing...which I need to do. It's a good exercise for both of us.
Let me continue this thread tomorrow morning...I need to get my beauty rest! :)
Rick
"How are you using these numbers?"
Column N is =L7+M7 13.67
Column O is =L7/N7 67.15%
Column P is =M7/N7 32.85%
------
Column O+P = 100.00%
I am not sure if columns O and P are true "probabilities" althought that is what Lerogee calls it.
In row 7, O and P columns simply say that 67.15% of column N is calls, 32.85% of column N is puts. Just a way to put perspective on the difference between the two.
If the columns are red, the option is undervalued due to selling. If the columns are green, they are overvalued due to buying.
Having said that, row 8 is overvalued. The prices are higher than the T value. Of the total overvaluation (column N), calls take up 69.68% of this overvaluation. This means there is more buying of calls than puts which should be bullish.
Did I answer your question? I apologize if I am not 100% sure what you are asking.
Thanks,
Rick
RE: double check your spreadsheet.
I assume the formula is correct, and we are talking about how to intrepret the results.
I'll try to walk thru the way I see the results. As you mentioned, we'll use line 7 of this spreadsheet:
https://spreadsheets2.google.com/ccc?key=tIAljT2xmkKr23UVnDJUSWQ&authkey=CJCWi_0B#gid=0
If there is selling of options, that means three things:
1) People are closing out options they bought earlier
2) or people are selling options to earn a premium.
3) Prices of the options will fall and may be worth less than theoretical value.
(A) If it is calls being sold, this indicates traders expect the market to go down.
(B) If it is puts being sold, this indicated traders expect the market to go up.
Am I right so far?
Looking at line 7, the calls are 9% undervalued and the puts are 4.5% undervalued both due to selling.
Since the calls are more undervalued than the puts, they are being more agressively sold. Referring to sentence (A) above, they expect the market to go down...so this is bearish.
You stated "the one that is being sold the least aggressively is the option to buy. " That is correct. In this case puts are the ones to buy because the market is bearish.
Are we on the same page after all?
Thanks for the feedback...keep the comments coming.
Rick
I could be wrong but I don't think there is any other way than to use a URL.
You can use a service such as SNAGIT.com to capture and store your images and get an URL.
Post 484 is an URL. You can tell when you look at the "subject" line for the post...before you click on it to open it.
Rick