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I don't know too much about Chavez and Valero, but I have heard he likes to nationalize. I've heard about him doing that to foreign oil and mining companies operating within his countries boundaries.
Therefore the lawsuits with major US oils and miners. If Valero does not switch, voluntarily infringes, they will be sued and found guilty of patent infringement, the judge will then make them pay a settlement for damages and and shut down their COES. If they wish to continue to use the patented COES tech they will be forced to license with GreenShift. If not, no systems! and pay damages to GreenShift. Only a fool would sign with ICM instead of GreenShift.
IMO!@IMO!
Either they will not have Corn Oil Extraction and lose out on money, or they will use infringing systems and lose money in a patent infringement suit. There is only 1 system that works, it's patented and it's use must be licensed by GreenShift. Because margins can be tight they know the value of these systems, therefore the rapid mobilization. I think they realize there is too much risk to deal with infringement shenanigans and are looking get set up with the right program and start making money.
As for Valero, looks like the ICM AOS system they chose will not obtain a patent and if they continue to install and use it they will be steering themselves to a patent infringement lawsuit where they can join ICM. Looks like the right choice for Valero would be to sign with GreenShift.
Why do business with ICM when their AOS patent application is at Non Final Rejection and are being litigated for Patent Infringement by a company that actually has 5 corn oil extraction patents. That looks like a LOT of risk and would not be a smart business decision for Valero. So maybe they are rethinking their plan for Corn Oil Extraction. Looks like the industry factors in GreenShift's 20% royalty, when determining how much value these systems will bring. Getting with the program!
http://www.biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2012/01/16/ethanol-producers-seek-corn-oil-extraction-to-offset-veetc-tax-credit-loss/
The article states a 100 mgpy ethanol plant will earn about $6.6 million per year.
With systems extracting at 3% and a crude corn oil market value of $2.80 * this was the # GreenShift provided in their report, I arrive at $8.4 million. So subtract 20% for GERS royalty and that leaves $6.7 million. The Multi Media 21st Century PR went strait ahead and claimed 30% of the industry is using GreenShift's patented tech. That statement leaves all unlicensed users as infringers.
Producers will begin investing in corn oil extraction equipment with gusto, and EPA forecasts 60% of corn ethanol producers will use COES by 2013. The industry knows the value of the systems and is rapidly mobilizing their installation. http://www.biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2012/01/16/ethanol-producers-seek-corn-oil-extraction-to-offset-veetc-tax-credit-loss/
30% of the industry is currently using the COES tech, about half without a GreenShift license. GreenShift is currently litigating the majority of that group for patent infringement. GreenShift holds 5 Corn Oil Extraction Patents, the others have none / rejected patent applications. GreenShift's process is the only process that works, it's patented and it's the only way to go.
My opinions only.
POET's Voila?
http://www.voilacornoil.com/index.asp
Notice it say's "derived" from the "Patented BPX dry mill ethanol process", the BPX patent is for producing Ethanol without using heat. It's not a corn oil extraction patent. It's a play on words, because the system they've been using to extract is IMO! infringing on GreenShift's patents. Their actual corn oil extraction patent is also at Non Final Rejection status as of 11/25/11 also giving them 30 day's to resubmit rewritten claims or receive Final Rejection Status. POET has been producing and selling corn oil since the start of 2011.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=69799678
I think I remember the Voila website used to state it was patent pending. Now it reads derived from the Patented BPX dry mill ethanol process. Maybe the word Patent sounds good, but further investigation reveals it's not a corn oil extraction patent. Looks like patent pending is leading to Final Rejection status.
In my opinion.
Non Final Rejection Status for ICM AOS patent application. This is the ICM system Valero chose to go with. History for the patent application shows Non Final Rejection on 11/12/11, mailed on 11/18/11.
All claims withdrawn from consideration or rejected. ICM has 3 months or 30 day's from 11/18/12 ,which ever is longer to resubmit the application with rewritten claims. So I think they have till 2/18/12 to resubmit the application with rewritten claims that will pass. If not it will be Final Rejection Status for the AOS patent attempt. POET's patent application is in the same status.
