Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I call bullshit on his reply it is verbatium to the one i recieved. Canned response. Im cuttimg my position by 66% tomorrow and moving it into light oil out of kurdistan. Im fine with the rest going to zero, and if it doesnt i still have a bit of skin in the game.
You know what guys, today may have finally broke me. If some people got this info and they didnt provide a NR thats pathetic. I have a feeling there will be one tomorrow after posts on this board were forwarded to dale. Im am majorly chapped about this whole situation. What i cant explain is where tye bids are coming from, 1.5 million on the tmx site. I knowmits grasping at straws but if qhat is beng suggested is true then who would waste the 100k on all those shares? Heres to venture investing....where for the retail guy it makes taking a sh@&t easier everday lol
Yesbhe did i got the email this morning. And he confirmed quintons status. I am curious as to the reasons, dale simply said it allowed him to pursues other opportunities. He also said they will be announcing material events going forward.
Excellent rebuttal!
I will give you rafuse, I did not see the site update and do not expect a response from dale until the morning.
I am hoping that the JV negotiations are extremely tedious and as such will not be completed in a short period of time. My other angle would be any potential suitors may wait until they have confirmed their find with successful wells.(we could play what if all day)
I would be inclined t believe the freeze on trading angle because there has been no sales and no attempts to average down by anyone who have very high asset cost bases right now.
They have missed updating the slides before, I am hoping the 7and 17 is an oversight. If it is I cow,d question their attention to detail.
All other points we are in line together. This is either gonna make me a pile of cash or I will be eating a loss. I'm not getting out now, missed that boat already.
Anyone else feel free to join in, be careful though, you may learn something :p I did ;)
That's right bwldforbucks you do SEE 7%. now if you were to LISTEN to the presentation at 15:10 he CLEARLY states 17%. as for insider purchases I will be content with the explanation that insiders cannot purchase during farm in negotiations because it would violate insider trade rules because they have material knowledge. You will have to explain your comment about mr.rafuse stepping away from his responsibilities. Regarding missed timelines for the drilling...at 9:01 to 9:35 he explains the issues and I will not lay the blame at their feet. Do not mistake patience for condoning these issues, I am irritated to put it lightly. However I was in at 15 cents so I'm sitting on a small loss percentage wise.
I'm also assuming you have not read the full first energy report if you have neglected to listen to the presentation, I will provide you the link to better equip you to poke holes in my own point of view.
http://www.firstenergy.com/research/documents/Focus-C-Sonoro-2011-06-20.pdf
As I always say, if you have questions email dale, he has never let me down.
dstyner@sonoroenergy.com
As always...I welcome your rebuttal :)
Your answers are in the presentation. Management has contacted me and informed me that the audio issue was cleaned up. Insiders control 17% of shares, PP would hurt them too much. When discussing partnerships Richard uses plural, I am a believer in unconscious cues like that.
http://jetslides.tv/lobby/503
The presentation will be available in an archived version at this link for 30 days following the live presentation.
Anything is possible. I think management are very shrewd and have a couple tricks up their sleeves. From my conversations I believe a farm in is probable, which will (in addition to the twenty million we stand to make from warrants in January) cover the costs of an EXTENSIVE drill program in the spring. This I hope will lead to project based debt financing related to the last requirement of our liscence....the topping facility. if all this comes to pass...we'd probably still make money if we showed up at 40 cents.
I expect a big jump on the announcement of a farm in partner, the actual spuding of the wells, the results and the announcement of the spring drill campaign. I can't be certain of the timing of the drill campaign though.
Anything is possible. I think management are very shrewd and have a couple tricks up their sleeves. From my conversations I believe a farm in is probable, which will (in addition to the twenty million we stand to make from warrants in January) cover the costs of an EXTENSIVE drill program in the spring. This I hope will lead to project based debt financing related to the last requirement of our liscence....the topping facility. if all this comes to pass...we'd probably still make money if we showed up at 40 cents.
I expect a big jump on the announcement of a farm in partner, the actual spuding of the wells, the results and the announcement of the spring drill campaign. I can't be certain of the timing of the drill campaign though.
We must lease the land our access roads and bridges are on. We have a contract to explore and develop the area relating to heavy oil. But we do not "own" any of the land, and thus must "lease" the land we wish to alter.
