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thats a great price to announce something worthwhile and positive to see high volume bring fep.l to new highs.....
without it, we could creep back down to 50 on the same low volume.
volume in perspective for fecof
the month of january 2012 closed to just under 3 million<2.7> in volume, which is somewhere in line with previous months although much better than last month.
in perspective.......january 2011 we traded 30 million in volume....thats 1000% greater than last month.
it was that type of volume that brought the stock to 7 cents.
history doesnt always repeat itself in a perfect or exact path but i think it will have to look similar to that type of volume to get roughly the same results.
wasnt attacking you, on the contrary i was trying to see if i'm overlooking something by a different train of thought coming from somewhere else on the board.
your comparison percentage wise in volume shows a big difference of around 30 plus percentage points.......but when its just an extra 2 grand or 3 grand above average i personally would dismiss it.
looking at fep rising to new highs on low volume would make me think a pump and dump might be in effect by the market maker...........but this AIM stock is so thinly traded to begin with that small amounts of buying bring the price back up....maybe justifiably....like a bookmaker adjusting the pointspread influenced by just a few gamblers on a game nobody is watching......I dont think i can ever rely much on the current technical analysis in fep unless we see record volume again associated with big upswings in price.
the current events are putting aside some of the fear associated with the china threat.............A china conclusion of agreement in sc72 claims belonging to the philipines would be the best news followed with a very favorable 3d summary.....might bring the stock up to around 10 to 12 cents............a partner anouncement after drilling the first well could bring us well above 20 cents
jmo glta
excuse me jd, but where do you see the higher volume? in what comparison chart?
My biggest problem with these companies <fecof, fep.l>relating to technical analysis is that there is just a total insignificant amount of volume. If someone wanted to take a decent position of 25 grand worth of stock, it could look as record volume or the beginning of a breakout etc....
dont get me wrong, i like the forward looking statements and i'm hopeful for fecof especially getting U.S. backing and possibly a naval base........i just dont see any volume supporting any strength yet.
good luck to all.
dont waste your time digging thru history,,,,,,,if you dont remember it doesnt really matter,,,,,,do something better with your time
what matters is that they follow thru on their latest pr release and that the news is very forward looking filled with potential and likelyhood of a partner.
I would love to see them anounce a 5 or 6 tcf as that would more likely secure the investment needed by a partner. I think there will be hesitation at "just" 3.5 tcf, considering the large investment/risk.
So when people on this board say they expect an american partner are we talking CHEVRON who has a piece of the malampaya project?
I agree with you Downside that a partner is waaaaay down the line but i could see most deals going down behind closed doors as something like this " if you can get the security of this investment by the us govt. naval fleet then we can commit to the deal/investment in the reed bank......." or something to that effect. I think the corporate funded presidents, including Obama and the congress, have favors to pay back. It doesnt hurt the us to have a base in that part of the world either to keep China from throwing its weight around.
well said downside,
although theres some much needed good news as progress ,,,slow as it may ,,,,,exists......
I do remember you going on a rant 3 months ago on how it would be insane....stupid and some other words to that effect about someone <most likely myself> expecting a summary release of the 3d analysis............according to that last company news release its just as i called it and just as the shareholders deserve,,,,,,,,Apology accepted.
thats a nice article but it sounds more like a rumor than actual news "in talks"......i would love for this to come into fruition though,,,,,,,they could build a base right on the reed bank for all I care......would be awesome actually........maybe throw cement on the sea floor..expand the island and give it a strong sea floor to drill on
the volume of 1,000,000 shares represents about 25 grand worth of buying/selling trading in total......i own more than that myself...some buy their positions all in one day, some slowly..its not just one buyer either........
I will concede that in comparison to its daily volume it has jumped 7 fold......but its only impressive when you see a bug chunk of cash... not something a middle class person can just take a decent position in.... could be joe and his brother bob both put in ten grand each......no big deal really.
i'd like to see 5% of the shares traded..........so at give or take a 10 million dollar market cap its only fair to expect 500 thousand dollars traded at this price.......and a million dollars to show some serious buying....a 10% buyback would represent 1,000,000 dollars.....25 or 30 grand is a far cry from 500,000...............if it continues to multiply its volume consecutively for 3 to 4 days then maybe its finally a sign of institutional buying.
glta
this is by far the best story yet regarding fecof...........because without the balls to protect your investment then you actually only have an illusion of an investment..........this story has me feeling way more positive about fep.l for a change..........although there are many more obstacles ahead, clearing this hurdle is huge.Stylgian
MANILA (Reuters) - The United States and the Philippines are set to hold military drills that may anger Beijing near disputed waters in the South China Sea, testing their readiness to protect offshore oil and natural gas platforms, a Marine general said on Thursday.
Philippines Lieutenant-General Juancho Sabban, military commander on western island of Palawan, said it is the first time an annual exercise will be focused on protecting offshore energy platforms, adding that the drills should not anger China which also has territorial claims in the region.
"Why should they be angry, this is an annual activity," he said, referring to China, one of six states claiming sovereignty over the South China Sea.
