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If I told you after the "famous BFS" nearly 18 months ago that the stock would plunge to 25 cents, would you have believed me? I wouldn't. But we are here.
This stock is going to plunge below 20 cents guaranteed. The latest presentation continuously keeps sliding all timings to the right. Notice how Farhad has nicely sized blocks for every quarter that is past, and a single block representing 2 years all together! Production target silently keeps moving away. No doubt this company will eventually be prosperous but in the mean time it is nothing but holes in the sand. Sold all and will revisit in another year, probably at the same price.
So Western Potash has taken off, over 60 cents from low 30's, without any significant news other than the AGM. Allana, still no money to finance a mine a full year after the BFS, hoping to secure financing by the fall which is nearly a year late, still trading in low 40's. Once again timeline pushed to the right by the CEO. "Meeting all our milestones" I think not.
I know this will eventually lead to production. But in the mean time, years go by and this POS remains in the hole. A lot of time and money wasted on a negative return investment so far. Regret investing in this crappy project for last few years.
Holes in the sand we own. Nothing more. All that it is worth.
This quietly updated presentation shifts financing into a 1-2 years timeline, past Q4 2013. Plus, the so-called newsworthy paid-for interview is filled with "if's" about getting financing in 2014. I emailed Mr Kelertas about my timeline concerns, as well as the deceptive "interviews" flashed in front of us through Ubika/ SmallCap. I am not impressed.
As early as last week the CEO mentioned " no material adverse changes to its business plan". I'm sorry but this obvious timeline change qualifies, and big time too.
Sold a bunch of positions. This stock will tank again and stagnate longer.
Are here any other boards for members-by-invite only? One devoid of useless information? Please, someone, let me know. ;)
This clean board is turning into another Stockhouse.
Gentlemen. Please stop the nagging and empty comments that are becoming more and more common. Stick to facts, support your theories with more than IMHO, and for God's sake share pertinent information with others. Anything outside of this belongs to the other low life board.
I for one cannot explain the continuous nose dive of the SP. Important catalysts are due this month, with no delays as per the last company presentation. Every day I wait for the imminent news release.
Jean
Received this today from Mr Kelertas, answers to my questions as to what's happening with turtle pace financing and why is SP so low:
"Jean:
We are progressing with our negotiations with strategic investors on our equity financing requirements , and as well are moving forward rapidly with our bank debt arrangements . The various export development banks involved will be revealed when all is finalized, as per their request. Our sp is not reflective of all the milestones we have achieved so far, nor for the milestones that are about to be completed. Since we can’t provide selective disclosure, we will announce our next milestone when completed.
Tls for your continued support....."
Looking at the news release claimed Uralkali production cost of $65 per tonne, I must deduce that if it is correct, it is at the plant FOB and not at main market distribution hub. Reading into it on their website, the raw material is 300-400 meters deep, and is manually excavated then sent to the surface via conveyor belts. Then a complex chemical process takes place to separate the valuable material from the rock itself.
I fail to see how this process can cost so little per ton, compared to AAA solution mining and virtually zero energy cost solar evaporation ponds. I can see manpower costs in Russia dirt cheap, around the same for Ethiopian labour force.
In the wake of this cartel breakdown, I think AAA will weather the storm and progress to production. The low CAPEX and OPEX will surely secure financing shortly and still represent a golden opportunity even at $300 per ton.
When I look at all the facts and figures, I cannot help but get a really good feeling about AAA:
- Management is solid with experience
- The goods are physically in the ground, measured quantities not just guesses
- Cost to build a mine under 1B as opposed to 2+B for others
- Enough material to run a mine for 30+ years
- Production costs as low as it can possibly get
- Produce at $100/ ton, sell at $450/ ton = massive profit
- Mine permit around the corner
- Project significantly derisked
- Financing interests on verge of confirmation
- Milestones being met in sequence
- Not a single bad news
- No insider selling ever
Think that FA would buy back shares right now, since an official financing news release is certain to be due within a few weeks.
IMHO this will turn into a giant, and with a SP around 50 cents it is an amazing opportunity. Good grief, time to buy like crazy!!!
