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these guys must want to buy this stock cheap if they are bashing it just as the company paid for p.r. <public relations>....
if i thought something was a pump and dump i wouldnt waste time going to investorshub and posting to stay away from it....especially since it keeps going up and nobody has been burnt yet..............whats the motive?? good summaritan?? please spare me.
this is high risk but a better longshot then Hemp or some other runaway pot stock with very few revs to show for it.'
one thing you all should keep in mind..........THE GOLDEN RULE.........SUPPLY AND DEMAND.............they are just now for the first time starting "pot funds" for diversification...................these money managers MUST buy these "pot stocks"now as money comes in for them to invest it specifically for these stocks...........what better legitimate investment than nvlx?.......the demand<money> is greater than the sellers right now and managers will have to keep adding these shares just so they can get their 5% fee for managing these funds........
think about it.
is this a buy?
still keeping the issue fresh.......at least one good thing.
http://www.thestar.com.my/News/World/2014/02/07/China-denounces-outrageous-Philippine-WW2-comparison/
still keeping the issue fresh.......at least one good thing.
http://www.thestar.com.my/News/World/2014/02/07/China-denounces-outrageous-Philippine-WW2-comparison/
looks to finally be basing here before moving up in a few days
this stock definitely wants to go higher....
am i right or am i right?
check the 5 day chart........it pops here and there with a good spike in volume on the upside.......
a few more trading days and it will be above 1.60 plus...
defintely a floor around 1.40
i personally like this because of the limited risk with all its cash,,,,,,and maybe another 18 mil on the way
im not sure what you mean by "shadow" ...if theres a technical term ...or if you mean metaphorically..........
but either way,,,,,,,,good luck to you.....
and yes....a stock that opens up 25% and comes all the way down to pre-anouncement level is pretty f-upped....
buying opp? i dont know anymore...........seems like its just a renewal contract /extension that was a expected...........maybe i'll hold a bit longer........hope they anounce a 35 mil contract that makes this move more than the 7 bil contract did so i can get out at $8
i didnt see a 13 dollar open........i saw a 9 dollar open
a single trade in pre market shouldnt even be looked at even if it did hit 13........theres no way for me to even see if that was correct 2 days later
either way.....this stock needs some strong buy recommendations and i just dont see it anywhere.........they should have been here today with upgrades.......the consensus shows it neutral and hold.......
whatever.......good luck to all..
everytime this hit over 7.70 today there were big blocks of sell orders driving it back down.........not very inspiring for longs.
can this be a good long term stock? i dont trust this overall market..........it could drag everything down........market is up and this stock is down today..........very crappy
what a horrible open.............its as if this 5 year contract was simply expected and already priced in.........like a renewal contract/continuation................is that what happened here?
what a horrible open.............its as if this 5 year contract was simply expected and already priced in.........like a renewal contract/continuation................is that what happened here?
wow..........you guys are a "fiesty" bunch
any court case has a "chance" of being overturned........thats SIMPLY FACT
your statement of "NO CHANCE" is simply Opinion
and i hope you are right on the verdict.............but i do feel its arrogant to make such false statements that it has "no chance"........this arrogance will make you one day bet the entire farm and lose it all.....
even carlos slim who bet huge on apple which made him the richest guy in the world did not bet the farm on apple.......maybe he bet 20% of his worth at best when he made that investment.....
Diversify bro....thats all i'm preaching..........dont get so defensive people.......just realize the price drop here is not that big of a bargain<although in hindsight it might>........its still speculative and a risk play.....you can buy it cheaper.
good luck to you acrazjo.......and to me too.I own it at 4.5.........but i wont bet Everything I Have like one poster said.....
and neither will you since you just said you'd invest upto 20% of your portfolio on this,,,,,,,,,,and not 100%.........because even if you think its just a 1 % chance of failure or overturn.........well then thats still enough reason not to bet the "bank"....