The drills are to be held near the country's Malampaya gas project, owned by Chevron Malampaya LLC, a unit of the U.S. energy firm, and Shell Philippines Exploration B.V, a unit of Royal Dutch Shell.
"The purpose there ... is to protect or retake any platform that are under attack by terrorists," Sabban said, adding amphibious exercises on Palawan's western coastline, facing the disputed Spratlys, are also planned.
Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam, Taiwan and the Philippines also have conflicting claims over the disputed area believed to have rich deposits of oil and gas.
Since 2002, U.S. army special forces have held separate training for Filipino troops fighting a group of al Qaeda-linked Islamist militants in the southern Philippines and take part in humanitarian missions in areas where militants are active.
The U.S. military has also held regular military exercises with Filipino counterparts under a 1951 security treaty with its former colony.
(Reporting By Manuel Mogato; Editing by Ed Lane)
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maybe, maybe not
i did find this on google, its another board and there was a "rumor" about washington , manilla plan on a military drill in the south china sea..........heres the link
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:FEP.L&display=discussion
i have very little to none faith in the communist chinese...
statements like this are more likely translated or clarified in tis way
"China's stance on the South China Sea issue is constant and clear," he said, adding that the Chinese side holds that China and the Philippines should address the South China Sea dispute through consultation and negotiation on the basis of fully respecting history and international law.
China's stance is constant and clear = nothing changes, we uphold our previous declarations.
Philippines should address the South China Sea dispute through consultation and negotiation on the basis of fully respecting history and international law.
= History according to commies trumps international law and gets grandfathered in.......... if you want to negotiate your surrender of international rights and be consulted on how to appropriately do so, we will help you with your process.
My opinion is that the phil govt wth backing by the US should move forward and not allow a country like china without jurisdiction in that economic zone to postpone their natural process. Everyday they postpone the chinese win a little
of course......... but the year is just starting........they give themselves 12 full months with general statements like that.......this article was from a reporter though.
also to drill an exploratory well is very different from becoming a malampaya type project......i'd like for them to anounce who and when the exploratory well will take place but even if they ever do get to that, they might not anounce that until after its done........such is the news treatment if any that we get from fecof and fep.
i cant imagine their annual report being better than last year since their deal with Basic cut half of their ownership in multiple contracts including profitable ones. Still at .023 it seems priced right considering its risk/reward............they need to push the envelope.....china can wait them out til this company runs red ink if allowed to continue with aimless chatter.
the article about shell could go both ways..........
when it says that they are eyeing bigger areas.......... there is a slight possibility fep might be a consideration.............but more likely and telling is the statements that they want to consolidate and bid in the area themselves,,,,,, so if they are looking to go at it themselves without partners in that area, it means one less big bidder for fep.
At least they are not withdrawing from the area completely..........that is a big blow against china in their south china sea claim..........Big corporations still control western govts and shell is as big as they get.
were saying the same thing......... you probably dont get my "connotation" over the text, its happened before, youre obviously not from ny like I am...........but yeah.....i agree that fep will and should proceed.........my point is simply that even at this stage.........and if they dont get a partner......there is still value in an "as is" comparable from that article....and its relatively much more than its current market price.....
anyway.......happy new year to all investors.........the jump in volume is still just 6 grand trading hands........160 grand would be better
what i take away from this article is that the field with less than 2.5 tcf was bought by them for less than 200 mil..175 mil i think it said........dont know the exact percentage of that field they bought...around 50% i guess.... they expect "recoverable" to be much less........... and it sounds like that govt is more unstable than the philipines.....although it might not have been when they made this purchase...
so maybe fep in an "as is" condition, is worth around somewhere between 150 million to 500 million.......who knows for sure unless you put it up for auction. Continuing forward it could either enhance its worth greatly or diminish its worth with failures.........going forward will allow these guys to do many sweet deals for themselves off the books and paper/corporate ownership shuffling , so go forward they will.
what nido is doing nearby,,,,,,,,the last line is the most significant.
http://www.discussthemarket.com/fep-chat
Nido Petroleum provides seismic survey on SC 54A and SC 54B 2D
Thursday, December 15, 2011
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¦Nido Petroleum is announced the successful completion of the combined SC 54A Lawaan/Libas and SC 54B Pawikan 2D seismic surveys on 10 December 2011.
Nido Petroleum Philippines Pty Limited, as Operator of Service Contract 54A and Service Contract 54B, is pleased to announce the successful completion of the combined SC 54A Lawaan/Libas and SC 54B Pawikan 2D seismic surveys on 10 December 2011. Nido's partners in SC 54A are Yilgarn Petroleum Philippines Pty Ltd , Trafigura Ventures III B.V. and TG World Corporation, and in SC 54B, Yilgarn Petroleum Philippines Pty Ltd and Shell Philippines Exploration B.V.
The two surveys were acquired over the period 29 November to 10 December 2011 using the MV 'Nordic Energy' operated by seismic contractor Nordic Maritime Pte Ltd.
Key highlights:
¦ SC 54A: 73 full-fold line kilometres of new 2D seismic was acquired over the greater Lawaan and Libas Prospects. The objective of the survey was to determine if the two prospects are connected structurally which would further upgrade the potential of the larger Lawaan Prospect, which is currently the leading drilling candidate in SC 54A. Prospective resource oil-in-place estimates for Lawaan and Libas are currently 34.7 million barrels* and 12.0 million barrels respectively.