We've all been waiting for catalysts which would propulse the SP out of the slum. But nada so far despite a ton of positive news. The next big news is a sort of firm and definite commitment to finance the mine, or someone else wanting to buy Allana as a whole. The first one, in my opinion, would send the SP in the 60's and a gradual build up. The second one would have a set price per share, certainly not at 40 cents but more like $3 a share. Any other news are irrelevant unless they're negative....come think of it we've never had negative news.
This NCIB is a good thing since the SP is super low and they have the cash to buy back and reduce dilution for shareholders. Was wondering if today would be the beginning of it, as it starts May 1st and still very low 40's. But apparently not. The wizards of AAA are not ready yet. There's always tonorrow!
Vale's $6B project is in the toilet, and they have to pay and stay for a while. One less competitor. Makes AAA $700M project look like a walk in the park. Small AAA insider buying of common shares. Much sooner than later this puppy will start coming around!
This POS is becoming more and more irritating. News release, drilling results, BFS, ESHIA, you name it. Nothing sticks and SP hitting lows below the speculation years BEFORE any measured quantities confirmed, before TSX listing, before the first hard shelter instead of a tent over there. Feels like AAA is plagued with lepracy and no one wants to get close. We literally own nothing more than holes in the sand which in the end are just that. Perhaps the market cap should be around 500K and SP of 5 cents more realistic. My confidence in Farhad and this project is taking a serious beating. I'm sure I'm not the only one whose patience is being put to a real test...
From Mr Kelertas today when I asked about the continued softness of the soft financial commitments......
"As you can appreciate....the financial institutions that have given their soft commitments to the debt portion of our project financing are in the process of doing their due diligence to turn these "soft" commitments into "firm" ones. As part of this, they need to review the recently released FS. While we released an executive summary on Feb 4th....they require a full review of the complete set of documents and all the supporting technical info/data. The full /complete reports will be ready before the end of this week(March 21) and will be posted on SEDAR on or before that date. The banks will then be able to complete their DD(using an independent evaluation team) and we expect their decision in approx. 6-8 weeks.
As soon as we can, we will announce this milestone in our development. This is all laid out in our timeline chart at the end of our corporate presentation .....found on our website."
The fact that Ubika has been paid by Allana completely voids the credibility of this "news" release. The SP over $3 does not align with the multiple predictions over $1 of all other research firms not on the payroll.
Don't get me wrong, it is still well undervalued at this time. But lets call a spade a spade.
jean
Very disappointed by the persistent downturn of this company. Absolutely nothing good sticks to the stock price. We own nothing more than holes in the sand, and until money is confirmed to build a mine with first shovel about to be in the ground it will remain a worthless investment. That means at least another year of vegetative financial stagnation. These "soft" commitments have had time since the BFS to solidify but absolutely nothing. Time to put money elsewhere.
So far I'm not too impressed with the market's reaction to this FS. All the indicators are good, mine construction costs are low, all numbers great. Yet we barely move. Catalysts have zero effect. Will they ever?
Judging by the new AAA presentation, Farhad has the BFS in hand and extracted some key figures such as CAPEX and OPEX for the presentation. At $91 per ton FOB Djibouti, that is excellent news.
Again we wait for the market to react positively when it hits the street. And possibly news of a potential takeover will start the escalation of SP. Thoughts?
May go to Toronto for the annual meeting....anyone else?
Jean
2012 has been a year of continuous good news coupled with a steady decline of SP. But in the end we should not be surprised as AAA follows very nicely the model of a junior mining company before production. I believe we are at the bottom of the curve and 2013 will bring another pile of good news, but this time with a solid BFS and all other important variables in place this will steadily climb back up to interesting levels.
All of us here know the potential, the leadership, and the financial support to come. Q1/ Q2 will be really good.
I'm guessing OPEX and transport to storage for shipping will run under $90/ ton. With a market price over $450/ ton this simple equation spells profits everywhere. I'm throwing everything but the kitchen sink at this.....Wild ride to come!
