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http://zolmax.com/investing/intercept-pharmaceuticals-given-new-600-00-price-target-at-citigroup-inc-icpt/189367/
http://tickerreport.com/banking-finance/104960/intercept-pharmaceuticals-price-target-increased-to-872-00-by-analysts-at-bank-of-america-corp-icpt/
http://www.northforkvue.com/investing/37416/intercept-pharmaceuticals-given-new-300-00-price-target-at-janney-montgomery-scott-icpt/
so i decided not to buy 10 thousand dollars worth of "plug" when it was trading at 15 cents 10 months ago, and average down on fecof instead........how do you think i'm feeling right about now?
the only thing that can make up for it is for fecof to give me the same return i just missed on plug..........a move that has to be from one penny to roughly 30 cents.......... and at this point in the game fecof isnt even playing ball , nowhere in the ballgame.....wish us luck in 2014 we deserve it for sticking with this so long.
plug was labeled "a going concern" at 15 cents and now is around 4 bucks with all those contracts anounced................hopefully sc72 gets done and we turn this stock around......I,m suprised its holding up near a penny with no progress in sight.
happy new year................ ihope 2014 brings everyone health and hopefully some good news and events for fecof even though it seems farther than ever today......... heres a recent article summing up a few things.
http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/china/articles/20131229.aspx
less than 10 more trading days to go until 2014 is here...
I really though we'd be seeing .0060's around this time as selling has usually taken place for tax losses this time of year......it might still happen but i must say I am impressed with the strong hands .....or is it that people dont want the hassle of trying to buy it back with low volume...........either way it reflects a strong base.
as shown today it only takes small purchases to get this stock moving in double digit percentage gains...
I dont see any news whatsoever in the short term to make this move up..........an asean alliance possibly getting together excluding china to form an opec type arrangment in the south sea would be nice but that would be to let my hopes or desires get away from reality......
what is the next catalyst??? is this suppose to just dwindle until china decides to back off? I dont see that happening.....although thats exactly whats at risk.....I would love to see the usa and japan help the philipines develope sc72 just to put a finger in chinas eye and see this project rolling........thats one way to justify americas growing naval presence in the south china sea and in the process keeping china in check.
jello just for fun....this is where i got the idea that its still for sale :
<The Foxconn deal “could lead to other partnerships that may help lead to the sale of BlackBerry,” Wang told MarketWatch.
Referring to BlackBerry’s new chief executive officer, he added: “John Chen is there to sell the company not turn it around.”
Chen took over as BlackBerry CEO last month after the company’s plan to sell itself to Fairfax Financial fell through. Foxconn, best known for its relationship with Apple Inc. AAPL, will help “develop and manufacture certain new BlackBerry devices and manage the inventory associated with those devices,” BlackBerry said. The deal will initially focus on making smartphones for the Indonesian market and other emerging markets, BlackBerry said.>
found in this link
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/12/20/foxconn-deal-makes-it-easier-for-john-chen-to-sell-blackberry-says-analyst/
i saw that too late....i missed it when i glanced at it and sold early......that 4.4 bil lose thru me for a loop...or when they say it lost 8 a share it sounded like they ran out of all their cash...............I wouldnt touch it here at seven.not long or short...its burn rate can be suprising and go either way........ceo says two years before becoming profitable...all this action is due to a short squeeze and options expiring today..........its probably just a hold at seven til further notice......if he wants to sell the company i guess book value comes into play.............didnt take advanced acounting so i'm not sure what to make of the writedown or how it works........could it be to their advantage?
i was long for the cash/value......i saw the numbers and it made my stomach turn......got out for a small profit .......had no idea this short squeeze was going to make this stock shoot so high.........or i would have ridden it out longer....
theres no doubt though that when this squeeze is over, the stock will drop to below 6 again..............its burn rate is obviously not done...........and im honestly suprised they anounced they still had all that cash after losing 4.4 billion in one quarter.........they must be including loans...anyways it will be a going concern by next quarter if their cash is actually from loans,,,,,numbers didnt really add up
possibility???
here is a link on how japan desperately needs alternatives to its now defunct nuclear energy program.......and with billions spent on woeing asias neighbors into closer ties against chinas bullying,,,,,,,,,,why not foot the 5 billion dollar price tag for the reed bank development and send a navy to help the protect the south china sea against china...........If china gets to control the south china sea like they want ,Japan will find itself surrounded by a growing enemy..............Just my two cents on One potential investor we hadnt thought about before.....coming from the second largest economy......Japan.