¦ SC 54B: 430 full-fold line kilometres of new 2D seismic data was acquired over the Pawikan Lead. The objective of the new seismic is to mature the Pawikan Lead to Prospect status by addressing remaining risks relating to reservoir and charge into the structure.
The Pawikan Lead lies 30 km to the south of the non-commercial Gindara-1 gas and oil discovery well which was drilled by the SC 54B Joint Venture earlier this year and 10 kilometres south-west of the Service Contract 14 Nido A/B oilfields. Prospective Resource oil-in-place estimate for Pawikan is approximately 2 billion barrels*.
interesting find
the key words i see is that theres 3 billion cubic feet of recoverable gas in which fep has a small share of......
and considering sc72 has 3 trillion cubic feet in comparison,,,,,,,,,,,,
this play holds little significance in comparison percentage wise.
3 bil is just one tenth of one percent of 3 tril.....
dont get me wrong...... maybe they can get some loose change for it to help pay some bills around here..........but the game changer is and has always been sc72
THE very crude analysis with conservative numbers would be:
that for now, just the 1 megawtt.............. powering 1000 homes <small homes>, which is what i assume the philipines has over there.......
lets say on average they pay 50 dollars a month for this electricity..............thats 50 grand a month, 500 grand a year or so.......minus the agreement/cost sharing.......lets say HALF.......a quarter of a mil..........and lets say it cost a half mil to build.........so it wont pay itself off for a year.....and then Maybe fep gets to keep a quarter of a mil a year? and if theres taxes......somewhere between 100 grand and 200 grand?.....I guess its enough to pay some cronies salary on the board of directors so the cash doesnt get depleted as fast as it is.....so its better than nothing but not a game changer at all.........if they can build 10 of those....now we are slowly getting somewhere.
Just my honest opinion.
yes......pretty much.
trying to figure out the worth of sc40
a 1 megawatt facility running 1000 homes doesnt sound all that impressive to me, unless this is the beginning of running at least 100, 000 thousand homes.......
I just posted that article and let people analyze it on their own for what its worth........i'm sure i wasnt the only one wondering what a 1 megawatt facility is worth and what $$ if any will dwindle down to fep....and fecof equity.
What is a Megawatt?
Jun 24, 2003 02:00 AM
Mega-what? The term is tossed around a lot. Megawatts are basic to understanding electricity planning concepts, but what are they?
News stories covering electric generation topics often try to illustrate the worth of a megawatt in terms of how many homes a particular amount of generation could serve. A June 11, 2003 article describing the potential sale of AEP's Texas generation facilities states that AEP is offering to sell "29 generating units with a total net generation capacity of 4,497 MW, or roughly enough electricity to power 4.5 mm average homes." A May 21, 2003 article describes an agreement with Sempra that "involves 1,900 MW, enough to supply 1.9 mm homes."
Such articles give the impression that one MW is enough electricity to supply 1,000 homes. Yet, occasionally, an article will illustrate a different conversion such as an April 17, 2003 article which states "Tucson Electric Power expanded its solar capacity to 2.4 MW, enough to power 420 homes."
So what really is a MW and how many homes can one MW of generation really serve?
The answer starts with understanding the basic definition of energy terms. Watts (W) are the yardstick for measuring power. A one hundred Watt light bulb, for example, is rated to consume one hundred Watts of power when turned on. If such a light bulb were on for four hours it would consume a total of 400 Watt-hours (Wh) of energy. Watts, therefore, measure instantaneous power while Watt-hours measure the total amount of energy consumed over a period of time.
A MW is 1 mm Watts and a kW is one thousand Watts. Both terms are commonly used in the power business when describing generation or load consumption. For instance, a 100 MW rated wind farm is capable of producing 100 MW during peak winds, but will produce much less than its rated amount when winds are light. As a result of these varying wind speeds, over the course of a year a wind farm may only average 30 MW of power production.
Similarly, a 1,000 MW coal plant may average 750 MW of production over the course of a year because the plant will shut down for maintenance from time-to-time and the plant operates at less than its rated capability when other power plants can produce power less expensively.
The ratio of a power plant's average production to its rated capability is known as capacity factor. In the previous example, the wind farm would have a 30 % capacity factor (30 MW average production divided by 100 MW rated capability) and the coal plant would have a 75 % capacity factor (750 MW average divided by 1,000 MW rated capability).
Load factor generally, on the other hand, is calculated by dividing the average load by the peak load over a certain period of time. If the residential load at a utility averaged 5,000 MW over the course of a year and the peak load was 10,000 MW, then the residential customers would be said to have a load factor of 50 % (5,000 MW average divided by 10,000 MW peak).
Knowing the peak and average demand of a power system is critical to proper planning. The power system must be designed to serve the peak load, in this example 10,000 MW. But the actual load will vary. The load might be 10,000 MW at noon, but only 4,000 MW at midnight, when fewer appliances are operating. The capacity or load factor gives utility planners a sense of this variation.