Jean
Not sure about this Salman Buy recommendation. Even though I agree with the Buy, I question their credibility. A few weeks ago they traded 500K shares same day back and forth same price. Today they release another Buy, and mention Q1 2013 for BFS....where did they read that?? Todays release mentions on track, which is this quarter. And wasn't there a positive report release from them a few months ago, which also indicated that they were on Allana's payroll? Or am I mistaken?
Jean
Quite a surge of volume all of a sudden, yet SP stays at .50
Feels like volume manipulation from above....thoughts?
Jean
I've got a new slogan for Allana:
"Allana Teflon Corporation
Not even the best of news sticks to us"
:)
Gents.
Glad to see that I've generated some discussion on AAA. I especially liked WSHAW14's comment on RAGI's post. Honestly and humbly I must admit I saw a bit of myself in there as I started buying Allana's shares a few months before the 43-101 was out, on the rise. Then it steadily declined, exactly as the junior mining cycle depicts, up to this point, once the speculation post 43-101 ended. Sold some and bought some at all ranges. In a way I was stupid and justified my stupidity much like Ragis did. I read a lot of opinions on this board and others, and was attracted by the proposed SP of a producing company.
My research really sucked I'd say and what started as a hopeful quick eyewatering ROI turned out to be a several years affair. My dumbness forced me to move long. But in the process I became more aware, better educated and with an intrinsic knowledge of AAA since I study it daily. Despite being overall in the red with this company, I seriously think it will explode into a giant and be extremely profitable.
All this to say I have no problem admitting I was an idiot. We still own holes in the sand in a godforsaken land. But underneath the ground lays a tremendous potential which IMO will be exploited and generously fill our pockets.
Jean
I would like comments of fellow board members, based on critical thinking, on the following topics:
1. Why is the SP so low?
IMO with a market cap of $123M for nothing more than holes in the sand and a bunch of temporary buildings and a few evaporation ponds, that's about what it's worth at best. There are no guarantees anywhere that this will turn into a mine. Just speculative rumours.
2. What do you anticipate the SP to be come year end, hopefully after the BFS and ES are released?
IMO the SP will close around .70 31 Dec. The BFS will pump the price up perhaps passed that mark, but like all past news releases not enough to trigger a vertical non stop ascent.
3. What will trigger surpassing $1.00?
IMO either one of these two will be the catalyst: Hard commitment from a bank or institution to provide $600M for mine construction after BFS, OR takeover offer from a bigger player who wants to absorb AAA.
4. Do you see anything that could derail this project and turn into nothing?
IMO this venture has gone too far to backtrack and abandon the project. There are too many positives like bank commitments, good leadership, abundance of confirmed resources, proximity of target market, low production costs, incessant demand for food fertilizers etc. I could see infrastructure being an issue, for instance building a mine in the middle of the desert through tender offers, transportation to distribution centers, power supply etc. But from what I've seen so far, my confidence level is high that there will be a mine cheaply pumping out potash within 24 months from now.
5. Is Allana a good investment both for short term and long term?
IMO since we are at the eve of significant events within the next 7 weeks, that the SP is near an all time low of the last few years, and that AAA follows very nicely the typical cycle of a developing mining company, returns of 15-20% can be realized short term before 2013, and multiple 100%'s before 2014. So as of this point, yes to both short and long term. I have elected to go long term, all or nothing type. Get filthy rich or lick myself and post a huge capital loss. But that's my choice :)
Feel free to comment or add other topics. There is intelligence here while I find Stockhouses' board devoid of any credibility for the most part.
Jean
More news.......result from the analyst tour, from Mr Kelertas fresh off the press.
Although pretty much everything is "good", these analysts have not, for the most part, rushed to produce any article to tell the world this junior is the next Google of mining. Wonder if it was worth the time and cash.....
Jean
•Allana Potash concluded their Fall 2012 Analyst Site Tour last week (October 16-19). The Company hosted several analysts in Ethiopia for a tour of its Dallol Potash Project. Analysts from the following investment dealers were in attendance: Raymond James, Salman Partners, and Fraser Mackenzie.
?
"We are pleased to have had an opportunity to host analysts on a site visit of Allana's Dallaol Potash Project and would like to thank our guests for joining us on the tour. The trip was successful as we were able to demonstrate advances the Company has made towards our project milestones. The Allana management team remains confident that we are on target to deliver the project towards its stated production mandate."
