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only if the share price gets to $7.50 in the next 12 months, otherwise he only gave himself 750,000 options.
sorry Jack dont see any news in that “bot” piece just analysis past stock prices and analysts forecasts
they listened to Sanjay….. Had Georgia been nline at 15 TPG by end Q2 then Q3 and Q4 worries wouldn't have happened
Yes, they stopped the expansion at Georgia just like Texas and NY Stamp until they get project financing loan from the DOE.
I would expect the Georgia expansion to be the first to completion as much of the infrastructure is in place.
It will be interesting to see when PLUG decides they can start these projects, the loan should give. them 80% of what they have spent on Texas already upfront. I don't think they are getting anything for the current Georgia 15 TPD facility
Texas is important due to the customers they have there, dont really want to truck liquid H2 form Georgia to Dallas.
Earnings call will be very interesting and the tax credit news may be significant as well
this is good news for PLUG and many other companies.
no just finalize the 45V credits so we can convert them to cash
what they are saying is that :
a) they need to have more shares to cover already committed convertible notes and employee option plans.
b) they dont need to sell shares immediately as they have c 12 months cash
c) They may need to access the market later in the year and have to have the ability to do so.
Most businesses once their O/S gets to 80% of the A/S will be looking at R/S options like Nikola did.
RS does NOT affect authorized shares. That will stay at 1.6bn
Normally this allows the company to raise a lot more cash.
NKLA has stated that is not the purpose of the split and to show their intention are REDUCING the AS after the split.
Very few companies do that.
no you need to understand how Pink sheets are even allowed to trade, all filings are made to OTCMarkets com for pink sheets.
SIRC doesnt “report” to the SEC, has no obligations there so dont expect 8K. 10Q or 10A forms. just what the OTC Market wants them to say.
they are in fact REDUCING the number of authorized shares(A/S) not issuing any (O/S)
They probably already are over the 1.6BN if you count all the shares promised in convertibles and in stock options to the board/officers
Hence the need to restructure the shares - a reverse split give them opportunity to reduce the authorized shares
they plan these things our months in advance - like they know they next 12 months cash or easily accessible funding on a rolling basis. I am assuming they cash for this year but may have to sell more shares in an ATM to get cash required for 2025. we will hear more at the earnings call.
R/S will not dilute and that is what they have said so far. it will guarantee Nasdaq listing and give access to cash if needed
That is good news indeed. An idea when they will hit the financials as revenue or do we wait until completed and just the generation revenues comes in?
i thought the main hydrogen production discussions were with NuScale Energy for use with Nuclear reactors very promising except the US doesn't seem to want to have nuclear unlike the rest of the world.
Not seen anything with Exxon for producing hydrogen nor Shell for that matter - they like to create blue hydrogen and may use CCS from FCEL but not to produce the hydrogen itself. very different solutions.
FCEL has proven one-off capabilities for producing hydrogen efficiently (SOFCis in fact much better than Tri-gen for pure hydrogen production).
But the article was about the use of fuel cells on trucks and buses.
Trcuk companies will buy from roadside hydrogen companies just like diesel trucks fill up at flying J and other truck stops.
Companies like HYLA will buy their hydrogen from whoever - and it currently isn't green but most operators would like to use green hydrogen if available
Which companies are FCEL working with to build hydrogen production facilities to then supply the likes of HYLA?
Answer - none….
Hence FCEL not in the trucking either for the fuel cells or the fuel.
Doesn't look like these grants are using any of “our tech”
Please tell me what secret products FCEL has for the trucking and transit industry.
waiting for the financials to show the benefits of these contract announcements
have already sold portions of my position to make a lot so now letting the rest ride whatever wave will happen
PLUG has done everything right as far as markets or its products - read Crossing the chasm and The Gorilla Game for confirmation.
we explicitly decided not to enter the heavy mobile market (buses, trucks trains ships etc) by ourselves (we do have JV s of course where the expertise in those vehicles exists but are using a generic fuel cell “motor” not custom ones like Ballard has). As Ballard are finding out even promises of 500-1000 units dont make the product line profitable.