A 40 % load factor would indicate large variations occur in load, while a 90 % load factor would indicate little variation. Residential homes tend to have low load factors because people are home and using appliances only during certain hours of the day, while certain industrial customer will have very high load factors because they operate 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.
Residential electricity consumption
The amount of electricity consumed by a typical residential household varies dramatically by region of the country. According to 2001 Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, New England residential customers consume the least amount of electricity, averaging 653 kWh of load in a month, while the East South Central region, which includes states such as Georgia and Alabama and Tennessee, consumes nearly double that amount at 1,193 kWh per household.
The large disparity in electric consumption is driven by many factors including the heavier use of air conditioning in the South. So it stands to reason that a one MW generator in the Northeast would be capable of serving about twice as many households as a generator located in the South because households in the Northeast consume half the amount of electricity as those in the South.
Going through the math, a 1,000 MW rated coal generator with a 75 % capacity factor generates about 6.6 bn kWh in a year, equivalent to the amount of power consumed by about 900,000 homes in the Northeast but only 460,000 homes in the South. In other words, each MW of rated capacity for a coal plant in the Northeast generates the equivalent amount of electricity consumed by 900 homes in the Northeast but only about 460 homes in the South.
By comparison, a 30 % capacity factor, 100 MW wind farm would generate the equivalent amount of power consumed by about 35,000 homes in the Northeast and 18,000 homes in the South. In other words, each MW of rated capacity for a wind farm in the Northeast generates the equivalent amount of electricity consumed by 350 homes in the Northeast and 180 homes in the South.
So what is a Megawatt worth?
The examples demonstrate that there are two very important aspects to knowing what a MW of generation capacity is worth in terms of how many equivalent homes it represents.
The first factor is how much electricity the power plant itself produces, which can be calculated by knowing the plant's rating and capacity factor.
Second, the location of the plant is very important as the amount of electricity consumed in a typical household can vary dramatically across the country.
The numbers used in the examples were typical representations of coal and wind power plants. A low-cost coal plant typically operates at capacity factors of 60 % or higher. High quality wind sites will generate at about 30 to 40 % of their rated capability on average because of wind speed variations. Solar generators average even less production, typically under 25 % capacity factor, because the generators do not produce electricity during the night time or during cloudy days.
The commonly used "one MW of generation equates to 1,000 homes" is a myth that likely originated years ago when households were smaller and air conditioning wasn't as common.
For conventional generators, such as a coal plant, a MW of capacity will produce electricity that equates to about the same amount of electricity consumed by 400 to 900 homes in a year. For renewable energy such as wind or solar, the equivalent is even less because they typically produce less energy than conventional generators since their "fuel source" is intermittent.
Of course, no one generator is normally considered sufficient by itself to supply an individual customer. All generators must be taken out of service for maintenance and some types of generators, such as nuclear, wind, and solar, are not normally able to "follow" changes in load. For these reasons power systems require the use of backup generation sources and occasionally electric energy storage, such as batteries, to ensure the amount of power generated always matches the load demand, every second.
Source: Energy Industry Issues Newsletter
found an older <3 weeks> article that i think was overlooked, dont remember seeing this:
Forum Energy to start natural gas production off Cebu
inShare.
Published : Wednesday, November 16, 2011 00:00 Article Views : 984 Written by : Euan Paulo C. Añonuevo
UNITED Kingdom-based Forum Energy Plc. is set to start production of natural gas at the Libertad field in Cebu.
Department of Energy Undersecretary Jay Layug said Forum Energy will start churning out gas from the said field this month, enough for a one-megawatt power generating capacity.
Forum Exploration Inc., a wholly owned unit of Forum Energy, controls two-thirds of petroleum Service Contract 40, which contains the field. Coal miner Forum Pacific Inc. owns the remaining stake in the contract.
Jose Raymond Apostol, Forum Energy Philippines president, earlier said the company signed a supply agreement with Desco Inc., a local petroleum and geothermal company, which plans to use natural gas from Libertad for power generation.
Desco will sell power to the Cebu Electric Cooperative Inc.
found an older <3 weeks> article that i think was overlooked, dont remember seeing this:
Forum Energy to start natural gas production off Cebu
inShare.
Published : Wednesday, November 16, 2011 00:00 Article Views : 984 Written by : Euan Paulo C. Añonuevo
UNITED Kingdom-based Forum Energy Plc. is set to start production of natural gas at the Libertad field in Cebu.
Department of Energy Undersecretary Jay Layug said Forum Energy will start churning out gas from the said field this month, enough for a one-megawatt power generating capacity.
Forum Exploration Inc., a wholly owned unit of Forum Energy, controls two-thirds of petroleum Service Contract 40, which contains the field. Coal miner Forum Pacific Inc. owns the remaining stake in the contract.
Jose Raymond Apostol, Forum Energy Philippines president, earlier said the company signed a supply agreement with Desco Inc., a local petroleum and geothermal company, which plans to use natural gas from Libertad for power generation.
Desco will sell power to the Cebu Electric Cooperative Inc.