I'll go on the recors and say you can probably pick this up for 3.50 within the next 4 weeks if not sooner as the market corrects and this lack of news in between periods will give it more profit takers than buyers...
maybe you should add to your position at those prices.this is still inflated for what is still a risk position hinging on a judge who may disagree...........may or may not be bought.......google is no small player............and if a settlement was offered its not out of question they might take a much lower certain $$ settlement as well.
yes i would not only admit that but benefit greatly from it.......
but in the appeal everything can be overturned.......wether justifiable or money under the table by big business..............you just never know.....so til then this price and below is actually justified because its still SPECULATIVE
UNTIL we cross that bridge.....after the appeal then its "money in the Bank" or "no money in the Bank"
arcazjo....
you shouldnt bet the Bank on one stock.,.......all this talk about Money in the bank, guaranteed 1 bil.......etc...........
isnt it true that it can be overturned on appeal.......
or a revision of the penalty or royalty amount if any at that...
in the world of big politics and courtrooms breathes an infectious bacteria that can overtake a healthy mind and body overnight..............that bacteria is called human nature and it has been prone to suprise its victims with sudden and unjustified symptoms of severe sickness and leading up to Death.
buyer beware.... high risk play......sure why not.......money in the bank?? that saying is for suckers
this stock was shooting up because the headline sounded like "money in the bank"....but when people realized the money Is Not in the Bank yet and can be overturned on appeal.........it got traded back down to its speculative trading range....with a big benefit of the doubt too
eoms reply was true to the fact that its a NG<natural gas> play,,,,,,,,,,,,but the prices there mean absolutely nothing if the field is stolen from us from the Chinese //// which the world is scared to stand up against in the fear of retaliation....both economic warfare and military.
the stock price will simply skyrocket if china agrees not to harass SC72/reed bank anymore.............i doubt that............they <china>have come too far and are waiting for the philipines to give them a cut of the royalties.......as high as 50%............the phil govt. may or may not give in to those terms........maybe they'll add to the deal somehow with economic support from china..etc...
there is a fear that nobody talks about......besides stalemate......as china takes small reefs and shoals like the scarborogh shoal.....they might get close enough to simply drill nearby and siphon away the gas from a nearby reserve and suck sc72 dry and claim they were further away from the eez zone of the philipines.........
Look...this is a GAMBLE right now......... but it pays out better than the roulette wheel 36/ 1 payout........ and the odds are waaaaaay better.at least a 25% chance as of now.,,,,,,,and might get better if Obama grew some balls
the closer to .005 we get ........the less of a gamble of fecofs holdings in fep.l ..... which are not worthless , even without a "sc72" in the mix........anything much higher than .005 is a big gamble on sc72
I predicted we'd see these prices right before new years...........well........i was off by a month, but here we are......for those who can stomach it......they might want to add now................not later on some hype that brings it up temporarily to .03 cents
glta
good choice mr miami
i'm glad you made some cash.........now its my turn to make some cash on this swing play.........why dont you buy some under 1.45 and make a nice 30% to 40% within 2 months or less...........
i personally think oil should come down 20% regardless.........america is energy independent for the first time since i was born........and thats mostly due to tapping into natural gas as well as more oil fields........
when i was paying 5 dollars a gallon for gasoline and a barrel was 150 <because george bush was buying it for our national reserves/lobby friends>, people were saying we'd see 500 a barrel oil............but instead a recession/depression gripped us and oil went to 20 dollars a barrel....<nobody drove to walmart, they stayed home......nobody drove to work, they got reduced to part time hours<less oil consumption>>.....
a fair price even from the oil companies themselves puts a barrel around 65 a barrel but speculation of war.......and rumors of the saudi govt overstating their reserves keeps the price higher.
Real Variables to consider.....
we have 8 billion people and growing every year.......most of them in china and in india.............the fasted growing energy markets and car buying markets.......big plus for oil consumption.....<even as they build solar cities>...........electric cars are still way off from making a serious impact on global consumption.
another big factor is that energy in asia..specifically natural gas is waaaaay more expensive than in america...........FEP's reserves are mostly Gas and not Oil.............although there should still be lots of oil........"LNG" what Japan wants to switch over to ever since their nuclear fiasco is also expensive.......so an lng factory and supply is badly needed there.
SO whats keeping FECOF'S price down????
China simply wont let them and the USA govt. has NOT thrown FULL Support behind the philipines drilling in their own EEZ.......in sc72..........so its a standstill....
if oil prices fell to 60 dollars a barrel this will still get done if china wasnt in the way..............its also about the philipines becoming energy independent.........they could use their earnings from MALAMPAYA the next 3 years to fund this govt drilling themselves to stay energy independent..........the worst thing a govt can do is to let their money go oversees to pay for energy.......instead of keeping the cash at home where it can get taxed exponentially as it keeps switching hands.
If a recession like 2007/2008 hits again we can definitely see oil drop to 25 dollars a barrel again,,,,,,,,,,and then the project will have a hard time finding funding ratther then it not being cost efficient.............theres more than 50 billion in those wells........drop it to 10 billion and its still worth spending 3 to 4 bil to get it done just for the reasons i mentioned before......and the eventual upside to higher prices again.
