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If they can maintain growth in EARNINGS and EPS, with a forecast for more to come, the negative 0.092 P/E ratio should put a lot of pressure on the stock for a run to the upside. Maybe even taking the P/E into the positive multiples.
IMO!
We need continued EARNINGS and EPS GROWTH and keep the O/S LOW.
P/E ratio, I'm getting negative 0.092 from the 9 months earnings of $12,470,864 divided into 16,401,763 shares for a .76 EPS. Current market price of .07 divided by the .76 EPS = 0.092
So compared to the past years EARNINGS has taken a sharp reversal to the upside in 2011 while PRICE has not yet followed and still holds a negative P/E of 0.092
We need to watch where EARNINGS heads and monitor the P/E ratio.
2008 (47,976,000)
2009 (19,731,000)
2010 (12,140,000)
2011 9 months $12,470,864
*The curve has turned to the upside while price is still negative at .07 below Earnings of .76 for a P/E of 0.092
We should hope for Earnings to continue to rise and see how long the price will remain depressed.
Earnings, EPS and Price, the Market Price are magnetic and follow either positive or negative or at 0, equal.
Yes the P/E ratio almighty magnetic.
My opinions only.
Answer to your second question is no. I think this is a turnaround play here and there will be a lag time before the market responds and reprices the stock in this case to the upside. First the company must financially turnaround and begin to grow again in net worth. When this is significant enough and the projected outlook is positive for more, I think the market will notice it's progress has created quite a value gap between it's financial status and the pricing / value of it's stock. Then when it's undeniable that the stock is severely underpriced compared to the corporate value, then I think we might see a market price correction.
I am referring to the growing strength of the companies financial status. Quarterly and Yearly Net Gains that continue to grow quarterly and yearly, Growing Assets vs. Declining Liabilities, Growth in Revenues, Earnings, Growth in Earnings, EPS growth, Cash on hand, Debt Reduction, Positive Shareholder Equity, Positive Book Value, Positive Projected Earnings Outlook, Strong Bottom Line, etc...
All that should displace dilution for funding! So I think the market will trade and price the stock according to it's percieved valuation of the corporate worth. The stock was down because of the companies financial decline, now in a turnaround the turn must be made and clearly defined then progressed to a point where we can confidently see it is indeed a turnaround and on a growth run. Once the company has run far enough from the stock price with no signs of turning around, then I think the market will have reason for a price correction to the upside, like the classic price follows earnings curve.
My opinions only
My first reply was to the first question. The second I have not yet gotten to.
Or I think when they think the waters safe and won't sink or drown from dilution and reverse splits that they'll wait for the tide to start coming up and then maybe just then might start jumping in.
Were looking for rising revenues, earnings to displace dilution as the source of funding.
The market will bid, trade and price the stock according to their consensus sentiment on the corporate value.
Just ye old basics, rendering a corporate valuation, intrinsic valuation and determining whether the stock is overpriced or underpriced based on where the company is now and where it's headed.
I believe GreenShift installed systems using Alfa Laval equipment at Method 1 optimized can yield up to 4% extraction. ICM, equip had lower performance, although licensed by GreenShift, who then optimzed. Fluctuating market price of crude corn oil, $2.80 lb. as of the 3rd Qtr 10q, GreenShift has about 2.1 bgpy licensed. Ramping up, ramping up.......GERS 20%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
DHole, that sounds about right to me. OOOMMM!
This message will self destruct in 10 seconds. Lol!
Extracting at 3% from 2.1 bgpy should yield a maximum of 63 million gallons corn oil per year. That's maximum. How far they ramp up will remain to be seen. But 63 x $2.80 = $176.4 if which 20% goes to GreenShift as royalties. $35,280,000. That's not including equipment sales, etc... Just royalties.
However the cost of corn oil can fluctuate as can the % of extraction, as GreenShifts Alfa Laval equip is supposed to produce superior results at 4% + and 6% with method 2 as with Calgren.
Thanks for posting to further the topic.
20% per gallon a licensee sells at the then current market price for crude corn oil. Last I heard Crude corn oil was $2.80 per gallon.
Could be what we saw in Qtr 3 COGS was GPRE Otter Tail, Marquis WI, Andersons Clymers, and ABE NE.
Here's a great Slashnut's post listing licensees's. Thank's to Slash and all posters who contribute so much to the knowledge database. Being able to go back and reference this type of info is like gold. Thanks!