101 bil in philipine peso is 2.3 bil us dollars
thats an accumulation of profits since 2005<around there>, drilled in 2002 i think,
and thats a 3tcf find..even heard it referred to as 2.7tcf........ oil is worth more now than the average the last 5 or 6 years....amd i think gas in that region too.
so if that represents 60% of the profits.......
they must have pumped out around 4 bil in profits
if we can prove 5 or 6tcf...we'll be twice as big a find.......then only 70% of the field........minus 60% to the govt.....minus ? to the lead driller..and so forth ...and then 25% of whatever fep is worth.....
I am hoping for a huge find for proven not only for bigger profits but moreso that it guarantees the 5 bil investment going forward.
in searching for the 2010 numbers for malampaya i came up with this instead....which is very telling ,,,,,,,,,,, including the big take from the govt as well.....i forgot what taxes ontop of the govt's take will be included,,:
Gov't share in Malampaya worth P101.7-B as of 2010
abs-cbnNEWS.com
Posted at 01/20/2011 10:53 PM | Updated as of 01/21/2011 10:33 PM
MANILA, Philippines - The national government's share from the Malampaya deep water-to-gas project field has reached P101.66 billion.
This represents accumulated earnings of the national government as of end-2010.
The national government has a 60% share in the earnings of the Malampaya project's operations in Palawan as specified in its service contract with the private consortium that operates it.
National Treasurer Roberto B. Tan said on Jan 20 that the government has disbursed only P16.86 billion.
The P84.4 billion balance has been classified as a "special account" under the government's "general fund."
"The amount is not missing and is classified as special account in general fund 151 earmarked for a purpose as prescribed by law," Tan said.
The Arroyo administration had tried to sell its stake in the Malampaya project to plug a widening budget deficit that could have hit another a record high of P320 billion in 2010.
However, the new Aquino government decided in July 2010 to put the sale on hold.
Energy Secretary Jose Rene D. Almendras directed the state-owned Philippine National Oil Company to first resolve the issues hounding its subsidiary, PNOC-Exploration Corporation prior to making a decision on whether or not to sell the stake.
PNOC-EC owns the 10% stake in the Malampaya project, which fuels the country's 3 natural gas power plants.
The remaining 90% stake is held by Shell Philippines Exploration B.V and Chevron Texaco.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
wahoosier:
if we come up with the potential 6 tcf we still need to know the proven...........and then the recoverable rate after that,,,,,
all these numbers have huge variables, then also what kind of contract /agreement is given in hopes that fecof and fep shareholders wont be underminded by philex who is on both boards..... thats why its fair to say that fecof could be worth anywhere from ZERO if we go bust........to possibly a 500 mil to a billion dollar market cap in 5 years......especially if the 440 million barrels of oil aslo prove up.,,,,,,,,,,just my opinion based on extreme variables including all possibilities...
if fep is possible of getting to a 4 billion market cap in a malampaya type effort/success..........then fecofs undiluted stock of 25% will be 1 billion.
Can someone clarify for me if malampaya said they made 1 bil in revenues last year or was it 1 bil in profit?
I just finished reading your post 5122.......excellent and informative, thanks for sharing,,,,,,,,,,now regarding the other posting.......lol....
I dont want to argue on this subject or even debate it really. I already know we agree on about 95% regarding fecof. It could be that my perception of the wording of what was said is different than the perception of what you read. Or maybe i used the wrong description or wording,,,,but anyway....
we are in agreement about vague or general dates given..........they never used the term "release date".....that is simply the term that i decided to use to explain when we wil be given a summary of what they discovered in OUR company.........they gave general time frames......"end of this quarter".etc......one even said years later and people on this board wondered if its a misquote...
i could search online later to show you the quote that i understood in that way, but it wont reaaly matter if its perception that divides our opinion,,,,
"Made up? making up?" ,,,,No you would be very wrong to judge me or label me as intentionally making something up. At worst I could be wrong or there is a misreading or misunderstanding but I dont think I did. Consider yourself possibly being the one who is wrong as well.
If there is intentional misleading of information it would be from Fecof in regards the way they handled the gold mine, and lack of informing us, even if its FEP that i'm waiting on ,we are still talking about the same cronies running the show.They are all on multiple boards with these companies.
you said: "Not only is that unrealistic... it's wildly unrealistic... and it would be stupid of them to "give the data to the shareholders". No company in their right mind would do that. Why you'd say that you expect it ? Hmmm. "
Very dramatic wording there.....my response: I am a shareholder of nidof as well...very small but nonetheless, they told their shareholders what they were drilling to recover before doing so, and when they ran into "water" they closed it up and explained in summary details the problems they ran into and the reason for closing it up. To inform your shareholders is not "wildly unrealistic"
What do we know?? I know that a survey of about half of the sc72 area was done many years ago< as we have seen posted continuously here>, and I also know that a summary of that information was "released" and that is where we get the 3.4tc number from....so dont be quick to judge me as "Idiotic" for assuming that a summary would be expected to be released to the shareholders as well.....i never said we'd get the entire printout or 1000 page report<although if you request to see it through a lawyer you should be able to do that too>.
"And, they've already addressed some of that, too, with action"
I would disagree...theyve addressed it with words only,,,,,,a comittment of cash and words of drilling a hole is still words before the act actually happens......<but i understand what you mean to say, wink>....they can back off from their words at anytime although I'm leaning towards the hope that they wont, and carry thru on with this........because of the govts. involvement and action <both phil and US> ....not because of their words.