In my opinion they will not be awarded patents.
GreenShift has 5 Corn Oil Extraction patents!
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=69799678
Are you Neil? He also posted one there. Good, those are always educational and contemplative.
I'm 100% for GERS, but think how that 30% statement would be viewed by the defendants ICM, etc..
"Over 30% of the industry is currently using GreenShift’s patented and patent-pending extraction technologies". Obviously a contradiction they continue to battle. A bold defining claim by GreenShift.
Are they still denying they are using GERS patented tech and when will they settle?
I'm sure the PR and video were well planned out.
In the positive the stock will trade in the multiples of it's earnings, EPS.
Rise to the equinox then into positive multiples.
Stock price is still trading far below the 1 yr trailing EPS.
Thus it's not at any multiple of the earnings, but negative.
I think the P/E is still negative which is good cause we've bought at basement prices, a rise of P/E to 20 to 40 would be fine with me.
Add Qtr 4 earnings? to 1 yr trailing with around 17 millli o/s.
Iowa? Here's a list of producers there.
http://www.neo.ne.gov/statshtml/122.htm
Maybe the airing will generate a horde of new investors buying in with none or little dilution.
I like to think of it like a tree. How big can it get? How big can Corn Oil Extraction get?
RFS2 caps ethanol from corn at 15 bgpy and the biodiesel mandate is 1 bgpy.
EPA forecasts 60% of corn ethanol producers will be using COES tech by 2013. A forecast doubling the current 30% estimate. No doubt biodiesel producers who are able to use the crude corn oil as feedstock will begin to use it as it presents a cost effective advantage to them. Crude corn oil will gain in usage and demand as the feedstock of choice to produce the 1 bgpy demanded by the RFS2.
Because GreenShift invented and patented the method, and there are no other ways to extract without this method, all COES users must license with GreenShift or fall under patent litigation.
The patent infringement case represents a host of producers who deny infringement.
A case yet to be resolved. Regarding the recent run in the stock price, is it because of the video to be televised or is there something else happening behind the curtain that's yet to be revealed? No doubt the video is set to reach a potentialy huge audience, yet only presents a summary of general company info, nothing really new to us shareholders.. Just the same but being projected to a vast possible audience. The first couple days of the run up was before the airing on Saturday.
"Over 30% of the industry is currently using GreenShift’s patented and patent-pending extraction technologies."
I hope the statement is firm and true, meaning a settlement is inevitable.
The statement reads as the entire 30% is claimed by GreenShift patents, while the defendants, ICM, etc.. who hold a large portion of that percentage continue to fight in court claiming they are not infringing.
Thanks Dhole, Nobody for responding regarding that 30% statement in the 21st Century PR.
30% ?
From the 21st Century PR
"Over 30% of the industry is currently using GreenShift’s patented and patent-pending extraction technologies"
Have the accused infringers licensed with GreenShift?
I'm 100% for GERS, but was the PR worded correctly?
A more accurate statement would say "Over 30% is using Corn Oil Extraction Technology of which about half is licensed by GreenShift. The rest are under Patent Litigation, accused of infringing on GERS tech without a license."
The show will air on Saturday to a potential audience of 100 million.
The 30% statement in the PR seems to assert a final conclusion to what the court case is trying to settle.
Are they guilty of infringement by using GreenShifts tech without a license?
Without a final judgement they cannot yet be guilty of using GreenShifts tech.
If they indeed settled and now have 30% licensed a PR revealing that combined with the weekend airing of the video would be of great impact IMO.
If they have not yet settled, then maybe the PR is just worded a bit off.
My opinions only.
Regarding my last post, to be more accurate they are alleged infringers until the case is settled and won by GreenShift. But of course because of my DD and investment in GERS my opinion is the accused defendants, ICM, producers, etc... are infringing.
I think the PR is from Multi Media Productions which produces 21st Century Business which airs on CNBC, etc..
IMO!
PR states that 30% of the industry is using GreenShifts tech, does that include infringers or did they all settle and license with GreenShift? There's been a news blackout for sometime now. A TV spot like that will reach a lot of people, I'm sure they would be careful in the proper wording of a PR like that.