After securing the Material handling market the generation of hydrogen to supply those customers is a great adjacent pin. Our electrolyzers are second to none. Thats why you see them being used in projects around the world - especially in Europe. They may not be the cheapest but they work and PLUG knows what is needed to make a project successful.
Material Handling GenDrives and electrolysers make 20-30% gross margins so are pretty good businesses. Hopefully the new factories mean that large stationary fuel cells will also be when they roll out in any volume.
By choosing partners for things like the aircraft industry and last mile delivery we share the risks and costs involved.
If only Sanjay hadnt been so confident in the date to get production plants up and running we wouldn't be in this mess. Permitting delays hit all our sites - and will do in the future until the govt sorts this out (see Senator Manchkin). New York is now 2 years late had it been on time we would be selling to third parties 50% of the hydrogen we produce for nice hefty margins.
but if the RS goes through without the REDUCTION in A/S count they could issue 1.44BN shares.
RS does not affect the Authorized count unless specifically stated - which is what NKLA are doing.
Given they arent being forced to R/S from a share availability point of view they just want their SP to be over $5
IMHO they wont do a RS as the next quarter results and forecasts should be sufficient to get the SP back to around $3 and hen over $5 after Q2 results
But they have to go to the annual meeting to ask just incase they do. it is extremely expensive to do it at another time of year.
I will vote for allowing he board if they decide they need it to do it.
by reducing the authorized count it is another indication they are NOT doing this to be able to issue gazzillions of shares but to price the shares so they are listed and available to investment firms
trying to recall company who did this successfully a few years ago.
wish they didnt have the Milton issues to put up with and could focus on execution and getting supply chain up to a suitable volume per month.
they aren’t doing it for cash - not being forced on them by any fully converted calculations like you see in pink sheets.
this (if they do it) is purely for maintaining NASDAQ compliance and visibility with more firms who have artificial restrictions on < $5 or <$10 stocks
pretty sure the DOE have already approved it but it has to go to Congress (the OMB in particular) for approval, that is what we are waiting for.
At that point they start drawing up the detailed loan paperwork and fixing the numbers.
I can imagine the OMB is asking the DOE - why not 6 separate loans not one big one…
check SEC filings of th eprospectus.
The R/S is a formality as they can only get approval at shareholder meetings so best to use the annual one.
it states its purpose is to regain NASDAQ compliance if necessary and to make shares more visible to institutions
It does not compel the board to reverse split
Assuming deliveries and returns of BEV 2.0 go according to plan with no new issues the SP may well recover enough to minimise the chance of the R/S
sure if these all happen they will have to get interest free cash via the ATM.
I have my lottery ticket and if I win can offer Andy a few hundred million at lower %age than DOE..
by Jan 2026 I would expect PLUGs SP to rise more %age wise than Nikola.
Nikola is in 2 product markets and one geography. PLUG in what 8 product markets and global presence? Will depend on how much dilution is needed to keep paying their running costs before profitability.
well it would give them a better chance of being successful and the market would like it reflecting in a better SP.
But the current team may make it, their chances reflected in current SP.
Had it not been for the 2 year delay in NY and 12 months in Georgia (plus 6 more for he final testing set up) they wouldn’t be in he cash strapped position they are now. These were external delays but should have been in their plans (Sanjay too overconfident). We might them be saying we have a wonderful C Suite...
Where is the board of directors though they should be addressing this. Is George too weak or too much the status quo guy?
I agree, except Andy needs to be there just not as CEO - he is the visionary but hasn't had the team to deliver a realistic plan to get there and stand up to Andy to tell him it would be 24 months late.
A proper CFO would help compensate for weakness in other positions along with a COO from energy market.
They need executives experienced in an energy company not a fork lift parts supplier as you always like o refer to them as.
Surprised Andy isnt moving back to Texas where he came from. Having their headquarters there would be much better.
is this related to PLUG?
not really news either as passenger cars will be a 2028 thing currently suffering from the rip off prices for gray hydrogen…. need more supply
Yes I think their current 2024 forecast is 250-300 but expect that to be increased if they get the supply chain fixed.