I had finished the post you are referring to by Conceeding that maybe in this case its a good strategy to keep that info tightlipped a little bit longer <info regarding "leads" from other sites> until after we know if theyve been awarded new contracts in their bidding.,,,,,
if it makes you feel better i will rephrase what i meant....or should have said instead
" the analysis time frame" or a "release date of that finished analysis to the company" of sc72 was expected to be completed by the 4th quarter......and I for one am crazy enough to believe that shareholders "rightfully by law" deserve to know what the end results are, and a "news release/summary following soon after" from the analysis, WHEN the information is not jeopardizing future profits from alerting competition.
this is all just my opinion..... and the loose facts that we have so far.
I will keep in mind to watch my wording or phrasing around you next time......
By the way I apreciate the links of info you sent me in private messaging but i dont have a premium account to reply back in like manner...i only have around 800,ooo shares of this
thanks and good luck
i understand what youre saying
its just that the survey was completed in March......they were happy they were done ahead of schedule......then they said/set contrary release dates of the information, and gave the impression that the info would be released to shareholders too< i believe Nidof was forthcoming with theirs>.........one of those release dates was stated 4th quarter of the year....and another one 2 years later.
after reading that info again I wonder if they also had the incentive to keep it quiet, as to be able to bid on further contracts that they may have found strong leads coming from...........and from what i read fep did bid on new contracts and we will find out the winners first quarter 2012......a few months before the end of the world......ooooh the irony of it all. .......ive said enough on this subject........i'll wait on new news,,,,,,,,,,but in the boards opinions i was able to analyze a different train of thought........as there are reasons to be pessimistic with fep there are also strong possibilities that this positioning will pay off.
i would think that they would publish it as to get investors to make us an offer / partner deal to get the full investment needed........but you make a good point......they might only release that information privately to companies who are interested........being a public company though i find it strange how much info is out of the hands of its shareholders.
Also its possible that since theyve decided to drill the first hole themselves<i hope they follow thru on that soon and not make us wait 2 years >,
that they might release that information altogether with that of the drilling....as to give themselves more control and ownership over their destiny.
But why hold off on any info regarding cebu.........I cant imagine another public company that would have one of its projects OPERATIONAL and not announce it in a news release.....I mean why hold that off.....no secrecy needed and that info of a new revenue stream can only help the stock
besides the 3d results which are long overdue........
i was waiting on realization of this....
"SC 40 is likewise home to the Libertad gas field, which is expected to start commercial production within the fourth quarter this year, according to Forum Energy. Once the field starts producing gas, Forum Energy’s partner Desco Inc. will be able to begin generating power for Cebu.
Fep has many things that could be positively announced and yet they never honor their deadlines.
They should at the very least update their shareholders when their deadlines need to be pushed back for whatever reason. Shame on this managment for the way they misled investors in the past and for keeping us in the dark on expected crucial announcements.
I find this very disheartening since my experience with their delayed announcements reminds me of the gold BUST and how they put off the bad news til later................I'm not saying that this will be the case this time too but they most certainly give that impression and fill investors with doubt.
this is always the biggest reason to avoid a micro-cap that is majority owned and controlled with more than 50% of the voting rights.......they simply dont have to tell you anything as compared to a big board stock with regulations, and they dont care.
I just hope my big exception to the rule pays off, but Hope isnt the best strategy out there.
hello: does anyone have any updates or insights on this? its about that time........seems promising.Cebu and libertad...etc.
http://business.inquirer.net/11471/forum-energy-plc-to-drill-oil-wells-in-visayan-basin-by-2012
i found this article as well and its fairly recent.....
its more about nido than fecof but i find it highly relevant as they got shell on board to farm out sc54b.....and how they reduced their 60% ownership to 33 as they gave shell 23% to help out/come in...........it could serve as a rough precedent and give an idea of how it will look if the successful Malampaya folks come in to join us. what i take away from this article is that it wasnt just nido who let their percentage get cut but also the other guys, anyway here it is:
PERTH, Australia,, Oct. 27 /PRNewswire/ -- Nido Petroleum Limited ("Nido", ASX: NDO) is pleased to announce that it has entered into an agreement with Shell Philippines Exploration B.V. ("Shell"), a subsidiary of the Royal Dutch Shell Group, to farm-out 27% out of its current 60% participating interest in the highly prospective Service Contract 54 Block B ("SC 54B") in the NW Palawan Basin, Philippines.
Highlights of the transaction include:
- Shell farms into SC 54B acquiring a 45% participating interest (Nido contributing 27% and SC 54B partner Kairiki Energy Limited ("KIK") contributing 18%);
- Gindara drilling window narrowed to March - May 2011;
- Drill-ship 'Frontier Phoenix' identified for potential use on Gindara-1; and
- Nido will remain Operator for the drilling of the Gindara-1 exploration well.
