What LKEN will do if perhaps the Wal-mart deal goes south. My thoughts on it are as follows but, before i answer there are other more knowledgeable people on this board that could give you better insights. Ie. You are asking a blind dyslexic which way is north.
The way I have LKEN broken down is into pathways one path leads to all of us making mucho bucks and others lead us to losing lots of money and some just let it chill at its current price.
pathway 1. Wal-mart deal goes through and stock rises like "urdeep" said it would. my personal thoughts on this are unlikely because the float was increased after the stock was in the penny range. 2 other reasons listed in pathway 2
Pathway 2. Walmart deal goes through and stock rises the way my thoughts were aligned. I see it going up to the 20 cent mark because of the following reasons. 1. Float will probably be increased. 2. explosive change in the market is not going to happen over night. 3 its a walmart deal and i think there are better places for this product to be sold. The better places which i allude to are office supply stores. (office depot, staples, office max just to name a few. This places sell a lot of Ink cartridges to companies that do a lot of printing think Law firms. Engineering Firms and other firms of that nature. They also do business with 3rd party support teams that offer equipment for rent for offices. (i know this because my employer uses a 3rd party that gets its supplies from office depot). 4 Walmart likes to keep things cheap. This means that the 50 dollar price point would be up for negotiation which means that are profit margin could hit the can. 4b the proportion that LKEN gets back from its sales to Walmart becomes up for debate and Walmart takes a bigger hunk of the pie.
Pathway 3 Walmart deal goes through AND an office supply store picks up this product to supplement their ink market. This would be the ideal situation for any investor in this company. Now you have a company that specializes in INK for business who use lots of it and you have Walmart. Thus you have a commercial retailer and of course a consumer retailer. One sells a lot of the product to a few companies the other sells one package to a lot of people.
As for the stock price if this magic scenario happens. I would guess that "urdeep"'s analysis would be very conservative indeed and the 2.00 to 3.00 mark would be quite possible. Realize I have not seen any mention heard any rumor, fortune telling, air reading and or taro card thing that mentions this.
Pathway 4 Walmart deal happens and Rite Aid deal goes through. I'm considering that the stock price will be in the 25 to 40 cent range as it will have to consumer markets. But it wont be that big of a jump since rite aid wont have the draw that Wal-mart does.
Pathway 5 Walmart deal doesn't happen and Rite Aid does happen. The stock price I'm guestimating here will hover at the 4 to 10 cent range.
Pathway 6 the one you asked about. No deal going through. There is a few things that we need to keep in mind one of which the company is in debt according to its SEC filing. The 2nd is that the company mentions a 46 million dollar for casted sales. This provides for them to easily get out of debt and become quite profitable should they manage to get this number. Me I dont see that number happening without a lot of help. I see the number being half of that. So lets play devils advocate and play with the number of 23 million. This still provides the company with plenty of room to get out of debt and still be quite profitable. So depending on how sales go this company could see itself in the 5 to 10 cent range in 3 month zone. (depending of course on earnings report) Then in say a year i could definitely see it get back to the 22 cent levels it had last February.
Pathway 7 No deal goes through and they have a disaster and fail to sell anything. This im pretty sure will make the stock become worth less and have the company declare bankruptcy.
As for the likely hood of each scenario I'm not a licensed security person in any shape since of the word. I'm a sophomore in a Finance program with a C in his finance course. I believe i used logic and used all the data available to come up with my analysis. Further I think this stock will do quite well as a poor college student i sunk 300 dollars of my own money which i worked for at 8 dollars an hour for.
Comments are welcome and if i put my foot in my mouth do point it out. (nicely hopefully?)