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I hear you.
Chickpea - See "Waitforit"'s post a ways down where he referenced a post I made on another board after asking DOC that exact question. The explanation I got was that - per Dan's interactions with Merck - Merck's business development team generally only pulls the trigger on deals (ie buyouts, taking equity stakes, etc) if they see other competitors actively interested and they're forced to act, if they want to continue to work with the company. ONCS is small potato's in the grand scheme of things, but this pending deal with CGP seems to align with Dan's prior comments, and maybe his thinking.
I'm not investing in ONCS assuming Merck is going to make a competing offer, but it certainly wouldn't surprise me.
We'll see how it shakes out. IMO, with this CGP deal, ONCS is telling the market that they're open to discussing any buyout offers at a $4.50 floor.
It may bring others to the table as - pending shareholder approval - CGP is about to own 53% of ONCS for a measly $30M. Seems like if Merck had any interest at all in ONCS technology/KeyNote studies, this pending deal would bring them to the table with a competing offer. Heck, they could double or triple CGPs offer and it'd still be less than peanuts for Merck. We'll find out soon enough.
Lincoln - Thanks for that information. Based on your information - when combined with DOC's statement in the PR that ONCS does not have to accept a buyout offer from CGP - it appears that there indeed is something in the bylaws preventing CGP from moving forward to buyout ONCS if they only own 53%. Would be good to get confirmation from DOC/IR, but that appears to be the case. Thanks.
Agree, if someone else is working on another competing offer, it'll take some time. So here's a question...
After the $30M CGP deal closes (if it closes), DOC says that ONCS doesn't have to accept a subsequent offer to buyout the entire company at the $4.50 floor. But, if CGP does offer $4.50 for the remaining shares to complete a buyout a week after the $30M deal closes, even if the ONCS Board doesn't want to accept the offer... doesn't the board have a fiduciary responsibility to take the offer to ONCS shareholders, so shareholders can decide?
In that case, since CGP would own 53% of the shares at that time, the $4.50 buyout would pass... thus enabling CGP to buyout ONCS for about $75M ($2.50 X 12M shares = $30M plus $4.50 X the remaining 10M shares = $45M).
Given the above, it could be that DOC is doing this CGP deal to attract other/better offers. If none surface, the sale price of about $75M seems to be in-play.
Thoughts?
Last post/thoughts on ADXS:
Combo data with a PD-1 is what the market is looking for. Unfortunately for ADXS, they'll only start dosing combo patients later this year. Best case (if everything goes perfectly) they'll have intial Phase 1 early combo data results in about 9-12 months from now.
They most likely will need another reverse split and capital raise before that data is released.
I may take a look at entering ADXS after the next reverse split and capital raise.
Wildcards are a deal with Merck for PSA, or a buyout. Too much risk to stay invested just for those possibilities, IMO. Most likely go-forward scenario for PSA is a collaboration where Merck provides Keytruda and ADXS runs the trial, with no cash up-front. Hope I'm wrong for those holding.
GL all. Over and out for now.
jck
"I’m now starting to have some concerns for the first time..."
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IMO, it'd be a worthwhile exercise to go back and read some of my posts (and posts of others who were raising yellow and red flags) and ask yourself this question: "Why didn't I believe/understand and act on this information?"
Agree Raja. I was using the $37M from their $33M - $37M range as the expected cash needs for the next 12 months, so the $38M I posted about would cover those needs.
Agree that we need to see how much they actually raise after this offering closes before cash position can be confirmed.
That's how it works. Look for the statement in the next financial update that says cash runway greater than 1 year.
"Why do the raise now at these horrible terms if there is good data expected in the future that will organically cause the PPS to rise? They have enough cash to last at least 6-9 months don't they?"
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Because in these small biotechs, the market will always focus on the risk of pending dilution if cash runway gets significantly below 12 months. In order for the market to start looking at upcoming expected news, the risk of pending dilution has to be taken off the table.
There was a sentence in one of their recent filings that stated cash runway was under 1 year. My guess is they're raising now so that in their next quarterly financial update they can state "Cash runway is now 12+ months" or something like that.
Before this raise they had about $22M cash. (They had $34M at April 30 2019... so 3 month burn rate of approximately $12M takes them to approximately $22M cash on the books today.) So, $22M cash today plus $16M expected from this raise = $38M, which is a little more than their new guided annual burn-rate; see their latest Powerpoint slide deck for financials in last 3 set of slides.
Horrible raise, but about what I was expecting. Risk now is that the pps will be below $1 and they'll likely have to do another reverse split to stay listed. Outside of a partnership that can't be expected, I just don't see any other major news that can sustain the pps over $1, given that they've priced this offering at .70
I'm keeping ADXS on my radar, and may take a position around the next reverse split (if it comes) as there will likely be more volatility before and after. IMO, they'll reverse again as soon as needed to stay in compliance, and will time it around the release of updated data.
Oak - Maybe. We'll have to wait to see who buys into the offering. It could be someone that sees ADXS way under-valued compared to NTGN, and after the offering closes, the pps rebounds over-time.