Hey bwldforbucks1
I have also been doing some research regarding the pipelines and ha e come up with several thoughts. 1) one of our directors (owner of the bin jallah group) is in the process of constructing a seamless pipe factory specifically for pipeline construction. This could work in our favour in the sense that we would have a contact with the people actually building the pipelines, and perhaps leverage that relationship to gain access to said pipelines. Furthermore, I encourage you to check out their website where it lists their resources....they have several asphalt plants and I am assuming access to to trucks for shipping that may be able to purchase what these local entrepreneurs cannot (assuming there is any surplus) that said, the idea proposed by MHT is a novel one to me that had not crossed my mind, the only thing I would be concerned about is how much the discount must be to make it economical for these guys to ship it to the existing refineries. 2) if you would like a good map of the existing and proposed pipelines there is a great diagram in the most recent westernzagros presentation (they operate in kurdistan - pg 7). I agree the cost recovery factor is huge and the province has been extremely generous in this regard. One question I would openly ask for everyone to comment on is "does production from one or all wells constitute commercialization and require berkely to ante up their 30 percent that sonoro has been carrying them thus far or is the topping facility the development that triggers this - either way I will be asking dale the next time we speak.
JV wise, I am hoping that they start optioning off the "blue fairway" which is is in the top left area of the map and seems to me to have the least ammount of sesmic done. This would be a good opportunity to build upside, expplore more areas that we would typically not have the resources for (and potentially develop) and put us in a position to raise funds in a non-dilutive fashion. ( I believe this will be the trend going forward because of the large equity positions held by the management of this company) Furthermore, this will allow us to concentrate on the Jeribe formation and that middle fairway that seems to be completely seismic mapped. I would also submit to the board for evaluation the speculation that once Sonoro really gets rolling it will have the cash, contacts, and infrastructure in place to make a very compelling argument that they will be able to capitalize and exercise their preferential rights to develop the lighter oil I PERSONALLY believe is present at larger depths.
I agree with everyone regarding the civil contracts and their current status, but I am hoping our contacts with the bin jallah group will help us out there, the only question there is will they try to build goodwill by hiring smaller local construction companies? In addition, I am hoping that given the terrain it would not be difficult to build a 4km dirt road to the sites (excuse my ignorance if I am incorrect). Lastly, I am kinda hoping that they will have settled the simple civil contracts earlier in the month and just did not announce it because they were waiting to do it all together with the drilling contracts ( my rationale here is that the resource upgrade was dated July 1 and they sat on it for 25 days...which actually kinda pissed me off to be honest.
In any case these are my opinions and my hopeful speculation. I look forward to the fall campaign and everyone else's thoughts.
jw
Hey Guys,
I've been thinking quite a bit about Sonoro lately, and although I am no MHT, I will certainly offer my opinions. I have watched the presentation with Richard over and over again and feel there are some instances where his facial expressions betray him, there are several instances where he tries in vain to conceal a smile and ends up squinting and smirking which i found both hilarious and encouraging because i feel there is more upside than he is letting on and he knows it.
Anyways, down to the facts. Currently Sonoro has warrants that will expire in January 2012 worth approximately 20 million dollars, this does not include stock options which the management of this company seem quite comfortable to exercise so far. I firmly believe that all of the warrants will be exercised which SHOULD mitigate the need for any excessive financing. Because the management of this company is so heavily invested equity wise in the company I believe that all the major players have built their positions and as richard eluded in the interview, project financing or reserve based financing will be options going forward. Furthermore, I was reading some articles at www.heavyoilinfo.com to try and get a better understanding or the economics and development time lines of these types of projects (nothing can substitute your own DD)and came across EPF (Early Production Facility) which are modular, and be added upon, and can be LEASED. So if each well is producing the predicted 500 bop/d and we get are predicted netback of $19.71 then we are making roughly $30,000 a day AFTER taxes which should cover lease payments until we grow the operation. Furthermore, this is an open question because I'm really reaching and thinking out loud..BUT..if we do put these wells into production in Q3, does that constitute commercialization and fulfill our obligation to carry Berkley? In which case they will have to start paying their fair 30% for our continued operations?