Just a thought,,,,,and maybe a possibility
http://news.yahoo.com/japan-39-trade-deficit-soars-fuel-import-costs-014829686--finance.html
recapping an old story which the mindset of pangilinan and possible outcomes or stalemate are in play
http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/business/01/17/13/pangilinan-oil-project-schina-sea-needs-china-or-us-support
nido petroleum has 22.8% working interest in galoc....
and fep.l has 2.27................its as close to 10% of whatever nido "nidof" petroleum has in galoc , as you can get..
very easy math for us if we look at it from that point of view and nido does all the homework for us. 10% of nidos estimates for us.
My conclusion like yours <hdymaniac> is hopeful that fep.l gets more than nidos estimates and thats why my numbers are more than 10% of nido's numbers.
Nido is correct to underestimate because the price of oil could very well drop to 60 dollars a barrel.....or go to 120 for that matter.....so its good for them to put out conservative numbers when stating "reasonable" figures.
we all know that we are not in this investment for the galoc field...........and I should add that fecofs burn rate thru their current cash was 325K the last 12 months..........
these numbers wont help fecofs cash holding or cash flow but only their equity as fep.l's financial statements improve.
the good news is that even though fecof might be a going concern on paper, they will still be able to borrow based on equity holdings or sell fep.l's shares if they get in a bind with this damn extended waiting period.
Not to kid ourselves......this is still an all or nothing investment but galoc definitely will keep the bills paid for fep.l and indirectly improve fecof for the time being.....a few years at least until some possible deal gets done.
besides sc72..... whats fep.l's plan b? whats their secondary strategy? is it just galoc or is there something else brewing to add to their bottom line? what about fecof themselves?
I wish there was more opportunity to hold us over before this long wait of an uncertain outcome with sc72.............but i guess it is what it is.......and why we trade so low here(for now).
FORUM ENERGY PLC
("Forum Energy" or the "Company")
COMMENCEMENT OF PRODUCTION FROM GALOC PHASE II
The Directors of Forum Energy note today's announcement released by Otto Energy Limited ("Otto") (ASX:OEL), the operator of the Galoc Phase II joint venture offshore the Philippines in which Forum Energy has a 2.27% participating interest.
The Otto announcement confirms that Galoc-5H and 6H wells have been successfully commissioned and that the four wells in the field are currently producing 14,500 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") (329 bopd net to Forum Energy).
Following the testing and optimisation period, which is likely to be completed in the middle of the first quarter of 2014, Forum Energy understands that production is then initially expected to be optimised at a lower level of up to 12,000 bopd 273 bopd net to Forum Energyurl][tag]insert-text-here[/tag] However, there is no guarantee that this optimised level of production will be achieved. The Company does not expect to be able to announce the ongoing level of production from the four wells until the optimisation period has completed.
Stylgian: This is what I get from this article/statement
$27,000 a day for forum.......a quarter of a mil every 10 days
a million every 40 days
TEN million in 400 days <1 year and 5 weeks>
so in a little over a year its fair to say fecof's share of that flow....revenue flow.......will be 2.5 million worth.....i believe 55 to 70% will be profit.........1.5 mil in profits.
I can estimate that from an e-mail i got from Nido where they explain their expectations as :
"Nido could reasonably expect to receive revenue of around US$70 – 80
million and around A$45 million in free cash flow over 2014 leaving aside the repayment of debt"
and this could be found in this link:http://www.nido.com.au//IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx/PDFs/2022-33725361/CompanyInterviewRelease
we are well into december and i havent seen much if any tax selling in this stock other than those 2 million shares in 2 days 2 weeks ago.......maybe it will happen closer to the end of the month,,,,,,,,,but if it doesnt happen it seems we have a very strong investor base, at least around a penny. I for one dont mind picking a few up at .005 if it happens.
FEP.L is also holding up extremely well in regards with all the negative news and what looks like a much prolonged stalemate before any deal or compromise.
its time for american made submarines and its parts all made in american manufacturing plants...........the asian world needs them and our<usa> economy could benefit for once.
Japan, Philippines alarmed by China's new air zone
12:29 AM Sunday Dec 8, 2013
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Asia
MANILA, Philippines (AP) Japan's defense minister says China's unilateral air defense identification zone in the East China Sea raises regional tensions and the international community must oppose any move to establish a similar zone in the South China Sea.
Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera told reporters Saturday after meeting with Philippine Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin that he and Gazmin discussed reports that China is considering establishing a similar zone in the South China Sea.
Onodera said the "unilateral establishment of an ADIZ in any area" would raise regional tensions.
When asked about concerns that China might set up a similar zone over the South China Sea, China's ambassador to the Philippines, Ma Keqing, said Monday that it was China's right to decide "where and when to set up" an air identification zone.
eom ....im not impressed with this article, these alpha writers could be you or I....blogging for dollars.....
the statement that this will go unresolved for a century or two shows that this is a naive kid writing this.
this will be done in a few extreme possibilities.......china simply takes....phil and usa simply take sc72,,,,,,,,,,,,,or they compromise....all within 2 or 3 years tops.............hopefully sooner because i might develope a tumor on my brain by overhtinking this investment.