I hope this helps
nido recently put out a report by their p.r. firm the edison report.......Nido owns a big chunk of galoc 22%.....
the following link gives an update including galoc
http://www.nido.com.au//IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx/PDFs/2034-47760923/EdisonResearchReport
Its important to note that this report came out yesterday and still there was no volume whatsoever in nido traded today...........theres no interest even at compelling values....
this might be due to peoples perceptions that nido is only in the philipine areas which its not.....or that the money has simply dried up and we could have a severe correction in the stock market.
if this bafoon obama continues to do the wrong things like hiking minimum wage 40% we are in big trouble.
fep.l at 75pence down only half from its 2012 high and holding up nicely this year all things considering.
to reiterate, fecof anywhere below .005 would be a "less risky" bet due to its percentage of fep.l and the galoc producing field bringing in revenues....
in all fairness though, nido or stock "nidof" has a "22%" stake in galoc and lots of promise and is also trading at .03 cents now giving it less than a 2 p.e. and roughly a 3 p.e. going forward.......even if the p.e. valuations are somehow justified....this cash flow pays itself off in 3 years.............crazy
fep.l at 75pence down only half from its 2012 high and holding up nicely this year all things considering.
to reiterate, fecof anywhere below .005 would be a "less risky" bet due to its percentage of fep.l and the galoc producing field bringing in revenues....
in all fairness though, nido or stock "nidof" has a "22%" stake in galoc and lots of promise and is also trading at .03 cents now giving it less than a 2 p.e. and roughly a 3 p.e. going forward.......even if the p.e. valuations are somehow justified....this cash flow pays itself off in 3 years.............crazy
thank god nobody was allowed to buy this stock on margin.....
as we hit multiyear lows on this, at least we wont be forced to cover a margin call and add to the selling.
this is also why i wont bother to sell any shares........just a 14,000 sell order made this drop 30% and to yearly lows.
I still hold out hope this will get done one day but i give it less than a 25% chance in the next 2 years.....and maybe a 50% chance in the next 4 years.....<i hope i'm pleasantly suprised by it getting done sooner>.......depends how long you can stomach the wait on this dog of a stock.
good luck to all.
Stylgian
very neighborly reply.....
and thats fitting since i live in Miami too....... yes I was sincere and thanks for not taking it the wrong way.....
It is in your favor to be short on the majority of stocks going into monday with the broad selloff and us being near market tops.....
But specifically with Luna I simply think you are taking too much risk for potential if youre still short........stocks are rare to actually trade close to cash levels unless they are BURNING thru their
cash rapidly like bbry was doing......Thats not the case with luna..... this 1.50 range may be the floor.... or the computer generated selling may offer me an even better bargain and i would add more shares if it drops below 1.50....
but why short for another 10 to 20 cents when this can reverse anytime and go up 30 to 50% even within a day from here.
just my opinion and good luck to you.
ps........I would bet big money the founder has sold his entire position by now....only big selling may be computer generated from here on out.....
but there can also be buying as this micro cap just became a small cap and opened up to new fund potential/limitations
mr. Miami Gent.....
if you are still shorting this at 1.60 you obviously have a death wish.......... since the story more than 11 million shares have traded in those 3 days..................and all he had to do was to sell 2 million shares.........if he was smart and i do believe he was.......he was selling on the very first day when 6.5 million shares traded after anouncement........above 3 dollars a share..........why would he wait?? and why would he wait after that conference call when the ceo told everyone??
this sell position has been sold and this is near cash value,,,,,,,if they get the 18 mil milestone payment then they have 33 mil in cash and a market cap of 23 mil........are you trying to fool us??
i'm doing you a favor by say ing this......"fill your short Now"
otherwise youre just pulling our leg so you can buy cheaper
yup............. down to .031 thats a forward looking p.e. of 3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,dare I say its cheap and watch it go lower? they did give shares out at .025 with warrants.....about a year ago nonetheless....maybe this is some of those people.....even at .025 they are still up 20%
No................... i dont have level 2 so i wouldnt even know its there........
thats 30 grand.......... nothing a dentist couldnt buy in one full swoop.......
