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$5.41 close? Someone has a sense of humor.
Finally someone has seen the light. It's an historic day for the company IMO. Finally someone with deep pockets has stated exactly what we've been complaining about for years. Time to get the resume' buttoned up, Lytle!
I can tell you Cotara isn't delivered using a single catheter...you can take that to the bank...or more appropriately the poor house.
I'll try. Today's candlestick pattern is called a falling knife. It happens when a company that continues to dilute it's shareholders via the ATM says they're going to try really hard to not get delisted but knows they will be anyway. Then, the shorts in the know pump the stock up to .77 knowing that every penny above .50 they short will be profit to them because the reverse split is probably already determined at a certain price point. Quite the ruse. All IMO.
If the company wanted to do everything in their power to fight a reverse split, they wouldn't have sold 10s of millions of shares under .77. How can you believe they really care when they dilute at those prices?
Did you mean 10k shares of PPHM would make someone rich as the shares stand now or after a reverse split?
Ronin could have purchased this position years ago for many reasons, including as a hedge for another institution that was shorting. Assuming there was a CT order in place, it may have just been denied a renewal. There has still been no explanation why all those shares traded in February-March 2014 as the company assisted by stringing together a series of PR events (remember there were something like 7 press releases in a matter of days) only to have the stock beaten down 60% in a month or 2. And that was the last time CP told us that "the big move" was coming. Is it just a coincidence that this move is starting the exact same time of year?
In the long run, I think the diagnostic market is a cheaper, more accessible way to commercialize the IP. And in the back of my mind I've always thought the way Theranos was taken out of the picture felt just as dirty as Fargo.
Ultimately, I see another head fake, more shorting and the same shenanigans that have always existed with this stock. Wall St. likes round numbers so .50 for the RS is my guess. And 1 for 7 will keep the PPS under $5 so most retail accounts won't be able to short it.
There are tangible, real indicators that have never lied with this stock. They point to massive shorting about to happen and downward PPS. Maybe, for the first time ever, they will be wrong. I guess there's a first for everything. Remember Fargo.
There are very strong indicators that suggest you may be right. And usually when the euphoria on this message board sits around its current level, bad things tend to happen. Sure would be nice to give the longs a little something, but history strongly suggests otherwise. All IMO.
If evil shorts were in charge of PPHM...
...I bet they'd run it up as close to a buck as they could with volume right before the reverse split deadline getting the longs' hopes up that great news will be announced to save the company from the dreaded RS. And then they'd put the hammer down in a Friday AH PR. That way, they'll have a lot more room to play with on the way down after a RS vs. sitting at .54.
Then again, CP says longs will be gazillionaires and that this is THE BIG MOVE...so I guess the shorts scenario is completely out of the question.
Remember Fargo,
EBS
I'll be happy for you guys. I've moved on and am doing very well in other areas. But how will you feel if they announce something like a reverse split after hours?
No, I don't own any shares. I'm in recovery. Feels great. I read the PRs and glance at the board once every couple of months. It's pretty remarkable how many people are saying the same things here that they were 5 years ago...albeit at a much lower price point. I used to be that guy. Life is much better now without PPHM. It's like a bad drug which is ironic because that's what it turns out they make here anyway. I hope for you nice old timers the company actually does something of value soon. I was thinking about relapsing back at the .28 zone but I decided against it considering they were selling ATM shares in this range over the past few months. All IMO.
I agree that the stock price will be testing new lows shortly due to ATM usage. But if the company were to really pursue this path it would be a much quicker and less expensive way to get PS-targeting tech to market than all of the treatment trials that require waiting for endpoints like OS and MOS. A trial for a diagnostic that only requires a blood test could be fully enrolled in weeks with the right partner IMO.
It's really just a matter of whether or not the company wants to move it forward and will consider a realistic deal. They've never been able to monetize any drug so the smart money is against them.
Personally, I doubt we'll ever hear about this again just like Ebola, HIV, etc, etc.. All IMO.
Thank you. eom
Ok, assuming that is not an option and the other shareholders don't have that type of liquidity, what type of fund is best suited to make a mid 8 figure investment in a private company in the healthcare industry, keeping in mind it's a negotiable transaction as there is no market for the shares. All hypothetical of course.
Hypothetical question for the Dew and the board...
If you owned 10% of a privately held healthcare company with no debt, 9 figure annual revenue but no immediate plans of going public, where would you go to find a buyer if you wanted to diversify and sell half of your position? TIA
You should go to the shareholder meetings. You wouldn't believe how different a feel you get there as opposed to reading this message board. That PEARL you keep bragging about...none of the management team are nearly as passionate about it as half of this board. It was the turning point for me. Good luck to you.
Monday will be a non-event IMO. Even with some promising subset biomarker data, it doesn't move the needle. We had a stat. sig. phase 2 and SUNRISE failed. So, now a stat. sig. biomarker arrives and it will still need to be tested...years out and millions later there might be something. But not Monday. For any other company, I'd say promising data might yield a money partnership. But for PPHM, they just don't have a desire to partner IMO. ASCO 2018?
At the very least, I hope they stop selling shares via the ATM. That would be a good start.
Has the Class Action been dismissed for good yet? TIA
EB, maybe you misinterpreted what I meant.
When I refer to a biomarker sub-population of patients, I mean that not every patient in SUNRISE had the biomarker referenced that showed a stat. sig. survival benefit. We know that for a fact because the trial failed, as a whole, to prove as much. That is also a fact. So, by definition, we are looking at a sampling smaller than the whole population of patients in SUNRISE...or, as I said, a sub-population of patients within SUNRISE that had the aforementioned biomarker...whatever it may be.