My suggestion of 1000 was without thinking multi shift but 800 would be great - hitting near 200 in Q4 would be a great year.
Not sure what the lead time to increase the supply chain capacity is but Nikola have a great team in place to be managing that and I am sure it is th enumber 1 issue they consider daily.
Very impressed with the management team now. If BEVs can all be returned in Q2 and sell the 100 or so in inventory my $1 calls for January will be worth a lot!
I miss Bears fly overs though - may reach out to him. to see if he can do like one a month…
quantamscape (QS) batteries heading for production quantities by end of they year. They are tied to Volkswagen and may supply others. They are only new tech battery I know anywhere near production for real world use
their forecast for Q1 was same as last year Q4 30-35 FCEV. so they exceeded forecast. Supply chain is the limiting factor - hydrogen tanks for the trucks and the battery packs. Obviously they exceeded forecast by airfreighting but it also indicates there may be better supply. Earnings call should add color to that and any update to the year forecast. AFAIK they can make well over 1000 if they had the parts. orders are not an issue
amazing response to a late filing - up over 50%
glad I kept 50% after the last spike
on this we agree!
Sanjays strategy badly played out so he was demoted (lost the control of H2 production) after he under estimated the permitting and other pre-construction tasks leading to 6-12 month delay on Georgia, Texas and NY before the cash crunch.
he still runs the Electrolyser manufacturing business which involves supplying many non-PLUG projects and our JVs which Ole was better qualified to do
Part of PLUGs ROI formula was to not pay APD or LIN $10+ /kg for gray hydrogen but make green/blue for $5
But once that is covered (OLIN may provide their daily needs) it does get harder to justify.
Big question for the board. If you win the Powerball would you approach Andy to finance NY Stamp and lease it back - or something similar?
great to see them publishing these number just like real vehicle manufacturers.
should have a good reaction - higher than forecast and confirmation that BEV 2.0 is happening.
lets get back above 1 and stay there this time. Close above $1.50 in the next few days should create a support level above $1.
I think it would help if they published quarterly production numbers in the days after quarter end like the automobile manufacturers do.
It would indicate they consider them selves as mainstream manufacturer not a start up any more.
Until a sequence of quarterlies indicate margin improvements allowing analysts to see the breakeven coming up they will keep low, very similar to PLUG but a much simpler model to look at. They need supply chain issues to be sorted out as they could be making at lest one FCEV a day but seems they are restrained to the 40-50/qtr by the hydrogen tank and battery suppliers.
the new notes were “Announced” a week or more ago though. They may have now been issued but that shouldn't affect the SP today.
it has been generally a good day for hydrogen stocks and we know PLUG seems to have the highest beta amongst them. more social media posts from Euorpe and India may be getting shorts worried that there will be enough business outside the USA to compensate.
They got out of paying an end of march interest on the old notes though
they have other more expensive options to fund the H2 plants if the DOE loan falters.
In fact I think they may have to do something over the summer like sell part of Georgia or JV for the Texas plant.
If only there was abundant H2 availability then many fuel cell applications would have shipped in Q3-Q1 from inventory helping the cash balances.
many thanks for posting this, on top of last weeks news certainly gives impetus to the stock price.
Now to work out the right level to start reducing my holdings
Anyone know why the sudden price increase.. breaking above $1 is significant for a 2 day double.
They didnt do a reverse split did they?
I guess it could just be delayed response to last weeks news I can now raise my stop loss
not true
many deposits of natural hydorgen are being found because they are starting to lok for them, no one was looking for hydrogen when they were exploring for nat gas oil or coal.
it is “dirty” and I haven't seen anyone estimate the cost of extraction to clean, compress and liquify since the deposits wll not be near any demand application it has to be transported.
suspect 2028 may be for the first available and that wont be in US or Europe.
they probably are.
they can consider just refueling - PLUG delivers liquid hydorgen to the facility which stores and dispenses like a distribution center but its trucks at 700 bar not forklifts
to have a 1MW electrolyser installed would be the next step up with a lot more balance of plant required for the water and electric feed.
Amazon seem to be considering it so fleets could be asking questions at least