I wonder if thats an individual investor or a market maker
i dont have level2........ is there an abreviation/name on it?
i have to admit we have some strong hands on this board..........the swing traders have already left.....it seems its mostly a group of all or nothing here.................which makes sense because once you start selling into an illiquid market like this one you will drive it down yourself.
i think Galoc makes this<fecof> worth at least .003 to .005<hopefully recognized as a floor>,,,,,,,,also its fair to note that fep.l has been holding very strong but i wont make the valuation comparison ....its already been done.
its almost less of a high risk trade from here ............hopefully we are pleasantly suprised 16 months from now or even sooner............recent headlines are predicting a japan-sino war.......so hopefully the opposite happens and we get deals going.
our little stock will make us rich or WE will go down in history as owning the company that world war 3 was started over,,,,,,,,,and it will be the death of us all.........so in a way being invested in this stock will be just the same as any other stock at the end of the world.........
tongue in cheek
good luck all
Hello Johnny,
I hope your investment decision works out best for you when it comes along .
things you should avoid when investing.
1. dont invest/gamble more than you can afford to lose, which also means dont invest money you will need to pull out at a certain time period especially if thats a year or less.....
.Warren Buffet just sat around and waited for his stocks to become popular and bought them before they were ever on the radar of being popular.
2. being impatient and spontaneous is a bad investment strategy for anyone.....emotional investing will make you make the wrong decision 90% of the time..............thats why contrarian investing is so successful.........the majority of investment/sheep trade with emotions.
As far as the deadline goes......That will surely be pushed back under the agreed fact that there was a political roadblock with china .......the same reason it was already pushed back earlier.
this can become huge or this can become a bust.........even pxmff is at a multiyear low right now,,,,,15 cents.
I believe with the earlier comment that if it takes over a year from now....the philipines might give a piece of their royalties just to get this done........and thus paving the road for china to grab the whole of the spratlies in land air and sea rights....BUT at least we will see a decent return for our risk and patience.
I feel less certain it will get done but the risk of missing this boat is larger than the fear i have on losing 80% of this capital invested......ive pulled out early way too many times before and could have been a millionaire many times over by now if i showed patience and strength.
furthermore........if i was to start getting out of my 3 million share investment.....i would single handedly be responsible for bringing the stock to .004 before i even sold half my investment... so why even bother....I'm married to this til death do us part, weather i like it or not...a divorce would cost me 80%.......same as if they anounced this deal dead and burried,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,therefore i'll just consider it lost in my mind and hopefully be suprised in 18 months.
p.s. a government agreement would push this higher moreso than a corporate partnership<rightfully so>...........as it is certain that a partnership will be anounced if china /philipines agree..........and if a partnership happens before the two countries agree ,,,,,well then there is no guarantee the counties <china> will agree to the actual drilling.
good luck to all
good luck
Poll Time
i am not trying to persuade anyone........just curious what the consensus is and this group of investors is as good a poll taking as you can find for fecof.
are you ......?
A: Holding this stock even if it stays a dog all of 2014 with no progressive news.
OR
B: Have a time frame within 2014 to see some real progress and expectations of price movement or you will sell.
Just curious,
thanks, Styl
just past 300 the first hour of trading on super high volume the first hour.
2 things to note.
volume very high for the first hour to compare the last 5 trading days
must be institutional buyers on a no news day that are fueling this....its not ordinary investors.....maybe its johnson and johnson or pfizer building a position to get a directors chair to peak into their technology.....
anyways,,,,the psychological 300 barrier has been passed...........this MAY reach 350 today or a few more trading days.
theres lots and lots to learn...but if you want to keep it simple and still make loads of cash without huge risk,
i strongly suggest you get a copy of the book "how to beat the market pros" by peter lynch...its an older book but the most helpful you can ever read....his investment strategy will teach you how to invest in stocks like aaple when you bought your first ipod or itunes <30 a share>,,,or netflix when everyone started using their subscrition <$15 a share>...foolproof stuff...and letting it ride.
icpt is considered high risk here..we dont even know the profit margins...this should represent like only 5 to 7% of your investment capital...high risk speculation and even moreso at these levels......
but even amazon.com had crazy runups back in the day and it survived the dotcom crash to become a hugely succesful company...
anyway...looking at the chart and the strory here..i agree that this needs to flatten out for maybe another week before running much higher on speculation and further hype...I'll probably sell at 350 myself for a short term healthy gain of 30% profit
if you double 10 grand into 20 grand, and then double again at 40 and keep compounding it...you can make reach 1.2 mil by doubling/compounding 10 grand 7 times.
good luck to you.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/05/21/how-peter-lynch-destroyed-the-market.aspx
http://www.amazon.com/Beating-Street-Peter-Lynch/dp/0671891634
cartman..........
this stock has options......any stock that has options trades funny..........if someone is buying puts because someone is selling the puts cheaply........then the stock will go lower without its shares actually being sold.....