That could still be a nice percentage of the pie if the biomarker is a proven one, easy to test for, and one found in many people with the disease. Maybe a partnership with the company who makes the companion diagnostic would make a nice fit. But based on the entire trial failing, it's probably not a very substantial number of patients who have the biomarker IMO. Again, more ambiguity by our favorite PR department.
So, we are looking at a sliver of a market worth an estimated $1B a year in 2nd line NSCLC. Maybe it will work well in other indications, too. That would be great for patients. I only have a few shares these days, but the itch is coming back.
I read the PR about the stat. sig. survival benefit in a biomarker subpopulation in SUNRISE. What's your take? I mean...if you give me any trial with 600 people and all of the biomarkers associated with every patient, I could probably comb through them and create a statistically significant survival benefit in something and attribute it to the drug. The problem with doing it that way is that it's really hard to determine if bavi had anything to do with it or if was simply random. I'm guessing it's probably good for a day trade, but the company will most likely sell into any pop as they always do. What's the share count these days? TIA
Downward. eom.
Bio,
I currently have a very small position in PPHM. My current belief is that the stock is going to get blown up sometime very soon. Best of luck, buddy. All IMO.
If I were a betting man, I'd wager there will be some PR this week that sends the stock higher. That way the 15 million shares (more traded than on the SUNRISE failure PR) that were bought by those in the know can be dumped on the retail suckers who will be "believers" when whatever magical early phase data they announce comes across the wire. Round and round we go...
All IMO
OT: Random Hypothetical Options Scenario, not pertaining to PPHM.
If you want to think really outside the box about recurring options grants for companies down 99% over 30 years, you could entertain the idea that the new options are a continuous hedge against an ongoing multi-year short position held by a complicit party, perhaps someone offshore or in the brokerage industry.
For this theory to make sense, you'd have to keep the inner circle tight and have every member working together to run the company with ambiguity and the knowledge that you have the ability to dilute the share price ad infinitum and authorize more shares as needed to keep the party going.
Keep it small enough that it's under the radar, but large enough that over 30 years you could make tens of millions.
Nah, that's probably crazy...
And I hope those types of comments confirm what I've been saying for some time. Zero credibility and some type of nefarious plot to keep people buying shares. All IMO.
Hey CP...2 questions:
What is a realistic timeline for a PPHM investor to expect a return on investment? I'm going on 15 years and I'm down about 98%.
How many shares do you believe will be outstanding when that investment objective is met?
I generally agree with you Sunstar, but Bavi working and PPHM being a good investment need to be separated into different issues at this point in time considering how much dilution (without a money partnership) will be needed to continue to develop the best IO combinations with Bavi...a sad reality of what corporate sabotage can do to a tiny biotech.
Avid under this management is not worth $1 today. It should be, but it's not. The market is pricing in the additional dilution that will be inevitable until the management team considers some type of non-dilutive alternative financing. The share price reflects the projected dilution IMO. In 2012, one of the only reasons the share price went up the way it did was because the company stated there would be no further dilution. That is not the case today, nor will it be for the foreseeable future IMO.
You will never see the full SUNRISE data. Mark my words.
Retracement is going to be an understatement. Something not feeling right about this IMO.
Not exactly the best leading indicator in the past:
http://stocktwits.com/ospreyeye/message/48898778
I can think of a few reasons for announcing this today and none of them bode well for the retail shareholders. How many times have we seen a "pump" and the new names coming out of the woodwork posting about breakouts, etc. I have a very bad feeling about all of this. JMHO
You forgot the best part...
Employee stock plan price for the next 6 months get set about this time of year...and a 15% discount on top of that. Max out your ability on a .25 stock purchase and sell the company for $4...not bad.
I tend to agree with you here. The pie in the sky projections crowd should now be back to Earth and start discussing realistic partnering numbers. Assuming anyone still wants to partner, PPHM is now an early stage biotech with an interesting molecule and a solid manufacturing facility. Phase I or II interim combo data (melanoma?) could be a catalyst, but the numbers will be realistic now. There is no phase 3. There is no "Microsoft" of anything. And this would allow a company willing to partner to control the ultimate regulatory path that fits their pipeline track in combination with bavi. The best part? The company gets the stock back to $3 and they look like heroes.
I need your help.
How can we find out if Paraxel/Perceptive Informatics was responsible for blinding this trial?
Considering the "issues" that happened in 2012, we know that potential issues can arise when labeling the treatment and control arms, right? What if the same tactic was used in this trial? Swap placebo with bavi and bavi with placebo? After all, considering 2012 there's "no way" someone would do it again, right? Like the author who writes about killing his lover the same way that his/her death actually occurs and tells the police, "You think I'd be stupid enough to write about it and then actually do it?"
I mean, the safety profile is well defined and even to the most ardent detractors say the drug is a placebo. So, it is very interesting that a placebo arm could perform so "dramatically" different.
This chart can show you exactly how hard it is to believe that a chemo arm could deviate so much as to require a trial stoppage in 2nd line NSCLC.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=84744123
If Paraxel was involved, the whole trial was rigged IMO.
I was thinking the same thing. How in the world does a pivotal phase 3 trial halt only generate 1/4 the volume a random day in March does? There are a lot of people still with shares and a lot of shorts who have not covered IMO after today. The light volume makes very little sense to me unless some big money expects another leg down or a quick reversal for some reason.
I wonder if we'll ever see the full data set that caused the interim halt.