Transaction Summary
Under the terms of the Farm-in Agreement, Shell will acquire a 45% participating interest in SC 54B with Nido contributing 27% and SC 54B partner Kairiki Energy Limited contributing 18% of their respective participating interests. To earn its participating interest Shell will undertake the following:
- Contribute 75% of the Gindara-1 exploration well cost up to a maximum well cost of US$24 million;
- pay US$2.5 million towards past seismic costs; and
- pay its pro-rata share of the 2010 and 2011 Work Programme and Budget from the date of signing.
Under the terms of the deal, Nido will remain operator of SC 54B for the drilling of the Gindara-1 exploration well.
On completion of Shell's farm-in, participating interests in SC 54B will be as follows:
Shell Philippines Exploration B.V. (Shell) - 45%
Nido Petroleum Philippines Pty Ltd (Nido, ASX: NDO) - Operator - 33%
Yilgarn Petroleum Philippines Pty Ltd, (Kairiki, ASX: KIK) - 22%
The transaction is subject to certain conditions, including joint venture approvals and the approval by the Philippine Department of Energy (DOE) of certain amendments to the Service Contract and the assignment of the relevant participating interest to Shell.
Commenting on the deal, Nido's President and CEO, Jocot de Dios, said, "It is with great pleasure that we welcome Shell as a partner into the SC 54B consortium. Shell is amongst the largest and most experienced oil and gas companies in the world. It has had over 96 years of operations in the
Philippines and a deep understanding of its oil and gas sector."
"This arrangement allows Nido to quickly drill Gindara, our leading prospect, and remain focused on maturing exploration drilling plans in SC 58 and SC 63. Nido is working to deliver the five well exploration programme announced earlier in the year." Jocot, went on to add.
Gindara lies approximately 50km immediately south of the Shell operated Malampaya gas field in SC38, the largest discovery made in the Philippines to date and currently on production.
Nido's Head of Exploration, Jon Pattillo, commented, "I am pleased to have Shell join Nido in SC 54B and in the drilling of the Gindara prospect next year. An important element of Nido's exploration strategy has been to join hands with a company of Shell's global stature who bring world-class
development experience and access to cutting edge technology. Nido looks forward to working closely with Shell on this exciting project".
Nido has now commenced detailed drilling planning, including the ordering of long-lead items and materials, to allow the Gindara prospect to be drilled during the March to May 2011 drilling window.
Yours sincerely,
Jocot de Dios
President and CEO
For more information or a copy of SC 54B Location Map and Gindara Prospect, please contact:
Jon Pattillo
Head of Exploration
T: +61 8 9474 0000
F: +61 8 9474 0099
www.nido.com.au
SOURCE Nido Petroleum
this article is large and shows a nov. 1, 2011 map of all the new investments to take place awarded early next year and fep is listed as a bidder.......winners anounced next year:
http://www.offshore-mag.com/index/article-display/4882743985/articles/offshore/volume-71/issue-11/frontier-exploration-update/the-philippines-targets-7-5-billion-exploration-investment.html
80 mil to 100 mil is what they said theyd spend on the first drilling.......and what they got "comitted" from philex.
But they stated numerous times as has been reposted in full context on this board that this total project would cost 5 billion..............as comparison its good to know that Malampaya cost a total 3 billion to invest..............i'll go know and see if i can find it in full context from a quote from fep......
hmmmm.........i just found this link: i'll just post this link and you can read the entire article..........this article says Malampaya cost about 5 bil according to Pag, and Pangilian is quoted saying even if we need people to come in to invest 5 to 10 billion it is....." Anyways, heres the article:
http://business.inquirer.net/18821/exploration-plan-boosts-philex-petroleum-shares
VERY WELL SAID..
I also agree in most instances it works for you to be a small cap with a decent percentage in a huge find than otherwise.....and at other times it can also work against you as you have to give a large percentage of your company's ownership to get the 5 billion dollar investment in place to pump out those profits everyone keeps tallying up.
the main reason i posted the anadarko find is for one that it is a significant discovery similar to the same situation/business fecof is in........and more importantly i paid attention to their phrasing/wording....recoverable.....vs.... gas in place.....did anyone see how much the two vary between eachother.....almost as much as 50%..........people are doing math on fecof with gas in place which is assumed but probably correct.......and furthermore Assumed that it is recoverable at all.
Fep made the anouncement many months ago that they were willing to do just that and get a smaller piece of the pie. That having it get done was better than a big percentage of zero.......the question remains just how small are they willing to become to get this done?? will they be left with just 10% of sc70 to get this done?JUST A GUESTIMATE......Nobody knows for sure......but whatever it is it comes with an expense of 5 billion off the bat...........handing over somewhere around 50% of the revenues to the philipine govt as well ..........and then paying taxes too...
and if so then fecof will only have 2.5% of sc72........so if sc72 gets considered being worth lets say 20 bil.......then fep will be 2 bil.......and fecof will be 500 mil.....which is a huge jump from where it is now.............but this is very best case scenario in my book......as long as fep gets a bil market cap we'll be very happy......like fecof going to 30 cents
if sc72 goes bust but its only on feps books that they got the 80 mil loan with no financial responsibility/involvement from fecof..........then its possible that fecof could still barely survive the blow since its a holding company with other equity.....but fep will go under in that debt. glta
Lastly...... if there are huge finds like anadarkos and it costs less than 5 bil to invest there instead........then fecof will have a hard time finding investors quickly......which could explain why they didnt even have an offer, even before the chinese ramming incident.