"Greenshift's Licensee
Green Plains Renewable Energy Bluffton, IN 115.0 (Online)
Green Plains Renewable Energy Lakota, IA 110.0 (Online)
Green Plains Renewable Energy Shenandoah, IA 65.0 (Online)
Green Plains Renewable Energy Superior, IA 55.0 (Online)
Green Plains Renewable Energy Riga, MI 57.0 (Online)
Green Plains Renewable Energy Central City, NE 110.0 (Online)
Green Plains Renewable Energy Ord, NE 50.0 (Online)
Green Plains Renewable Energy Obion, TN 115.0 (Online)
Green Plains Renewable Energy Fergus Falls, MN 60 (online)
Sunoco Volney, NY, 114.0 (online)
Marquis Energy, LLC Hennepin, IL 140.0 (Online), planned expansion to 280mgy
Marquis Energy Wisconsin, LLC Necedah, WI 50.0 (Online)
The Andersons Albion Ethanol LLC Albion, MI 55.0 (Online)
The Andersons Clymers Ethanol, LLC Clymers, IN 110.0 (online)
The Andersons Marathon Ohio, 110.0 (under construction) ???
United Ethanol Milton, WI 52.0 (Online)
Utica Energy, LLC Oshkosh, WI 48.0 (Online)
Corn, LP Goldfield, IA 60.0 (Online)
Western New York Energy, LLC Shelby, NY
50.0 (Online)
Calgren Renewable Fuels, LLC Pixley, CA 60.0 (Online)
Center Ethanol Company Sauget, IL 55.0 (Online)
Central Indiana Ethanol, LLC Marion, IN 40.0 (Online)
Advanced BioEnergy Fairmont, NE 110.0 (online)
BioFuel Energy Woodriver, NE 115.0 (under construction)
Biofuel Energy Fairmont, MN 115 (under construction)
Plus many more TBA..."
* Highlighted in read means installed and started up somewhere in the 3rd or 4th quarters of 2011.
If in the 3rd qtr the cost to COGS should have already passed, been in the 3rd qtr COGS.
So the rest should have passed initial startup costs and be operating on a high profit margin for GreenShift, mostly just collecting royalties.
Meaning once licensees pass initial startup and production, royalties will ramp up and we will see more REVENUE and EARNINGS as COGS declines. As the clock ticks the stream grows stonger and stronger!
This Slashnuts list is a good reference point.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=66989341
If we could just redo it a bit to precisely update it with install, startup date's, install and equipment provider's to get a better idea of what's going into GreenShift's quarterly COGS.
This is important because COGS is taking the biggest piece of the revenue pie, SGA is much smaller and is where legal costs are. Once COGS come down were are going to see a rise in PROFIT MARGIN and EARNINGS! Meaning once licensees pass initial startup and production royalties ramp up we will see more REVENUE and EARNINGS. This has already been happening and is in motion, quarters 4 and 1 are expected to be more than quarter 3 of 2011. Earnings are always applied to EPS for valuation.
For these COGS #'s we need to create a list of each and every licensee with each plant and how many COES they have there and when, how, and from who the equipment was installed. I believe the majority have been installed, started production and passed initial startup phase. But a list needs to be created to be more precise so we can know more. For example Sunoco, operational already right?
I believe they licensed with GreenShift and also went with GreenShift for equipment and install, etc.. the whole deal there. So they paid GShift for the whole deal, which should have covered the COGS for the project at a profit. So if COGS to GreenShift for Sunoco were X amount, Sunoco's bill for equip., install, etc... should have been more than X amount.
Anyway's we need a list of the licensees and their startup times and costs. I will try, Skunk and Slash have been very good at that, would probably need to reference old Slashnuts, Skunk, other's, etc.. posts to gather info. Or if someone else could create the list, or create numerous lists for comparison, the info would be of great benefit to us here.
GreenShift has not yet PR'd a deal with BIOF, yet we know from BIOF that they licensed with GreenShift and have obtained financing for their equipment and install, although I don't quite know for sure who they're getting the equipment and install from.
Repeat as Mantra. Om!
Revenue replacing Dilution as source of Funding. Om!
Rising Revenues yielding Earnings and Debt Reduction. Om!
Repeat as Mantra
Rising revenues yielding earnings and debt reduction.
Revenue replacing dilution as source of funding.
4th Qtr revenue estimate? Earnings?
IMO! 2011 net gain when including YA corn oil transaction and bonuses!
There is reading and there is comprehension, but hey who's perfect?
I wasn't talking about pps, I was just asking for Qtr 4 revenue estimates and I get all this other ?%*#?
Maybe Skunk will poll again.
Post # 23187
Qtr 4 income estimate? Simple question. You divert off topic. Simple yay or nay.
I was not asking about all that other stuff.
No idea? Not even a estimate for such a knowledgeable long?
If ICM and the infringers worked with GreenShift the legal way we would probably have 3 to 4 bgpy licensed by now. Dilution and splits were needed due to past lack of revenue, earnings to keep the company in business.
Estimate Qtr 4 revenues? You skipped my question with all that other stuff you typed.
What's your estimate for qtr 4 revenues?