GreenShift COES tech, they all want one or two. Without, it's just throwing money to cows.
Why waste when it can be converted to energy and profits. A lot of business minded people will see the show as it's on 21st Century Business.
Thanks for posting that, I don't have that right now. I wonder what Friday brings?
The TV show is on Saturday, could possibly influence quite a large audience. The Market is closed on Monday.
Glta!
With a sudden huge influx in demand for GreenShifts COES tech it will be interesting to see how GreenShift handles it, If the EPA is right and the amount of producers to use COES doubles in one year. That would be a lot of licensing and install work.
I noticed that with the RFS2 Cellulosic producers were not able to meet the required production levels.
Only a delay of the inevitable.
100 million viewers possible and 30% of the industry using GreenShifts tech.
About half of that are using the tech without a license from GreenShift.
EPA forecasts 60% of the industry will be using COES tech by 2013.
Looking forward to word from the company on how much they plan to license in 2012.
Shareholder letter and 10k coming soon. Did 2011 end with a net gain? In my opinion I think it did.
Revenues in Qtr 4 should be higher than 3, and rising in Qtr 1 2012. I do believe that after initial startup costs the profit margin rises for both GreenShift and their licensees.
So after initial startups COGS should decline.
Kevin maintains control of his company by a majority stake.
Dilution and reverse splits were stated in reports as necessary to fund operations until revenue from licensees picked up, as it's currently doing. Thus dilution has been slowing and the risk of further reverse splits fades.
The delay in acquiring licensees was because of ICM, and the producers they lured into using infringing equipment.
I'm pretty sure in the past it was dilution / overwhelming supply and reverse splits that caused the decline of the pps and value. It was stated as necessary because they lacked income from COES licensees. A bunch of their potential licensees were duped into using infringing systems by ICM.
Were GERS troubles because of dilution and reverse splits?
ICM violated a non disclosure agreement which started up the spread of infringement.
Companies which should have signed with GreenShift to start with instead of infringing.
There was a patent pending period, but they did violate the non disclosure agreement.
I think that's correct DHOLE.
But at least if according to Ollie, the o/s is still relatively low.
Thank's Sunnybank!
A special Polaris missile launched from the depths of the sea, designed to breach the surface, surpass the atmosphere, Earths gravity and enter Space.
It came from below.
It could be the market is pricing / valuing the stock based on book value, shareholder equity and par value.
The scale still tips to the negative for the first two.
Although progressively improving as revenues and earnings increase and debt is reduced, which have produced the positive trailing EPS. Those factors have reduced the negativity and started the turnaround climb out of the abyss, though not yet reaching equilibrium and breaching the surface into the positive realms of shareholder equity, book value. Liabilities still oughtweigh assets.
The projected potential for revenues and earnings growth is very good and regarding the P/E, the market price is still far below earnings which made a turnaround in 2011 and is in an uptrend.
Future prospects for earnings growth and debt reduction look very promising to me.
I believe the coming 10k will reveal a trailing 12 month EPS growth and a breakthru net gain for the year of 2011. The first year not resulting in a loss since 98'? Yielding a positive EPS.
Rising, yet net worth, book value and shareholder equity are still negative.
But! Licensees are signed with very good prospects of much more to come so we are headed in the right direction. The change takes time. Only announcement of a huge settlement and mass signing of all infringers would cause instant change in my opinion. As settlement should be enough to clear all debt in one swoop.
I look forward to news from the company on 2012 licensees, how many bgpy ethanol this time?
And how were revenues for Qtr 4? Earnings? Have the 2 bgpy of 09' 10' and 11' passed their initial startup costs and can we now expect to see improving profit margins from them? Refinancing the debt? Simply, still subterranean yet rising by the force of which means we have located, installed and grows in momentum, heading to the surface, then to the moon. Maybe like a Polaris sub missile launch, whose destination is space. Equilibrium is breaking the surface.
My opinions only Happy New Year and GLTA.
Is .05 the equivalent of pre r/s .00005 the price of the discount shares?