To address the time lines and the perceived tardiness of the drilling contacts I admit, I too was once frustrated, now, after READING about the process of field development, well drilling and the associated complications that can occur I am much more comfortable with our current pace. We must remember that we are drilling a bore hole into essentially muck...now if this muck is heated due to friction it becomes less like muck and more like liquid which can compromise the integrity of the borehole which is why they (as MHT eluded to) will be taking their sweet time drilling, changing bits and ensuring integrity is kept intact because if they screw up these wells this stock will be taken to the woodshed BIG TIME. Second issue they may encounter and for some reason seems overlooked....Sand...yes we are basically pumping sand and its a bit more complicated than pumping water. So we have to be very careful on how these wells are designed. Unfortunately we cannot use any SAGD type recovery methods and as stated in the presentation will be using straight water. Perhaps in time they will consider solvents but I believe starting off they need to maximize the economics so they don't run the risk of disappointing the market on the economics of the project.
I think 2012 will be our year, they will be testing all three "play fairways" as they call them, and what interests me is the big green zone in the middle with 18-22 API and more seismic data then we can shake a stick at. I feel that once Sonoro really gets rolling they will simply drill deeper to the lighter oil we all know is present in Iraq and really blow up, but im sure that is many years out.
I am interested in anyone's opinion regarding share price. In comparison BNK is currently producing 13,000 bop/d in Albania with similar API characteristics and although recently have been brutalized in the markets due to missed targets and under performing wells for a variety of reasons is currently valued at 6 dollars, and as much as the high end of 9 dollars in march before technical issues. They have similar shares outstanding, is it possible one can assume a 3 to 4 dollar price target with 5000 bop/d production in Iraq in conjunction with exploration targets? (I believe BNK is tapped out exploration wise)
Lastly, and this goes back to the financing end of things, if you look at our recent additions to the the board, i think its possible given our banking connections we could have project facility financing for our topping facility, and farm out for royalties some of what I would hope, our less prospective areas and keep the best ones to ourselves!
As always, feel free to punch holes and disagree, its the exercise that counts!
PS. given today (july 11) volume, I think the contracts will be awarded tomorrow (july 12) or wednesday at the latest.
PPS. Does anyone have access to the trading data for today, someone picked up 398k shares at 1130ish in one shot bumping us to .24 cents, usually I'd check the tmx data but didnt notice until i got home from work and it didnt go back that far.
jw
Iraq
Ok, I just want to point out to everyone that we are REQUIRED as a term in our Iraq agreement that we have ATLEAST a 1,000bpd topping facility by October 14 2012. If the supply agreement does not materialize which I am hoping it does... “With the planned drilling of first wells in the third quarter of 2011, and the successful discovery of commercial heavy oil, a supply agreement may not be required for the Company to proceed with a topping facility. The Company is also reviewing alternatives in relation to the financing, building and operation of topping facilities with third parties so that it may focus on the exploration, extraction and development of the prospective resources identified.
Why do I believe the supply agreement will go forward? Jobs, Jobs, Jobs, It fits with Iraq’s goal of increasing oil production and refining capabilities, and lastly, it fits with the required timeline. The latest we can expect a go/no go from the province would be august/September because then Sonoro would not be able to setup with the remaining time in the agreement. Furthermore, when we were given the green light - the Company has now received an investment permit from the provincial governorate of Salah ad Din allowing the Company to proceed with its asphalt (heavy oil) project. This permit allows Sonoro to immediately commence operations and allows for the importation of necessary equipment and personnel. If we have already been approached by full service drilling companies, who or what do we now have permission to
import?
What I am disappointed about is found buried at the very bottom of the document - the Company has identified three additional distinct prospects in different areas of the 20 province for which it plans to acquire additional data and potentially explore through the drilling of additional exploration wells in 2012. I was hoping these would be drilled Q4 at the latest.
Albania
The first thing that jumped out at me was the major reduction in our JV partner’s share of the venture. It was announced Feb 4 2010 as a 60/40 Sonoro/Private Venture. http://tmx.quotemedia.com/article.php?newsid=28203992&qm_symbol=SNV:CA
It is now a 83.33/16.67 Sonoro/Private Joint venture due to the lack of participation by our JV partner. In my earlier post I considred that there may have been bad blood over money or equipment upgrading issues on the private company’s part and i take the following quote found in the MD&A as legitimizing that comment.