The other side of the coin is if this offering is heavily discounted (most likely scenario IMO) and the pps doesn't recover quickly, they will likely have to do another reverse split to stay listed.
Yes, I see them being able to raise the funds. NTGN has a market cap over $100M, so there is some value in neo-antigen focused companies. ADXS is earlier stage, but still under-valued compared to NTGN, IMO. Does that mean KB is going to be able to close this offering at a decent PPS? Who knows. Risk and past experience says this offering will be heavily discounted as well, but anything's possible... including an upside pricing surprise.
Hard to say why its taking longer than I've seen with other companies in the past. At this point, they may still be trying to determine where they need to price the offering to raise all the capital they want.
I've seen some companies announce and mis-price their offering... days/weeks pass and the offering never closed. They then had to pull the offering and repeat the process down the road.
I expect the pricing PR any day, and expect the offer will fill and close.
What I posted is what happened.
Still haven't seen pricing PR. High risk IMO as this offering could get priced very low to raise the cash they want and need. At that point ADXS would be looking at another reverse split before updated data is published.
I have no position, but if I did I'd reduce my exposure until pricing PR comes.
Yep. Really can't look at current market cap because the market is looking ahead, expecting more shares to be issued soon. Don't be surprised if ADXS does something like TNXP did today; TNXP had 6M shares issued and just did a heavily discounted offering for 9M more shares. ADXS with 8M shares issued could very well do an offering for another 5-8M shares, at whatever discount is needed to get some cash in the door.
High risk even at $1.40ish until see more clarity on pending/expected capital raise.
"Next dilution, $5 - $10 million possible?"
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Sure, it's possible. There was a reason they didn't proportionally reduce the authorized shares as part of the reverse split. Plenty of shares available to be issued. This time, IMO, the next capital raise (whenever it comes) will include warrants with a 5 year term. Shares likely issued at a discount, with free warrants thrown in to entice buyers. Buyers keep the warrants and then dump the stock, as we've seen before.
Agree. IMO, market is pricing in statement below from the CFO made during the last conference call. IMO, no way she makes the below statement if a significant non-dilutive cash deal is around the corner.
Market IMO is pricing in more likely scenario of dilution before non-dilutive cash deal.
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"The key to our business is providing data to the oncology investment community in order to demonstrate the effects of our therapies. This is the most important goal of our company and one which we’re focused on daily. In light of this goal, we need to ensure the business is adequately financed, while also creating shareholder value. It’s this balance we continue to monitor and determine the best path forward to capitalizing the company.
As Ken mentioned, we have engaged the consulting firm to assist with our business development and collaboration efforts. We believe non-dilutive financing is certainly preferred, but also recognize these processes take time."
Sold my remaining small position today. GL to those holding.
Yep, partnership discussions in process on many fronts, but no results. Based on a comment from the CFO today, could still be a while before any deal with non-dilutive funding is announced. Per the CFO, she said words to the effect "While funding the company through non-dilutive financing is preferred, that type of funding can take some time." IMO, that's code-speak for non-dilutive cash is NOT coming anytime soon. With operating cash down to about 6 months, odds favor another offering before any significant non-dilutive funding partnership, IMO.
Also disappointed with HOT data release being pushed from 1st half this year to 2nd half this year. In response to a question during the Q&A, KB replied that "a couple" of HOT patients have been treated. That means 2.
Sonicty - You could get an opportunity to rebuy today if there are some sellers on this news. I'm holding my position until 6/30 as IMO the stock has a decent chance to rebound a bit on news coming in next 6 weeks: HOT Data, updated NEO data, H&N IST news... and hopefully news that the FDA agreed to an earlier data readout for AIM2CERV.
"Up ~15% in PM, but I believe we'll make a round trip today. They will short this pop."
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You're probably right, but I'll just make one point...
When the hold was in place, many people/investors may have seen a risk that ADXS' lead Phase 3 asset would be shutdown, as the FDA could have found deficiencies that would have been too costly & time consuming for ADXS to address. With the hold now lifted, does some of that money start flowing back into the stock? Maybe... especially with 2 data readouts & H&N IST news coming in next 6 weeks.
ADXS halted due to news pending.
Hmmm.
They're linked, but at the end of the day they are separate issues.
Good to see hold lifted.
Hopefully, we get an update soon on separate matter of getting FDA agreement to earlier interim data readout on AIM2CERV.
PROGRAM ANTICIPATED MILESTONES TARGET (From slide #13 of May 2019 deck)
ADXS NEO
Additional data anticipated throughout 2019
ADXS-HOT NSCLC (ADXS-503)
Data from initial clinical cohort (safety, immune response) 1H 2019
ADXS-HPV (axalimogene filolisbac)
Announce planned Investigator Sponsored Trial in Head and Neck Cancer 1H 2019
ADXS-HOT Prostate
IND Submission 2H 2019
ADXS-HOT Bladder
IND Submission 2H 2019
"Would like to see updated slide deck to confirm HOT data readout is still planned for 1st half 2019."
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I got confirmation of the above. HOT data readout still planned for 1st half 2019, as well as H&N IST trial announcement.