imagine this....
i buy 100 shares of icpt.......and i am Loooooong term on this..........then why shouldnt I WRITE put options <covered writing is 80% profitable> on the stock i own....if someone wants to give me an extra 10% on a stock i think is going up anyway.why shouldnt i take it? if the stock goes down at least i got 10% back for holding it for a 2 month period..........it hedges my losses..........i can also buy a put to protect from losses but if i have a strong buy projection, i am better off selling the put<writing a covered put option for someone else to buy it>.............the market makers must adjust for this.<market makers are also some of the scum of the earth that will manipulate stock prices around fridays to make certain options expire worthless...........
its like a bookie taking bets,,,,,,,,,,,,,,if they can control the outcome of the game.............they would be happy for the game to be a tie with the spread/vig...this way they are guaranteed an entire 10% <110 dollar bet to win 100 dollars>profit on every game per day without taking any serious risk.
I hope this helps
i got more mail from nidof yesterday..they are expanding their partnerships with farm in agreements, so there is still interest in the area........some company named dragon oil .......must be chinese...........something getting done around the area is better than no interest at all.
pre hours manipulation
they have already managed to bring the stock down<pre market/temporarily> by 5% on only 10 k shares in cahoots with the market makers who all work for companies that put huge target prices on this stock. Why would they do that?
they get to buy cheaper call options on the stock and buy it outright cheaper at open........they obviously want to buy a more huge chunk of this before dumping it themselves around 350 to 375
4th quarter will bring solid news and everything in between will be hype.............can you all wait that long? will the stock not buckle til then? are those 600 dollar price targets for 2015 or for next week?
they will own a market all to themselves..is that market worth 15 billion??? to justify 600 to 700 a share?
not even pfizer jumped that high when they came out with Viagra.a market for everyone...........one of the best selling pills ever.....at 20 dollars a pill no less.....
I am long but will take 350 a share when it comes........i'll buy more if it drops under 200.............whatever comes first.
this meeting/conference at jpmorgan healthcare conference has already taken place......they will recast the tape soon,,,,,,,,,,,,,,heres info and a link........no strong reaction yet most likely due to the fact that the strong reaction already happened last week.....................they will digest the information and see about wether to add more shares or take profits.......nontheless..at least some profit taking is expected at these levels.......only 70 dollars a share last week and lower thruout the year..........
still a great story with good forward returns if you can stomach the volatility for the next 2 or 3 weeks,,,,,i still say 350 to 375 price target reached somewhere between 2 or 3 weeks.theres always games with these options too.......big boys want your options to expire worthless and play head games till you sell out your positions....less than 20% of options are profitable.....so the covered writing is a cash cow.
good luck to longs
you might want to wait today till the very end of the trading day..........heres why:
already more than twice the volume the first hour of trading compared to yesterday and up 10%
there is a conference today which should really hype up institutional buyers with Lofty expectations since this covers 2 to 5% of an american market that nobody covers..........they can singlehandedly create the market and control 100% of it .
Risks
there might be things not liked at the conference.......
ex: why did the board member sell 1/3rd of his position <likely anser/ to diversify and limit risk> he didnt have prior knowledge of results as it would have been illegal insider trading...................this can be spun into a positive as if he did have inside info he would have been buying not selling....therefore these guys are honest people.....but will the market believe them or worry that theres something hiding?....
they need a Partner............easily found but will take a chunk out of their profits....target prices likely reduced by 25%..........consensus target prices will be more like 350 to 400......not 600 to 800........still a huge buy for anyone not scared looking down from these hights.
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my projections using my subconcious mind and instincts on all the info ive absorbed so far<charts, oppt.,fda clearance, etc.>
this stock will be at 375 to 400 shortly......could be 3 days or 2 weeks..........nice return from here....good luck.
agreed db7,,,,i'd welcome that anouncement anytime...................but so far its just opinions and sound bytes they are reporting......no real progressive news here.......just insinuation and "urging" to progress this.
Lets assume they anounce this agreement tomorrow.............without govts agreeing to sovereignty you still have nothing........the stock may be around 7 cents at that point......but the real action is the anouncement of the govts agreeing or the united states jumping in with submarines and battleships to drill this thing..............unless the usa gets american companies to drill it I dont see USA involvement in that big of a way.
I am glad to see that the chinese harassment is met with stronger words recently from america , korea and Japan.......maybe a small battle of strength is whats needed here.........china keeps calling our bluff to defend the philipines....we should raise the pot.