“it has not contributed additional sourced equipment from abroad in satisfaction of its $1 million equity investment commitment under the joint venture. The Company incurred capital costs for certain additional equipment of approximately $270,000 in 2010 and is working with the joint venture partner to advance finance activities of the joint venture.”
On the positive side we have established the results of the process: The de-asphalting process applied to test samples in Albania resulted in API oil gravity increases from approximately 10°API to 16°API, with reductions in viscosity, sulphur and heavy metals
However, as stated in the MD&A there have been some political changes in Albania which may be working against this JV in its current form. The requirement to become a registered refinery in order to buy and sell in local markets and the additional excise taxes on the diluents make the JV unattractive unless they can find a different diluents – which is being actively pursued. BUT I agree with several other posters when they suggest that this makes a fee for use refining model VERY attractive if it is with a local producer. The major speculation with this business model is can they partner with BNK? The only flaw, and it may a fatal one...is that BNK is a CANADIAN company. However, as Richard said in the article (http://albertaventure.com/2011/04/technology-takes-over-the-oil-and-gas-industry/) - He says that Albania has no pipeline network and no refineries of its own, which means Sonoro’s technology will be a major asset for heavy-oil producers in that country by increasing the quality of the oil before it goes to a refinery.
Other
Unfortunately we are not getting paid by the purchaser or our soil remediation technologies and are currently considering legal action for the 1.2 million we are owed. Furthermore, I now consider the SonoAsh project to be a dead issue for all intents and purposes even though it produced VERY impressive results. The company’s statement :
The Company is actively seeking a commercial demonstration project at a coal-fired power plant with a potential partner and is evaluating strategic alternatives for the further development of its SonoAsh technology and related intellectual property
This is just my opinion but I really believe unrestricted shares will be sold, ands I was hoping they could be sold into strength with a news release as opposed to the weakness we have witnessed recently. However, I was encouraged by big blocks being picked up by UBS, RBC, and First Energy Capital (involved in lastest financing - I believe that's the name, again I'm on my BB so I have to go from memory, no multi browser screen :( ) I suppose that someone had to sell in big blocks tho. Speaking to that article...it is the only reason I haven't completely written off the tech yet, I was encouraged by the comment on scalability and the comments albania and lack refining capabilities which led me to believe on the viability of the albania project. I'm honestly hoping they put it the backburner because their JV partner didn't want to pay for the required improvements to the power distrabution or generation upgrades and sonoro didn't want to burn the precious cash that was alotted for Iraq which will long term have the better payout. The differences in the two presentations are few, they eluded to another JV or provincial agreement (I would be concerned about being spread too thin in this instance) the comment on the well which apparently is overpressured which I assume is better than under pressured. And a general road map for the next 6 months...supply agreement, drilling contracting, actual drilling and some seismic mapping. Unfortunately, it looks like we will have to wait for quarterlies where we got our last update on the fly ash project, albania and I'm hoping this time something from shell. I'm hoping they release it thursday (MD&A) and supply contract easter monday. (Or maybe albania will rise easter monday lol) Thanks for the discussion guys! Happy weekend and go canucks!!
I can't take credit for the find buy I thought I'd copy paste in good faith lol
Great read, mentions our technology which is being ramped up for albania, canada & Iraq :
A single sonicator is the size of a van and “kind of looks like an hour glass on its side,” Arato says. The machine has a large steel bar through the middle and no moving parts when activated. “We put an electromagnetic force around the bar so that it vibrates,” Arato explains. “What we’re doing allows us to shake the hell out of anything that we want very, very quickly.”
“Think about Texas or Saudi Arabia. Both of those places are sitting on balloons; you stick a straw in the ground, suck [oil] out and it’s perfect. The stuff in Alberta isn’t,” says Claudio Arato, Sonoro’s director of engineering and technology. The company operates in Alberta, Albania and Iraq, where oil is heavier and has higher metal and sulphur content than Texas or Saudi Arabia.