- Richard Kelertas, Vice President Corporate Development, Allana Potash Corp.
Highlights from the trip included:
•Meetings with senior government officials including;
•Mrs. Sinknesh Ejigu, Minister of Mines- Discussed the governments commitment towards moving Ethiopia from agricultural to industrial economy and providing support to companies such as Allana.
•David Usher, Canadian Ambassador to Ethiopia - Gained insight into Canada's perspective of Ethiopia, as well as local support for Allana Potash.
•Getachew Betru, General Manager of the Ethiopia Railways Corporation - Discussed increasing and advancing transportation through Ethiopia and proposed rail lines that would benefit Allana's Dallol Potash Project.
•Dallol Potash Project, Site Visit demonstrated the Company's progress in Technical Work, including:
•A trip to the Solution Mining Wells;
•Pilot Evaporation Ponds - the company has completed a trial with six pilot evaporation ponds and has observed strong evaporation rates.
•Water Well Drilling Site, where Allana has completed 15 of 18 holes drilled on the alluvial fan. The analysts saw first hand that the preliminary tests are encouraging and all holes have encountered water.
•Site visitors were also able to see the extensive infrastructure work to the project, and the progress towards completely the Bankable Feasibilty Study year end.
Overall this trip provided positive insight into the Company's path to production. Photos of the Tour will be available on the Company's website in the upcoming weeks www.allanapotash.com
You are welcomed. Just keeping a close eye on this baby. I believe in due time it will come to fruition.
Jean
Below is a communique I received from Mr Kelertas today as I had requested a few clarifications on certain points. Sharing his response with all of you as part of DD:
1. We fully expect to close the Nova acquisition by month end(October). There were normal legal and paperwork delays, but nothing serious. We will be able to formally announce the closing of this transaction as soon as it is complete.
2. With regard to the BFS, our timeline (and we are still on track)is to complete all the necessary work and have Ercosplan deliver us the final report by year end. We will press release it when we review and sign off on it. We might have a delay of a week or two because of the holiday season, however we should be on time barring any unforeseen delays.
3. As you already know from a previous press release, BNP and a syndicate of international banks have given us soft commitments for over US$600 million (subject to the successful completion of the BFS and other due diligence items) towards the debt portion of the project financing requirements. We are also working towards securing the equity portion of the project financing thorough off-takes and other vehicles. We will inform the street as soon as something definitive is secured. We are working diligently towards this .
4. I will send you a broker report from our recent site tour. We also issued a email summary on Friday. In all, the tour was successful and participants saw that Allana is on track with all its field testing programs and site development work.
5. Most of the recent share price weakness can be attributed to the poor Potash Corp earnings numbers and weak guidance for the balance of the year. The street began discounting fert/ag/jr potash plays a few weeks before in anticipation of these declining numbers.
6. As per our last quarterly update, we had over C$ 50 million cash.
IMHO Nova's announcement next week will not do a thing to the SP. Even completion of the BFS/ ES may shake it up a little but marginally. It's the announcement of confirmed mine construction funding and/or bid to takeover that will set the spark in the short term.
I hate to see WPX go through up and down permutations where shorts would have paid off but instead I'm committed longs with AAA, which at best stagnates right now. I do believe this project will see completion and that's what keeps me in. Pain now for gain later.
This lack of news about Nova worries me. There has been regular press releases about ongoing activities, and this huge Nova deal with a due date last week has been left in the dark. Then, this analyst tour yielded very little news coverage, nothing reported which was not already known. Meanwhile, the SP dropped .10 over a few weeks. Good news is that despite a brutal day on the markets today, the share price did not tumble anymore. Is that a consolation? Am I the only one feeling like this?
Jean
The market is looking for sure bets right now, like companies who post positive financial statements. The holes-in-the-sand-to-be-maybe-mega-rich companies offer little attraction. Once the BFS comes out it should spike but unless a takeover bid comes up or we start pumping out potash for resale, have a comfortable seat at a low SP....
