i personally think oil should come down 20% regardless.........america is energy independent for the first time since i was born........and thats mostly due to tapping into natural gas as well as more oil fields........
when i was paying 5 dollars a gallon for gasoline and a barrel was 150 <because george bush was buying it for our national reserves/lobby friends>, people were saying we'd see 500 a barrel oil............but instead a recession/depression gripped us and oil went to 20 dollars a barrel....<nobody drove to walmart, they stayed home......nobody drove to work, they got reduced to part time hours<less oil consumption>>.....
a fair price even from the oil companies themselves puts a barrel around 65 a barrel but speculation of war.......and rumors of the saudi govt overstating their reserves keeps the price higher.
Real Variables to consider.....
we have 8 billion people and growing every year.......most of them in china and in india.............the fasted growing energy markets and car buying markets.......big plus for oil consumption.....<even as they build solar cities>...........electric cars are still way off from making a serious impact on global consumption.
another big factor is that energy in asia..specifically natural gas is waaaaay more expensive than in america...........FEP's reserves are mostly Gas and not Oil.............although there should still be lots of oil........"LNG" what Japan wants to switch over to ever since their nuclear fiasco is also expensive.......so an lng factory and supply is badly needed there.
SO whats keeping FECOF'S price down????
China simply wont let them and the USA govt. has NOT thrown FULL Support behind the philipines drilling in their own EEZ.......in sc72..........so its a standstill....
if oil prices fell to 60 dollars a barrel this will still get done if china wasnt in the way..............its also about the philipines becoming energy independent.........they could use their earnings from MALAMPAYA the next 3 years to fund this govt drilling themselves to stay energy independent..........the worst thing a govt can do is to let their money go oversees to pay for energy.......instead of keeping the cash at home where it can get taxed exponentially as it keeps switching hands.
If a recession like 2007/2008 hits again we can definitely see oil drop to 25 dollars a barrel again,,,,,,,,,,and then the project will have a hard time finding funding ratther then it not being cost efficient.............theres more than 50 billion in those wells........drop it to 10 billion and its still worth spending 3 to 4 bil to get it done just for the reasons i mentioned before......and the eventual upside to higher prices again.
I hope this helps