Volume has been kind of low since after the split.
Respect for who, patent infringers? Because of market share and revenues taken by them I can respect the companies decisions of the past to dilute and reverse split to fund operations and in order to keep the company out of bankruptcy. If one would have done their DD before buying they would have known the risks that were presented and known it would be their own choice to help the company by investing or not.
I can accept that and respect that. So I don't know what's not to respect, except patent infringers. They are the root cause of shareholder losses. Look how much improvement there is now with the 2 bgpy + licensed and the royalties thereof. 5 Patents!
My opinions only!
2022 is 2013?
from the 10' 10K
EPA concluded in its Regulatory Impact Analysis for RFS2 that:
“Extraction of oil from the thin stillage or distillers’ grains with solubles (DGS) streams is a
proven technology that can be retrofitted into existing plants relatively cheaply...approximately 70
percent of projected total ethanol production will implement some type of corn oil extraction
system by 2022, generating approximately 680 million gallons per year of corn oil biofuel
feedstock.”
Then http://www.greenshift.com/news.php?id=281
The EPA Substantially Increases Its Short Term Projected Market Penetration for Corn Oil Extraction in the Ethanol Industry to 60% and 300 Million Gallons Per Year by 2013
“A recent survey of the ethanol industry found that by 2008 over 30% of all dry mill ethanol plants were already extracting corn oil from their co-products. EPA expects that the percentage of dry mill ethanol facilities using some form of corn oil extraction technology will increase to 60% by 2013.”
I think the previous longer term projection was factoring a higher rate of extraction with 680 mgpy compared to the latter of 300 mgpy, the max they can extract from will cap at 15 bgpy in 2015.
Some quotes from the 10' 10K
"Between 2005 and 2010, U.S. ethanol producers recovered less than 10% of the 2.79 billion gallons of corn oil that we estimate was recoverable during that same period with our technologies. The average prices of corn oil and distillers grain from 2005 to 2010 were about $0.22 and $0.06 per pound, respectively. At those prices, we estimate that the market value of the unrecovered oil that was sold with distillers grain between 2005 and 2010 was about $4.9 billion."
* Cows said Mooo, Moo! yummy!
"Full utilization of our corn oil extraction technologies between 2007 and 2010 could have increased a licensed producer’s crush spread by an average of 28%. Increased cash flows of that magnitude provide a powerful competitive advantage. We believe that this is particularly true when the crush spread decreases and the contribution of corn oil to a producer’s cash flow becomes critical to the producer’s ongoing liquidity needs. For example, more than 20% of all U.S. ethanol facilities ceased operations during 2008 and 2009 due to financial stress. Of these, we estimate that only 1 plant had corn oil extraction installed. Conversely, we estimate that more than an additional 35 plants were using our extraction technology during this same timeframe and, to our knowledge, only 1 of these
plants ceased operations."
"The energy savings capabilities of our technologies translates to about $235 million that could have been realized by the U.S. ethanol industry between 1982 and 2004, and about another $735 million from 2005 to 2010, assuming full utilization of our technologies at all dry mill plants during that time."
"The corn oil that is recoverable from the ethanol production process with our patented technologies was historically not recovered by ethanol producers. It was instead sold with distillers grain for comparatively low value. More than about 1.68 billion gallons of unrecovered corn oil passed through the U.S. ethanol industry between 1982 and 2004 – the year that we demonstrated the feasibility of our corn oil extraction technologies. This unrecovered corn oil had a market value of more than $1.54 billion but was instead sold, trapped in distillers grain, for about $680 million.
The following graph shows the estimated historical value of the corn oil extractable with our patented technologies as compared to the value of distillers grain:"
More on Biodiesel facilites
http://www.biodieselmagazine.com/plants/listplants/USA/
http://www.biodiesel.org/buyingbiodiesel/rfs2plants/
Who needs Crude Corn Oil?
http://www.biodiesel.org/
More must read's
http://www.greenshift.com/pdf/GreenShift_Corporation_2010_Form_10K.pdf
http://www.greenshift.com/pdf/GreenShift_Form_10Q_Q3_20111121.pdf