The webcast yesterday from Toronto was very interesting I thought. Farhad moved from the possibility of opening a mine to "we will open a mine" even before the BFS and all other pieces of the puzzle fall into place. The acquisition of Nova, although it most likely contains mineral resources, is above all the insurance policy on water availability for the project. They mentioned that without Nova, there is a 10 yrs reserve of water at capacity even if not a drop of rain falls over the next 10 years due to alluvial flows. Very good as without water= no evaporation ponds and a lot more cost to produce. Cash in the bank should be more than 22 M after BFS and environmental studies completed. Market is still waiting for more news before it generates SP increase. Lots of good stuff. Nothing I can see, short of getting $$$ to build a mine, that will prevent this project from completion. Keep buying folks....it will be a few years until we break $10 but that will only be the beginning....
Any of you planning on going to Toronto 5 Sep for these live AAA presentations?
Oh I like how today is turning out so far.....could this be the start of the steady rise that we've been waiting for? :)
Reading on Mr Kellertas and where he came from, I was surprised to see him leave Dundee amidst the Sino Forest fraud report filed from Muddy Waters last year. For those who followed that file, Mr Kellertas voiced his unconditional support for Sino Forest saying that the allegations from Muddy Waters were a "pile of crap". Since then the company has been delisted, all its board of directors are facing heavy lawsuits, all stockholders have lost hundreds of millions of dollars and the OSC clearly indicated that the company was indeed a fraud of large proportions. Looks like this time he sided with the wrong guys. Thankfully I bought and sold this stock at a good profit before OSC pulled the plug.
I like his agressive approach with Allana. I guess we all make bad calls once in a while, especially when scoping hundreds of companies. For all of us DD.
Jean
Checking out the new corporate presentation and I noticed that open-pit mining does not figure anymore as a possibility for extracting the mineral. Solution mining is the only reference presented. Did I miss that somewhere in a communique over the past months?
Very excited that mine construction talks figure as early as H2 next year......boy by end of 2013 this puppy should have taken off gracefully and steadily I think. Crunching my own numbers without any rail support and under current measured and inferred quantities, at over $500 a ton, the SP should float well over $40 by end 2015. So from 50 cents to $40 a share, this cheap investment has all the makings of a monster moneymaker.
The new VP is doing a fantastic job of promoting AAA as well. Looks like a smart choice.
Jean
Wow.....that video of Farhad was very motivating. Talked about offtake and other catalysts that will surely derisk this project and propulse it further...this year! Mmmm I like this.
Gents I will definitely keep my day job...for the time being that is. My predictions last week were out to lunch and I'm glad on two counts....first, that I was wrong and second, that I stocked up huge at .48
I'm convinced to sit my fat ass on the whole pile and watch my future mine cheaply pump out very expensive potash :)
Jean
Believe me I am a strong proponent of Allana. I'm just looking back a year ago and nobody except a few ones on this site would have thought that we'd slide well below $1. And we're there now. I do know that the potential is enormous but once again there's no income or real estate or assets other than a few drills and a whole bunch of soil samples. On paper it looks awesome and it will be awesome in a few years. That's why it's worth 50 cents right now and will remain around that for some time.
You'd think that on a really positive market day like today and a monster announcement that we'd be rocketed upwards. This is quite modest I'd say. Can't imagine if the market started in the red this morning....up a penny maybe but shakey.
Just remember 10 months ago when the 43-101 came out....was trading over $2.25 then steadily declined to todays value. The measured quantity went up an amazing 90% today yet stock price persists just over 50 cents. The cataclyst will be when the decision is formal to start building a mine. Unless a takeover occurs its still time to buy cheap for a while. And for those on margins well tough luck....
I'm afraid that despite this good news the stock will return to the 40-50 cents area and stay there for another year or so....In the end, this company amounts to nothing more than a bunch of holes in the sand at the present time. I certainly agree that the potential is immense if not gigantic but with production a few years away its current value only makes sense.
I can easily project a $50 stock value at a minimum by 2015.
I have a strong position with AAA and intend to see it through or lose it all....
Stock is reaching lower and lower value....did I make the right choice by selling most of it this week? Perhaps for the next 9-12 months. In the mean time cash for other purchases.
Jean