I for one am very happy that china has pissed off the japanese......
I'm sure that right about now China wishes they had forced the adiz zone on the south china sea first <specifically over sc72> before applying it to Japan.......now they are worried about upping the ante'. if they try it now the Usa can come in as defenders from prior provocation in the east china sea..........Thanks China...........you AINT so smart after-all CHINA
eom ....im not impressed with this article, these alpha writers could be you or I....blogging for dollars.....
the statement that this will go unresolved for a century or two shows that this is a naive kid writing this.
this will be done in a few extreme possibilities.......china simply takes....phil and usa simply take sc72,,,,,,,,,,,,,or they compromise....all within 2 or 3 years tops.............hopefully sooner because i might develope a tumor on my brain by overhtinking this investment.
I for one am very happy that china has pissed off the japanese......
I'm sure that right about now China wishes they had forced the adiz zone on the south china sea first <specifically over sc72> before applying it to Japan.......now they are worried about upping the ante'. if they try it now the Usa can come in as defenders from prior provocation in the east china sea..........Thanks China...........you AINT so smart after-all CHINA
EOM>>>>>continued:
The South China Sea is the region stretching from Singapore to the Straits of Malacca and it is considered to be one of the most important trade routes in the world. Whoever gains dominance of this region will be able to exert influence on trade patterns and strategic partnerships in the entire Asian-Pacific region. After reading these statistics, you will understand exactly why China is seeking influence and asserting power in this region.
1.More than 50% of the world's annual merchant fleet tonnage travels through the Straits of Malacca, the majority of which continues through the South China Sea
2.Over 14 million barrels of crude oil travel through this region per day (roughly 33% of all global oil movement)
3.Around 190 trillion cubic feet estimated natural gas reserves ($750 billion worth at today's market price)
4.Estimated 11.2 billion barrels of crude oil reserves (Over $1 trillion worth at market prices)
The energy reserves of the region are perhaps the largest driver of aggression in the South China Sea. China is attempting to exert authority in the area in order to lay claim to its vast resources. The recent incursion represents a victory for China.
China: An Energy Importer
China is a significant energy importer. According to data gathered from the EIA, China imported over 1.3 TCF of natural gas per year. Assuming the shale-depressed Henry Hub price of $3.95/MMBTU, this means that China ran a natural gas deficit of $4.6 billion dollars in 2012. Influence in the South China Sea provides China the opportunity to retain these funds for internal development and job creation. The problem is readily apparent in the two following graphs.
(Click to enlarge)
Since 2006, China has operated at an energy deficit. This is significant in that funds are constantly flowing from China to other nations in an accelerating fashion as seen in the chart below:
Not only is China bleeding funds through gas deficits, but the picture is even starker when examining crude oil. China has consumed more crude than it has produced since 1993. As of last year, China was losing an estimated $201 billion each year through crude oil deficits.
(Click to enlarge)
(Click to enlarge)
China is engaged in a dangerous battle to secure energy resources in the South China Sea. Not only is it seeking these resources, but Japan, Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam are all battling as well. The war has been ongoing for decades and the end is nowhere in sight, but the nimble investor can profit from the regional volatility resulting from this conflict.
Profit from Uncertainty
In such a complicated region, a simple thesis such as "buy this stock" simply does not exist. However, through event-driven investments, we can best position ourselves to profit. The complexity of the issue allows profit in a myriad of investments and markets.
CNOOC
The investment which will most directly benefit from the South China Sea territorial dispute is this China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CEO). CNOOC, the third largest petroleum company in China, stands to benefit greatly in that it is already producing and exploring the South China Sea. As China extends its reach, CNOOC will be able to legally access greater quantity of reserves boosting revenues. I believe that the best investment is a long term call option. Volatility is a major component in option pricing and I believe that the volatility resulting from the coming years of action in this region will greatly benefit holders of these derivatives.
Petro China
A slightly more complicated beast, Petro China (PTR) will also profit from this Chinese incursion. Petro China is not only involved in exploration and production, but also refining. Refining is a complicated creature in that the absolute price of crude oil or refined products is nearly irrelevant. What matters to a refinery is the difference in value between crude oil and the products it produces. Since Petro China engages in this field, its benefit from additional energy resources will be unknown on its refining side, but beneficial to its exploration and production departments. Net-net, I believe that an outright long position in PTR will benefit in the long run as China gains greater access to energy resources.
WTI
West Texas Intermediate is the global benchmark for crude oil prices. The majority of all global oil trades on a basis to this important contract. Interestingly enough, even though WTI is almost never processed at a foreign refinery, world events greatly impact the price of this instrument. The South China Sea conflict is interesting from a pricing standpoint in that since several countries are fighting over this region, the majority of the crude oil remains locked beneath the sea. I believe that China's incursion into the region will unlock more resources placing downward pressure on WTI prices as global output increases. The most profitable way to play this will be either a time-trade in futures contracts or shorting an oil ETF (USO) or (OIL).