I contacted KB and ADXS IR after I didn't see Molly Henderson's presentation from yesterday posted on the website. Response I got (from KB) was that there were no material changes from prior update. IR then responded as well with a copy of the May deck. All milestones look the same; key ones mentioned above still guided for 1st half 2019.
Fingers-crossed that guidance of updated NEO results on 6/20-6/21, combined with expectation of initial HOT data in 1st half 2019, generates some additional buying pressure - while reducing selling pressure - as folks wait for those 2 data releases in next 7 weeks.
Would like to see updated slide deck to confirm HOT data readout is still planned for 1st half 2019.
No idea on when a product will be available to all vets.
Also, the PR didn't provide any details on the criteria needed to trigger the $28M in commercial milestone payments. My guess would be the $28M is allocated to each of the 4 indications, and are triggered when some level of sales is reached for each. So - in my opinion - I don't think it's likely ADXS will see any significant portion of that $28M anytime soon.
The below are the high-level terms from the 2014 PR. Bolding and underlining below is mine.
Under the agreement, Aratana made a one-time upfront payment to Advaxis of $1 million and an additional $1.5 million equity investment in Advaxis common stock and warrants. Aratana agreed to pay up to an additional $6 million in clinical and regulatory milestones for each of the four products, assuming approvals in both cats and dogs in both United States and the European Union. In addition, Aratana agreed to pay up to $28.5 million in commercial milestones. Upon regulatory approval and commercialization of the immunotherapies, Aratana agreed to pay Advaxis a tiered royalty ranging from mid-single digit to 10% on net sales.
https://ir.advaxis.com/press-release/business-development/aratana-and-advaxis-enter-exclusive-global-licensing-agreement
Added a bit. GL.
Five day chart looks decent. Uptrend starting to take shape, but too early to draw any definitive conclusions, IMO. Some recent consolidation in $3.35 - $3.40 range looks promising. Prior resistance at $3.40 now starting to look like support.
Want to see $3.40 hold for another day before adding more.
Oak did post the text that was on the slide... it just displayed differently on IHub without all the line spacing & formatting that's in the deck.
Ig - No. You need to go to slide #5 and look at the deck from the link Oak posted. The text he posted just came across looking like the "partner" comment pertained to cervical as well. Look at slide #5 and you'll see the "partner" comment only applies to H&N.
Looks like ASCO abstracts will be released on 5/15, not 4/17 per my prior post.
https://meetings.asco.org/am/dates-know?cmpid=nm_am_rh_sm_-_psrh_03-22-19_reg
Oak - Because this is described as an Investigator Sponsored Trial (IST), the most likely "partners" are the IST and perhaps the company that's providing the PD-1. I assume this H&N trial will be using a PD-1 in combination, so most likely Merck is the other "partner". I don't expect this to include any upfront cash or milestone payments, but we'll see.
Certainly are some potential news items out there over the next 10 weeks. I'm looking for the 5 below before 6/30:
4/17 - ASCO Abstracts released tomorrow, I believe. Will ADXS be presenting?
Any Day - FDA AXAL/cervical hold lifted
Any Day - Earlier AXAL/cervical Interim Analysis announced
6/3 - Initial HOT data at ASCO is my bet.
6/30 (Guided 1st half 2019) - Investigator sponsored trial for H&N announced
I hear you... it may eventually get there. My bet is that ADXS is following the same playbook as other small biotechs that execute a reverse & then dilute: The reverse/dilution is planned 6 months to a year in advance, so the company lines up news both pre and post reverse/dilution. We saw the SEC filing that the offering closed. I'm going to stick around for at least 1 post reverse/dilution PR, which should be coming soon (days to 1-2 weeks).
Gl all.
Just an observation that this pullback below the $4 offering price is on relatively low volume. Much different situation than the prior offering with warrants, where the pullback below the offering price was immediate, severe and on heavy volume, as the warrant holders dumped their shares.
While this can still bleed lower, I'm somewhat optimistic that whoever bought the 2.5M shares in the offering are holding for news... and something higher than $4.
GL all.
Restarted a position at $4.08. IMO, ADXS has a decent chance at getting back to $5ish+ (25%+ move) by the end of June. Three more milestones guided to be coming by 6/30/2019, per slide #29 on latest corporate presentation. (Initial HOT data, HOT Prostate IND, IST trial for H&N).
I'm not looking to hold long-term, but I like the risk/reward at $4ish with some near-term news pending. I plan to add more if it dips below $4.00.
Gl all.
Problem is that ADXS is still burning through $45-$50M per year... $10M+ per quarter.
Until they're able to partner 1 or more programs and reduce their burn-rate further (while adding non-dilutive cash to balance sheet), the market is going to have a hard time valuing the company any higher than cash on hand... because that cash is flying out the door. (The later-stage biotechs I'm invested in - pivotal data coming in 12 months or less - have burn-rates much lower in the $30-$35M per year range.)
Market is not showing any confidence that any such deal is coming anytime soon.
Latest guidance in the recent prospectus is that current cash (after this $10M raise) will only last another 9 months.
IMO, some type of deal is coming summer/fall, so perhaps some relief then.
GL all.