That’s where Sonoro claims an advantage. The company has developed a sonicator that removes the contaminating asphaltenes from heavy oil using sonic energy. The process lowers the density of heavy oil and thereby increases the quality of the product by as much as 10 per cent. A single sonicator is the size of a van and “kind of looks like an hour glass on its side,” Arato says. The machine has a large steel bar through the middle and no moving parts when activated. “We put an electromagnetic force around the bar so that it vibrates,” Arato explains. “What we’re doing allows us to shake the hell out of anything that we want very, very quickly.”
The sonicators let oil producers scale their production easily. “We can start at 5,000 barrels per day, go to 10,000, to 25,000 – or you can go from one to 10 directly,” Arato says. The machines are modular and can be stacked on top of one another or side by side.
“If you’re selling that de-asphalted oil into a refinery, depending on what kind of refinery, you can also see an improvement in the price you get,” says Sonoro president and CEO Richard Wadsworth. Before joining Sonoro, Wadsworth was head of Calgary-based Bankers Petroleum, where he extracted heavy oil in Albania. He says that Albania has no pipeline network and no refineries of its own, which means Sonoro’s technology will be a major asset for heavy-oil producers in that country by increasing the quality of the oil before it goes to a refinery.
Sonoro has also won exclusive rights for exploration, development and production of asphalt in a 24,000-square-kilometre area in the Salah ad Din Governate in Iraq, which Wadsworth describes as “one of the largest potential growth markets in the world.”
I also completely agree with you guys. I emailed the company at the beginning of te week and have yet to receive a response. Usually they atleast tell me to call them to talk, nobody ever wants to put things on paper lol. I am concerned about the major deterioration in the SP this week, there have been several large iceberg orders that keep this in the 30-31 cent range and it was an absolute heart breaker that we blew out the 30 cent support today with 6000 shares being traded at 3:59. There are a few bright spots however, on stockhouse there was an article that was written the first of april re: the sonic process and they said it was scaleable and commercially viable - spoken by their director of engineering. I would copy bpaste a quote but I'm on my phone and can't have two windows open. Google alberta and sonoro it will come up, or check out stockhouse. Secondly, I'm assuming it will be Easter monday that 20 million shares become free trading b/c good friday (the 22) markets are closed - from the dec financing. My point being I would release news close to the release date to blunt the anticipated selling pressure. Furthermore, Q1 and year end SHOULD be released by the end of the month. HOWEVER, the lack of news is shitty, and I'm not sure the old adage no news is good news applies here. I'm hoping that we get a supply contract agreement next week and the contracting of the drilling co the following week of vice versa. I am also hoping we get a surprise agreement with another province or company as covered in our agreement with Berkley. And most importantly, I'm hoping we hit both heavy and. "Convential" oil in which we will receive "preferential" treatment and make a big splash! Lastly, I'm hoping on a dream we get a surprise announcement of a partnership with Banker's courtesy of Richard for upgrading...the article on the first gives me my hope. Before I leave, I ask all of you, please, respond lol. I like hearing other's thoughts on this stock and these boards are so dead lol. I miss MHT lol. Take care guys!
Jw
MHT,
I have been reading this board for a long time, your response earlier this evening has compelled me to join this forum in order to respond. I have reviewed the links that you included in your analysis on our mutual interest Sonoro. You raise several valid points and I would like nothing more than to see your predictions come to pass. One of the few things I am concerned about is article 13 in the private investment legislation:
"The investing company is committed to provide by its own means the entire requirements for electrical power, utilities and all other supporting facilities of the project"
Unfortunately for me in this instance, I am only a finance grad and nothing close to an engineer, I would never speculate on your profession but given the technical responses you provide I was hoping you could speculate on the power requirements required to run the diesel/kerosene topping facility? I have tried simplistic searches on the internet but nothing I have found has given me any idea of the requirements, or the costs associated with providing said power.
You noted who is the current Minister of Energy, the only connection I could make is that he had fled to Canada after escaping imprisonment. To me this would only suggest he may be receptive to a Canadian company.
Lastly, can you shed any light on how much debt financing Richard may be able to arrange given the current situation of Sonoro, I'm assuming it would depend more on the values of the contracts that have yet to be secured so I don't expect anything more than pure speculation, but sometimes even the exercise of speculation can be of benefit to the greater understanding! Thanks in advance!