you make a STRONG point about natural gas/liquified gas going for more in that region.......i just hope that the accountants find justification to give the green light for full scale production..... if they think we can only "recover" 10 bil worth,,,,,,,i dont see them investing 5 bil............especially when the govt. will get half and then taxes too. I also know that the govt. wont charge taxes until they recoup their investment<5 bil>,,,,,,,,,,,but theres so many variables that to list only half of them and do the math, then you will come up with the wrong equation. Good luck to all
fep at 60 on low volume is nothing significant......imho
in other parts of the world like africa these discoveries are being made today:
"Anadarko Petroleum Corporation today announced the successful Barquentine-3 appraisal well encountered more than 662 net feet (202 meters) of natural gas pay in two high-quality Oligocene-aged fan systems, significantly expanding the estimated recoverable resource range to 15 to 30+ trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas, with an estimated 30 to 50+ Tcf of natural gas in place."
yes,,,,,,sorry about all of that....i also want it to stop. I'm not the agressor but i gave into it and i apologize.
for the record............. even if they go ahead and honor that 80 mil commitment, i'd like to know how its structured,,,,any dilution of the stock and what not.....I havent seen any details. Has anyone else?
if we get the 80 mil, and i actually do hope we get it under the right conditions/stipulations, it will be a do or die scenario........'all in" as they say in poker.
if we dont get to the gas deposits for whatever reasons,,,maybe those similar to Nidof, then this debt......even one that only comes with interest, can eventually bankrupt this company.....best example is american airlines filing today....their debt was more than their cash.....screwing shareholders.
if we reach the gas successfully it will give fecof/fep more control and a bigger piece of the pie of its ownership going forward as its ownership will surely be diluted again and again as partners come in.
its a true lottery ticket......a scratch off.......some scratchoffs are 1 dollar and some are 20 dollars.....whats important are the odds.......To act as if there is no risk here is to be in Denial.
my guestimates are if we got chinas blessings and accordance that sc72 is fully philipinos territory....then we will jump to 7 cents........ 3d results confirming the 4 tcf.....maybe 10 cents..........sucessful drilling......30 cents with high volatility........successful pumpimg and drilling 2 to 3 years and profits while paying down debt...........50 cents,,to 80 cents.....
a screw up like nidof and its bankrupt under its debt....1 to 1 1/2 years.....unless fep hits paydirt on another field as well which will be doubtful if burried in debt from their main focus on sc72........PXP seems more diversified to take a hit than fep and fecof.....and philex will keep rolling just fine if fep is a bust
a half billion market cap ??possible........maybe even a bil 3 years from now if all the stars are aligned perfectly.........and a risk all the way to zero if its no malampaya clone.............
I would not have invested 25 grand if there was no malampaya as precedent...<also malampaya was a 3 bil investment and this one is 5> thats a big jump in inflation costs...
if you can show that theres a good chance to recover 50 bil from a 5 bil investment in 8 years then it will get done...
5 bil... thats a helluva lot to roll on a crapshoot.....i could of had it my 25 g on netflix or apple 3 to 4 years ago...but the gambler in me strays away from the peter lynch approach, hopefully it doesnt smash into my face again this time. one payoff is all i need.
good luck to all.
sahd3g
i know about ta and also t&a.
i simply dont use technical analysis on any microcap stock like fecof......you will only be right half the time which is the same result as flipping a coin.................the volume on this is so ridiculous that if i buy 10 grand one day and my cousins sell their 25 grand tomorrow..............it just doesnt hold enough reason to put worth on those movements...........
when the volume jumps to over 2 million a day in either direction, then i will pay attention and do my research<whos buying, who's selling> and see if its time to sell or a buying opportunity.
insider buying or selling is a strong indicator and even then it should be analyzed closely on the motivating factors......example: paul allen sold microsoft shares continuously while microsoft was appreciating share price consistently........Paul allen simply wanted to diversiffy his money.
good luck to you
why was that nuclear plant in Japan given a market cap of negative 100 billion?? just because they couldnt get to the nuclear energy even though it was right there in front of them?Just because they had to clean up a big mess instead that costs billions?
Fecof is fairly priced for now...........i pray we can get to the gas and it produces, I'll be a rich man if that happens..............but till then its a looooooooooong shot.........fecof has less than 1% <.70>ownership in sc14.......and they need to , or fep needs to, come up with 80 mil to drill sc72......and China still hasnt said they will play fair................one step at a time........dont count your eggs before they hatch.
dont they teach that saying anymore?
yes...... fecof "looks" stong with a huge jump percentage wise on a down day and a much higher than average volume day..
what does it mean??
do the math........
one guy decided he'd invest 12 grand on it....
or maybe he and his brother put in 6 grand each investing in this long shot.......like when i put 30 grand on it..........
now ask yourself,,,,,,,,is this volume woth getting excited about? does it mean one thing or another?
wait for real advancements and maybe......just maybe we'll see a nice return......its gonna take time