Foreign Exchange
In 2012, China sold more than $200 billion worth of yuan to purchase dollars necessary to buy energy for its economy. China's territorial gain means that it will need to convert fewer Yuan to dollars to fund its deficit. This is where we investors profit. As China sells less Yuan and purchases fewer dollars there will be profit potential in both of these currencies. Dollar demand will decline by over $200 billion per year, generating profits in short positions of (UUP) and long positions of (UDN). Yuan sales will decrease by $200 billion equivalent, potentially rewarding (CYB) and (CNY) holders as supply of offered Yuan diminishes.
The South China Sea dispute will probably not be resolved in the coming months or years. Nations have fought over this region for many years and as drilling techniques have improved, the desperation of energy deficient nations has increased. I believe that a final solution is centuries in the making but for now, we can profit from short term political gains and losses in the region. Specifically, I believe that China's recent gains allow the nimble investor the potential to profit in a variety of instruments and markets.
heres a dumb question......
I know gas is a different price on that part of the world.....much higher btu prices in asia..but what about barrels of oil.......is it the same price as the market shows a barrel of oil in the low 90's? or is it higher in that region as well?
Im a bit clueless considering oil analysis........Fecof is actually my first foray of investing in an oil play.
Im not too happy with bidens influence on china...........but if the philipines feel like a shorter end of the stick is better than no stick at all...maybe they cut a deal, give china some royalties they dont really deserve and have sc72 get done.......china seemed willing to do just that <as if they were doing the philipines a favor> 6 to 8 months ago.
sorry.......that previous link was in error,,,,,i thought i copied something else, heres something recent and relevant.....
maybe we need a show of strength, whatever the outcome.....to sit back and let the chinese slowly invade as germany once did in ww2 is a bad strategy.
http://news.yahoo.com/china-gives-no-ground-biden-air-zone-dispute-225844557--politics.html
i had to google this guy Finian,,,,,,,
this author even in his pictures fit the sterotypical irish drunk with a socialist mindset.................he is even quoted as saying ameica's action to the adiz was "beligerent"...probably something his wife use to call him on a daily basis....thus projecting himself.
he doesn't mention that this adiz was over "contested islands" and has a very biased view in favor of the communist chinese.....trying to convince us that when japan "took" those islands pre 1900 it was imperialistic and somehow after 100 years they still belong to china..............maybe he should write an article for cyprus too.
if we didnt know already how the chinese have been pushing their limits over a year now with sc72, you might consider his crap article and opinions in an attempt to sell his blog posts as legitimate........
if the dollar crashes so will chinas economy because we wont buy any of their garbage if we become poor..Welcome to globalization.......china has been trying to replace the reserve currency for over a decade now.....first with the euro.......and now as the euro is failing/debt ridden ...........they halted that..........the rmb is communist money.....do you think people will use that as a reserve? ..........OLD news by a desperate anti american drunk............just my opinion
if the dollar crashes aaple will sell a shitload of iphones for being so inexpensive in dollar conversion money.......and the stock market would actually double as the new currency becomes Stocks. Real estate will also double as foreigners roll into america to buy cheap land from the brave and the free.......and those same chinese who are buying up portugal just for visas will be running to buy american land too.......not communist land.
no there is no current chill from the Depository trust corporation.........there are no restrictions.........this stock is just traded extremely thin......for now thats not so great but if the project gets a green light without further military conflict from the communist chinese........this stock has a Huge risk/reward scenario.......all or nothing but with the success of malampaya nearby shows their chances are pretty damn good.....
the chill here is of the investor sentiment type,,,,,,,,,people are simply scared it wont get done with chinas harrassment and claim of ownership.....but theyve already showed the philipnos they were ready to split the royalties..........which means they'd settle for less.they just want control of that regions oil and strategically placed new navy for their enventual takeover of the spratlys all to themselves<china>.
fox news was showing a good piece segment on this morning/afternoon with updates on the east china sea/ japan/ and USA on the conflict of china sending in Jets and how this may play out going forward......they say even bad news is good publicity.......hard to believe that this news could somehow benefit us......
simply the more anti sentiment against the chinese for acting this way because of informing the public thru fox news/etc..........the better for us.
its true that nobody is going to want to invest in fep.l while this is going on.........BUT when this blows over ...real opportunists/ investors, will know that this scuffle was all about oil and gas and now those roadblocks <are> removed.............so consider this a prepping up of future investors right before the tide turns in our favor....
if the tide doesnt turn then we are looking at world war 3 and our money will be junk anyways so this risk is somewhat justified...
good luck