Well you must know that even without a news pr revenues are surging in as producers continue to ramp up.
And as debt is paid down and assets, assets like cash on hand increase the value of the equity increases.
I think what it comes down to is increasing revenues and earnings.
This will provide the means to pay costs of operations and debt, without diluting. Mo' money, no problems! Bills paid, debt paid!
2011 Net Gain! That's my call, it's nearly a guaranty, already won.
In my opinion! Indeed a breakthru, how many years of straight losses?
I think 98' was the last year they finished with a gain.
Of course I am factoring in the YA corn oil transaction and bonuses.
They are gains by transactions of assets of value.
I have no doubt the main income stream, business of COES and the royalties derived of will be highly profitable as all pass start up phase and continue to ramp up.
Surely if Qtr 4 then Qtr 1 yield revenues up into the $8 to $10 million per Qtr range, that's up to $40,000,000 per year in 2012. And think how many more we will license in 2012? With that kind of positive impact surely another big chunk of the debt will be cleared if not all, and if not all that kind of positivity should easily yield new financing agreements. Clearly the company is growing and thriving, the debt will not be a problem.
In my opinion and as KK has told us.
" Our costs of sales and operating expenses moving forward will be primarily comprised of (1) technology royalties; (2) employee costs; (3) travel, materials and other expenses incidental to execution of our license support services; (4) general and administrative costs relating to our offices, utilities and insurance; and (5), professional fees relating to accounting, corporate and litigation activities. As discussed above, we expect that the license agreements we have executed to date will provide sufficient revenue to more than cover all of these costs on an ongoing basis."
I know that's the sweet part.
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=8257152-1042-183344&type=sect&dcn=0001269127-11-000080
But just think with licensees and revenues continuing to ramp up combined with a post start up high profit margin on the COES business, where this will be in 2 years.
Were just getting started here.
With patents and over 2 bgpy licensed is all currently priced into the stock?
Are we worried about the debt? Or the the patents being invalidated? Or the competitors recieving patents so they can take market share legally? What me worry?
http://lib1point5.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/what-me-worry-715605.jpg
So to make it simple if you want to extract corn oil legally using the method, it's patented. You must license with GreenShift. There's no way around it.
ICM, etc.. can still make money by selling and installing equipment, like with Green Plains.
It's just the licensing part goes to GreenShift..
Isn't it funny to think how the chicken coup has been raided and they continue to try to find loopholes and ways in or around the THE patent, or try to eliminate the patent altogether. The infringement case should clear all the bugs out and bring order and justice.
My opinion.
Even an AOS patent which, which personally I don't think will happen, will save ICM from the infringement liabilities which are based on pre AOS tricanter systems, which they sold to all those producers.
I think their goal was to get an AOS patent in order to keep all their customers, upgrade their systems to the AOS systems which they hoped would be patented and legal. Therefore only being liable for the time infringing began up to the point they installed the AOS. I don't think the AOS will be patented, it's currently at non final rejection stage.
I don't think POET will achieve a patent either as they are applying repetitive centrifuging to the thin stillage.
Clearly infringing GreenShifts patent, in my opinion.
I believe GreenShifts 858 patent was granted based on extracting by further mechanical processing of the thin stillage by centrifuge and evaporation. That is where it passed compared to why Prevost was found obvious.
Prevost extracted from whole stillage, then the thin stillage by centrifuge and solvent, where obviousness was determined. They did not extract further down the stream by additional centrifuging and evaporation where GreenShift was successful.
"The Method I process intercepts the syrup during evaporation and consists of pretreatment, emulsion breaking, centrifugation (to remove the oil), and solids settling prior to returning the defatted syrup back to evaporation."
http://greenshift.com/cornoil.php?mode=2
Defendants attempted to invalidate GreenShifts 858 patent by trying to assert it's identical to Prevosts rejected patent which was rejected on obviousness. That did not work, 858's method is different and was successfully patented. Their next attempt to invalidate was the Cantrell letter and the 1 yr. rule. It's actually under the 1 year so why even bother? And it's clearly in the experimental testing stage, before the sale stage. So that won't work either. What's next?
So now the other route, try to attain their own patents.
POET and ICM's AOS patents have reached non final rejection stage and under three months to resubmit rewritten claims to again attempt gaining patents. So far all their claims have been rejected.
Looks like they are still extracting from the think stillage with centrifugation then applying a solvent, ICM.
I believe their claims are within the scope of the 858 patent, but with a little twist to try to a gain patent.
A clever way to be able to legally obtain the means to use the 858s patented process without paying the man.
All claims rejected so far, will the be able to rework the claims? I doubt it as Dave Winsness stated he knows of no other means that are not covered by GreenShifts patents. Cantrell and Winsness are experts. How many patents now? Keep up the great work, simply I believed and invested.
My opinions only.